U.S. Officials Warned Israel Attacks on Iranian Nuke Facilities Are Counterproductive, Report Says

[Sineva]

This cracks me up,it literally took this long for the us to realise that israels campaign of sabotage and terrorism against irans nuclear program was,to put it mildly ,"counterproductive".
Who knows,maybe just maybe,the west is finally starting to learn that old historic lesson about "unintended consequences",because god knows,its been those unintended consequences that have come back to bite the west on its ar$e time after time again in the middle east.
Sadly tho`,whether the israelis will actually take the hint and knock off the bad behavior,seems........doubtful.

************warning zionist source*************

U.S. Officials Warned Israel Attacks on Iranian Nuke Facilities Are Counterproductive, Report Says
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/report-u-s-warned-israel-attacks-on-iranian-nuke-facilities-are-counterproductive-1.10405407
Israeli officials reportedly dismissed U.S. warnings that attempts to slow down Iran's nuclear program with sabotage are causing Iran to speed it up

U.S. officials have warned Israel that attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities are counterproductive and might be encouraging Tehran to speed up its nuclear program, The New York Times reported Sunday.

Israeli officials have dismissed the warnings, saying they have no plans to stop sabotage attacks on Iranian facilities, according to the report, which cited unnamed officials.

Iran has rapidly resumed operations at facilities damaged by blasts caused by Israeli intelligence, even upgrading them with newer machines allowing faster uranium enrichment, the newspaper said.

Meanwhile, officials in the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command said it is widely accepted that Tehran's improvement in its defenses against cyberattacks means it would be much more difficult to successfully commit attacks like the one that put centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site offline for over a year a decade ago, the report said.

In the White House, officials have been considering whether an interim deal with Iran might be possible in the hopes of buying time for talks and keeping Israel from delivering on threats to bomb Iranian facilities, according to the report.

The United Nations’ atomic watchdog said last week that it believes that Iran has further increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in breach of a 2015 accord with world powers.

The International Atomic Energy Agency told member nations in its confidential quarterly report that Iran has an estimated stock of 17.7 kilograms (39 pounds) of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent fissile purity, an increase of almost 8 kilograms since August.

Such highly enriched uranium can be easily refined to make atomic weapons, which is why world powers have sought to contain Tehran’s nuclear program.

The Vienna-based agency told members that it is still not able to verify Iran’s exact stockpile of enriched uranium due to the limitations that Tehran imposed on UN inspectors earlier this year.

The IAEA has been unable to access surveillance footage of Iranian nuclear sites or of online enrichment monitors and electronic seals since February. The agency’s chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, told The Associated Press this month that the situation was like “flying in a heavily clouded sky.”

Senior diplomats from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia plan to meet with Iranian officials in Vienna on November 29 to discuss bringing Tehran back into compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The pact eased sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

On Sunday, the former head of Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, acknowledged in an interview with Haaretz that Iran has been enriching more uranium since the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

Yossi Cohen, who ended his tenure as head of the Mossad this year, said that despite the assessments of some former senior officials that it is now too late to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state “it’s never too late.”

In response to a question about Israel’s ability to carry out a military strike against Iran by itself, Cohen responded: “I think Israel should have the ability to fight this aspect alone, like we did twice in the past in Iraq and Syria.”

 

[Sineva]

This is actually a beautiful example of one of those "unintended consequences" I mentioned.
Thanks to the israelis there is now no further monitoring of one of irans centrifuge production facilities,in effect the iaea,and by extension the west,will have no way of knowing just how many ir6,ir8,ir9 centrifuges,etc... were actually produced.I guess they`ll just have to take irans word on the numbers,wont they?.....
And its all thanks to israel.

Iran Resumes Production of Advanced Nuclear-Program Parts, Diplomats Say
Activity takes place at site that U.N. atomic watchdog is unable to monitor
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-resumes-production-of-advanced-nuclear-program-parts-diplomats-say-11637079334

Iran has resumed production of equipment for advanced centrifuges at a site the United Nations’ atomic-energy agency has been unable to monitor or gain access to for months, diplomats familiar with the activities said, presenting a new challenge for the Biden administration as it prepares for nuclear talks.


The renewed work has raised concerns among Western diplomats who say it could allow Iran to start secretly diverting centrifuge parts if Tehran chose to build a covert nuclear-weapons program, although they say there is no evidence at this point that it has done so.


Iran resumed work on a limited scale in late August at an assembly plant in Karaj, a city west of Tehran, and has since accelerated its production, allowing it to manufacture an unknown number of rotors and bellows for more advanced centrifuges, diplomats said. Iran had stopped work at Karaj in June after a sabotage attack that Tehran blamed on Israel, which hasn’t acknowledged responsibility.

According to the diplomats, Iran has now produced significant amounts of centrifuge parts since late August, with one of the diplomats saying it has produced parts for at least 170 advanced centrifuges. Centrifuges are used to spin enriched uranium into higher levels of purity either for civilian use or, at 90% purity, for nuclear weapons.

Iran has withdrawn from most commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal since the Trump administration reimposed sanctions in November 2018. In February, Iran scaled back International Atomic Energy Agency oversight of many of its nuclear-related sites, including Karaj, but agreed to keep agency cameras and recording devices in place at Karaj and some other sites.
All of the recent work at Karaj has taken place without any official IAEA monitoring, the diplomats said. Iran significantly tightened security at Karaj after the June alleged sabotage, the latest in a series of explosions at its nuclear facilities over the past two years.

Iran’s production of centrifuges is a critical issue in talks beginning Nov. 29 to revive the nuclear deal, which the Biden administration is hoping to restore. Former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the accord in May 2018.

New-generation Iranian centrifuges on display in Tehran in April.
Photo: iranian presidency office/Reuters

The original deal was built around the idea that Iran should be kept at least one year away from being able to produce enough nuclear fuel for one bomb—its so-called breakout time. Since the U.S. exited the deal, Iran has installed more than 1,000 more advanced centrifuges, which are able to enrich uranium more quickly. That has helped reduce Iran’s current breakout time to as little as a month.

The IAEA has echoed Western concerns that Iran’s nuclear activities are no longer being fully tracked, saying in September that Iran’s failure to restore cameras to Karaj is seriously compromising the agency’s ability to ensure continuous knowledge about the nuclear program.


According to one of the diplomats familiar with Iran’s program, Iran has installed the centrifuges whose key parts were produced at Karaj at Iran’s underground, heavily fortified, Fordow site. The diplomat said there is no evidence the centrifuges parts have been diverted elsewhere but “as the number of unmonitored centrifuges increases, the likelihood for this scenario increases.”

There is no evidence Iran has a covert nuclear program, the diplomats said, and Iran’s core nuclear facilities, including Fordow and Natanz, which produce enriched uranium, remain under IAEA oversight. Iran says its nuclear activities are purely peaceful.

The IAEA didn’t respond to a request for comment. The agency is expected to issue its latest report on Iran’s nuclear program this week. There was no response from Iran’s IAEA mission.

Iran’s work at Karaj creates a new complication for nuclear talks, which are already shaping up to be extremely tough because of differences between the U.S. and Iran’s new hard-line government under President Ebrahim Raisi on restoring the deal.

Western diplomats have warned that without a clear understanding of what material and equipment Iran has now, it is harder to reach an agreement that ensures effective but temporary restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of most international sanctions.


Tensions over monitoring have been growing for months between the IAEA and Iran.

Iran in February suspended oversight of its uranium mines, yellowcake facilities and centrifuge-assembly plants, including Karaj, which were supposed to be kept under IAEA cameras and other supervision under the 2015 nuclear deal.

However, Iran made a side deal at the time that the IAEA could keep cameras and other recording equipment going at the sites and that Tehran would store and hand over the footage to the agency if a deal was struck on reviving the 2015 accord.

In September, after a last-minute visit to Tehran, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi won Iran’s agreement for inspectors to access these facilities to reset cameras and other monitoring equipment.

However, in late September, the IAEA said Iran had reneged on its commitment to allow inspectors into Karaj to replace four cameras that had been removed from the site after the June sabotage. Iran claimed it had never agreed to allow access to Karaj.

In its quarterly report on Iran in September, the IAEA reported that it asked for access to Karaj in late August—a request that wasn’t granted—and was seeking the whereabouts of missing footage from one of those cameras.

On Friday, Mr. Grossi confirmed at a news conference that the IAEA still had been given no access to Karaj, saying it would be very problematic if the issue wasn’t resolved.

However, even as the agency was first seeking access to Karaj in late August, Iran had started work again at the assembly plant, which satellite imagery showed was badly damaged in the June sabotage. Work started initially on only a few machines before expanding.

 

[aryobarzan]

Iran has come a long way....Just to put things in perspective:

more than 20 years ago when Western countries first learned about Iran's nuclear enrichment they asked for all operations to be stopped including Iran eliminating all nuclear Physics courses in their university curriculum!!...

 

[BHAN85]

USA publicly say one thing, and behind table say the opposite to their Israeli state slaves.
Just like 9 years ago, when they almost started WWIII in Hormuz strait.

It's tiring USA lies trying to fool the world once and again and again and again and again and again.

USA is the most liar country in the human history.

Israel state corrupt slaves are prepared to launch a suicidal first strike against Iran when their American masters order it.

Bennett: Israel not bound by any new nuclear deal with Iran - DEBKAfile

With Iran barely months away from “breakout,” PM Naftali Bennett stated on Monday, Nov. 22, that “Israel won’t be bound”

www.debka.com

 

[BHAN85]

I recommend to everybody read Fidel Castro reflections about Iran tensions 10 years ago.

This is from 14 January 2012, but there is a lot more

World Peace Hanging by a Theread | Cubadebate (English)

Yesterday I had the satisfaction of having a pleasant conversation with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. I had not seen him since 2006, more than five years ago, when he

en.cubadebate.cu

Fidel Castro knew the USA empire behavior.

Iran was just a excuse, Israel was just a trigger, for a bigger war.

It's obvious to anybody without brainwashing by American lies.

I dont understand how American can go on fooling the world after their endless lies. After send 2 aircraft carriers to Hormuz in January 2012.

 

[K_Bin_W]

Mark my words nor the amreeikans nor their kosher proxy is attacking eyran... reason, they know what's coming they see writing on the wall. Or they would have attacked long time ago.

Eyran is a nuclear power no matter how you slice and dice it, it has every thing it takes to build Nukes.

The rest is all chakka dance and gungroo noise nothing more.

 

[mohsen]

I say it's a piece of propaganda, Israel has no means or courage to attack Iran. but except this bluff they have no other card in the negotiations.

 

[mohsen]

3 months ago, Zionists' defense minister said Iran is 2 months away from nuclear bomb, now their prime minister says Iran is 5 years away from nuclear bomb.

I think it's clear enough!

 

[Dariush the Great]

3 months ago, Zionists' defense minister said Iran is 2 months away from nuclear bomb, now their prime minister says Iran is 5 years away from nuclear bomb.

I think it's clear enough!

The joke is on us for giving playground to these monkeys.

 

[BHAN85]

3 months ago, Zionists' defense minister said Iran is 2 months away from nuclear bomb, now their prime minister says Iran is 5 years away from nuclear bomb.

I think it's clear enough!

If u read Israeli news from one decade ago u will read the same things.

Israel says Iran is to months from get nukes since 10 years ago.

Remember this from 2012

 

[QWECXZ]

If u read Israeli news from one decade ago u will read the same things.

Israel says Iran is to months from get nukes since 10 years ago.

Remember this from 2012

Yeah. They've been saying that since 2001 at least, when the US started to accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction after 9/11 and later in 2002, their favorite terrorist pets (MKO) revealed Iran's underground nuclear facilities that at the time were under construction. They've been saying that Iran is only a few years away from acquiring nukes ever since. So, this whole thing goes back to about 20 years ago.

The fact that they have jumped back to claiming "several years" from just "a few months" means that they are scared to death and they know they're f*cked. The truth is that Iran is only 3-4 weeks away from enriching enough uranium for at least 2 bombs and at this point, it is only about the willingness of the Iranian leadership. And that's considering only Iran's overt capabilities, and completely ignoring the possibility of undocumented latent capabilities that have been known to exist since the launch of the AMAD project in 1989.

 

[BHAN85]

Yeah. They've been saying that since 2001 at least, when the US started to accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction after 9/11 and later in 2002, their favorite terrorist pets (MKO) revealed Iran's underground nuclear facilities that at the time were under construction. They've been saying that Iran is only a few years away from acquiring nukes ever since. So, this whole thing goes back to about 20 years ago.

The fact that they have jumped back to claiming "several years" from just "a few months" means that they are scared to death and they know they're f*cked. The truth is that Iran is only 3-4 weeks away from enriching enough uranium for at least 2 bombs and at this point, it is only about the willingness of the Iranian leadership. And that's considering only Iran's overt capabilities, and completely ignoring the possibility of undocumented latent capabilities that have been known to exist since the launch of the AMAD project in 1989.

World today is different from decades ago when nuclear weapons were developed.

Today it exists computers.

Iranian scientists can work only with computers and simulators to research how to develop a nuclear weapon, including miniaturised nukes (the only one that can be used in a real war scenario), without touch uranium.

Maybe they have already the know-how.

It doesnt matter if they develop a real nuclear weapon as they know how they can do it step by step (in case of war, it will be matter of weeks develop and launch).

 

[QWECXZ]

World today is different from decades ago when nuclear weapons were developed.

Today it exists computers.

Iranian scientists can work only with computers and simulators to research how to develop a nuclear weapon, including miniaturised nukes (the only one that can be used in a real war scenario), without touch uranium.

Maybe they have already the know-how.

It doesnt matter if they develop a real nuclear weapon as they know how they can do it step by step (in case of war, it will be matter of weeks develop and launch).

Well, I'm not sure if computer simulations can completely replace real tests, but I'm sure that Iran has already acquired the nuclear expertise for fission bombs. Now Iran should move on to thermonuclear weapons and when it's ready, declares that it's a nuclear state. Hopefully, the hesitance of the Iranian leadership to declare that they're a nuclear state is because they are working on thermonuclear weapons. In that case, their silence is understandable.

 

[BHAN85]

Well, I'm not sure if computer simulations can completely replace real tests, but I'm sure that Iran has already acquired the nuclear expertise for fission bombs. Now Iran should move on to thermonuclear weapons and when it's ready, declares that it's a nuclear state. Hopefully, the hesitance of the Iranian leadership to declare that they're a nuclear state is because they are working on thermonuclear weapons. In that case, their silence is understandable.

Normal big nuclear weapons (like first Trinity/Little Boy/Fat Man) are designs publicly known, and NK has demonstrated how easy is to made.

Miniaturised nukes are another story and it's not known how works.

I think maybe Iranian scietists can achieve that knowledge using computers, without touch real material.

NK still has not achieve miniaturised nukes.

 

[QWECXZ]

Normal big nuclear weapons (like first Trinity/Little Boy/Fat Man) are designs publicly known, and NK has demonstrated how easy is to made.

Miniaturised nukes are another story and it's not known how works.

I think maybe Iranian scietists can achieve that knowledge using computers, without touch real material.

NK still has not achieve miniaturised nukes.

Yes. That's right.

Gun-type assembly is so simple that even Taliban or militias might be able to pull it off if they can acquire enough enriched uranium. You just split your fissile material in two halves and keep them apart until you drop the bomb, when the two halves join each other and create a supercritical mass for explosion. The problem is that it is very inefficient and it has a risk of predetonation, although it is a very small chance. In other words, it has a very low yield/weight ratio and its storage can be risky (even though the risk is very small). The main reason for its low yield is that once explosion starts, only a small portion of your fissile material (uranium) goes under fission and the rest of the material expands so fast due to rising temperature that it becomes subcritical immediately and the chain reaction stops after microseconds.

Then there's the implosion technique which has a higher yield but it's much more complicated. Criticality is achieved mainly by converging shock waves that result in the compression of the fissile material. It has a higher yield than the gun-type assembly because your fissile material stays compressed for a longer period and more of your fissile material has time to go under fission before the chain reaction stops. The main technical challenge is to compress your fissile material with converging shock waves and keep it compressed. Compressing uranium/plutonium becomes exponentially more difficult. 2 times compression is easy, 3 times compression is very difficult but doable, and 4 times compression is insanely difficult.

Then it's time for fusion-boosted fission. Based on the details of the AMAD project, I guess this is where Iran might be now. Basically, any country that wants to declare itself a nuclear state in the 21st century should start from here to be taken seriously. The main feature of this design is that a small fusion reaction takes place to provide a high number of fast neutrons. Usually, a mixture of deuterium and tritium is used as an additional source of neutrons in the early stage of explosion. The fusion reaction starts almost immediately after the fission reaction that provides the required energy for fusion to take place. After that, because it all happens very fast and still in the early stages of the explosion, the additional neutrons that are created very early by the fusion reaction will exponentially contribute to the fission of the fissile material, greatly enhance the yield of the weapon.

Now, you can say that miniaturization is basically increasing yield to weight ratio. You can remove or decrease the weight of some components of your weapon. For example, if you use a hollow-pit, you can remove the pusher (which reflects the shockwave backwards) and reduce the size of your tamper (which prevents neutrons from escaping). Also, you can inject deuterium-tritium before implosion to boost the fission.

Can Iran do this sort of thing? I don't know. I think the details of the AMAD project indicate that Iran has already mastered a levitated pit. @Shawnee previously posted a picture of a possible Iranian design in the Iranian Chill Thread. Maybe he can post it here again. From what I remember, it seemed like a levitated pit. If so, that puts Iran in 2003 somewhere near Mark 4 or Mark 5 in terms of US nuclear weapons. But a better question is, how much miniaturization does Iran need actually? Realistically, Iran's only legitimate target for establishing nuclear deterrence is Israel. Khorramshahr can lift 1,800 kilograms to a distance of 2,000 kilometers with a CEP of under 10 meters. That's more than enough to carry a 2 tonne warhead to Israel, and probably even some Eastern European countries. What else does Iran need realistically?

As for whether Iran can do all of this using computer simulations, again, I don't know. But you can obviously simulate the hydrodynamics of shockwave generation with computers and experiment with it without getting caught. You can also insert sensors to calculate the number of neutrons without a hot test. It seems that least in theory, you can get an idea of how well your design should work. But does it mean that it should work as expected? Plus, if your goal is to establish nuclear deterrence, at the end of the day, it is established only when your adversaries detect and estimate on their own the yield of your weapon. If it's a fizzle yield like North Korea in 2006, it won't make them leave you alone.