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Trump’s Mission: Exit Afghanistan, But will there be peace after the Americans leave?

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Under the terms of the agreement, the exchange of 6,000 prisoners and the start of the intra-Afghan dialogue were scheduled to happen on March 10. The timeline was rather ambitious as it was unrealistic to expect that the prisoners kept in scattered locations, would be identified and released in 10 days to pave the way for undertaking the intra-Afghan negotiations.


Though lately certain positive developments concerning the release of prisoners and the formation of a negotiating team by the Afghan government have taken place, there is still no broad consensus on these issues.

A breakthrough on the prisoners’ issue, which has consumed precious time and held up the start of the negotiations, was made on March 25 when the Afghan government and Taliban reached an understanding, during a video-conference, to start releasing those held by the two sides from March 31.

Qatar and the US facilitated the virtual meeting in which Doha-based Taliban representatives for the first time interacted with Afghan officials in Kabul. No face-to-face meeting has yet been planned due to the continued Taliban refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the Afghan government.

Due to coronavirus, when social distancing is being universally recommended and travel restrictions are in place, negotiations through video-conferencing could initially become the preferred way of communication between the Afghan government and the Taliban. It would also be a way out of the Taliban’s refusal to have face-to-face meetings with the Afghan government, which they continue to label as the ‘puppet’ of the US.

The Taliban had managed to keep Kabul out of its talks with the US by questioning its legitimacy and authority. However, the Afghan government will have a critical role in the intra-Afghan negotiations when issues concerning Afghanistan’s future are discussed, as it is internationally recognized and is the only legally elected entity despite its narrow support base.

The release of prisoners may take longer than anticipated and face hurdles along the way. The Afghan government made several demands, including reduction of violence and an undertaking by Taliban prisoners that they would not return to the battlefield, as it tried to use the issue as leverage.


Taliban rejected the conditions and have made it clear the intra-Afghan talks won’t take place until their prisoners are unconditionally released as committed by the US. Another hurdle that could delay the process concerns the identity of prisoners whose release has been sought.

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Trump’s Mission: Exit Afghanistan, But will there be peace after the Americans leave?
 
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