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[UNPREPARED] Why the COVID-19 pandemic was a ‘strategic surprise’ for Indonesia

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Why the COVID-19 pandemic was a ‘strategic surprise’ for Indonesia
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Evan A. Laksmana
Researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Jakarta

Jakarta / Mon, April 13, 2020 / 08:46 am

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Workers spray disinfectant in the Istiqlal Mosque Praying Area in Jakarta, Friday, March 13, 2020.(JP/Seto Wardhana)


Indonesia was and remains utterly unprepared to deal with the COVID-19 crisis. Many have argued that the pandemic is Indonesia’s biggest “strategic surprise” in decades.

A strategic surprise is simply an unpredicted development or event with decisive and transformative, sometimes revolutionary, effects. Some might even argue that it is an unforeseen magical “black swan” event.

But by uncritically painting the pandemic as an unforeseen strategic surprise, some analysts may implicitly or inadvertently absolve the government of any responsibility. After all, they argue, COVID-19 was a “non-natural disaster” that many states could not have predicted.

Clearly this claim is wrong. Scientists, epidemiologists and global health scholars have warned about a pandemic for years. Various public health outbreaks, from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) to Ebola, over the past two decades should have driven this point home.

More importantly, research shows that events deemed as strategic surprises are not inherently surprising by nature. Political scientists

Charles Parker and Eric Stern note in the journal Political Psychology (2002) that strategic surprises such as 9/11 or Pearl Harbor might be seen instead as the victim’s lack of preparedness based on erroneous judgements of whether, when, where and how it would be “attacked”.

Military analyst Ephraim Kam argues in Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective (1988) that a strategic surprise consists of three elements.

First, the event (or attack) seems inconsistent with the victim’s expectations and assumptions. In other words, how “surprising and disruptive” an event is depends on the nature and depth of the assumptions guiding the victim’s assessment.

Despite ample warnings from dozens of countries hit by COVID-19 outbreaks throughout February and early March, Indonesian policymakers were in denial. They publicly clung to unfounded assumptions about the “saving power” of Indonesia’s temperature or humidity. Some even implied that traditional herbs or dishes could be antidotes to the virus while others suggested that prayers would be sufficient to stem any viral tide.

Part of the problem stems from ignorance of public health and science. Consider the fact that many policymakers still refuse to examine Indonesia’s avian influenza outbreak a few years ago as a public health emergency. Instead, they parrot conspiracy theories about the role of great powers in “weaponizing and commercializing” the virus.

Another part of the problem is the recent “securitization” of public health including the pandemic. When security officials manage a problem, transparency, data reliability and open communication – critical requirements in public health emergencies – are rarely part of the equation. That the current administration remains untested in national emergencies and obsessed with infrastructure and investments further suggests there was a lack of incentives in seeking out dissenting voices on a possible outbreak.

The pandemic itself, in other words, was not literally “surprising” but it took us by surprise because policymakers held faulty and erroneous assumptions.

Second, a strategic surprise implies there is a failure in advance warning. The strength of the surprise is often in reverse proportion to the timing and clarity of the early warning.

On this front, it is ironic that some officials are citing “intelligence modelling” as a basis to make public health decisions, even though the intelligence community should have warned us earlier about the pandemic.

If we look at public statements by former government and intelligence officials as well as observers over the past two months, many hinted at conspiracy theories about the novel coronavirus as a “biological weapon”. Consequently, rather than boosting our medical intelligence, our energy is spent on separating noise from signal.

Nevertheless, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo acknowledged that he relied on an “intelligence approach” in managing the outbreak to prevent the public from panicking. While it is unclear what that approach entails, it is plausible that the intelligence community warned political leaders about the pandemic but they failed to respond, or they ignored the assessment provided.

Either way, if we accept the pandemic was a strategic surprise for Indonesia, we have to ask difficult questions about our intelligence assessments in the near future.

Finally, a strategic surprise lays bare the lack of adequate preparations by the victim. From this benchmark, even if the administration had the right assumptions about the pandemic and had listened to the best intelligence warning, Indonesia may still not have had the capacity to respond rapidly.

Almost every major indicator – from hospital beds, isolation wards and ventilators, to doctors and more – tells us that Indonesia’s health system is seriously unprepared. The 2019 Global Health Security Index ranked Indonesia’s emergency preparedness and response planning as well as its health capacity in clinics, hospitals and community care centers at 67 and 69 out of 195 countries respectively. The same index also scored Indonesia’s major risks – political and security, infrastructure adequacy and public health vulnerabilities – quite poorly.

This should not be surprising. Indonesia’s healthcare expenditure in 2016 was only roughly 3 percent of our gross domestic product (GDP), according to World Bank data. By comparison, South Korea spent around 7 percent and Australia about 9 percent of their GDP on health care.

These three benchmarks show the pandemic was not some magical “black swan”. It was a disaster in the making — one that was foreseeable and manageable, even if not necessarily preventable. The government is absolutely responsible for the unfolding catastrophe

https://www.thejakartapost.com/acad...c-was-a-strategic-surprise-for-indonesia.html

Guys @grey boy 2 @Beast @viva_zhao @Beidou2020

what's your opinion about this analysis?
lack of basic science?

 
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Indonesia have 399 deaths, and 380 recovery as of today.

Meanwhile, Singapore
have 'only' 8 deaths, and 560 successfully recovered

Maybe Indonesian need to learn from you guys
How can your healthcare system very successfull in recovering Covid19 patients and teach that to indonesian

@Han Patriot @sinait

Really respect what singapore did
 
I remember reading in the local newspaper that some big mouths over there insisting that Allah would protect the people from the coronavirus and that they didn't need to prepare for it. Well...
 
US, UK, Italia should learn from Singapore and Singapore itself need learn from Taiwan and Vietnam, right? What i learn is how to estrange, tracking and banning Chinese people and also all foreigner who come from mainland to come to your country when you heard some pandemic breakout in China. Thats the biggest lesson here!!!
 
US, UK, Italia should learn from Singapore and Singapore itself need learn from Taiwan and Vietnam, right? What i learn is how to estrange, tracking and banning Chinese people and also all foreigner who come from mainland to come to your country when you heard some pandemic breakout in China. Thats the biggest lesson here!!!

no that doesn't work. Trump do that. they ban all flight from China Earlier than any country but look it has 500k++ case now.
 
US, UK, Italia should learn from Singapore and Singapore itself need learn from Taiwan and Vietnam, right? What i learn is how to estrange, tracking and banning Chinese people and also all foreigner who come from mainland to come to your country when you heard some pandemic breakout in China. Thats the biggest lesson here!!!

Taiwan and Vietnam only have hundred infected case, meanwhile Singapore have almost 3,000 confirmed cases. That's another level.

The Healthcare management system that needed to handle the cases is different also.
Singapore did good in their level, and Indonesia need to Learn from Singaporean because we have almost same confirmed cases.


Indonesia government already banned flight from Wuhan since beginning, but you cannot control other country right?
Every country have different interest with China, we take Japan as example.
Japanese have many interest in China, and we cannot command them to stop flights of their people from Wuhan.

That's why, indonesia PATIENT ZERO is the one who invited her Japanese friend to their house.
Not from Chinese people :-)



Look at this, he think he is SUPAH POWAH in Asia. and can command Japan to stop flights from China :enjoy: @Beast @Beidou2020 @grey boy 2 Pathetic wet dream

 
Most imported cases in Singapore are due to repatriated Singaporeans and foreigners from Europe and USA.

US, UK, Italia should learn from Singapore and Singapore itself need learn from Taiwan and Vietnam, right? What i learn is how to estrange, tracking and banning Chinese people and also all foreigner who come from mainland to come to your country when you heard some pandemic breakout in China. Thats the biggest lesson here!!!
 
Most imported cases in Singapore are due to repatriated Singaporeans and foreigners from Europe and USA.

Yes, Japanese have thousands of their citizens working across Chinese Factory.
Of course they will not stop all the flights from China, and let their citizens stranded.

And the more ridiculous thing is..That indonesian want Japan to stop all the flights from China. Lol
He think japan is afraid of them, pathetic wet dream
 
Most Singapore imported case are type C. Has nothing directly to do with China.

Also now most of 2 millions cases of COVID 19 due to white man land.

White man health system is world greatest threat.

Many Indonesian here hate Chinese too much.



safe_image.php
 
US, UK, Italia should learn from Singapore and Singapore itself need learn from Taiwan and Vietnam, right? What i learn is how to estrange, tracking and banning Chinese people and also all foreigner who come from mainland to come to your country when you heard some pandemic breakout in China. Thats the biggest lesson here!!!
Vietnam does well in stopping the virus because Vietnam mobilizes the entire population to go to the trenches. Hint: the virus comes from China.


52922754_102.jpg
 
Most Singapore imported case are type C. Has nothing directly to do with China.

Also now most of 2 millions cases of COVID 19 due to white man land.

White man health system is world greatest threat.

Many Indonesian here hate Chinese too much.



safe_image.php


Typical third world country who have acute problem with proper education and basic science for their citizens.
Mostly only use hatred and Envy, not brain
cute-monkey-with-brown-fur-vector-clip-art_csp51590516.jpg
 
I don't know...

Everyone seems to feel fine.

Hear and read all the news, but we can't see the virus.

Physiologically it feels like nothing happened.


It feels like coronavirus is just another common disease.

If we see the report, each year there are thousands of people die from flu, another thousands die from a heart attack, and so on.

And then what???


I feel like, we, Indonesians are the happiest and most relaxed people on earth.

I don't know what will happen in May and June...
 
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I don't know...

Everyone seems to feel fine.

Hear and read all the news, but we can't see the virus.

Physiologically it feels like nothing happened.


It feels like coronavirus is just another common disease.

If we see the report, each year there are thousands of people die from flu, another thousands die from a heart attack, and so on.

And then what???


I feel like, we, Indonesians are the happiest and most relaxed people on earth.

I don't know what will happen in May and June...

well i sense some sarcasm. let me give a hint for you

https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4976840/data-corona-ri-kini-dibuka-jumlah-pdp-10482-odp-139137
 

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