Trade deficit doubles to $24.78 billion, but import growth shows signs of slowing

[ColonelSanders]

Thanks to my great leader. Exports boosted from mere $24 billion to 21000 million dollars from 2013 - 18.

Unless you are being sarcastic, 21000 million = 21 billion is less than 24 billion.

 

[SaadH]

2.5b$ of vaccine imports

We needed to manfactuer these our self may be the sinnopharm or something

But we have zero capacity and this is a shame for 4th largest country
Also uncle sam has stopped over 2b$ of aid that we use to get from 2001 to 2018

Solar panels need to be manfactured here..GST should be added

My brother is in Biotech, started his company and sold it to one of the fortune 100 bio firms. He recently visited Pakistan to discuss with the gov't/industrialists the prospect of setting up vaccine manufacturing in Pakistan. Met with minister Faisal Sultan as well. This is what he learnt on this trip:

All of the Bio/Pharma suppliers/manufacturing is done by big industrialists who are all part of each successive gov't. In other words, regardless of who is in power their gravy train never stops running.

One of the industrialists who my brother reached out for a partnership, told him flatly why are you bothering, there are no margins in setting up a plant Pakistan, we just import all of our vaccines from China and get this from India (via Dubai) and make huge profits on them. Why would we setup a plant in Pakistan.

We need an authoritarian tyrant who has full backing of the military and who is hell bent on taking down this egregiously corrupt system from top to bottom, otherwise no change will come to Pakistan.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Past regimes have ignored energy independence as a goal. Imported oil and gas benefit mafias in Karachi that buy off dumb elected politicians (PPP in particular). Thar coal, hydro power, and solar have been ignored for decades....in favor BOP issues and IMF bailouts.

Recent global energy inflation means that Thar coal and domestic Hydro......are the cheapest energy sources for Pakistan. Solar has been declining in prices for years now. Investment in domestic energy production contributes to boosting GDP numbers and job creation. Extraction of Thar coal went from nothing to millions of tons in only a few years (this can easily go up to 100's millions of tons). 1000's of MW's of hydro power are under construction or in planning. Both made possible with Chinese assistance. ...

My question was and I'll repeat, how many billions will it cost to make their use worthwhile?

Let me give you an example.
The energy projects under CPEC will cost Pakistan more than $30 billion.

Now, where will Pakistan get that sort of money (on top of CPEC) to launch more large scale energy projects that could make Pakistan an energy independent nation?

Its okay to envision all these things but they will easily cost tens of billions of dollars. The money needed for these visions, Pakistan simply does not have nor it can easily get from anywhere. CPEC being the only one exception since the 1960s.

And don't forget, as soon as Pakistan got CPEC in 2013, FATF was launched in 2018 just to make sure Pakistan does not develop too fast or becomes too independent.

 

[CrazyZ]

My question was and I'll repeat, how many billions will it cost to make their use worthwhile?

Let me give you an example.
The energy projects under CPEC will cost Pakistan more than $30 billion.

Now, where will Pakistan get that sort of money (on top of CPEC) to launch more large scale energy projects that could make Pakistan an energy independent nation?

Its okay to envision all these things but they will easily cost tens of billions of dollars. The money needed for these visions, Pakistan simply does not have nor it can easily get from anywhere. CPEC being the only one exception since the 1960s.

And don't forget, as soon as Pakistan got CPEC in 2013, FATF was launched in 2018 just to make sure Pakistan does not develop too fast or becomes too independent.

Investment in ones economy is critical to growth and development. It creates jobs and expands your GDP metrics. If your point is that investing in your local economy costs money so your better off not doing anything.......I seriously disagree. Poor people invest in nothing (only spending for personal consumption) and remain mired in poverty. Successfully people invest in developing themselves (education, learning useful skills...etc) and into wealth creating assets. Some applies at the national level.

One big reason why Pakistan growth has been lower then many peer nations has been that investment has a percentage of GDP is amongst lowest in the world. I'm not talking foreign investment. Expansion can be funded by Pakistani banks, successful corporations and local investors pooling their assets. Getting loans from abroad isn't a requirement.

For example, building the Alaska oil pipeline cost an enormous sum for time. It was so expensive that not one oil company in the USA could afford to build it. So they formed a consortium, pooled their funds and split the risks involved in building the pipeline. The USA government didn't go aboard to allies to get loans to fund it. Displays the mentality difference between "poor" and successful nations, IMO.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Investment in ones economy is critical to growth and development. It creates jobs and expands your GDP metrics. If your point is that investing in your local economy costs money so your better off not doing anything.......I seriously disagree. ...

My question is where can Pakistan get the required money to invest in the first place?

Other than China investing $62 billion in Pakistan in the shape of CPEC, who else is willing to make that sort of investment. No one.

Since 2013 Pakistan has been getting loans just over $10 billion on average per annum. That's pretty much peanuts for a country as large as Pakistan and as under-developed as Pakistan. At this rate, it will take decades to see minimalistic improvements.

Just remember that the FATF noose around Pakistan is a constant threat just to prevent any meaningful investments being made to the country.

 

[FuturePAF]

Energy imports are the main issue....also a big source of inflation. Sad reality is Pakistan can easily increase its domestic energy production to address these issues. Thar coal costs only $20 per ton to extract....far cheaper then imported coal. It can be a substitute for natural gas in many industries. Solar costs are low and resources plentiful. IMO, imported oil and gas should be heavily taxed with proceeds going to boost domestic energy production. Trade deficit would be gone in no time.

Solar is probably best. Pakistan has huge solar power generating potential; in fact certain parts of the country are some of the most ideal solar power generating landscapes in the world. Perfect location to allow a series of Solar parks and a transmission line between Gwadar and Quetta along the N25 and N85 motorways. Also Ideal for cheap electricity to power up industries that can be set up in Gwadar and Karachi as well as Southern Punjab and Sindh, with minimal power loss.

Image Reference: 1. World Bank 2. Peter Zeihan

 

[CrazyZ]

Solar is probably best. Pakistan has the huge solar power generating potential; in fact certain parts of the country are some of the most ideal solar power generating landscapes in the world. Perfect location to allow a series of Solar park and a transmission line between Gwadar and Quetta along the N25 and N85 motorways. Also Ideal for cheap electricity to power up industries that can be set up in Gwadar and Karachi as well as Southern Punjab and Sindh, with minimal power loss.

View attachment 807177
View attachment 807178
Image Reference: 1. World Bank 2. Peter Zeihan

Solar, Hydro, Thar Coal are the cheapest energy sources available to Pakistan right now. They are also very plentiful. Solar and Hydro for electricity. Thar coal can be used for electricity, industry, or production of fertilizer, plastics and liquid fuels. There is absolutely no reason for Pakistan to have trade deficits largely caused by energy imports, IMO.

 

[ziaulislam]

My question is where can Pakistan get the required money to invest in the first place?

Other than China investing $62 billion in Pakistan in the shape of CPEC, who else is willing to make that sort of investment. No one.

Since 2013 Pakistan has been getting loans just over $10 billion on average per annum. That's pretty much peanuts for a country as large as Pakistan and as under-developed as Pakistan. At this rate, it will take decades to see minimalistic improvements.

Just remember that the FATF noose around Pakistan is a constant threat just to prevent any meaningful investments being made to the country.

Why will noone invest?
Because of your junk rating
Why do you have junk credit rating worse then most poor countries like bwngladesh india?
Because you bankrupted in 1998 with all funds eaten(foreign accounts), we also went to IMF(near bankrupy) regularly and predictibly every time
Anyone who invests in a pakistan will be an idiot since the country will bankrupt again in 2028 and is still under near bankrupcy under IMF

 

[CrazyZ]

Why will noone invest?
Because of your junk rating
Why do you have junk credit rating worse then most poor countries like bwngladesh india?
Because you bankrupted in 1998 with all funds eaten(foreign accounts), we also went to IMF(near bankrupy) regularly and predictibly every time
Anyone who invests in a pakistan will be an idiot since the country will bankrupt again in 2028 and is still under near bankrupcy under IMF

You both are missing my main point. The bulk of investment should come from locals.....not foreigners. In most east Asian countries, during their boom periods, bulk of investment come from local sources....typically government controlled banks that can't invest externally or government directed for profit corporations that are investing gains from exports. This is one of the major strengths of the east Asian model. Foreign investors come after the booms had already started.

 

[ziaulislam]

You both are missing my main point. The bulk of investment should come from locals.....not foreigners. In most east Asian countries, during their boom periods, bulk of investment come from local sources....typically government controlled banks that can't invest externally or government directed for profit corporations that are investing gains from exports. This is one of the major strengths of the east Asian model. Foreign investors come after the booms have already started.

You arr missing my point
Noone not even locals will invest given junk credit rating..why do u thing ur saving(which leads to bank privodings investing loans) is lowesr in the region, half of that of bengladesh

 

[CrazyZ]

You arr missing my point
Noone not even locals will invest given junk credit rating..why do u thing ur saving(which leads to bank privodings investing loans) is lowesr in the region, half of that of bengladesh

Again use the east Asian model. With lots of income coming in from exports, business were directed to reinvest in expanding production or developing tech for new industries. From what I've seen in the past, industry owners in Pakistan that have any success, reinvest their profits into overseas real estate. The Sharifs are the classic example of this. Pakistani's just need to do the opposite of what they have been doing.....and things will get better .