Turkish Politics & Internal Affairs

[SouI]

Berlin to change policy towards Turkey as German citizen is held

Philip Oltermann in Berlin

Thursday 20 July 2017 12.33 BSTLast modified on Thursday 20 July 2017 13.13 BST

Germany’s foreign minister has announced a significant “reorientation” of its policy towards Turkey after a human rights activist became the latest German citizen to be detained for alleged terrorist activity.

“We need our policies towards Turkey to go in a new direction ... we can’t continue as we have done until now,” Sigmar Gabriel told reporters at a press conference in Berlin on Thursday. “We need to be clearer than we have been until now so those responsible in Ankara understand that such policies are not without consequences.”

Berlin has issued new travel warnings of risks in Turkey for German tourists, and Gabriel said his government could no longer guarantee German corporate investment in Turkey after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government accused several companies including Daimler and BASF of ties to the movement of his political enemy Fethullah Gülen.

Gabriel also said he could not envisage talks on expanding the customs union to Turkey and would talk to other EU leaders about reviewing pre-accession funds being offered to Turkey.

The announcement marks a further deterioration of increasingly strained relations between the two countries.

Six people, including German human rights consultant Peter Steudtner and Amnesty International’s country director, Idil Eser, are awaiting trial in Turkey for allegedly aiding a terror group.

The Turkey correspondent of the German broadsheet Die Welt, Deniz Yücel, has been detained on charges of propaganda in support of a terrorist organisation since February. Pre-trial detention in Turkey can last for up to five years.

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, views the series of measures announced by Gabriel as “necessary and unavoidable”, her spokesman said in a tweet.
Reacting to the measures, Erdoğan’s spokesman said the two countries had “good relations”.
“It is not possible for us to accept statements aiming to blur the economic environment based on political motivation, we hope they turn back from this,” Ibrahim Kalin told a news conference in Ankara.

Some leading political figures in Germany accuse Erdoğan of gathering “political hostages” in an attempt to force Germany to hand over two high-ranking Turkish generals involved in last year’s failed coup who have applied for asylum in Frankfurt.

“Deniz Yücel and Peter Steudtner are being traded as political hostages,” said German Green party co-chair Cem Özdemir. “The government must no longer be ordered around.” A spokesperson at the German foreign office on Wednesday ruled out the possibility of a swap deal.

The foreign office’s travel warning states that Turkey had breached its international commitments by denying consular access to German citizens on pre-trial arrest. Even people travelling to Turkey for short trips are therefore advised to register themselves with the consulate or embassy ahead of their trip.

Turkey has described Germany’s demand for the release of human rights activist Steudtner as unacceptable and an attempt to interfere with the Turkish judiciary.

In a statement published on Thursday, Turkey’s foreign ministry said it has kept Germany’s chargé d’affaires in Ankara informed of Steudtner’s case, adding, “the independent Turkish judiciary must be trusted”.

The ministry said statements by the spokesmen for the German chancellor and foreign ministry constituted “diplomatic rudeness” and said the judiciary cannot be instructed or counselled by anyone.

The foreign ministry accused Germany of a “double standard”, saying it harbours members of terror groups and prevents their trial.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...licy-towards-turkey-as-german-citizen-is-held

Germans should worry about the terrorists they harbour in their country rather than terrorists arrested in other countries.

 

[-SINAN-]

Berlin to change policy towards Turkey as German citizen is held

Philip Oltermann in Berlin

Thursday 20 July 2017 12.33 BSTLast modified on Thursday 20 July 2017 13.13 BST

Germany’s foreign minister has announced a significant “reorientation” of its policy towards Turkey after a human rights activist became the latest German citizen to be detained for alleged terrorist activity.

“We need our policies towards Turkey to go in a new direction ... we can’t continue as we have done until now,” Sigmar Gabriel told reporters at a press conference in Berlin on Thursday. “We need to be clearer than we have been until now so those responsible in Ankara understand that such policies are not without consequences.”

Berlin has issued new travel warnings of risks in Turkey for German tourists, and Gabriel said his government could no longer guarantee German corporate investment in Turkey after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government accused several companies including Daimler and BASF of ties to the movement of his political enemy Fethullah Gülen.

Gabriel also said he could not envisage talks on expanding the customs union to Turkey and would talk to other EU leaders about reviewing pre-accession funds being offered to Turkey.

The announcement marks a further deterioration of increasingly strained relations between the two countries.

Six people, including German human rights consultant Peter Steudtner and Amnesty International’s country director, Idil Eser, are awaiting trial in Turkey for allegedly aiding a terror group.

The Turkey correspondent of the German broadsheet Die Welt, Deniz Yücel, has been detained on charges of propaganda in support of a terrorist organisation since February. Pre-trial detention in Turkey can last for up to five years.

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, views the series of measures announced by Gabriel as “necessary and unavoidable”, her spokesman said in a tweet.
Reacting to the measures, Erdoğan’s spokesman said the two countries had “good relations”.
“It is not possible for us to accept statements aiming to blur the economic environment based on political motivation, we hope they turn back from this,” Ibrahim Kalin told a news conference in Ankara.

Some leading political figures in Germany accuse Erdoğan of gathering “political hostages” in an attempt to force Germany to hand over two high-ranking Turkish generals involved in last year’s failed coup who have applied for asylum in Frankfurt.

“Deniz Yücel and Peter Steudtner are being traded as political hostages,” said German Green party co-chair Cem Özdemir. “The government must no longer be ordered around.” A spokesperson at the German foreign office on Wednesday ruled out the possibility of a swap deal.

The foreign office’s travel warning states that Turkey had breached its international commitments by denying consular access to German citizens on pre-trial arrest. Even people travelling to Turkey for short trips are therefore advised to register themselves with the consulate or embassy ahead of their trip.

Turkey has described Germany’s demand for the release of human rights activist Steudtner as unacceptable and an attempt to interfere with the Turkish judiciary.

In a statement published on Thursday, Turkey’s foreign ministry said it has kept Germany’s chargé d’affaires in Ankara informed of Steudtner’s case, adding, “the independent Turkish judiciary must be trusted”.

The ministry said statements by the spokesmen for the German chancellor and foreign ministry constituted “diplomatic rudeness” and said the judiciary cannot be instructed or counselled by anyone.

The foreign ministry accused Germany of a “double standard”, saying it harbours members of terror groups and prevents their trial.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...licy-towards-turkey-as-german-citizen-is-held

 

[xenon54 out]

Deliorman and Co. checking out their crystal balls and predicting a doomsday scenario for Turkey and Turkish economy.

Just check the facts once in a while instead of propaganda from Yeni Akit and co. you dont need a crystal ball to tell where Turkey is heading.

what happens if turkey gets kiked out of customs union? @Bismarck @Deliorman @xenon54 . From what i understand the customs union is heavily in favor of EU also a huge reason why turkey has a huge trade deficit with countries in the east.

Meaning Turkey wont be able to export as easy as now to Europe, considering half of Turkish exports head to EU it would be fatal for Turkish economy.
In case anyone claims Turkey can sanction imports from Europe, no by far not on everything because Turkey cant produce everything domestically its simple as that, Turkish economy is dependant on Europe whether one accepts it or not.

 

[Glass]

What cant turkey produce domestically i know cars and medicine are a problem but besides that? Furthermore turkey is working on its own car brand and with the one belt one road medicine and such could be easily imported til u can make ur own medicine or not ?

Here the imports on a very decent site

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/tur/all/show/2015/

The priority should be medicine,cars and maybe opening up more mines in the next 5 years . For me the turkish economy looks easily fixable but that will also depend on gov+ population.

 

[xenon54 out]

What cant turkey produce domestically i know cars and medicine are a problem but besides that? Furthermore turkey is working on its own car brand and with the one belt one road medicine and such could be easily imported til u can make ur own medicine or not ?

Here the imports on a very decent site

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/tur/all/show/2015/

The priority should be medicine,cars and maybe opening up more mines in the next 5 years . For me the turkish economy looks easily fixable but that will also depend on gov+ population.

Industrial machinery mostly, best exsample are things like CNC machines etc.
Or anything high tech for that matter, machines used in hospitals like MRI.

 

[flamer84]

what happens if turkey gets kiked out of customs union? @Bismarck @Deliorman @xenon54 . From what i understand the customs union is heavily in favor of EU also a huge reason why turkey has a huge trade deficit with countries in the east.

An economical implosion which would make Greek scenario look like paradise.

 

[-SINAN-]

An economical implosion which would make Greek scenario look like paradise.

I dunno, maybe it would be better.....Maybe we should diversify our export market. Focus more on production.....
US embargo after we invaded Cyprus had been catalyst for the most of the defense companies we have today.

Maybe we will suffer in the short term but industry can boom at the end....or maybe it would all be bad, i dunno.

I'm really eager to see what will happen next.

 

[SouI]

I dunno, maybe it would be better.....Maybe we should diversify our export market. Focus more on production.....
US embargo after we invaded Cyprus had been catalyst for the most of the defense companies we have today.

Maybe we will suffer in the short term but industry can boom at the end....or maybe it would all be bad, i dunno.

I'm really eager to see what will happen next.

Latin americas' largest trade partner is by far USA. These things have to do more with location.

EU is a huge market and we are right beside it by location, so it is natural that we are economically dependent on them.

Of course customs union and its 0% tariff policy must have helped a lot too, but having a free-trade agreement with a country that has low GDP per capita it also problematic as that country's general competitiveness would be higher and thus that would lead jobs to be exported to that country.

Of course 4th industrial revolution aka automation will have opposite effects in the future in this aspect. Developed countries will have a huge competitive advantage over low GDP per capita countries.. But as a non-developed country, Turkey, we will still lose to other undeveloped countries that have lower GDP per capita.

So the situation isn't bright for countries stuck in the middle.

We will need LOTS of protectionist policies if we want to develop our own high-competitive sectors but transition to such an economical model from the one we have now will be hurtful.

 

[Glass]

so the most sane thing would be leaving the customs union bleeding and then recovering and expanding ?

 

[SouI]

so the most sane thing would be leaving the customs union bleeding and then recovering and expanding ?

Well I am a capitalist so I oppose liberal economic policies that AKP used in their time. So yes, the current economic situation of our country is not sustainable.

But again, liberals love unsustainable situations for some awkward reason..

So I think we should apply conservative policies and treat every country equally, which means the same tariff rate should be applied to all countries so that our trade would be more diversified and balanced.

 

[Bismarck]

Deliorman and Co. checking out their crystal balls and predicting a doomsday scenario for Turkey and Turkish economy.

Is that so unlikely?

 

[Islamic faith&Secularism]

Is that so unlikely?

I would like to hear the story behind that question, if any.

 

[Bismarck]

what happens if turkey gets kiked out of customs union? @Bismarck @Deliorman @xenon54 . From what i understand the customs union is heavily in favor of EU also a huge reason why turkey has a huge trade deficit with countries in the east.

Turkey export between $45-50 billon merchandise to Europe. Many car producers in Turkey would close its factories if they are not able to export his cars to Europe. FDI to Turkey would also stopped. Sams goes for tourists from Europe. Turkish economy would collapsed.

Maybe we should diversify our export market. Focus more on production.....

You has to should do this years ago. China, India, USA for example have huge markets were you have not significant maintaining.

I would like to hear the story behind that question, if any.

Our liberation and globalization queen Angela Merkel would not allow any sanctions.

 

[-SINAN-]

Turkey export between $45-50 billon merchandise to Europe. Many car producers in Turkey would close its factories if they are not able to export his cars to Europe. FDI to Turkey would also stopped. Sams goes for tourists from Europe. Turkish economy would collapsed.

Well, Russia tried it for year....nothing collapsed...Germany can try to if it wants.

You has to should do this years ago. China, India, USA for example have huge markets were you have not significant maintaining.

Yeah, maybe this will be an opportunity.

so the most sane thing would be leaving the customs union bleeding and then recovering and expanding ?

I dunno but I hope Tayyip an co. doesn't give in to petty threats of Germany.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Just check the facts once in a while instead of propaganda from Yeni Akit and co. you dont need a crystal ball to tell where Turkey is heading.


Meaning Turkey wont be able to export as easy as now to Europe, considering half of Turkish exports head to EU it would be fatal for Turkish economy.
In case anyone claims Turkey can sanction imports from Europe, no by far not on everything because Turkey cant produce everything domestically its simple as that, Turkish economy is dependant on Europe whether one accepts it or not.

I've written many scientific articles about this issue. The Customs Union between TR and EU will never be cancelled. The most important reasons behind this observation are Greece (& Cyprus). Both countries could be easily influenced by Turkey through economic, milliary or diplomatic actions. For instance, one tiny Turkish missile landing in Athena would basically end the Eurozone. No one - not even Germany - is able to bail out a bankrupt and war-ridden Greece. But securities and loans totaling around several hundred billions EUR fall under the protection of various German protection schemes/guarantees. In other words: Germany itself could go bankrupt in case of a war between Turkey and Greece. This is no joke neither an exaggeration of the situation. Various German economists are debating and writing about this risk, e.g. Prof. Dr. Sinn (currently the most influential and famous German economist).

Also, the trade between EU and Turkey has changed radically. It's more balanced than it was couple years ago. If you look at the data, you'll see that Europe has lost in the past years billions whereas Turkey's exports grew.



Thirdly, the EU is sanctioning its 4th largest trade partner: Russia. The Europeans have serious debates ongoing with their biggest trade partner: UK. Do you believe that they will sanction Turkey in these days? We are Europe's 5th largest trade partner after all.



The major problem between Turkey and Europe right now is that both sides don't have adjustable measures to 'punish' each other and than go back to business as usual. This is dangerous.