third eye
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http://blogs.aljazeera.net/asia/2009/11/22/they-seek-him-here-they-seek-him-there
Mullah Omar, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, has a free reign to travel around Pakistan, it would seem.
An American newspaper, quoting unnamed US intelligence sources, say the mysterious leader is in Karachi, and travelled there under the wing of Pakistani Intelligence.
The news has ruffled feathers here, drawn a strong response from Pakistan's Government denying the claim, and local newspaper editorials condemn the report as baseless.
But in America the story is getting some play. One senior adviser to the white house, Bruce Riedel spoke to me via email and suggested that it would make sense for a man who knows he is being hunted to hide. "Omar practices extraordinary operational security. He and the Taliban Shura (and ISI) know the NATO command has focused on Quetta so it would make sense to find another hideout, at least temporarily."
So, he could well be in hiding in Pakistan's commercial capital. Many in the US administration simply do not trust the Pakistani's when it comes to the Taliban. They feel that Pakistan has an agenda that is out of step with US interests. The news could simply be a way of putting pressure on Pakistan to dance to the US's beat.
But the news does throw up some interesting questions, Does Pakistani Intelligence support the leader of the Afghan Taliban?
Mullah Omar is intensely private man, very little information exists about him. He communicates with his commanders in Afghanistan via hand written notes, and keeps his inner circle small. In Quetta, The capital of Baluchistan Province, the general wisdom was that he was able to operate freely because of the loyal nature of the people. Strangers stand out in Quetta.
By moving to Karachi Mullah Omar is taking a risk. One would assume that The US has intelligence assets within Pashtun community, and size and nature of the city mean information leaks.
But if Pakistan's Intelligence sources are supporting Omar to the extent that they are willing to move him, then that is a game changer for the Taliban leader. The I.S.I's role in the Taliban's past is well documented, but what is less well understood is the role it plays in supporting the Afghan Taliban now. But why, when the countries army is involved a fierce battle with the Pakistani Taliban would the countries intelligence services support the Afghan Taliban? The answer is may well be simple.
India and America
Pakistan is growing increasingly worried that India has begin to support Afghanistan and eroded Pakistan's influence there. The is also a very real fear that the US will abandon Afghanistan soon. The Taliban then provide a natural buffer to that influence and by supporting Mullah Omar you gain leverage. Omar comes from the countries Pashtun majority who are interwoven ethnically with Pakistan so on the surface at least there seems to be a reason to support the cleric.
This double game is shrouded in mystery and telling fact from fiction is incredibly difficult. Much of the ideas in this blog I have gleaned from Intelligence sources, military contacts and analysts. It's incredibly difficult getting anybody to go on the record explaining whether the ISI support the Taliban or not.
But what is clear is this. Pakistan has a role to play in Afghanistan. Officially at least Pakistan supports the government of Afghanistan, but given the complicated nature of Afghan politics there are some in Pakistani officialdom who believe having an ace up your sleeve is not a bad idea, even if that ace is the Taliban.
Mullah Omar, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, has a free reign to travel around Pakistan, it would seem.
An American newspaper, quoting unnamed US intelligence sources, say the mysterious leader is in Karachi, and travelled there under the wing of Pakistani Intelligence.
The news has ruffled feathers here, drawn a strong response from Pakistan's Government denying the claim, and local newspaper editorials condemn the report as baseless.
But in America the story is getting some play. One senior adviser to the white house, Bruce Riedel spoke to me via email and suggested that it would make sense for a man who knows he is being hunted to hide. "Omar practices extraordinary operational security. He and the Taliban Shura (and ISI) know the NATO command has focused on Quetta so it would make sense to find another hideout, at least temporarily."
So, he could well be in hiding in Pakistan's commercial capital. Many in the US administration simply do not trust the Pakistani's when it comes to the Taliban. They feel that Pakistan has an agenda that is out of step with US interests. The news could simply be a way of putting pressure on Pakistan to dance to the US's beat.
But the news does throw up some interesting questions, Does Pakistani Intelligence support the leader of the Afghan Taliban?
Mullah Omar is intensely private man, very little information exists about him. He communicates with his commanders in Afghanistan via hand written notes, and keeps his inner circle small. In Quetta, The capital of Baluchistan Province, the general wisdom was that he was able to operate freely because of the loyal nature of the people. Strangers stand out in Quetta.
By moving to Karachi Mullah Omar is taking a risk. One would assume that The US has intelligence assets within Pashtun community, and size and nature of the city mean information leaks.
But if Pakistan's Intelligence sources are supporting Omar to the extent that they are willing to move him, then that is a game changer for the Taliban leader. The I.S.I's role in the Taliban's past is well documented, but what is less well understood is the role it plays in supporting the Afghan Taliban now. But why, when the countries army is involved a fierce battle with the Pakistani Taliban would the countries intelligence services support the Afghan Taliban? The answer is may well be simple.
India and America
Pakistan is growing increasingly worried that India has begin to support Afghanistan and eroded Pakistan's influence there. The is also a very real fear that the US will abandon Afghanistan soon. The Taliban then provide a natural buffer to that influence and by supporting Mullah Omar you gain leverage. Omar comes from the countries Pashtun majority who are interwoven ethnically with Pakistan so on the surface at least there seems to be a reason to support the cleric.
This double game is shrouded in mystery and telling fact from fiction is incredibly difficult. Much of the ideas in this blog I have gleaned from Intelligence sources, military contacts and analysts. It's incredibly difficult getting anybody to go on the record explaining whether the ISI support the Taliban or not.
But what is clear is this. Pakistan has a role to play in Afghanistan. Officially at least Pakistan supports the government of Afghanistan, but given the complicated nature of Afghan politics there are some in Pakistani officialdom who believe having an ace up your sleeve is not a bad idea, even if that ace is the Taliban.
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