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Three more Pantsirs were destroyed by Turkish drones in Libya within 24h

Everything looks intact. There is no any sign of burn on tires (which would simply melt in case of thermobaric attack). All we see is just soot:

5fdcec3c-7b91-422d-c21e-ee7f0c2757c8-png.633334


Most probably cause by massive booster fire:

View attachment 633480

There's a video of this Panstir being engaged. The video shows the panstir moving inside the hangar just as the UAV comes around, missing the opportunity to engage the panstir, the UAV drops its MAM-L on top of a Technical. Panstir was not directly engaged - missile tubes are ruptured with missiles still inside the tubes due to massive and sudden pressure difference.

In this picture, you can see the molten technical with the panstir just behind it further inside - from my observation, this was a MAM-L equipped with a 8kg Thermobaric warhead.
Watiya airbase in Libya4.jpg
 
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There's a video of this Panstir being engaged. The video shows the panstir moving inside the hangar just as the UAV comes around, missing the opportunity to engage the panstir, the UAV drops its MAM-L on top of a Technical. Panstir was not directly engaged - missile tubes are ruptured with missiles still inside the tubes due to massive and sudden pressure difference.

In this picture, you can see the molten technical with the panstir just behind it further inside - from my observation, this was a MAM-L equipped with a 8kg Thermobaric warhead.
View attachment 633664
not thermobaric , that would have melt any plastic part in that bunker, for example the other Toyota but the photo explain were that soot come from , the car that get hit burnes and it carried some sort of hydro carbon that did not burned completely inside closed bunker environment.
 
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There's a video of this Panstir being engaged. The video shows the panstir moving inside the hangar just as the UAV comes around, missing the opportunity to engage the panstir, the UAV drops its MAM-L on top of a Technical. Panstir was not directly engaged - missile tubes are ruptured with missiles still inside the tubes due to massive and sudden pressure difference.

In this picture, you can see the molten technical with the panstir just behind it further inside - from my observation, this was a MAM-L equipped with a 8kg Thermobaric warhead.
View attachment 633664
Here is second Pantsir which was destroyed on same base:


From 0:53 sec. U can see its tires are burn.

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LNA's loss in the past 48 hours :

  • 3x brand new Russian pantsir systems (SA-1/SA-22 Greyhound)
  • 2x little used CAIG Wing Loong II MALE-class drones
  • 1x brand new Russian Krasukha EW system

  • The largest military base in the west of the country
  • Dozens of ammunitions boxes and equipments
  • Dozens of mercenaries, some fled, some died
  • Strategically important towns such as Tiji and Badr along the entire Tunisian border, and tribes in these regions

Say goodbye to 2 years old Tripoli siege. Now Legitimate government of Libya is about to launch an offensive operation for the first time.
 
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They'll probably take western Syria but not the eastern part up to Sirte. Then only election can unify Libya.

Why would they stop at the western part? These things generally start rolling slow but when they gain momentum advance pretty quickly. After a few more gains the LNA will undoubtedly face desertation of tribes which comes with actual loss of land control as well as foreign countries pulling out of the conflict thus furthering the collapse of the LNA in a more quick manner.

The only countries I can think that would see this to the end would be UAE and Greece, even Egypt would consider a stable but unfriendly Libya to be a better proposition then having to actually intervine and get bogged down for little to no gain. Considering Egypt's foremost goal is her own security, and weakening Turkey is a distant second term goal, I can see this happening.

Russia is interested, but not hugely invested, and it doesn't really matter too much for her. Syria is Russia's red line in the middle east, not Libya.

France has already gone to "some vague statements" mode and the whole mission embargoing weapon shipments is stalled before it began.

I'm not sure what is going to stop the GNA in the mid to long run here?
 
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TRT Arabic reports below:


Why would they stop at the western part? These things generally start rolling slow but when they gain momentum advance pretty quickly. After a few more gains the LNA will undoubtedly face desertation of tribes which comes with actual loss of land control as well as foreign countries pulling out of the conflict thus furthering the collapse of the LNA in a more quick manner.

The only countries I can think that would see this to the end would be UAE and Greece, even Egypt would consider a stable but unfriendly Libya to be a better proposition then having to actually intervine and get bogged down for little to no gain. Considering Egypt's foremost goal is her own security, and weakening Turkey is a distant second term goal, I can see this happening.

Russia is interested, but not hugely invested, and it doesn't really matter too much for her. Syria is Russia's red line in the middle east, not Libya.

France has already gone to "some vague statements" mode and the whole mission embargoing weapon shipments is stalled before it began.

I'm not sure what is going to stop the GNA in the mid to long run here?
I think it's not like a straightforward frontal warfare against a fixed enemy. It's more like gaining the "loyalty" of one tribe after another in a slow motion by projecting force where it's necessary. Tribes flip their loyalty faster than a flip-flop...
 
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Why would they stop at the western part? These things generally start rolling slow but when they gain momentum advance pretty quickly. After a few more gains the LNA will undoubtedly face desertation of tribes which comes with actual loss of land control as well as foreign countries pulling out of the conflict thus furthering the collapse of the LNA in a more quick manner.

The only countries I can think that would see this to the end would be UAE and Greece, even Egypt would consider a stable but unfriendly Libya to be a better proposition then having to actually intervine and get bogged down for little to no gain. Considering Egypt's foremost goal is her own security, and weakening Turkey is a distant second term goal, I can see this happening.

Russia is interested, but not hugely invested, and it doesn't really matter too much for her. Syria is Russia's red line in the middle east, not Libya.

France has already gone to "some vague statements" mode and the whole mission embargoing weapon shipments is stalled before it began.

I'm not sure what is going to stop the GNA in the mid to long run here?

GNA cannot take eastern Libya without huge military intervention from Turkey. Eastern Libya is red line for Greece, Egypt, UAE. They would openly deploy troops to Sirte to stop Turkish advance if Turkey goes after eastern Libya.
 
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GNA cannot take eastern Libya without huge military intervention from Turkey. Eastern Libya is red line for Greece, Egypt, UAE. They would openly deploy troops to Sirte to stop Turkish advance if Turkey goes after eastern Libya.
Like I said, I don't believe Egypt is that invested because they seem to value stability more then having their say in Libya which doesn't really gain them all that much. So that's why I doubt they would be interested in a military intervention which would be very costly for minimal gains.

The UAE and Greece I agree with, but their military capacity to actually back LNA is very limited. The UAE is all but ineffective save for military assets and money, and money is only a miniscule part of this war. Greece has to project force even though they're close to Libya and their capacity to do so is very limited. Also I'm not so sure they would throw caution to the wind and opt for a confrontation with Turkey in Libya when they're so paranoid about Turkey in every way.

Even if Egypt for some reason DOES intervine that would mean conflict with Turkey - and not sure how well they'd do in that scenario.
 
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