The Muslim vote drift may seal the fate of the Samajwadi Party

[LA se Karachi]

The Muslim vote drift may seal the fate of the Samajwadi Party

By ET Bureau | Oct 30, 2016, 12.00 AM IST​

The ruling Yadav clan now seems to have understood that after its repeated own goals, it may well be out of the 2017 assembly race.​

The ongoing turmoil within the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh is likely to spell a major shift in its core vote bank of Muslims, who could turn the political tide in the 2017 assembly elections in the state.

With a divided SP clearly appearing to be a sinking ship, it would be quite natural for Muslims to gravitate towards the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is already being seen as the only potent political force to take on the right-wing BJP in the country’s most populous state.

While this was being talked about in hushed tones across the state’s political spectrum, apprehensions about such a drift of the Muslim vote were expressed by none other than Azam Khan, who was not only SP’s key Muslim face but also an influential minister in the Akhilesh Yadav cabinet. The minister who is well known for his brutal bluntness, went to the extent of issuing a press statement to that effect in Lucknow on Wednesday.

Expressing anguish over the goingson in the party, Khan said in the statement: “Chal rahe rajneetik kram mein sabse zyada Mussalmaan pareshaan hai kyunki unko apna bhavishya bahut andhkarmaye nazar aa raha hai. Unka toota bikhra sapna sabke samne hai (The ongoing political turmoil has greatly disturbed the Muslims who can see this leading to a dark future for themselves. They can see their dreams getting shattered).”

Rebuking those who considered Muslims as their captive vote bank, Khan warned: “Na toh Mussalmaan paani ka bulbula hai, aur na hi thali ka baingan jise kahin bhi lurhka diya jaye. Har Mussalmaan ki aaj ke halaat par paini nazar hai aur faisla lene mein kaafi samay hai. Faisla aisa hi hoga ki BJP sarkar UP mein na ban sake (Muslims are not like a water bubble, nor are they like a brinjal on a plate to be pushed around in any direction.

They are keeping a close eye on the current political developments. There is still a lot of time to take the final call and I am sure they will see to it that they keep the BJP out of power in the state).”

The statement explicitly conveyed by this prominent Muslim leader was about the Muslim vote drifting away from the party in which it had reposed faith over the years. In fact, Muslims had begun to switch loyalties from the Congress towards the SP particularly after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya on December 6, 1992, when violent Hindu karsevaks installed a makeshift temple on the site of the razed mosque.

Mulayam Singh Yadav had won the support of Muslims soon after he ordered firing on karsevaks when they made an earlier attempt to storm the mosque in October-November, 1990.

The SP continued to thrive with blind support of Muslims, who perceived the party as the only potent political force that could keep them “protected” against the “onslaughts” of the rightwing Hindu nationalist BJP. But as time went by, Muslims felt that Mulayam was taking them for granted. Eventually, the poor handling of Muzaffarnagar riots by the SP government in 2013 left Muslims quite disillusioned.

Head-to-head
The BSP, which had ruled UP four times, is out to grab the opportunity by proving that it is the only political outfit that could take on the BJP. At a recent rally organised by BSP supremo Mayawati on the sprawling Kanshi Ram Memorial grounds in Lucknow, she went about seeking the Muslim vote quite blatantly. “Don’t waste your vote by casting it in favour of the SP, as it is a completely divided house,” she told the crowd. “Rest assured that under the prevailing situation, Akhilesh Yadav’s supporters would sabotage Shivpal’s followers and likewise Shivpal would try to puncture the nephew’s nominees, which would eventually seal the fate of the Samajwadi Party,” she sought to point out, adding, “therefore, remember the BSP is the only political party that can defeat the BJP.”

By all counts, the BSP was the only party with a strong, unflinching base-vote of Dalits, roughly 21% of the population. Even after taking into account that the entire lot may not stick with Mayawati, it is well above the captive base vote of any other key political player.

As such, what the BSP requires for a clear win is a top-up of just about 12% votes. If the party is able to add on 60-70% of the 20% Muslim vote, Mayawati stands a golden chance of not only demolishing the SP but also racing well ahead of the BJP.

The ruling Yadav clan now seems to have understood that after its repeated own goals, it may well be out of the 2017 assembly race. The war between Akhilesh and Shivpal is clearly for succession and hold over the party. With age on his side, Akhilesh is looking up to the election in 2022.

He may have got anointed as chief minister in 2012 but despite being on the high pedestal for nearly five years now, Akhilesh could not become a leader in the true sense. The ongoing conflict is an outcome of that quest. All was well, until he took it lying down from the father, who continued to do all the backseat driving and his overbearing uncles who managed to extract their own pound of flesh all along the 55 months of SP rule so far.

No sooner had he decided to say enough is enough, than the father and the uncles rose up in arms against him. To add to Akhilesh’s woes and much against his wishes, Amar Singh returned to the party fold, where Shivpal and Mulayam’s second wife Sadhana were already scheming against Akhilesh.

In the do-or-die battle, if round one went to Shivpal, round two was clearly in favour of Akhilesh, whose chief ministerial chair, at the end of the day, was protected by the father. But the peace Mulayam has brokered looks temporary. Several other scores are yet to be settled and how things play out over the next few weeks could be even more dramatic than what has been witnessed so far.

(Sharat Pradhan is a freelance journalist)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-the-samajwadi-party/articleshow/55132722.cms