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Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to strengthen as it tracks northward through the Gulf of Mexico and will bring expansive threats of flooding rain, coastal flooding, high surf and strong winds to the Gulf Coast this weekend.
Cristobal does not look like a classic tropical cyclone and some of its strongest impacts will be felt far from the center of the storm, mainly to the east.
Breezy conditions have been reported from southeastern Louisiana to Florida's peninsula. A tornado touched down in eastern Orlando near downtown early Saturday evening. A few funnel clouds and waterspouts have also been reported, especially in Florida's peninsula.
Thunderstorms are primarily on Cristobal's eastern and northeastern side, in a plume of deep moisture. Tropical-storm-force winds also are located mainly north and east of the center of circulation.
A few funnel clouds have been sighted along the Alabama and Florida gulf coasts. At least one tornado has been produced.
Current Tropical Alerts
The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for parts of the northern Gulf Coast from east of Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Walton/Okaloosa county line in Florida, and well inland into eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The warning means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within 36 hours.
NHC has issued a storm surge warning from the mouth of the Mississippi River east to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. This means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 36 hours.
Storm surge watches are in effect from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The Latest
Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph, as of Saturday evening.
Cristobal continues to track northward with a forward speed of around 12 mph, as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.
Where and How Strong Will Cristobal Be at Landfall?
Cristobal will be drawn northward through the Gulf of Mexico toward a break in subtropical high pressure. That should bring Cristobal's center ashore along the Louisiana coast Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.
After landfall, Cristobal will move between a high pressure system and a trough approaching from the central U.S.. This should force the storm to turn slightly to the northwest over Louisiana and Arkansas before northerly motion resumes
Fortunately, we do not expect an intense hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this time. Cristobal's intensity will be held in check by a number of factors.
First up, Cristobal's land voyage in Mexico kept it weak.
In addition, dry air continues to encapsulate Cristobal from the south and west. Water vapor satellite imagery indicates a reservoir of very dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico that is likely being ingested by Cristobal's circulation, a negative for tropical cyclones.
Wind shear, the change in wind speed and/or direction with height that typically hinders intensification of tropical cyclones, is also in place in the Gulf of Mexico as Cristobal heads northward.
Finally, Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are currently somewhat warmer than average for early June and warm enough to support tropical development but not as warm as in midsummer, and deep heat content is lacking in the western Gulf.
All these factors should keep a lid on significant intensification of this system as it nears the U.S. Gulf Coast late in the weekend. The most likely scenario is a tropical storm landfall.
Forecast U.S. Impacts
Even though Cristobal is not forecast to reach hurricane status, that doesn't mean it won't have serious impacts.
Cristobal is expected to have a rather large wind field for a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles from the center.
Furthermore, early-June storms like Cristobal tend to be lopsided, with significant impacts far from the track of the center.
In this case, with a northward-moving Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico, this will spread significant impacts well to the east of the center. These impacts may also arrive well ahead of the center making landfall.
This is yet another case where the forecast path will not tell the whole story of impacts.
Rainfall Flood Threat
Heavy rainfall due to the deep tropical moisture and Cristobal may result in flooding in some areas. The National Weather Service has issued flood watches from Louisiana to Florida.
The heaviest rainbands from Cristobal should begin to arrive along parts of the Gulf Coast Saturday, particularly in the afternoon and evening.
Again, given the storm's lopsided nature, the heaviest rain and highest flood threat is expected to fall along and well to the east of its path from Louisiana to at least the Florida Panhandle, if not parts of the Florida Peninsula.
This heavy rain could persist in bands along the northern Gulf Coast into Monday, and pockets of heavy rain will also spread northward as Cristobal heads inland into Tuesday.
Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley could see up to 12 inches of rain through Tuesday, and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley could be soaked by several inches of rain as Cristobal's remnant moves through early next week.
Storm Surge, Coastal Flood, High Surf
Cristobal's large wind field will drive high surf to the beaches of the entire Gulf Coast, but particularly along and to the east of the track from Louisiana to western Florida, generating dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding.
These far-reaching impacts will increase Saturday night and may persist into early Monday.
The combination of dangerous storm surge and high tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland.
Here are the high tides of most concern for coastal and storm surge flooding along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to western Florida:
-Sunday midday: Peak flooding possible.
-Monday midday: Lingering coastal flooding possible, but not as high as Sunday in most areas, except perhaps parts of southeast Louisiana.
Winds and Tornadoes
As mentioned earlier, the most likely intensity of Cristobal at landfall along the northern Gulf Coast is as a tropical storm.
The most likely area to see winds of at least 40 mph is eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) could arrive along parts of the northern Gulf Coast as soon as late Saturday, but will most likely arrive Sunday, continuing into Sunday night or Monday morning.
These winds, combined with rain-soaked ground, may lead to downed trees and power outages.
Given very humid air, moderate wind shear and unstable air, a few tropical waterspouts and tornadoes are possible from Florida's west coast to southeastern Louisiana through Sunday. These tornadoes should be short-lived and weak.
Interests along the Gulf coasts of the U.S. should monitor Cristobal's progress closely. Check back to weather.com for updates.
Where Will Cristobal's Remnants Go?
The remnant from Cristobal will be drawn north into the Mississippi Valley, then into the Great Lakes, merging with a cold front by the middle of next week, wringing out locally heavy rain along its path from Arkansas and Missouri into Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Major Flood Threat in Mexico, Central America
Some additional rainfall will linger over areas that have already been clobbered with torrential rain and deadly flooding in southern Mexico and Central America.
The National Hurricane Center said Thursday parts of eastern Mexico have picked up over 26 inches of rain since last weekend. Parts Mexico's Campeche state have had more than a foot (~300 mm) since Tuesday while the states of Tabasco and Yucatan have received more than 6 inches (~150 mm).
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in these areas, particularly in hilly or mountainous terrain.
Another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected through Saturday in the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
In addition to Cristobal, this rainfall has also being fueled by what's called a Central American Gyre, or CAG. This "gyre" is a large, broad area of low pressure that often forms in late spring and early fall over Central America and the western Caribbean Sea.
Flooding from former Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and its remnants caused damage and killed several people in El Salvador last weekend.
Amanda's leftover energy and spin played a role in triggering the development of Tropical Depression Three in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon, which then strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.
Cristobal became the earliest-in-season third named Atlantic storm – previously held by Tropical Storm Colin on June 5, 2016 – Tuesday in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Last year, the "C" storm, Chantal, didn't develop until Aug. 20.
From there, Cristobal made landfall Wednesday morning just west of Ciudad del Carmen, while slinging moisture ashore and slowly weakening. It then moved slowly through Mexico's Campeche and Yucatan states, as well as part of northern Guatemala, as a tropical depression, before turning back into the Yucatan Peninsula.
https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...l-storm-cristobal-gulf-coast-weekend-forecast
Cristobal does not look like a classic tropical cyclone and some of its strongest impacts will be felt far from the center of the storm, mainly to the east.
Breezy conditions have been reported from southeastern Louisiana to Florida's peninsula. A tornado touched down in eastern Orlando near downtown early Saturday evening. A few funnel clouds and waterspouts have also been reported, especially in Florida's peninsula.
Thunderstorms are primarily on Cristobal's eastern and northeastern side, in a plume of deep moisture. Tropical-storm-force winds also are located mainly north and east of the center of circulation.
A few funnel clouds have been sighted along the Alabama and Florida gulf coasts. At least one tornado has been produced.
Current Tropical Alerts
The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for parts of the northern Gulf Coast from east of Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Walton/Okaloosa county line in Florida, and well inland into eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The warning means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within 36 hours.
NHC has issued a storm surge warning from the mouth of the Mississippi River east to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. This means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 36 hours.
Storm surge watches are in effect from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The Latest
Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph, as of Saturday evening.
Cristobal continues to track northward with a forward speed of around 12 mph, as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.
Where and How Strong Will Cristobal Be at Landfall?
Cristobal will be drawn northward through the Gulf of Mexico toward a break in subtropical high pressure. That should bring Cristobal's center ashore along the Louisiana coast Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.
After landfall, Cristobal will move between a high pressure system and a trough approaching from the central U.S.. This should force the storm to turn slightly to the northwest over Louisiana and Arkansas before northerly motion resumes
Fortunately, we do not expect an intense hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this time. Cristobal's intensity will be held in check by a number of factors.
First up, Cristobal's land voyage in Mexico kept it weak.
In addition, dry air continues to encapsulate Cristobal from the south and west. Water vapor satellite imagery indicates a reservoir of very dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico that is likely being ingested by Cristobal's circulation, a negative for tropical cyclones.
Wind shear, the change in wind speed and/or direction with height that typically hinders intensification of tropical cyclones, is also in place in the Gulf of Mexico as Cristobal heads northward.
Finally, Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are currently somewhat warmer than average for early June and warm enough to support tropical development but not as warm as in midsummer, and deep heat content is lacking in the western Gulf.
All these factors should keep a lid on significant intensification of this system as it nears the U.S. Gulf Coast late in the weekend. The most likely scenario is a tropical storm landfall.
Forecast U.S. Impacts
Even though Cristobal is not forecast to reach hurricane status, that doesn't mean it won't have serious impacts.
Cristobal is expected to have a rather large wind field for a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles from the center.
Furthermore, early-June storms like Cristobal tend to be lopsided, with significant impacts far from the track of the center.
In this case, with a northward-moving Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico, this will spread significant impacts well to the east of the center. These impacts may also arrive well ahead of the center making landfall.
This is yet another case where the forecast path will not tell the whole story of impacts.
Rainfall Flood Threat
Heavy rainfall due to the deep tropical moisture and Cristobal may result in flooding in some areas. The National Weather Service has issued flood watches from Louisiana to Florida.
The heaviest rainbands from Cristobal should begin to arrive along parts of the Gulf Coast Saturday, particularly in the afternoon and evening.
Again, given the storm's lopsided nature, the heaviest rain and highest flood threat is expected to fall along and well to the east of its path from Louisiana to at least the Florida Panhandle, if not parts of the Florida Peninsula.
This heavy rain could persist in bands along the northern Gulf Coast into Monday, and pockets of heavy rain will also spread northward as Cristobal heads inland into Tuesday.
Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley could see up to 12 inches of rain through Tuesday, and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley could be soaked by several inches of rain as Cristobal's remnant moves through early next week.
Storm Surge, Coastal Flood, High Surf
Cristobal's large wind field will drive high surf to the beaches of the entire Gulf Coast, but particularly along and to the east of the track from Louisiana to western Florida, generating dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding.
These far-reaching impacts will increase Saturday night and may persist into early Monday.
The combination of dangerous storm surge and high tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland.
Here are the high tides of most concern for coastal and storm surge flooding along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to western Florida:
-Sunday midday: Peak flooding possible.
-Monday midday: Lingering coastal flooding possible, but not as high as Sunday in most areas, except perhaps parts of southeast Louisiana.
Winds and Tornadoes
As mentioned earlier, the most likely intensity of Cristobal at landfall along the northern Gulf Coast is as a tropical storm.
The most likely area to see winds of at least 40 mph is eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) could arrive along parts of the northern Gulf Coast as soon as late Saturday, but will most likely arrive Sunday, continuing into Sunday night or Monday morning.
These winds, combined with rain-soaked ground, may lead to downed trees and power outages.
Given very humid air, moderate wind shear and unstable air, a few tropical waterspouts and tornadoes are possible from Florida's west coast to southeastern Louisiana through Sunday. These tornadoes should be short-lived and weak.
Interests along the Gulf coasts of the U.S. should monitor Cristobal's progress closely. Check back to weather.com for updates.
Where Will Cristobal's Remnants Go?
The remnant from Cristobal will be drawn north into the Mississippi Valley, then into the Great Lakes, merging with a cold front by the middle of next week, wringing out locally heavy rain along its path from Arkansas and Missouri into Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Major Flood Threat in Mexico, Central America
Some additional rainfall will linger over areas that have already been clobbered with torrential rain and deadly flooding in southern Mexico and Central America.
The National Hurricane Center said Thursday parts of eastern Mexico have picked up over 26 inches of rain since last weekend. Parts Mexico's Campeche state have had more than a foot (~300 mm) since Tuesday while the states of Tabasco and Yucatan have received more than 6 inches (~150 mm).
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in these areas, particularly in hilly or mountainous terrain.
Another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected through Saturday in the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
In addition to Cristobal, this rainfall has also being fueled by what's called a Central American Gyre, or CAG. This "gyre" is a large, broad area of low pressure that often forms in late spring and early fall over Central America and the western Caribbean Sea.
Flooding from former Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and its remnants caused damage and killed several people in El Salvador last weekend.
Amanda's leftover energy and spin played a role in triggering the development of Tropical Depression Three in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon, which then strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.
Cristobal became the earliest-in-season third named Atlantic storm – previously held by Tropical Storm Colin on June 5, 2016 – Tuesday in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Last year, the "C" storm, Chantal, didn't develop until Aug. 20.
From there, Cristobal made landfall Wednesday morning just west of Ciudad del Carmen, while slinging moisture ashore and slowly weakening. It then moved slowly through Mexico's Campeche and Yucatan states, as well as part of northern Guatemala, as a tropical depression, before turning back into the Yucatan Peninsula.
https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...l-storm-cristobal-gulf-coast-weekend-forecast
