1. TTP tends to switch their goals and motto. In the beginning after Taliban takeover I remember Noor Maseed doing an interview with CNN and he said he wanted "independent FATA from Punjab" playing on a nationalist Pashtunistan rhetoric.
Then, during negotiations it turns out TTP wants shariah law all over Pakistan. On social media we see a lot of TTP guys playing on Loy Afghanistan, giving it an Afghan nationalist flavor.
So which one truly is it? Shariah law over Pakistan, Independent FATA, or Loy Afghanistan?
Whichever one gets them territory under their control.
TTP before Noor Wali was about Shariah law in Pakistan but Noor Wali also made TTP more appealing to etho nationalists.
It depends on who they’re dealing with. TTP media still uses Urdu and speaks about all of Pakistan. TTP in AFG or when facing india or etho nationalists would tow the Loy Afghanistan and separatist stance to get their support.
TTP in front of Pakistanis and other groups would tow the narrative of Shariah to get their support.
Overall, openly TTP is still about Shariah law in all of Pakistan and not separatist. However TTP would do anything and ally with anyone to carve their own territory out of Pakistan.
2. Can it be said that the IEA is simply playing a double game with Pakistan? I mean it is easy to just out TTP like how the outed AQ Zawahiri.
AQ was already flirting with ISKP in Afghanistan. Many foreign AQ fighters in AFG were already basically ISKP. Also AQ doesn’t have the strength to challenge Taliban in Afghanistan. TTP and Pakistani Pashtun fighters make up a big part of Taliban in Afghanistan and control whole provinces/areas. Taliban can’t afford TTP joining ISKP in Afghanistan cuz TTP would take many provinces with them. Taliban already having trouble controlling Nangarhar. Kunar which is still relatively peaceful and with lots of TTP is majority salafi. If they are pushed to the edge they’ll take the whole province with them and turn against Taliban.
Also Taliban expected Pakistan to recognize them once they took power. Pakistan didn’t. Taliban didn’t like us not recognizing them. Imran Khan messed up with his policy on Taliban cuz he went soft on them but didn’t recognize them. Either go hard or recognize them, don’t stay on the edge and be on no sides. Many Taliban factions and commanders have ties to TTP factions and commanders which they wouldn’t break that easily.
But we also have our allies amongst Taliban.
We shouldn’t expect any real action from Taliban as a whole against TTP. Best that could happen is we get some factions to pressure some ttp factions. That’s all.
3. In the event of a wide scale military operation against TTP, will Afghan Taliban remain "neutral" like how Ashraf Ghani's was?
Afghan Taliban as a whole? Yes.
But some factions and commanders of AFG Taliban will support some TTP and some will support us.
We need to remember TTP and Afghan Taliban are both umbrella organizations. They have many factions with different interests and backers which make these organizations.
Or will they actively aid and help TTP in that event?
They will never openly help TTP.
They will never openly be against TTP.
Openly they will just be neutral and say it’s Pakistan and TTP internal matter.
But many Taliban factions would support TTP and many pro pak factions will assassinate TTP and their aiders.
dailytimes.com.pk
