The proxy wars in Pakistan : A neutral analysis whether enemy is inside or outside our borders

[Albatross]

Recent Bacha Khan University attack rekindled a debate in Pakistan as to whether the enemy was within or was outside of Pakistani borders. This debate led to some confusion.

However, the fact is that enemy is within and outside as well. For example, in the case of BKU foot soldiers recruited from Pakistan, were trained somewhere in Afghanistan. They crossed into western border on Torkham entry point and on their way to target BKU were facilitated by other accomplices.

A proxy need a typical sponsor and safe sanctuaries. They can have sleeper cells in Pakistan and can have safe heavens in Afghanistan.

Broader context of the debate needs to be understood, however: Pakistan has unsettled borders with India and Afghanistan( Not major one but if things escalates that issue can surface too) so both New Delhi and Kabul are territorial claimants on the country’s various regions.

Another threat perception is, the US and Israel has convergence to defang Pakistan like Iran: removing Pakistan’s nuclear capability. Add to the mix, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s derived sectarian leverage on Pakistan’ sectarian fault-line.

Logically, these countries have least interest to keep Pakistan stable and bridge its fault-lines. That is why billions of dollars by their respective agencies have to be justified for covert and over operations with least finger prints left on the targeted country.

That they leverage influence in Pakistan can be demonstrated in the following manner:

There are cells in religio-and religio-political forces who mainly exploits sectarian and religious fault lines as proxy. Some of them are violent others semi-violent yet others are peaceful constituencies serving the interests of sponsor states.
Second category is of secular cells operating mainly in linguistic and ethno-political forces who promote the narratives of client agencies/states. They are very active constituents. They tend to be criminal, violent and some times peaceful.

Third category is the far extreme violent religious and ethnic outfits who have close links with client states both secular and non-secular ones. They are mainly violent and use terror as modes operandi, (examples are BLA, MQM and other parties’ militant wings, and TTP).

The fourth group which is mainly peaceful and is part of non-kinetic warfare include certain NGOs who shape narrative, participate Psyc-Ops and in extreme cases, they work as conduit for espionage.

Now Pakistan can combat this non-conventional warfare by proxy by creative strategy and tactics.

First is internally making strong institutional capacity of law enforcement agencies-boring but critical job.

Second is fencing borders and securing coastlines with established immigration entry and exit points regardless of the efforts, money, and sacrifice involved in undertaking this gigantic task.

Fourth is plugging fundings coming from regional countries and smashing illegal sources of transfers and money laundering methods- a task, easier said than done.

Fifth priority is to establish clever system of punishment and accountability for various proxy groups.

Sixth is offensive measures taking the war to the enemy, if through defensive measures, sponsoring country’s warfare via proxy can not be completely checked.

The Bottom line is security paradigm has to be changed if Pakistan needs to win the war on terrorism and radicalisation of its society: that means fighting back with full might spanning over a generation and meaningful inclusive reforms. A state that allows its kids and pregnant women to be killed cold blooded, is not worth its name. A ruthless full spectrum measures are needed to be taken. Full stop.
@Horus @Slav Defence @Syed.Ali.Haider

 

[CriticalThinker02]

It's truly is amazing the detailed, precision, coordinated and articulated work the enemy has done to break and weaken Pakistan, the article didn't even addressed the in roads that were made in the media sector.

 

[Albatross]

It's truly is amazing the detailed, precision, coordinated and articulated work the enemy has done to break and weaken Pakistan, the article didn't even addressed the in roads that were made in the media sector.

Well there is no doubt Pakistan's issues are way too complicated to be addressed in a single piece .
There is a mix of world's top intel agencies having unlimited resources at their disposal to weaken Pakistan to a point where we are left with other option except to surrender to their terms including abandoning our claims over Indian occupied Kashmir , Nuclear weapons , Strategic depth in Afghanistan etc.

But on the other hand there are strong forces like China and Russia which do realize that a stronger Pakistan is in their interest to counter western and US influence in South and Central Asia.



Besides if you look at history of Pakistan despite all the odds our survival uptill now has been due to our strategic location that forced world powers to keep us engaged and its the same thing that will guarantee our survival in future given we play our cards well and manage out internal issues asap to not let enemy have a free ride .

Regarding media sector well it comes under psychic ops to shape things in a certain way.

 

[sady]

Asymmetric Warfare is emodiment of what 'Hassasins' professed. Chaos, terror and disinformation.Very few call spade a spade. People cut the same hands that feed and secure them. Mediocre people who couldn't do much with life ended up becoming journalists spew non sense and venom over screens.Portraying night as day and day as night.

A group of corrupt to the teeth people made relevant because the Democracy makes them relevant. People who can't make simple life choices like educating their children or not marrying them off so early in their lives or immunising them against deadly diseases are supposed to choose a direction for a whole country.

Termites only strike when homes are not properly fumigated and secured, erroding from within. Our foundations are weak. We do not know why should Pakistan deserve to stand? What is so special? What does being a Pakistani mean? Why is it important for us to embrace this rather new identity in history's timeline?

If we cannot answer these questions and remain confused, trust me everything else is irrelevant. When they say why does Pakistan need CII? Why does Pakistan need Blasphemy laws? Why is it Islamic Republic why not just Republic? Why this primitive shroud of religion? As malformed and dysfunctional these laws and bodies seem, These are attacked because these are the emodiment of what Pakistan was supposed to be. These ill figured laws and bodies are ruins of what something could have been beautifull but our complacency, illwill,nepotism, corruption, greed and incompetency turned these to a laughing stock or worse primitive archaic monstrosities.

Pakistan is Islam and Islam is Pakistan. Take it out and we have no reason to be Pakistani, no matter what the intellectuals in DAWN and TRIBUNE tell you, a piece of paper, cuisine, dresses and culture is not what makes us Pakistani. People are evil, what they perceive is evil, Islam is not.

Iran is homegenous, has one direction, dissent is minimal, voices are focused and hence with utmost efforts from outside they couldn't inspire unrest in that country. We are a fractured disgruntled society. Raise a voice or arms against State and many hands will start feeding you, many arms will raise in support and will be made profitable for you. Untill it is profitable for miscreants to rebel against state, this endless violence will prevail.

 

[Albatross]

Asymmetric Warfare is emodiment of what 'Hassasins' professed. Chaos, terror and disinformation.Very few call spade a spade. People cut the same hands that feed and secure them. Mediocre people who couldn't do much with life ended up becoming journalists spew non sense and venom over screens.Portraying night as day and day as night.

A group of corrupt to the teeth people made relevant because the Democracy makes them relevant. People who can't make simple life choices like educating their children or not marrying them off so early in their lives or immunising them against deadly diseases are supposed to choose a direction for a whole country.

Termites only strike when homes are not properly fumigated and secured, erroding from within. Our foundations are weak. We do not know why should Pakistan deserve to stand? What is so special? What does being a Pakistani mean? Why is it important for us to embrace this rather new identity in history's timeline?

If we cannot answer these questions and remain confused, trust me everything else is irrelevant. When they say why does Pakistan need CII? Why does Pakistan need Blasphemy laws? Why is it Islamic Republic why not just Republic? Why this primitive shroud of religion? As malformed and dysfunctional these laws and bodies seem, These are attacked because these are the emodiment of what Pakistan was supposed to be. These ill figured laws and bodies are ruins of what something could have been beautifull but our complacency, illwill,nepotism, corruption, greed and incompetency turned these to a laughing stock or worse primitive archaic monstrosities.

Pakistan is Islam and Islam is Pakistan. Take it out and we have no reason to be Pakistani, no matter what the intellectuals in DAWN and TRIBUNE tell you, a piece of paper, cuisine, dresses and culture is not what makes us Pakistani. People are evil, what they perceive is evil, Islam is not.

Iran is homegenous, has one direction, dissent is minimal, voices are focused and hence with utmost efforts from outside they couldn't inspire unrest in that country. We are a fractured disgruntled society. Raise a voice or arms against State and many hands will start feeding you, many arms will raise in support and will be made profitable for you. Untill it is profitable for miscreants to rebel against state, this endless violence will prevail.

You explained it all very well but look at the positive sideas well I feel all this has been inflicted on us by Allah to do the required soul searching so that more and more people like you and me can come up with the causes and solution which would always be ONE. Unity and adoptions of means to let people see and focus on things which converge them instead of all the attention on things which diverge the masses which is the case right now.

Army alone can not take care of all the ills its even a great achievement on their part that they have kept us united atleast geographically desite all the efforts to divide this country into pieces remember 08-09 when suicide bombings in our major cities was a daily occurring today we live in a much safer country but still a lot has to be done and that cant be done unless common people like you and me do our part and that's to spread the right message of unity and find and implement means of deradicalisation on the smallest possible level starting from street talks.

 

[Silverblaze]

Too simplistic. The extremism issue was there from the 60s, but it consistently increased and no one paid any interest. In the late 70s, 80s, 90s, the most dangerous organizations who do not believe in borders made way into pakistan and established close contact with like minded groups. The state as usual payed no attention, in fact many were satisfied that at least these groups dont ask for separation. Some powerful people in the establishment became emotionally involved with these groups.

Now ISIS is a new threat, this must not be ignored like Alqaeda was.

Now india, why would india want to deal with a stronger pakistan? So, its in indias interest to wage a low intensity conflict in pakistan.

Pakistan's establishment, being the most powerful has the most responsibility. Radical steps could be to bring Afghan taliban to the table and ask them to become a kind of a constructive force somewhat Hezbullah which in the parliament of lebanon and serves iranian interests.

Secondly, may be the time has come to give people of FATA a province, Establishing a couple of more corps in the western front should also be an option.

 

[sady]

You explained it all very well but look at the positive sideas well I feel all this has been inflicted on us by Allah to do the required soul searching so that more and more people like you and me can come up with the causes and solution which would always be ONE. Unity and adoptions of means to let people see and focus on things which converge them instead of all the attention on things which diverge the masses which is the case right now.

Army alone can not take care of all the ills its even a great achievement on their part that they have kept us united atleast geographically desite all the efforts to divide this country into pieces remember 08-09 when suicide bombings in our major cities was a daily occurring today we live in a much safer country but still a lot has to be done and that cant be done unless common people like you and me do our part and that's to spread the right message of unity and find and implement means of deradicalisation on the smallest possible level starting from street talks.

You are right. However it is only few who understand what is going on rest all are confused. They pick anything with slight semblance of rationality. The famous naratives;

1. Pak Army created them, it's their responsibility to clean their mess.
2. Afghanistan is a victim of Pakistani interference. It is payback time for them
3. India and Pakistan have been in constant war because Pak Army will lose relevance if they came together.
4. Pakistan opposes Iran on whims and wishes of Saudia only otherwise we were brotherly nations.
5. The solution to menance of terrorism is to separate religion from state.
6. Creation of Pakistan weakened Muslims in India otherwise they would have had twice the strength.

These are just few nefarious naratives. Then there many more on ethnic and sectarian lines that divide us. There people who their livelihoods by churning this to common people. The amount of disinformation is just disheartening

 

[Albatross]

You are right. However it is only few who understand what is going on rest all are confused. They pick anything with slight semblance of rationality. The famous naratives;

1. Pak Army created them, it's their responsibility to clean their mess.
2. Afghanistan is a victim of Pakistani interference. It is payback time for them
3. India and Pakistan have been in constant war because Pak Army will lose relevance if they came together.
4. Pakistan opposes Iran on whims and wishes of Saudia only otherwise we were brotherly nations.
5. The solution to menance of terrorism is to separate religion from state.
6. Creation of Pakistan weakened Muslims in India otherwise they would have had twice the strength.

These are just few nefarious naratives. Then there many more on ethnic and sectarian lines that divide us. There people who their livelihoods by churning this to common people. The amount of disinformation is just disheartening

Its true but we are at crossroads where we need to look for solutions too as their are thousands to tell us the problems.

I feel the best way to deal with such notions and propaganda is the US way which they use even the counter the real facts as well. Whole world calls US arrogant , cruel who attacked more than two a dozen nations after world war 2 and dropped nuke in WW2 but their masses are made in to believe it was all necessary to make them safe and they don't even question why killing thousands of Vietnamese was necessary for US security.

Before anything is reported in foreign media along with their interpretation US media reports making fun of it calling it a conspiracy theory etc and they have got a very robust intel network to see what people are thinking and then they adopt measure to shape those thinking as per state agenda.

Pakistan needs a lot of work to be done in many fields but psychic ops should be our first preference and unlimited resources should be applied for the same .

 

[sady]

Its true but we are at crossroads where we need to look for solutions too as their are thousands to tell us the problems.

I feel the best way to deal with such notions and propaganda is the US way which they use even the counter the real facts as well. Whole world calls US arrogant , cruel who attacked more than two a dozen nations after world war 2 and dropped nuke in WW2 but their masses are made in to believe it was all necessary to make them safe and they don't even question why killing thousands of Vietnamese was necessary for US security.

Before anything is reported in foreign media along with their interpretation US media reports making fun of it calling it a conspiracy theory etc and they have got a very robust intel network to see what people are thinking and then they adopt measure to shape those thinking as per state agenda.

Pakistan needs a lot of work to be done in many fields but psychic ops should be our first preference and unlimited resources should be applied for the same .

I couldn't agree more. Nincompoops are running psy ops. They are reactive at best and not at all pre emptive. Psy ops are more than spreading propaganda pics and pictorials on social media. There is no direction and no finesse. Psy ops is an art and science combined. It needs a sharp mind of a marketing executive to reflective mind of a Psychologist. I hope Pakistani establishment recruits some experts and get rid of stupid pictorials.

 

[TMA]

Recent Bacha Khan University attack rekindled a debate in Pakistan as to whether the enemy was within or was outside of Pakistani borders. This debate led to some confusion.

However, the fact is that enemy is within and outside as well. For example, in the case of BKU foot soldiers recruited from Pakistan, were trained somewhere in Afghanistan. They crossed into western border on Torkham entry point and on their way to target BKU were facilitated by other accomplices.

A proxy need a typical sponsor and safe sanctuaries. They can have sleeper cells in Pakistan and can have safe heavens in Afghanistan.

Broader context of the debate needs to be understood, however: Pakistan has unsettled borders with India and Afghanistan( Not major one but if things escalates that issue can surface too) so both New Delhi and Kabul are territorial claimants on the country’s various regions.

Another threat perception is, the US and Israel has convergence to defang Pakistan like Iran: removing Pakistan’s nuclear capability. Add to the mix, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s derived sectarian leverage on Pakistan’ sectarian fault-line.

Logically, these countries have least interest to keep Pakistan stable and bridge its fault-lines. That is why billions of dollars by their respective agencies have to be justified for covert and over operations with least finger prints left on the targeted country.

That they leverage influence in Pakistan can be demonstrated in the following manner:

There are cells in religio-and religio-political forces who mainly exploits sectarian and religious fault lines as proxy. Some of them are violent others semi-violent yet others are peaceful constituencies serving the interests of sponsor states.
Second category is of secular cells operating mainly in linguistic and ethno-political forces who promote the narratives of client agencies/states. They are very active constituents. They tend to be criminal, violent and some times peaceful.

Third category is the far extreme violent religious and ethnic outfits who have close links with client states both secular and non-secular ones. They are mainly violent and use terror as modes operandi, (examples are BLA, MQM and other parties’ militant wings, and TTP).

The fourth group which is mainly peaceful and is part of non-kinetic warfare include certain NGOs who shape narrative, participate Psyc-Ops and in extreme cases, they work as conduit for espionage.

Now Pakistan can combat this non-conventional warfare by proxy by creative strategy and tactics.

First is internally making strong institutional capacity of law enforcement agencies-boring but critical job.

Second is fencing borders and securing coastlines with established immigration entry and exit points regardless of the efforts, money, and sacrifice involved in undertaking this gigantic task.

Fourth is plugging fundings coming from regional countries and smashing illegal sources of transfers and money laundering methods- a task, easier said than done.

Fifth priority is to establish clever system of punishment and accountability for various proxy groups.

Sixth is offensive measures taking the war to the enemy, if through defensive measures, sponsoring country’s warfare via proxy can not be completely checked.

The Bottom line is security paradigm has to be changed if Pakistan needs to win the war on terrorism and radicalisation of its society: that means fighting back with full might spanning over a generation and meaningful inclusive reforms. A state that allows its kids and pregnant women to be killed cold blooded, is not worth its name. A ruthless full spectrum measures are needed to be taken. Full stop.
@Horus @Slav Defence @Syed.Ali.Haider

IMHO Mr Jafir and Mir Sadiq are the ones Pakistan needs to concentrate. Pakistan can withstand outside enemies but it must be internally strong.
For example those facilitators who were involved in the BKU attacks, were they ideologically driven Khawarij or people who were just simply bribed and bought?

 

[Albatross]

I agree with you traitors of the state are our real enemy.
Rest such facilitators are very easy to buy in any state of the world as they may or may not know what exactly they are facilitating.
Here is something from Hassan Nisar worth listening I don't agree with all the content 100% but the underlining statement is very very true as its always very easy for us to blame everything on others and consider ourselves saints.

 

[Shah01]

The terrorists attack at will it seems at times. I think the Army and rangers ops to tackle terrorism are plastering the root causes. It will work for short-term and resurface as the heat cools down.

To tackle the root causes education and awareness is important. This entails making people aware of the religious believes (this is a major factor in our lives in Pakistan) as well as modern education. It is not simple to change the way people think. I don't know if extremism was there when Pakistan came into being but from the articles I have read it was a progressive country/people with great opportunities and still is. I don't know exactly when the intolerance started which could've been a legacy of British Raj and culture in the subcontinent (mixing Islam and culture did not help either and the cast system divides further).
The aim should be to educate the masses and introduce tolerance between different sects and religions.

First is internally making strong institutional capacity of law enforcement agencies-boring but critical job.

Fifth priority is to establish clever system of punishment and accountability for various proxy groups.

The above are the backbone of any society. A strong Judiciary and Police is the key ingredient for a successful society which is missing in Pakistan. The aim should be to provide security and justice. This will also take care of corruption.

The next aim should be to provide employment for the vast young generation. This is a very big problem and it will get worse in the future as the population is increasing. Unemployment indirectly cause other ills such as robberies etc (an empty mind is a devil's workshop).

Second is fencing borders and securing coastlines with established immigration entry and exit points regardless of the efforts, money, and sacrifice involved in undertaking this gigantic task.

This may not work as passing fences/checkpoints will be very easy with rampant corruption.

Asymmetric Warfare is emodiment of what 'Hassasins' professed. Chaos, terror and disinformation.Very few call spade a spade. People cut the same hands that feed and secure them. Mediocre people who couldn't do much with life ended up becoming journalists spew non sense and venom over screens.Portraying night as day and day as night.

A group of corrupt to the teeth people made relevant because the Democracy makes them relevant. People who can't make simple life choices like educating their children or not marrying them off so early in their lives or immunising them against deadly diseases are supposed to choose a direction for a whole country.

Termites only strike when homes are not properly fumigated and secured, erroding from within. Our foundations are weak. We do not know why should Pakistan deserve to stand? What is so special? What does being a Pakistani mean? Why is it important for us to embrace this rather new identity in history's timeline?

I couldn't agree more especially the bold bit. We have to give democracy some time to mature and factors I have given above will help in choosing better leaders in future (if implemented).

@WAJsal

 

[WAJsal]

It will work for short-term and resurface as the heat cools down.

Agreed. NAP in itself is comprehensive and if fully implemented it can tackle causes of radicalization, though our political leadership, especially the governments(federal and provincials) are not keen on implementing NAP. Reasons, well you can guess.

The aim should be to educate the masses and introduce tolerance between different sects and religions.

Proper religious education and a social structure in that region is a need of the hour. Providing jobs and etc,etc; indeed, much can be done.

The above are the backbone of any society. A strong Judiciary and Police is the key ingredient for a successful society which is missing in Pakistan. The aim should be to provide security and justice. This will also take care of corruption.

Golden words:

This may not work as passing fences/checkpoints will be very easy with rampant corruption.

This is an important part of the whole mixture, we need to secure the border and control the refugee in-flow and easy way in and out for terrorists.

 

[Tshering22]

Well written.

So in short, US, Israel, India, Afghanistan, Saudi and Iran are all somehow involved in targeting Pakistan.

Defanging you was easier before than it is now. I don't think we can afford that. Think about it; you have too many centres of power. Army, ISI, civilian politicians, courts.. etc.

It is impossible for any country no matter how rich to buy everyone out.

In fact so sensitive that if Saudi invades Iran or vice versa, there could be a bloodbath across Pakistan.

In that light, it was smart of Nawaz Sharif to administer a dose of mediation and peace between the two.

 

[Dukkar]

the whole World is conspiring from the comments it seems