ChineseDream
FULL MEMBER
New Recruit
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2019
- Messages
- 5
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
By Zhang Yun Source:Global Times
The second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump concluded in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 28 without an agreement. But instead of criticizing or attacking each other, the two leaders sent positive signals for a third summit.
One day after the summit, state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) described the summit as "constructive," without mentioning the absence of an agreement. It didn't criticize Washington as strongly as before.
On March 8, North Korean newspaper The Rodong Sinmun said the summit "unexpectedly" ended without an agreement and attributed it to the US. But the article also pointed out that the world hopes "the peace process on the Korean Peninsula will proceed smoothly" and North Korea-US relations will "improve soon."
Then on March 10, US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that Trump is open to a third meeting with Kim. The probability of a third Kim-Trump summit is high. It may not come soon, but is not too far away either.
Trump is surrounded by uncertainties amid fraught domestic issues. But for Kim, such uncertainties have helped push the beleaguered US leader to the talks table. Former US presidents failed to achieve this, and North Korea will not give up such a golden opportunity as Trump wants a breakthrough on the Korean Peninsula issue with an eye on getting re-elected next year. Under intense political pressure at home, the mercurial US leader seeks diplomatic victories to shore up internal support.
But current US diplomacy is hobbled by limitations and a lack of maneuvering space. Trump undid all the US' diplomatic achievements in the past decade. In the Middle East, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and relocated the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and he recognized Israel's sovereignty on the Golan Heights, which escalated regional tensions. US-Europe relations were affected over the Iran issue, trade disputes and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) row. Washington's relations with Beijing also suffered because of Trump's trade war against China. Even US-Japan relations have been tepid after Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and imposed punitive tariffs.
That Trump agreed to meet Kim shows a policy that is polar opposite Obama's. The previous US president refused to talk with Kim, but with Trump the boot is on the other foot. Besides, if Trump and Kim can reach an agreement, it will be a victory worth flaunting and winning worldwide acclaim - mirroring a successful political campaign for Trump. In fact, both leaders need a third summit.
North Korea's system of government is completely different from that of the US' that has led to different expectations from the summit. Trump as US president is still constrained by internal politics in policies for North Korea. Since the presidential election will be held next year, Trump will weigh the chances of reaching an agreement with North Korea before the vote. Meanwhile, the US should also consider the feelings of its allies. If Washington and Pyongyang reach an agreement too quickly, US allies may feel left out and almost betrayed.
But the third Kim-Trump summit will not come too late. Major US diplomatic breakthroughs always happen in the years before elections. If the incumbent president wants diplomatic headway, he needs to accomplish it before election year to leave time for hectic campaigning.
Besides, diplomatic accomplishments can be used as a bargaining chip for the campaigns. Although it may not directly affect the result, it is a trophy to be showcased in future elections. For example, Obama reached the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 and normalized US-Cuba relations.
These did not help Hillary Clinton win the presidency. However, since Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and criticized mending fences with Cuba, Democratic presidential candidates for 2020 may attack him on these issues. Although prediction is the hardest part in international relations, it is still possible that the third Kim-Trump summit will be held in 2019.
The author is an associate professor of Niigata University, Japan, and a senior fellow at the Academy of Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University, China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
The second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump concluded in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 28 without an agreement. But instead of criticizing or attacking each other, the two leaders sent positive signals for a third summit.
One day after the summit, state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) described the summit as "constructive," without mentioning the absence of an agreement. It didn't criticize Washington as strongly as before.
On March 8, North Korean newspaper The Rodong Sinmun said the summit "unexpectedly" ended without an agreement and attributed it to the US. But the article also pointed out that the world hopes "the peace process on the Korean Peninsula will proceed smoothly" and North Korea-US relations will "improve soon."
Then on March 10, US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that Trump is open to a third meeting with Kim. The probability of a third Kim-Trump summit is high. It may not come soon, but is not too far away either.
Trump is surrounded by uncertainties amid fraught domestic issues. But for Kim, such uncertainties have helped push the beleaguered US leader to the talks table. Former US presidents failed to achieve this, and North Korea will not give up such a golden opportunity as Trump wants a breakthrough on the Korean Peninsula issue with an eye on getting re-elected next year. Under intense political pressure at home, the mercurial US leader seeks diplomatic victories to shore up internal support.
But current US diplomacy is hobbled by limitations and a lack of maneuvering space. Trump undid all the US' diplomatic achievements in the past decade. In the Middle East, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and relocated the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and he recognized Israel's sovereignty on the Golan Heights, which escalated regional tensions. US-Europe relations were affected over the Iran issue, trade disputes and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) row. Washington's relations with Beijing also suffered because of Trump's trade war against China. Even US-Japan relations have been tepid after Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and imposed punitive tariffs.
That Trump agreed to meet Kim shows a policy that is polar opposite Obama's. The previous US president refused to talk with Kim, but with Trump the boot is on the other foot. Besides, if Trump and Kim can reach an agreement, it will be a victory worth flaunting and winning worldwide acclaim - mirroring a successful political campaign for Trump. In fact, both leaders need a third summit.
North Korea's system of government is completely different from that of the US' that has led to different expectations from the summit. Trump as US president is still constrained by internal politics in policies for North Korea. Since the presidential election will be held next year, Trump will weigh the chances of reaching an agreement with North Korea before the vote. Meanwhile, the US should also consider the feelings of its allies. If Washington and Pyongyang reach an agreement too quickly, US allies may feel left out and almost betrayed.
But the third Kim-Trump summit will not come too late. Major US diplomatic breakthroughs always happen in the years before elections. If the incumbent president wants diplomatic headway, he needs to accomplish it before election year to leave time for hectic campaigning.
Besides, diplomatic accomplishments can be used as a bargaining chip for the campaigns. Although it may not directly affect the result, it is a trophy to be showcased in future elections. For example, Obama reached the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 and normalized US-Cuba relations.
These did not help Hillary Clinton win the presidency. However, since Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and criticized mending fences with Cuba, Democratic presidential candidates for 2020 may attack him on these issues. Although prediction is the hardest part in international relations, it is still possible that the third Kim-Trump summit will be held in 2019.
The author is an associate professor of Niigata University, Japan, and a senior fellow at the Academy of Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University, China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
