The myth of American military superiority

[applesauce]

we should separate winning battles and occupation in any us-china war scenario,
the US could/would win many of the battles that's is highly probable and pretty much doesnt need debate in a all out war, but the casualties they take while winning(assuming no nuclear scenario) will be something they haven't faced since ww2. and of course in a realistic scenario you cannot just discount the nuclear option where it will guarentee that while you do not win neither does anyone else.
occupation of china by american forces is be pretty much next to impossible

 

[gambit]

Since it is pretty much settled that the PLA cannot win in a US-China conventional fight, would China be the one to escalate the conflict to nuclear and to where?

 

[applesauce]

Since it is pretty much settled that the PLA cannot win in a US-China conventional fight, would China be the one to escalate the conflict to nuclear and to where?

i do not think its about wining for the Chinese in a conventional war(w/ respect to the US), the chinese leadership do not in anyway wish for direct war with the US, what it is about, is to deter american intervention in the event that china has to fight someone in its immediate area. so long as american national survival is not endangered, the chinese only have to promise heavy casualties for the Americans then its just deciding whether the cost is worth the result for the US and the military modernization is, each day, tipping the scale a bit at a time to the "not worth it" side. and that is something i believe china has been working on and quite frankly its been pretty successful as the cost is far greater than just 10 years ago, an american intervention near china would certainly be costly. ROC declaring Independence aside, there is really no situation that the chinese action/reaction would force america into a corner and force them into a military confrontation and even there some could question the wisdom to intervene.

china isnt about to invade japan nor start a firefight over some islands unless the japanese started it, same for SCF areas hence why civilian ships are flooding those areas and not military ships.

and nuclear-wise, i dont think china would escalate to nuclear unless its strategic forces(ie: nuclear) were attacked, or something like the three gorges dam were attacked.

so to sum it up, no fighting the american directly if possible, give the us every reason not to join a local fight via any levers available to them.

this strategy should hold for many years to come as the US should be ahead militarily for many years to come but the "levers" the chinese hold should grow in numbers and effectiveness

 

[gambit]

so long as american national survival is not endangered, the chinese only have to promise heavy casualties for the Americans then its just deciding whether the cost is worth the result for the US...

That is not going to happen. Against a power like China, just like Iraq, the adversary military will face a plan of utter annihilation and it will be only by the grace of the US for any remnants for limited self defense. The PLA leadership knows this from Desert Storm. The PLA will not be able to deliver on that promise, assuming through non-nuclear warfare.

 

[A1Kaid]

In air conflicts...

Air Dominance - The ability of an air force to compel other air forces, allied and adversaries, to re-array themselves into inferior postures.

Air Superiority - The ability of an air force to repeatedly achieve control of contestant airspace and if there are any losses, those losses are not statistical deterrence for those achievements.

Air Supremacy - He flies, he dies.

Stage One will have US air power, whether it be projected from CONUS, or stationed in allied territories, or from the seas, or in combinations, compels the PLAAF into inferior postures. Read: Defensive. This will occur without a single shot from either side. That posture is internally compelled by the pragmatism of the PLA's leadership regarding the PLAAF's ability to prevent access to territorial airspace: Not able. All the PLAAF can do is attempt to respond to initiatives and hope for any opening to have an initiative, which for a non-expeditionary air force: Not able.

Stage Two will have US and Chinese air forces essentially 'duking' it out over pieces of contestant airspaces, such as over vital sea ports, cities, etc. US air forces will have a difficult time in achieving air superiority over these contestant airspaces but given the fact that air battles are essentially mano-a-mano affairs and that US pilots have superiority in training, experience in personal and institutional memory, and equipment, US air forces will achieve air superiority over most, if not all, of discreet contestant airspaces.

Stage Three is what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yugoslavia. The enemy flies, he died, not entirely applicable to Afghanistan since it does not have any air forces to speak of. Not likely with either China or Russia. The geography is too large to cover. Despite the non-parity of technological levels compared to US, both of these air forces do have sufficient technological and usage sophistication to present a persistence in resistance to control by the adversary air force (US) to confine US to only air superiority of diverse contestant airspaces. Not over the entire country. Here is where wholesale numerical destruction by the US of its adversary air force is required to achieve 'Air Supremacy'. Is it possible for the US to achieve that wholesale destruction of the PLAAF forces arrayed throughout mainland China? It is a stretch...

Very informative post, I was just discussing PAF's potential to have Air Dominance over western Hind in a two-front war for India.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakist...apable-penetrate-rajasthan-8.html#post3526863

Post #108

Gambit,

What do you think are PLAAF capability to deter or counter the USAF F-22 with their J-20 in a battle for air superiority?

 

[karan21]

Its will be stupid for anyone to underestimate America. They have much more in their arsenal. Missiles launched from adversary country might fall on their own cities. The softwares made by American scientists called Flame and stuxnet was able to penetrate Iranian nuclear facilities and destroy hardware and electrical circuits, something that has never been done before. They have the Brains of jews working for them, you don't wanna mess with the smartest race on the planet.

They are definitely not as influential as before and Asia is poised to over take them economically and militarily but underestimating them will be the biggest mistake. WW2 ended within a few months after American intervention.

 

[PakShah]

It is already a known fact that by end of 2017, USA won't be strongest country economically, militarily, politically, or culturally.

China and Russia are rising fast.
Anti-Americanism in rampant in the Islamic World.

South Americans and Europeans don't like USA.

 

[gambit]

It is already a known fact that by end of 2017, USA won't be strongest country economically, militarily, politically, or culturally.

China and Russia are rising fast.
Anti-Americanism in rampant in the Islamic World.

South Americans and Europeans don't like USA.

What to do? Oh well...

Continue to underestimate US. Please.

 

[A1Kaid]

Continue to underestimate US. Please.

Gambit,

What do you think are PLAAF's capability to deter or counter the USAF F-22 with their J-20 in a battle for air superiority?

 

[karan21]

It is already a known fact that by end of 2017, USA won't be strongest country economically, militarily, politically, or culturally.

China and Russia are rising fast.
Anti-Americanism in rampant in the Islamic World.

South Americans and Europeans don't like USA.

China yes but Russia will never reach a stage to challenge America again. Their population is too small to challenge America economically and hence they won't be able to hold on militarily also. Only countries able to potentially challenge America in this century are China(1st), India (2nd) and believe it or not Nigeria who is expected to have 350 million people by 2050(but they are too small, poor and industrially backward.

One more odd one is united Muslims Ummah, together these 2 billion people could form greatest superpower ever but this is far from reality now.

 

[PakShah]

China yes but Russia will never reach a stage to challenge America again. Their population is too small to challenge America economically and hence they won't be able to hold on militarily also. Only countries able to potentially challenge America in this century are China(1st), India (2nd) and believe it or not Nigeria who is expected to have 350 million people by 2050(but they are too small, poor and industrially backward.

One more odd one is united Muslims Ummah, together these 2 billion people could form a superpower but this is far from reality now.

India to challenge USA, are you joking. Please give me a break.

If Russia allies with China, this augments Russia's position vis-a-vis USA.

 

[karan21]

India to challenge USA, are you joking. Please give me a break.

If Russia allies with China, this augments Russia's position vis-a-vis USA.

What makes you think that Russia will ally with China, lol Russia doesn't ride on other's horses, it is a strong nation by itself with independent policy.
About India, I say based on facts. As I said potentially.
National Power Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

At the end of the day it will be population and economy that will decide the strength of a country. More people you have = bigger economy in basic language.

Ontopic: America is still huge in military and we need to first learn what they can do with our missiles. We are proud of those missiles we launch every weekend. Will those even hit America when time comes.

 

[PakShah]

Continue to underestimate US. Please.

No one is underestimating USA. but don't underestimate other countries either.

Ofcourse it is the Americans who blind in their ignorance and arrogance.

Still thinking that they can recover from the cursed mistakes of the first 2000's decade.

Who will side with USA to be a counterweight to China?

Forget the Muslim countries, USA messed up it's relations over there.

Bush mentioning the word "crusade" pretty much gave it away what he intended to do.

India although has been shifting to USA in the past, but India tries to balance it out along with EU and Russia.

Romey calls Russia, USA's 1st enemy. Quite interesting isn't it. That the Cold War is over, but Romney is still the product of that mindset.

Obviously memories don't fade away so easily.

African countries prefer China. Lost there.

Who's left? South America? Talk to Brazilians and ask them if they like USA .

 

[karan21]

No one is underestimating USA. but don't underestimate other countries either.

Ofcourse it is the Americans who blind in their ignorance and arrogance.

Still thinking that they can recover from the cursed mistakes of the first 2000's decade.

Who will side with USA to be a counterweight to China?

Forget the Muslim countries, USA messed up it's relations over there.

Bush mentioning the word "crusade" pretty much gave it away what he intended to do.

India although has been shifting to USA in the past, but India tries to balance it out along with EU and Russia.

Romey calls Russia, USA's 1st enemy. Quite interesting isn't it. That the Cold War is over, but Romney is still the product of that mindset.

Obviously memories don't fade away so easily.

African countries prefer China. Lost there.

Who's left? South America? Talk to Brazilians and ask them if they like USA .

I guess you forgot Isreal, Japan, South Korea, Britain, france, Australia. These countries are almost 100% dependent on American defence technology.

 

[gambit]

What do you think are PLAAF capability to deter or counter the USAF F-22 with their J-20 in a battle for air superiority?

Way too early to tell. The F-117 have altered the EM warfare landscape much more subtle than people realized and so far, only the US have managed to exploit those subtle changes to its advantages regarding air warfare doctrines. Crucial to the reexamination and reorganization of doctrines are experience. We know which tactics worked well, which worked not so well, and which failed. However, what failed may be because of the inability to evade certain EM warfare tactics by an adversary. So what tactics that failed against certain types of target may have been revived by 'stealth'. And did in many instances.

The PLAAF does not have that foundation of experience upon which to reexamine and reorganize its air warfare doctrines. Not one PLAAF pilot know what it is like to experience frustration from a wily EM warrior, how to examine that problem under combat stress, and finally how to defeat and/or bypass that EM adversary. It is like giving a rifle to someone whose experience consists of swords and spears, not including archery. It is unfortunate that the Chinese members here have a low opinion of experience.

The PLAAF have no choice but to do a lot of guesswork regarding air warfare doctrines on how to exploit the J-20's low radar observability advantages over regional air forces and air defenses, assuming the high latitude that the J-20's low radar observability is comparable to the F-22, and assuming the US will have no hand in improving regional allied air forces and air defenses.

But...I will go out on a limb and say that based on experience on our part, lack thereof for the PLAAF, and despite the benefit that the J-20 is technically comparable to the F-22, the J-20 will not pose a credible deterrence to the F-35, let alone a dedicated fighter like the F-22.