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Tinman and the Scarecrow

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By Brig® Mehboob Qadir

Tinman is reputed to have no heart and the scarecrow has no brains.These two can only be restored to normalcy by the Wizard of Oz.This is a story in our school books with a moral quite close to the one that unfolded in New Delhi during Mr Modi’s oath taking ceremony.

BJP led by Mr Narendra Modi has won a historic victory in the recent Indian general elections. His ascent to the top of the Indian power pyramid was being predicted by the political pundits for quite some time, just as Congress was sinking deeper by the day into corruption and inaction. Modi is a charismatic person who is also dogged by certain apparently indelible smudges. These include his being thoroughly soaked in RSS’s aggressive communal philosophy and his less than desirable role during unfolding Godra incident and its regrettable aftermath. Simultaneously he is also the sole architect of Gujarat’s meteoric economic rise and wide ranging public welfare undertakings in that state. He carries to the Prime Minister’s office his formidable personal credentials of an entirely self made man, spotless honesty , decisiveness and great administrative ability. His vision of India is an unmistakably Saffron regional power and economic powerhouse well on its way to becoming a semi super power. Therefore no challenges on her periphery will be evinced . Conversely peace will get added emphasis.

His invitation to SAARC heads of states to be guests at his oath taking ceremony was a masterstroke of diplomatic genius , nuanced just like the Viceroy’s durbar during Raj times.It not only gave a clear signal of what India considers as her zone of natural influence but also set a precedence for future events and their required participants. A non attendance by a country with in this zone will automatically be considered as distancing or divergent focus. Pakistan being eager to please was easily drawn into this net and promptly received her part of the drubbing regardless of courtesies of the occasion.

Modi deserves a pat for an artful diplomatic coup de grace that he delivered to Pakistan. He set up a web of environment which fed on our Prime Minister’s driving desire to befriend India , forced his reluctant hand into accepting the invitation for fear of being singled out and when he walked into the snare, sprang a stunning diplomatic surprise by shooting off a charge sheet against Pakistan at a point blank range. The effect was as dazzling as envisaged. Our Prime Minister must have been utterly dumbfounded and missed his already inadequate brief completely. The shock of Modi’s audacious frontal attack unbalanced him so much that his press conference soon afterwards was like a bowl of mashed potatoes. Modi pressed his advantage by ordering a blistering press briefing by his foreign secretary , uncharacteristically revealing contents of a restricted meeting; a serious breach of diplomatic norms it was,nonetheless it served their national interest perfectly. However this shattered the Pakistani delegation’s last standing brick , comprehensively. Had his self serving legion of foreign policy advisers done their proper homework, the Prime Minister would not have hit a stonewall like that, which shattered his nascent dream of an equitable rapprochement so mercilessly. They seem to have fed his cherished fancies rather than presenting a realistic assessment.

The moral and diplomatic high ground which Modi has climbed will be difficult to match unless Pakistan is ready to roll out unilateral concession after another concession. This is the disadvantage of mixing personal equations with the business of the state. Mr Nawaz Sharif is known to have made repeated mistakes on this score during his intermittent tenures. In international relations personal charm, bonhomie and preferential inclinations are only the tools of furthering national interest and not the end in themselves. The way President Clinton treated Pakistan as compared to India, during his mercy visit to Islamabad should have served as an objective lesson in statecraft, so should Modi’s reception at New Delhi.

So much for the diplomatic faux pa in New Delhi.However privately what passed partially unnoticed by most has been equally incongruous, reflecting rather unfavourably on our sense of proportion and propriety. Reportedly ,over the heads of Pakistan Ambassador and Foreign Office, appointments were fixed with men and women of opaque credentials with the Prime Minister in his hotel suite and with some in their houses.By now well known are inexplicable visits by Hema Malini,Shatrughan Sinha, Shabana Azmi, and a media house owner interested in opening a joint TV channel. More astounding has been the visit by the PM accompanied by his son to Mr Naveen Jindal’s house over a cup of tea.Mr Jindal is a steel tycoon, therefore this extraordinary visit logically points to a common business oriented discussion. Customarily diplomatic probity is the beacon of a state dignitary’s foreign visit which we tend to overlook to the detriment of the country.

What in our celebrated naivety was considered a cushy trip to New Delhi which might add to his international stature as a statesman turned out to be a diplomatic nightmare and a fall from expected pre-eminence to an inelegant subsistance. Kashmiri leaders were, perhaps, excluded from his visitors list to appease Modi, so was the mention of pressing issues like river waters,Sir Creek,Siachen, interventions in Balochistan and FATA and Pakistan exclusive initiatives in Afghanistan. This overflowing cordiality turned into missed opportunity when Modi launched his lightning offensive. No body may have briefed the Prime Minister that under his broad amiable smile,warm handshake and a simple turn out, there is a man who is extremely purposeful, steeled in the fine grinding grass roots political mill and nurses an uncompromising world vision for his country.This man is to be watched carefully lest Pakistan makes a wrong move to regret .His opening manoeuvre suggests that he is going to be much more demanding and will insist on results rather than promises. Our nation’s chief tormentors, the star struck jihadis and the like would naturally top his wish list. We are going to have a lot of hard work at hand.

At home there is a need to heed the urgent beat of the distant drums and the rising columns of smoke from the hill tops. It presages serious trouble. Pause to evaluate why Tehrik e Insaf is drawing ever increasing crowds with ominously committed faces from an otherwise listless people in this scorching heat?. Tahir ul Qadri is a far more fiery speaker, very well organized and an astute political adversary .His armory is loaded with far greater lethality. For one he is quite capable of completely wrecking the picnic if he chooses to. He almost did once, more than a year ago. We might as well listen to what he has to say before he takes to the streets and routs the happy carnival. Mood of the masses is beginning to be menacing and these two are baying for blood .Meanwhile do measure your steps well before you set out on another pilgrimage of sentiments in the wrong realm of international relations.
 
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