The Weakness of Xi Jinping - How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future

The Weakness of Xi Jinping

Hubris and paranoia threaten China’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

@Paul2
What do you think will happen in the next months, Xi will take all?

 

[redtom]

I really don't understand why people are so ignorant.

XI removes term limits for the national chairman. The real meaning of this change is to make politics more transparent. There are three power entities in Chinese politics, the CPC, the government, and the National People's Congress. The national chairman is only an honorary position, and the real power of XI comes from the general secretary of the CPC rather than the national chairman. The general secretary of the CPC has no term limit. Jiang served for 13 years.

The real significance of this decision is that.

1. There is no longer a chairman without real power, causing confusion in diplomacy and public opinion.
2. The army has completely left politics. There will be no political mistakes in the replacement of the CPC general secretary by the chairman of the Military Commission.

In 1989 deng made a very serious political mistake. He overthrew Zhao, who was the general secretary of the CPC, as chairman of the Military Commission. This violates CPC's political discipline. This is also Deng far inferior to Mao's performance. mao adheres to the principles of CPC at all times.

 

[Leishangthem]

CCP has very perfect rules for building and promoting the echelon of officials. The problem now is that someone wants to break this rule.

I personally don't see any problem with 3 terms as long as the leader is able to deliver, chances are even Modi might have a longer reign than Xi Jinping. India has no term limit.
If the council members feel xi is the most suitable leader who is inexperienced folk to complain?As long as future leaders are trained in a necessary manner.And if future leaders gets trained in sufficient manner.

Hu was weaker so the west liked Hu,Xi served his purpose and paved the way to secure China's sovereignty and future development in BRI, Made in China 2025, and so on, before Xi ,China wasn't seen as the global superpower . Xi stemmed out corruption to great extent, corruption is single most significant threat to CPC authority. XI unified the nation like never before in the 21st century.
Xi's real estate policies affected the economy but he also reined in some of the stemming risk of the Lehmann brothers like the scenario.
Xi is clearly the most consequential leader in the 21st century and the most important figure from the communist party of china since Deng. Idk if Xi third term would be so bad.

Now even the zero covid lockdown doesn't seem so bad if we consider how many lives it saved and just in time China is now on the cusp of the inhale vaccine, it's like Xi planned it all along.
Xi can't just mimic the west and open the nation for civilians to die,he has to show precedent for better ways,he was waiting for something revolutionary like the inhaled vaccine.

And clearly, the times have passed for China to solely focus on economic relation with west , and the west and their vassals have been mobilized to contain china. China has to take a new approach with dual focus on geopolitical power & economy. China has to pace itself , and not be too aggressive to ward off western markets while achieving its geopolitical and economic goals.

I can't find many mistakes from Xi,other than making it too obvious for west that China is rising .

Xi is no.1 leader in chinese history in my personal opinion.

 

[kankan326]

If Franklin Roosevelt left White House after 8 years presidency, US may not become the most powerful country after ww2. If Bill Clinton had his 3rd term of presidency, China may never become such a threat to US.

Next 5 years will be China's most crucial time. China needs an experienced and strong leader at this historic turn point. Xi's third term was not decided by himself but by the CCP leaders group. Collective leadership is more important than anything.

 

[beijingwalker]

You are lucky to be able to say this due to Canadian connection and location.
Poor chaps with both .CN flags can’t say a word against Papa Xi. He is their supreme ruler for life who can do no bad.

You are just being stupid, for years everyone here knows I oppose Xi's third term in this forum, I also voice this oppostion on several Chinese social media platforms like many Chinese netizens do, anything bad happened to me?

 

[etylo]

If Franklin Roosevelt left White House after 8 years presidency, US may not become the most powerful country after ww2. If Bill Clinton had his 3rd term of presidency, China may never become such a threat to US.

Next 5 years will be China's most crucial time. China needs an experienced and strong leader at this historic turn point. Xi's third term was not decided by himself but by the CCP leaders group. Collective leadership is more important than anything.

You are right on that.

 

[beijingwalker]

There is no definite rule in the world, only the US most famously adheres to such practice of 2 cosecutive terms for its president, and maybe a third term after a break. Germanys Merkel, Britains Thatcher and Canadas Pieere Trudeau all have more than 3 terms as prime minister. Indeed, most parliamentary countries would allow their prime ministers to have more than 2 terms.

China doesn't have enough check and balance in her leaders' selection system, a term limit serves perfectly to compensate this weakness. It may make some very capable leaders to retire prematurely but for this whole system to work, it must be stuck to unconditionally. China has 1.4 billion people, I don't think anyone can be so good to the point of not being able to be replaced for 10 years.

 

[etylo]

You are just being stupid, for years everyone here knows I oppose Xi's third term in this forum, I also voice this oppostion on several Chinese social media platforms like many Chinese netizens do, anything bad happened to me?

With Indians low IQ and their weird Hindu logic,
many times it feels must waste of time to talk to them.

China doesn't have enough check and balance in her leaders' selection system, a term limit serves perfectly to compensate this weakness. It may make some very capable leaders to retire prematurely but for this whole system to work, it must be stuck to unconditionally. China has 1.4 billion people, I don't think anyone can be so good to the point of not being able to be replaced for 10 years.

Sometimes, the leader does matter. Example, if its not for Deng to came at that time, china might be in a totally different path now, different from the reform and open up policies.

I guess its up to the members of central committe of CCP at the CCP congress meeting to decide if they are going to give Xi a third term.

 

[kankan326]

You are right on that.

I don't care about breaking two terms limit rule. Rules serve for national interest. Mongol Empire missed several critical chances to conquer Europe and Middle East because of leadership changes. The next 5 years will be most important period of time for China since 1978's Deng's reform. China will face US and its ally serious challenges in next 5 years. China probably will reunify Taiwan by force in next 5 years because it's very likely US will cross the red line soon . China will overcome economic problems at this big pandemic and recession era in next 5 years. China will make breakthroughs in semi-conductor industry. How could a rookie handle all these never seen challenges? It is more like a burden than a bonus for Xi to lead China in next 5 years.

 

[JSCh]

I don't really care that much about whether Xi continuing third term or not, but it look very likely to happen because not much chance for alternative.

What I think Xi is trying to do is to reform and normalize the leadership change policy. People said that there was an existing rules but it is not really true as almost every change of leadership prior to now has been different and never truely formalized. China is a big country, its functioning really should not depend that much on the personalities of the head of gov't/state, I just hope that the 20th could settle it.

This has been a recurrent problem through out China history, could be really disstabilizing. The thing is, traditionally top leadership in China is probably too powerful and being seen as winner takes all therefore competition are fierce. Reducing the concentration of power would lessen that competition, but in times when external threat are large, there is a need for centralize control inorder to met that threat.

As for Xi, I think he is more visionary that his precedensors. He initiate more policies and did a lot more reform. Some of those might not be liken by everyone but they are reform nontheless. I like how he united China, a sense of belonging/identity that went down to the people's level.

As to the cult of personality criticism, yes some of it I think is a bit too much, but I don't see anything that is actually done by him. Beside the Xi thought which is really not a cult of personality but probably would be seem as such by the masses. I think Xi is more fair and tolerant then it looks, by that I mean in the balancing and collectiveness among the top leadership.

 

[etylo]

I don't care about breaking two terms limit rule. Rules serve for national interest. Mongol Empire missed several critical chances to conquer Europe and Middle East because of leadership changes. The next 5 years will be most important period of time for China since 1978's Deng's reform. China will face US and its ally serious challenges in next 5 years. China probably will reunify Taiwan by force in next 5 years because it's very likely US will cross the red line soon . China will overcome economic problems at this big pandemic and recession era in next 5 years. China will make breakthroughs in semi-conductor industry. How could a rookie handle all these never seen challenges? It is more like a burden than a bonus for Xi to lead China in next 5 years.

Exactly, china will need strong leader to deal with the meancing US esp the coming confrontation with US over Taiwan crisis and unification undertaking in the coming 5 years. China also need a strong and transformational leader to take china into next level of development in economy, clean high technology and society. Xi is stronger, forceful and more visionary than Jiang and Hu. But, the west doesnt like what Xi is doing for china and the world, thats all the fuss and its wests problem only.

 

[lcloo]

As a foreigner in China for nearly a decade in 2000s, the levels of corruption in Shenzhen that I personally witnessed made me wonder if it keep on going further, would PRC follows the fate of late Qing dynasty's collapse in 1900s?

Then the anti-corruption actions changed my thoughts. And this include the action against the corrupted high level generals in PLA, including former chief of general staff of PLA.

A mediocre leader should be given a maximum of 2 terms, a good leader should be given a chance for the third term. This is not an isolated case. It happens everywhere in the World.

Angela Dorothea Merkel served as the chancellor of Germany from 2005 to 2021, that is more than 3 terms.

Power does lead to corruption, there has to be a safeguard on this. The current "Xi's Thought" does points to Xi's ambitions. However thus far, I believe the Pro is still more than Con, especially China's current geopolitical tension vs US lead countries and Taiwan. You don't change your top leader during crisis or near-crisis time, if he proved to be capable.

3 terms or "2 terms plus" should be the maximum.

 

[MH.Yang]

Well functioning rules should not be broken. Even better leaders are not worth breaking the rules for him.

Besides his outstanding achievements in anti-corruption, I don't think Xi has any outstanding performance in other aspects.

I don't care about the so-called pressure from western countries. In fact, we all know that these pressures can't hurt us. We do not need so-called tough leaders.

We just need to continuously improve our country and do our own work well. CCP can always provide us with new and better leaders.

 

[qwerrty]

the writer is just jealous of xi

Xi's the One eBook : Coupland, Sandra: Amazon.com.au: Kindle Store

Xi's the One eBook : Coupland, Sandra: Amazon.com.au: Kindle Store

www.amazon.com.au

 

[kankan326]

Well functioning rules should not be broken. Even better leaders are not worth breaking the rules for him.

Besides his outstanding achievements in anti-corruption, I don't think Xi has any outstanding performance in other aspects.

I don't care about the so-called pressure from western countries. In fact, we all know that these pressures can't hurt us. We do not need so-called tough leaders.

We just need to continuously improve our country and do our own work well. CCP can always provide us with new and better leaders.

Anti-corruption is an extremely difficult task even Deng dared not to touch it. It needs courage and moral strength to fulfil this task. Few politician around the world and through the history made the feat Xi did. Anti-corruption is not a single event. It paved way for the following years China development. You definitely have no idea how lucky China was for it was Xi, not other leader like Bo Xilai ruled China in the second decade of 21th century.

 

[VkdIndian]

We just need to continuously improve our country and do our own work well. CCP can always provide us with new and better leaders.

I have had many disagreements with you in the past.
Hats off to you for accepting and writing that I haven’t seen any dual .CN flag saying ever. Very brave of you.

Nations shouldn't depend on personalities. I am sure that China has enough capability to give as good or a better leader than Xi.

Xi did do some good work. But now China needs to move over from Xi for a change that might bring fresh ideas on governance.