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The Middle East conundrum: What is the safe passage for Pakistan?
Global Village Space |
Ghulam Mustafa |
Mired in its Afghan Policy quagmire, reeling from Trump led Saudi Arabian stunning uppercut and Panama JIT, Pakistan appears to have been left way behind in the past tense of rapidly evolving international power game. Saudi Arabia’s move to boycott tiny Qatar, citing its pro-Iran leanings and, hold it, Qatar’s support for terrorism in the region caught us napping yet again. That Qatari Forces were fighting alongside Saudis in Yemen to put down Iranian-backed Houthis, that Qatar was supporting Saudi efforts to oust Assad Regime in Syria and that this small Arab state had agreed to be part of Saudi-led Military Alliance being raised to ostensibly fight terrorism, appears to have been totally forgotten.
It must be remembered that Qatar has longstanding territorial disputes with both its neighbors and claims that the two have illegally occupied its oil and gas rich areas adjoining their borders.
Eight other states were in equal hurry to join the move. King Salman’s dementia appears to have affected them as soon as they got a call from the paymaster. It is not a sudden development but had been building up because of a reported personality clash between three young leaders at the controls in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. Being the smallest, most progressive and the richest of them all, Qatar had taken an irksome lead in affairs of GCC as well as the surrounding region. It had the courage to support Akhwans of Egypt and Taliban of Afghanistan. Being home to Regional HQ of CENTCOM was another big advantage. Al Jazeera TV and associated media powerhouse, so-called independent entity, located in Qatar and going about its business quite aggressively, was yet another sour point.
Read more: Saudi-UAE-Qatar crisis: Will the US’ mediation bear fruit?
Emir of Qatar invited trouble when he said that Iran, being a major player in the region, cannot be ignored or isolated as a terror sponsor. He went on to claim that were it not for the presence of CENTCOM on Qatari soil, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE would have captured this tiny sheikhdom. It must be remembered that Qatar has longstanding territorial disputes with both its neighbors and claims that the two have illegally occupied its oil and gas rich areas adjoining their borders. This statement, coming immediately after the Trump chaired conference of fifty-four countries in Saudi Arabia became the catalyst for swift Saudi action.
Pakistan was quick to declare that it will not sever its ties with Qatar but stopped short of declaring its intentions or further course of action with regard to Saudi Arabia or Saudi-led Military Alliance. Turkey sided with Qatar because the two have a military pact. Donald Trump was ecstatic declaring it as the most important result of his Saudi Arabia yatra. He was quick to add that isolating and sorting out terror sponsor, meaning Qatar, and major nuisance in this regard, Iran, would lead to final victory against the menace of terrorism.
What is in it for Russia?
It does not take much to conclude that China would opt to be with Russia, thus Iran and Turkey, if push comes to shove in the case of Qatar.
Putin must have been the happiest man at this unraveling of whatever unity existed within the Muslim world. He was quick to side with Qatar. So was Iran. Kuwait not only abstained but its Emir traveled to Riyad in search of much-needed sanity in rapidly deteriorating regional order. Rumors are rife that supported by Egyptian Forces, Saudis are thinking of attacking Qatar. On its part, Qatar has declared an emergency and has called for dialogue to ease the tension.
Is Russia the ultimate chess master? Or has the game been thrown its way by some myopic leadership in the region? Here is why Putin can gloat while looking over the chess board.
Read more: Turkish troops march for Qatar’s support: Escalation in the Gulf crisis?
1. Syria: Turkey and Qatar moving out of American-led alliance battling to overthrow Assad Regime will ease its burden. Russia and Iran will get a lot of space to further stabilize Syrian Regime and go after various rebel groups who are on the run anyway.
2. Military Alliance: The Saudi-led alliance of forty-one countries appears to be a nonstarter when Turkey joins hand with Qatar in becoming indirect supporters of Iran, its declared enemy. Mr. Donald Trump was very emphatic in this regard during his famous address in Riyad. No one present in the conference objected, including our Prime Minister.
3. Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Adventure: Already into its third year, the state in Yemen is not making much of a headway. Qatar has pulled out of it. Iran will now have a better excuse to support Houthis openly. Russia, lurking in the shadows, might also lend a helping hand ensuring that Bab Al Mandib remains out of Saudi reach. China moving to Eritrea is also a good sign. Egyptians, having tried and failed miserably in the seventies, may jump in support of KSA but results can be foretold if history is any guide. Turkey, coming closer to Iran, will balance the rest.
4. Chinese Connection: China has a lot at stake in the game. Is lending more than a helping hand in settling Syria and Afghanistan to counter US influence in the game. Has 150 Billion Dollars worth of trade agreements with Iran and not opposed Iran’s adventurism in the region? It does not take much to conclude that China would opt to be with Russia, thus Iran and Turkey, if push comes to shove in the case of Qatar.
Where does Pakistan stand?
Besides traditional relationship, Pakistan has signed up over 15 Billion Dollars worth of LNG deal with Qatar only last year. Its details are shrouded in mystery giving rise to all kinds of speculations.
Where does it leave Pakistan? As of now, we seem to be in a trance, doing nothing, firmly rooted to where ever we were a few months back. Our considerable national power appears considerably diminished when we opted not to object to Trump’s diatribe against Iran. A tiny state like Qatar had the gumption to challenge him but our leadership was and continues to be on mute. Our internal dynamics and challenges emerging due to evolving power game have combined at the worst possible time. The absence of a coherent foreign policy and lack of efforts at remedial measures are adding to our woes. Complexities of these problems can be gauged from the following:
Read full article:
The Middle East conundrum: What is the safe passage for Pakistan?
Global Village Space |
Ghulam Mustafa |
Mired in its Afghan Policy quagmire, reeling from Trump led Saudi Arabian stunning uppercut and Panama JIT, Pakistan appears to have been left way behind in the past tense of rapidly evolving international power game. Saudi Arabia’s move to boycott tiny Qatar, citing its pro-Iran leanings and, hold it, Qatar’s support for terrorism in the region caught us napping yet again. That Qatari Forces were fighting alongside Saudis in Yemen to put down Iranian-backed Houthis, that Qatar was supporting Saudi efforts to oust Assad Regime in Syria and that this small Arab state had agreed to be part of Saudi-led Military Alliance being raised to ostensibly fight terrorism, appears to have been totally forgotten.
It must be remembered that Qatar has longstanding territorial disputes with both its neighbors and claims that the two have illegally occupied its oil and gas rich areas adjoining their borders.
Eight other states were in equal hurry to join the move. King Salman’s dementia appears to have affected them as soon as they got a call from the paymaster. It is not a sudden development but had been building up because of a reported personality clash between three young leaders at the controls in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. Being the smallest, most progressive and the richest of them all, Qatar had taken an irksome lead in affairs of GCC as well as the surrounding region. It had the courage to support Akhwans of Egypt and Taliban of Afghanistan. Being home to Regional HQ of CENTCOM was another big advantage. Al Jazeera TV and associated media powerhouse, so-called independent entity, located in Qatar and going about its business quite aggressively, was yet another sour point.
Read more: Saudi-UAE-Qatar crisis: Will the US’ mediation bear fruit?
Emir of Qatar invited trouble when he said that Iran, being a major player in the region, cannot be ignored or isolated as a terror sponsor. He went on to claim that were it not for the presence of CENTCOM on Qatari soil, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE would have captured this tiny sheikhdom. It must be remembered that Qatar has longstanding territorial disputes with both its neighbors and claims that the two have illegally occupied its oil and gas rich areas adjoining their borders. This statement, coming immediately after the Trump chaired conference of fifty-four countries in Saudi Arabia became the catalyst for swift Saudi action.
Pakistan was quick to declare that it will not sever its ties with Qatar but stopped short of declaring its intentions or further course of action with regard to Saudi Arabia or Saudi-led Military Alliance. Turkey sided with Qatar because the two have a military pact. Donald Trump was ecstatic declaring it as the most important result of his Saudi Arabia yatra. He was quick to add that isolating and sorting out terror sponsor, meaning Qatar, and major nuisance in this regard, Iran, would lead to final victory against the menace of terrorism.
What is in it for Russia?
It does not take much to conclude that China would opt to be with Russia, thus Iran and Turkey, if push comes to shove in the case of Qatar.
Putin must have been the happiest man at this unraveling of whatever unity existed within the Muslim world. He was quick to side with Qatar. So was Iran. Kuwait not only abstained but its Emir traveled to Riyad in search of much-needed sanity in rapidly deteriorating regional order. Rumors are rife that supported by Egyptian Forces, Saudis are thinking of attacking Qatar. On its part, Qatar has declared an emergency and has called for dialogue to ease the tension.
Is Russia the ultimate chess master? Or has the game been thrown its way by some myopic leadership in the region? Here is why Putin can gloat while looking over the chess board.
Read more: Turkish troops march for Qatar’s support: Escalation in the Gulf crisis?
1. Syria: Turkey and Qatar moving out of American-led alliance battling to overthrow Assad Regime will ease its burden. Russia and Iran will get a lot of space to further stabilize Syrian Regime and go after various rebel groups who are on the run anyway.
2. Military Alliance: The Saudi-led alliance of forty-one countries appears to be a nonstarter when Turkey joins hand with Qatar in becoming indirect supporters of Iran, its declared enemy. Mr. Donald Trump was very emphatic in this regard during his famous address in Riyad. No one present in the conference objected, including our Prime Minister.
3. Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Adventure: Already into its third year, the state in Yemen is not making much of a headway. Qatar has pulled out of it. Iran will now have a better excuse to support Houthis openly. Russia, lurking in the shadows, might also lend a helping hand ensuring that Bab Al Mandib remains out of Saudi reach. China moving to Eritrea is also a good sign. Egyptians, having tried and failed miserably in the seventies, may jump in support of KSA but results can be foretold if history is any guide. Turkey, coming closer to Iran, will balance the rest.
4. Chinese Connection: China has a lot at stake in the game. Is lending more than a helping hand in settling Syria and Afghanistan to counter US influence in the game. Has 150 Billion Dollars worth of trade agreements with Iran and not opposed Iran’s adventurism in the region? It does not take much to conclude that China would opt to be with Russia, thus Iran and Turkey, if push comes to shove in the case of Qatar.
Where does Pakistan stand?
Besides traditional relationship, Pakistan has signed up over 15 Billion Dollars worth of LNG deal with Qatar only last year. Its details are shrouded in mystery giving rise to all kinds of speculations.
Where does it leave Pakistan? As of now, we seem to be in a trance, doing nothing, firmly rooted to where ever we were a few months back. Our considerable national power appears considerably diminished when we opted not to object to Trump’s diatribe against Iran. A tiny state like Qatar had the gumption to challenge him but our leadership was and continues to be on mute. Our internal dynamics and challenges emerging due to evolving power game have combined at the worst possible time. The absence of a coherent foreign policy and lack of efforts at remedial measures are adding to our woes. Complexities of these problems can be gauged from the following:
Read full article:
The Middle East conundrum: What is the safe passage for Pakistan?
