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U.S Iran nuclear deal: what will be its implications in the region?
Global Village Space |
Jawaria Waheed |
13 years after the nuclear activities of Iran were exposed an agreement was finally concluded on 14th July 2015 in Vienna, Austria which is known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement was an important development in the Middle Eastern politics and altered the nature of long-standing animosity between Iran and United States. Implications of the agreement on regional dynamics in the Middle East and larger non-proliferation regimes would be visible after 10-15 years. Therefore, it is imperative to understand its nature and implication mechanism because this agreement will have profound implications on regional stability, US foreign policy, politics of Middle East, international economics and the global effort to stem the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
In order to operationalize the agreement, United Nations passed Resolution 2231 on 20th July 2015 to endorse it.
JCPOA was signed between P5+1 (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) and Iran as a product of nearly two years of negotiations. It is a complicated and lengthy document including the main agreement and five annexes. In order to operationalize the agreement, United Nations passed Resolution 2231 on 20th July 2015 to endorse it. This was intended to stop or limit Iran of its nuclear ambitions and to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. Provisions on inspection and verification in the agreement place physical constraints by preventing Iran from producing fissile material for nuclear weapons for at least 10 to 15 years.
Read more: No carrots, all sticks: Washington upping the ante against Iran
Assessment of the agreement reveals that it has weaknesses as well as strengths with reference to the central objective of the agreement which is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Even if this agreement deters Iran from its weaponization and the production of fissile material of its declared facilities it does not ensure that Iran would give up on its nuclear ambitions once the agreement ends.
PARAMETERS FOR JCPOA
Possible Military Dimensions, sanctions in case of cheating the agreement, duration of the agreement that has a lot to do with the impact of this agreement.
The assessment of the agreement is to be made keeping in mind the Inspection mechanism which this agreement initiated to keep a check on Iran. Possible Military Dimensions, sanctions in case of cheating the agreement, duration of the agreement that has a lot to do with the impact of this agreement. As the agreement will expire after 15 years it raises questions on the behavior of Iran afterward and the change in the regional approach of the country.
INSPECTION
Under JCPOA Plutonium production is made limited as Iran is not allowed to build heavy water reactors or a reprocessing facility for separating Plutonium from spent fuel for at least 15 years.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action creates a system of checks and balances on Iran by keeping a record of its nuclear fissile material as provided by Iran and also to continuously keep an eye on its underlying activities through International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Under JCPOA Plutonium production is made limited as Iran is not allowed to build heavy water reactors or a reprocessing facility for separating Plutonium from spent fuel for at least 15 years. Research reactors would not be allowed to produce a large amount of Plutonium, the spent fuel will be shipped out of the country for a lifetime so that its reuse could be avoided and any attempt to produce or divert plutonium secretly would be detected quickly.
Read more: Twitter suddenly defines a pro-American mood in Iran
However, there are less robust physical limits on the enrichment of Uranium at declared facilities in the JCPOA. According to JCPOA Iran is required to dismantle its two-third installed centrifuges and must also eliminate 98% of its currently enriched uranium stock. But it also permits Iran to hold on to a sizeable uranium enrichment infrastructure and to initiate expanding that infrastructure after 10 years. Iran will confine the types and number of installed centrifuges that were previously operating at Natanz, will end enrichment process at Fordow, will bound the process of conducting research on advanced centrifuges, will sustain a small stockpile of low-enriched uranium and will cap the extent of enrichment for the duration of 10 to 15 years. (Bunn, 2015)
Objectives
Verification regime of JCPOA has two basic objectives:
Under this agreement, there is no room for surprise inspection but instead, IAEA would be requested to investigate an undeclared spot which might take up to 24 days. During this period Iran could easily cover up or displace most nuclear-related activities. So, this deal becomes dangerous because it fails to achieve “anytime, anywhere” inspections and relinquishes preclusion provided by surprise inspections.
POSSIBLE MILITARY DIMENSIONS (PMD)
Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) refers to the IAEA’s long-running investigation of Iran’s nuclear program before 2003 and its ongoing research on nuclear weapons since that time.
Read more: Russia cautions US: Don’t break US-Iran Deal
Aron Arnold in the “US-Iran nuclear deal- A definitive guide” figured out some Possible Military Dimensions of Iran nuclear deal. These are highlighted in Annex II of JCPOA which includes:
Because of the reason that actions required by Iran were not made public so the provisions of the JCPOA to resolve the Possible Military Dimension cannot be fully evaluated. The prohibitions placed under JCPOA on the possible nuclear activities of Iran will be helpful to evaluate Iran’s nuclear intentions and as possible constraints on Iran’s actual behavior during and after the agreement expires.
In the resolution of PMD, this deal is considered a bit unclear as it raises more questions than it answers. For example, the deal is unclear on whether IAEA inspections teams will be permitted to look over Parchin or other military facilities and have complete access to the scientists as well as the documents. Also, without understanding the full extent of Iran’s previous nuclear weaponization efforts, the IAEA will be short of a sufficient baseline to form justly effectual inspections and verification regime. The Iranian regime has partially answered only one question out of 12 IAEA questions despite the fact that it has promised to satisfy IAEA. There is no explicit penalty in case if the IAEA is unsatisfied with the findings in this information-sharing agreement with Iran.
Read more: American NSA Flynn says we are “officially putting Iran on notice”
Read full article:
U.S Iran nuclear deal: what will be its implications in the region?
Global Village Space |
Jawaria Waheed |
13 years after the nuclear activities of Iran were exposed an agreement was finally concluded on 14th July 2015 in Vienna, Austria which is known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement was an important development in the Middle Eastern politics and altered the nature of long-standing animosity between Iran and United States. Implications of the agreement on regional dynamics in the Middle East and larger non-proliferation regimes would be visible after 10-15 years. Therefore, it is imperative to understand its nature and implication mechanism because this agreement will have profound implications on regional stability, US foreign policy, politics of Middle East, international economics and the global effort to stem the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
In order to operationalize the agreement, United Nations passed Resolution 2231 on 20th July 2015 to endorse it.
JCPOA was signed between P5+1 (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) and Iran as a product of nearly two years of negotiations. It is a complicated and lengthy document including the main agreement and five annexes. In order to operationalize the agreement, United Nations passed Resolution 2231 on 20th July 2015 to endorse it. This was intended to stop or limit Iran of its nuclear ambitions and to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. Provisions on inspection and verification in the agreement place physical constraints by preventing Iran from producing fissile material for nuclear weapons for at least 10 to 15 years.
Read more: No carrots, all sticks: Washington upping the ante against Iran
Assessment of the agreement reveals that it has weaknesses as well as strengths with reference to the central objective of the agreement which is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Even if this agreement deters Iran from its weaponization and the production of fissile material of its declared facilities it does not ensure that Iran would give up on its nuclear ambitions once the agreement ends.
PARAMETERS FOR JCPOA
Possible Military Dimensions, sanctions in case of cheating the agreement, duration of the agreement that has a lot to do with the impact of this agreement.
The assessment of the agreement is to be made keeping in mind the Inspection mechanism which this agreement initiated to keep a check on Iran. Possible Military Dimensions, sanctions in case of cheating the agreement, duration of the agreement that has a lot to do with the impact of this agreement. As the agreement will expire after 15 years it raises questions on the behavior of Iran afterward and the change in the regional approach of the country.
INSPECTION
Under JCPOA Plutonium production is made limited as Iran is not allowed to build heavy water reactors or a reprocessing facility for separating Plutonium from spent fuel for at least 15 years.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action creates a system of checks and balances on Iran by keeping a record of its nuclear fissile material as provided by Iran and also to continuously keep an eye on its underlying activities through International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Under JCPOA Plutonium production is made limited as Iran is not allowed to build heavy water reactors or a reprocessing facility for separating Plutonium from spent fuel for at least 15 years. Research reactors would not be allowed to produce a large amount of Plutonium, the spent fuel will be shipped out of the country for a lifetime so that its reuse could be avoided and any attempt to produce or divert plutonium secretly would be detected quickly.
Read more: Twitter suddenly defines a pro-American mood in Iran
However, there are less robust physical limits on the enrichment of Uranium at declared facilities in the JCPOA. According to JCPOA Iran is required to dismantle its two-third installed centrifuges and must also eliminate 98% of its currently enriched uranium stock. But it also permits Iran to hold on to a sizeable uranium enrichment infrastructure and to initiate expanding that infrastructure after 10 years. Iran will confine the types and number of installed centrifuges that were previously operating at Natanz, will end enrichment process at Fordow, will bound the process of conducting research on advanced centrifuges, will sustain a small stockpile of low-enriched uranium and will cap the extent of enrichment for the duration of 10 to 15 years. (Bunn, 2015)
Objectives
Verification regime of JCPOA has two basic objectives:
- Firstly, it is intended at verifying that particular limits are being observed at stated nuclear facilities, such as Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Esfahan. Also, that nuclear material will not be diverted to undeclared uses in those particular sites.
- Secondly, it will be a foil for national intelligence efforts to assist in deterring or detecting any effort that connects in clandestine or undeclared nuclear activities outlawed by the JCPOA.
Under this agreement, there is no room for surprise inspection but instead, IAEA would be requested to investigate an undeclared spot which might take up to 24 days. During this period Iran could easily cover up or displace most nuclear-related activities. So, this deal becomes dangerous because it fails to achieve “anytime, anywhere” inspections and relinquishes preclusion provided by surprise inspections.
POSSIBLE MILITARY DIMENSIONS (PMD)
Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) refers to the IAEA’s long-running investigation of Iran’s nuclear program before 2003 and its ongoing research on nuclear weapons since that time.
Read more: Russia cautions US: Don’t break US-Iran Deal
Aron Arnold in the “US-Iran nuclear deal- A definitive guide” figured out some Possible Military Dimensions of Iran nuclear deal. These are highlighted in Annex II of JCPOA which includes:
- A program management structure overseen by the Iranian military sanctions.
- Undeclared procurement activities
- Undeclared nuclear material acquisition
- Work on nuclear components for an explosive device
- Detonator development
- Initiation of high explosives and associated experiments
- Hydrodynamic experiments (testing nuclear weapons designs without fissile material)
- Modeling and calculations on explosive compression of highly enriched uranium
- Neutron Initiator manufacture
- Planning and preparatory experimentation for a nuclear test
- Engineering studies to integrate a spherical payload into a missile delivery vehicle
- Studies on a fusing, firing, and arming system
Because of the reason that actions required by Iran were not made public so the provisions of the JCPOA to resolve the Possible Military Dimension cannot be fully evaluated. The prohibitions placed under JCPOA on the possible nuclear activities of Iran will be helpful to evaluate Iran’s nuclear intentions and as possible constraints on Iran’s actual behavior during and after the agreement expires.
In the resolution of PMD, this deal is considered a bit unclear as it raises more questions than it answers. For example, the deal is unclear on whether IAEA inspections teams will be permitted to look over Parchin or other military facilities and have complete access to the scientists as well as the documents. Also, without understanding the full extent of Iran’s previous nuclear weaponization efforts, the IAEA will be short of a sufficient baseline to form justly effectual inspections and verification regime. The Iranian regime has partially answered only one question out of 12 IAEA questions despite the fact that it has promised to satisfy IAEA. There is no explicit penalty in case if the IAEA is unsatisfied with the findings in this information-sharing agreement with Iran.
Read more: American NSA Flynn says we are “officially putting Iran on notice”
Read full article:
U.S Iran nuclear deal: what will be its implications in the region?
