The Tesla Bubble Is Bursting

[Arron Bert]

I think Tesla is growing and will also soon be selling cars all across the world.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Just wait untill Suzuki Mehran makes a debut in USA , as per our Pakistani Suzuki manufacturer

Gajab , ho jaiga

 

[JonAsad]

Tesla is great- i was thinking of buying one when its available in mid east-

 

[C130]

wait til the Gigafactory is complete we'll see about a bubble.

if anything Tesla could outsource it's fuel cells to other start ups.

not like Elon Musk is looking for a monopoly

 

[senheiser]

lol u mad?

 

[Jai Bharat]

wait til the Gigafactory is complete we'll see about a bubble.

if anything Tesla could outsource it's fuel cells to other start ups.

not like Elon Musk is looking for a monopoly

I don't think Tesla cars use fuel cells. Just batteries. Gigafactory 1 will take care of everything when it launches in 2017.

 

[Aestu]

Tesla is a scam. The company has never turned a profit and never will. Elon Musk is a cocaine addict with a made-up name who mooches off every government program there is. No successful consumer innovation, from the Model T to the Apple II, has ever started at the top and worked its way down. Successful consumer innovations start by building a useful product as minimalist as possible and pricing it so the greatest possible number of ordinary people can afford it.

Tesla is a dead end and needs to die and get out of the way so real innovators can make real cars. If the bubble is bursting, that's great news for everyone else.

I don't think Tesla cars use fuel cells. Just batteries. Gigafactory 1 will take care of everything when it launches in 2017.

Elon Musk the cocaine addict has a pathological hatred of fuel cells. He promotes change by insisting the most clean, efficient, and economical energy storage system mathematically possible is heresy and anyone who suggests fuel cells are a good idea whose time has come is a heretic and should be stoned to death.

I think Tesla is growing and will also soon be selling cars all across the world.

If you can't sell an expensive American car to the country with the highest per capita GDP in the world, who the heck are you going to sell them to? Indians? Germans? Russians?

 

[Jai Bharat]

Tesla is a dead end and needs to die and get out of the way so real innovators can make real cars. If the bubble is bursting, that's great news for everyone else.

The 'real innovators' are all making electric cars now though. BMW themselves are stating the i3 series is a huge success and that they will scale up all future cars from there, and that EV is the future for them.

Future BMW 3-series to lead EV revolution | Autocar

Tesla is a scam. The company has never turned a profit and never will. Elon Musk is a cocaine addict with a made-up name who mooches off every government program there is. No successful consumer innovation, from the Model T to the Apple II, has ever started at the top and worked its way down. Successful consumer innovations start by building a useful product as minimalist as possible and pricing it so the greatest possible number of ordinary people can afford it.

Amazon has never made a profit either and the iPhone wasn't exactly cheap when it launched either, many competitors like Ballmer of Microsoft simply laughed it off as being overpriced. Look at where we are now with iPhones making up 92% of smarphone profits last quarter.

Once the Tesla Model III consumer model hits in 2017, EV cars are going to go mainstream.

Elon Musk the cocaine addict has a pathological hatred of fuel cells. He promotes change by insisting the most clean, efficient, and economical energy storage system mathematically possible is heresy and anyone who suggests fuel cells are a good idea whose time has come is a heretic and should be stoned to death.

Fuel cells are worthless. Nobody wants to use Hydrogen. Pure hydrogen gas is far too reactive to be found in natural environments, unlike natural gas. It would have to be made from using techniques like water electrolysis, a process that is inefficient and expensive. Not to mention hydrogen gas is actually more reactive and dangerous than oil.

Fuel cell Chevy Volt is dead, the new thing for GM is EV Chevy Bolt. The only ones pushing the dead concept of fuel cells are Toyota and Honda.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Hey @Viper0011. you want to chime in on this thread

 

[Aestu]

The 'real innovators' are all making electric cars now though. BMW themselves are stating the i3 series is a huge success and that they will scale up all future cars from there, and that EV is the future for them.

Okay...so what's Tesla have to offer that BMW doesn't?

Amazon has never made a profit either and the iPhone wasn't exactly cheap when it launched either, many competitors like Ballmer of Microsoft simply laughed it off as being overpriced. Look at where we are now with iPhones making up 92% of smarphone profits last quarter. Once the Tesla Model III consumer model hits in 2017, EV cars are going to go mainstream.

Faulty comparison. Amazon sold at a loss for years until it wiped its competitors out (which is called market dumping, and is illegal, and should have been punished). Tesla can't cut costs below its competitors. Tesla III is not mainstream, simple as that. When they come out with a $28,000 car that a journeyman household electrician can service, we'll call them "mainstream".

Fuel cells are worthless. Nobody wants to use Hydrogen. Pure hydrogen gas is far too reactive to be found in natural environments, unlike natural gas. It would have to be made from using techniques like water electrolysis, a process that is inefficient and expensive. Not to mention hydrogen gas is actually more reactive and dangerous than oil. Fuel cell Chevy Volt is dead, the new thing for GM is EV Chevy Bolt. The only ones pushing the dead concept of fuel cells are Toyota and Honda.

Hydrogen is an energy storage medium. Gasoline and CNG are also reactive and dangerous. Aluminum isn't found in nature either, and is also produced through electrolysis, but it's cheap enough we can sell half a liter of Coca-Cola in it. Even if hydrogen isn't the best solution, Musk's hatred of the technology is irrational and unproductive and speaks volumes about the guy and his actual motivations.

GM consumer vehicles are trash, the company is incapable of doing anything right and has been since the days of DeLorean and Nader.

 

[Jai Bharat]

Okay...so what's Tesla have to offer that BMW doesn't?

Tesla has committed to deep vertical integration with their heavy investments in the Gigafactory. Unlike BMW, they have already gone all-in on EV cars, meaning that they will have an early mover advantage with substantially less baggage holding them back.

Faulty comparison. Amazon sold at a loss for years until it wiped its competitors out (which is called market dumping, and is illegal, and should have been punished). Tesla can't cut costs below its competitors. Tesla III is not mainstream, simple as that. When they come out with a $28,000 car that a journeyman household electrician can service, we'll call them "mainstream".

Tesla Model III is being pegged at the low-mid $30k range before government subsidies and tax benefits. It is going to be affordable for the masses.

Hydrogen is an energy storage medium. Gasoline and CNG are also reactive and dangerous. Aluminum isn't found in nature either, and is also produced through electrolysis, but it's cheap enough we can sell half a liter of Coca-Cola in it. Even if hydrogen isn't the best solution, Musk's hatred of the technology is irrational and unproductive and speaks volumes about the guy and his actual motivations.

Aluminium has some unique properties that allow it to still maintain its shape and remain strong despite being cut in paper thin sheets. Hydrogen has nothing to offer that current ICE cars can't. It is an even more expensive solution and requires even more energy to produce than fossil fuels. Musk is right in stating that you might as well switch over to using natural gas as an energy storage medium, and start synthesizing methane instead of H2. It rightly deserves ridicule, consumers won't accept pricey H2 just because it offers zero emissions. EV cars offer the possibility of being outright better and cheaper than ICE cars, when the technology matures, as well as having zero emissions.

GM consumer vehicles are trash, the company is incapable of doing anything right and has been since the days of DeLorean and Nader.

Agree with you on this one, I would not buy a GM.

 

[Aestu]

Tesla has committed to deep vertical integration with their heavy investments in the Gigafactory. Unlike BMW, they have already gone all-in on EV cars, meaning that they will have an early mover advantage with substantially less baggage holding them back.

Knowing how to build a decent car in the first place is more substantial than the electric drive system. Novice hobbyists convert ICVs to electric all the time. It's far easier to do than to build a car from scratch. For this reason, BMV EVs are functionally superior to Tesla vehicles (and Chevy/GMs are much worse than either).

What you are trying to do here is to claim Tesla's hype is equivalent to actually knowing how to build a car - any car.

Tesla Model III is being pegged at the low-mid $30k range before government subsidies and tax benefits. It is going to be affordable for the masses.

...assuming the price doesn't go up at the last minute (as it typically does with anything Tesla) and it actually hits the market in two years. If Tesla were capable of pricing and manufacturing a car to match its boasts, they already would be.

Aluminium has some unique properties that allow it to still maintain its shape and remain strong despite being cut in paper thin sheets. Hydrogen has nothing to offer that current ICE cars can't. It is an even more expensive solution and requires even more energy to produce than fossil fuels. Musk is right in stating that you might as well switch over to using natural gas as an energy storage medium, and start synthesizing methane instead of H2. It rightly deserves ridicule, consumers won't accept pricey H2 just because it offers zero emissions. EV cars offer the possibility of being outright better and cheaper than ICE cars, when the technology matures, as well as having zero emissions.

Hydrogen is clean and renewable. I thought that was the point?

Battery cost is throttled by economy of scale at approximately the same rate as gasoline or hydrogen, except that it's also throttled by the supply of lithium.

You're missing my point about aluminum. My point is that it is indeed economical to produce it through an energy-intensive process despite not being found in nature - same as hydrogen.

 

[Jai Bharat]

Knowing how to build a decent car in the first place is more substantial than the electric drive system. Novice hobbyists convert ICVs to electric all the time. It's far easier to do than to build a car from scratch. For this reason, BMV EVs are functionally superior to Tesla vehicles (and Chevy/GMs are much worse than either).

What you are trying to do here is to claim Tesla's hype is equivalent to actually knowing how to build a car - any car.

Tesla cars are consistently highly rated by professional drivers and consumers alike. Their car safety ratings in particular are the best in the industry, well above their 'established' contemporaries. If that isn't knowing how to make a car, then I don't know what is. They are always on backlog, supply cannot keep up with their demand.

.assuming the price doesn't go up at the last minute (as it typically does with anything Tesla) and it actually hits the market in two years. If Tesla were capable of pricing and manufacturing a car to match its boasts, they already would be

We will see. I do not claim to know the future.

Hydrogen is clean and renewable. I thought that was the point?

Battery cost is throttled by economy of scale at approximately the same rate as gasoline or hydrogen, except that it's also throttled by the supply of lithium.

You're missing my point about aluminum. My point is that it is indeed economical to produce it through an energy-intensive process despite not being found in nature - same as hydrogen

Batteries can be made out of any anode and cathodes. You don't need to use Lithium. Metal-Air batteries using Beryellium show great promise, although any of these Metal–air electrochemical cell - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia types of batteries show great promise.

The 'old' consensus about ICE cars, was that as oil began to become scarce, the price would go up and alternatives would be used. Hydrogen was considered the consensus new fuel, as it mirrored the old models of pumps and large energy corporations deciding the future. What they couldn't predict is that the consumer sentiment and demand for electric cars would be so high, while advancements in hydrogen production and fuel cells would lag so far behind. Of the major car companies, only Toyota and Honda are serious about it anymore. Everyone else is shifting towards EVs, with major consumer models being planned by every single car company. If nobody is making Hydrogen cars, then there will be no demand for hydrogen production, and hydrogen prices won't go down and money won't be invested into it. The Nissan Leaf was the death keel for hydrogen cars, showing the mass appeal for an EV car, despite the limited range and higher cost. Imagine if the range were extended and the cost lowered, as is planned with future models.

 

[Jacob Martin]

Unless the traditional auto companies raise their game, Tesla is going to rule the automotive world in the medium term. The only disruptive event that I can think of is if hydrogen fuel cell technology takes off in a big way.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

The only disruptive event that I can think of is if hydrogen fuel cell technology takes off in a big way.

You'd still need the infrastructure that would sell Hydrogen. It's far more controversial to open them up in residential areas than a corner kiosk in a public garage with an electrical outlet. They'd probably have to deal with similar zoning rules/laws for gas stations.