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SOURCE: EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
Are the historic and consensus-based relations between India and Russia getting bogged down by disagreements? It is important to analyse each point of friction to judge what impact it has on bilateral ties and broader geopolitics.
For India, Russias repeated delays in the delivery of the Gorshkov aircraft carrier, renamed Vikramaditya, is cause for concern. With costs having doubled to nearly $2.9 billion, there are questions about whether India will get the most advanced carrier and systems.
As India diversifies its defence budget and new competitors like the US and Israel enter the market, Russia worries about retaining its place as the biggest supplier of military hardware. In the next 10 years, India is to spend about $1,000 billion on upgrading its military. Between 2007 and 2011, Russia supplied India military equipment worth $ 10.6 billion, when the total spent by India was $12.65 billion. It would appear that the two countries are on stable ground when it comes to defence. But Russia has to keep its promises in terms of both time and money. Meanwhile, India must review its huge defence expenditure and match it with social expenditures.
Russia is also caught in the Indian debate on nuclear energy. It was the first country to commit to the supply and construction of a civil nuclear plant, at a time when India was outside the Western nuclear framework. Russia and India signed the deal for the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project in 1989. The next phases, however, faced severe opposition and strictures from the courts on safety issues. This means that the Russians have to give additional assurances and factor in a satisfactory liability clause, which will lead to price escalations.
Russian investment in the telecom sector, through the state-owned company, Sistema, was scuppered when the Indian Supreme Court ordered that 122 licences be cancelled. Russia has complained that India changed the rules of the game midway and that this is a setback for investment. However, in a fast-changing world, foreign companies must factor in the the impact of domestic politics and laws as they engage in joint investments.
Trade between the two is below par despite the efforts of both the governments as well as regular meetings of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission. Reaching only about $10 billion currently, both sides target $20 billion by 2015.
India and Russias greatest strength lies in the several points of commonality in geopolitics. Both interpret the world as multi-polar and would like to strengthen this construction because it gives them the opportunity to influence international economic and political decisions in their favour.
Russias recent forays into Pakistan should worry India. It is primarily interested in Pakistan for its role in Afghanistan. Russias greatest interests lie in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Instability in Afghanistan spills over into this region, as does the illegal trafficking and the drug trade. Russia wants to be part of the regional solution, as does India. Both believe that a stable Afghanistan is not possible without one. India should thus welcome any further influence that Russia can exert on Pakistan to encourage a comprehensive partnership rather than geopolitical competition.
India also needs to reassure Russia that its newfound and developing relations with the US would not destabilise relations with Russia, and that it is committed to an independent foreign policy. India and Russia continue to depend on each other in multilateral forums like BRICS and to leverage countries like China. For instance, Russia is putting forward Indias claims in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the two share ideas on the resolution of conflicts in Western Asia. India must push these ideas forward and concrete plans must be devised to further the interests of the people of the two countries.
The writer is with the School of International Studies, JNU
Are the historic and consensus-based relations between India and Russia getting bogged down by disagreements? It is important to analyse each point of friction to judge what impact it has on bilateral ties and broader geopolitics.
For India, Russias repeated delays in the delivery of the Gorshkov aircraft carrier, renamed Vikramaditya, is cause for concern. With costs having doubled to nearly $2.9 billion, there are questions about whether India will get the most advanced carrier and systems.
As India diversifies its defence budget and new competitors like the US and Israel enter the market, Russia worries about retaining its place as the biggest supplier of military hardware. In the next 10 years, India is to spend about $1,000 billion on upgrading its military. Between 2007 and 2011, Russia supplied India military equipment worth $ 10.6 billion, when the total spent by India was $12.65 billion. It would appear that the two countries are on stable ground when it comes to defence. But Russia has to keep its promises in terms of both time and money. Meanwhile, India must review its huge defence expenditure and match it with social expenditures.
Russia is also caught in the Indian debate on nuclear energy. It was the first country to commit to the supply and construction of a civil nuclear plant, at a time when India was outside the Western nuclear framework. Russia and India signed the deal for the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project in 1989. The next phases, however, faced severe opposition and strictures from the courts on safety issues. This means that the Russians have to give additional assurances and factor in a satisfactory liability clause, which will lead to price escalations.
Russian investment in the telecom sector, through the state-owned company, Sistema, was scuppered when the Indian Supreme Court ordered that 122 licences be cancelled. Russia has complained that India changed the rules of the game midway and that this is a setback for investment. However, in a fast-changing world, foreign companies must factor in the the impact of domestic politics and laws as they engage in joint investments.
Trade between the two is below par despite the efforts of both the governments as well as regular meetings of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission. Reaching only about $10 billion currently, both sides target $20 billion by 2015.
India and Russias greatest strength lies in the several points of commonality in geopolitics. Both interpret the world as multi-polar and would like to strengthen this construction because it gives them the opportunity to influence international economic and political decisions in their favour.
Russias recent forays into Pakistan should worry India. It is primarily interested in Pakistan for its role in Afghanistan. Russias greatest interests lie in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Instability in Afghanistan spills over into this region, as does the illegal trafficking and the drug trade. Russia wants to be part of the regional solution, as does India. Both believe that a stable Afghanistan is not possible without one. India should thus welcome any further influence that Russia can exert on Pakistan to encourage a comprehensive partnership rather than geopolitical competition.
India also needs to reassure Russia that its newfound and developing relations with the US would not destabilise relations with Russia, and that it is committed to an independent foreign policy. India and Russia continue to depend on each other in multilateral forums like BRICS and to leverage countries like China. For instance, Russia is putting forward Indias claims in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the two share ideas on the resolution of conflicts in Western Asia. India must push these ideas forward and concrete plans must be devised to further the interests of the people of the two countries.
The writer is with the School of International Studies, JNU
