raptor22
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The JCPoA : "The sword of Damocles" a western powers' dream
Conclusion:
Under the JCPoA Iran has proven that it is ready to engage in serious talks as a trustworthy member of international community and country that would follow its commitment. Also Iran has been able to continue its R&D and work on new centrifuges "IR-8" that its capacity to enrich uranium is 20 times more than the existing "IR-1" machines which means if the US president decides to walk away from the deal the break-out time that was considered in JCPoA 1 year by Iran technological capabilities before the deal now would be longer than a political decision in Iran.
To sum up although the JCPoA has created an atmosphere for Iran to breath and a relief from sanctions, the main purpose of the deal wasn't curbing Iran nuclear program but it was a part of a bigger plan to achieve either regime change in Iran or bringing changes in Iran behavior. The same policy was taken by Regan administration towards the Soviet union in 80s, the Soviet Union engaged in negotiations to reach an agreement by west in order to build up its ailing economy. Years of negotiation and trusting western countries and trying to appease and placate the west resulted in nothing but collapse of a super power "the Soviet Union".
Now the US is trying to deploy the same policy, targeting Iran sources of power like Iran nuclear program, Iran missile program and Iran regional influence while engage Iran in not ending negotiation and promising sanctions relief that would never happen and meanwhile creating rift among Iranian. In fact the US policy is turning the JCPoA to Iran "Sword of Damocles" ... if Iran stop appeasing the west then the sword of sanctions would fall so to be safe from sanction Iran must cave in and meet American demands which means changing behavior .. therefore Iran either should accept American hegemony and get solved in new world order which in the US is the boss or stands for its values and face sanctions.
The only way to end this vicious cycle and to prevent the fate of the SU is looking inside, surly sanctions have hurt Iran economy but most of issues that prevent Iran's economy from flourishing mostly are domestic rather than external like corruption, management, waste of resources and ... The point is with or without the JCPoA, American policy towards Iran would always remain hostile if Iran doesn't change and secondly with or without the JCPoA Iran has to work and address the aforementioned internal factors that prevent Iran economy from booming.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or nuclear deal as known as a "diplomatic marathon" between Iran and 5+1 was reached on 14 July 2015 after years of negotiations which was followed by the Security Council resolution 2231 on 20 July 2015, the main objective of this negotiations for Iran was to remove unjust sanctions imposed by the USA while preserve its peaceful nuclear capabilities, for American main goal as they claimed was preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapon a myth that has been out there for more than 3 decades and never been proven.
To get to that point Iran agreed some restrictions over its nuclear program some would expire within 8 years some would remain for good. Since 16 January 2016 (JCPOA Implementation Day), the IAEA has verified and monitored Iran’s implementation of its nuclear-related commitments in accordance with the modalities set out in the JCPOA (Activities related to heavy water and reprocessing, activities related to enrichment and fuel, centrifuge research & development, transparency measures).
Base upon 9 IAEA's reports released by Agency since Implementation Day Iran is staying within the main limits set down in a 2015 multilateral agreement and has complied to the deal fully.
Verification and Monitoring in Iran.
Whilst Iran compliance to the deal has been certified by IAEA , 5+1 commitments have remained to be fulfilled yet and Iran in numerous times has warned all parties involved in this deal to comply to deal as they expect Iran to adhere to it, for example this the letter that was sent for high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and Security policy by Iran FM Mr. Javad Zarif:
On the other hand the new president in oval office has threaten to kill the deal. Trump considers the JCPoA “the worst deal ever” and presented the Europeans with a false choice: either kill the deal with me, or I’ll kill it alone. On 12 Jan 2018 Trump waived a raft of sanctions against Iran as required under a 2015 nuclear agreement but warned European allies and Congress it will be the last such waiver he signs if they fail to agree to radical changes.
Trump has called for some amendments in the JCPoA in a way that:
1: To include no sunset clauses, which means all Iran's restrictions under the JCPoA must have no expiration dates and remain forever. The fact is some of the most severe restrictions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program begin expiring within the next decade.
2: Iran’s ballistic missile development be added.
3: Iran's regional activities be added "The agreement doesn’t do anything to address Iran’s sponsorship of terrorist groups or contributions to regional instability in places such as Yemen".
Iran has made it clear that the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other key world powers "cannot be renegotiated in any way," rejecting President Trump's threat to pull out of the agreement if the other parties do not fix its "disastrous flaws."
The problem with Trump's notion of renegotiation over the JCPoA is neglecting 2 facts:
1: To reach such an agreement the delegations of all involved countries in the talks agreed to limit negotiations to just nuclear issue in order to increase the chances of reaching an mutual understanding in the limited time due to complexity and time consuming of such a sensitive matter which eventually happened in 14 July 2015.
2: To build trust through fully commitment to the deal by all sides that could pave path and become basis for future negotiations over other critical issues between Iran and beneficiary countries.
Now we are in 2018, 2 years after the JCPoA Implementation Day (16 January 2016 ) not only 5+1 has not met its obligations under the deal yet they expect Iran to come to the negotiation table and discuss over its missile program and regional activities.
So far European countries have declared their fully support for the JCPoA and opposed renegotiation over it but recently have signaled their willingness to force Iran to engage in new round of negotiations about its missile program in order to save the JCPoA. It means European countries instead of forcing the US Gov to implement the deal wanna keep it alive by forcing Iran to accept more restrictions.
For Iran such a request is unacceptable for some obvious reasons:
1: First of all the JCPoA experience, Iran implemented nuclear deal completely and expected other side to do the same .. so far nothing happened. Iran does believe that not only no trust has been built since reaching agreement it has caused more concerns over the western countries' main objectives over deal.
2: Iran missile program: Iran is not a signatory of MTCR (missile technology control regime) or HCOC (The International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation also known as the Hague Code of Conduct) so sees no need to accept any limitation over its missile program.
Furthermore Iran indeed has some serious security concerns posed by the USA and allies in the region, how Iran could engage in talks about its defensive capabilities with a country that publicly seek regime change in Iran and doesn't miss a chance to target its interest regionally and globally or threats it by military option?
In fact Iran started its missile program in 80s during Iran-Iraq war to defend itself against Iraqi Scud missiles carrying chemical warheads showering Iranian cities killing thousands of civilians that was ignored by the UNSC for 10 years, a pure self-defense act by Iran.
The second and last time that Iran used its missile capability was again for a self-defense purpose and against isis terrorist group positions in Syria after a terrorist attack carried out by it in Tehran killing 17 and injuring more 50 Iranian citizens in 2017, A terrorist group that Iran considers as results of American and its allies destructive policies in the region. Iran has never used its missiles unless for self-defense against those whom attacked it first therefore Iran consider any attempt to categorize its missile capabilities as a threat to international peace and security ridicules and laughable.
Self-defense is an universal right and no one could deprive any nation from practicing it.
To do so countries need to have defensive means which either must be bought or made domestically. Due to American sanctions Iran can not buy any weapons and has no choice but to rely on its indigenous capabilities for example buying an air defense system that can not be used against anyone aka S-300 AD took Iran 10 years to receive from Russia due to American pressure let alone purchasing an offensive weapon like fighter jets.
While Iran is sanctioned by the US, American Gov. is doing its best to weaponize the region by selling hundreds billions $ worth of weaponry to the regional countries mostly involved and active in Iran-Iraq war, countries that supported Saddam Hussain the notorious former president of Iraq financially, politically and even by manpower during his invasion against Iran, not to mention the US direct involvement in the war for example shooting down Iranian Air Flight 655 resulted in death of 300 civilians or attacking Iranian oil platforms in the Persian gulf. Unfortunately these countries didn't take a lesson after invasion of Kuwait by Saddam and continued their unproductive policies toward Iran.
Tehran - February 29, 1988 - Rubble of a building destroyed by Iraq Missile attack
The next issue is the US activities in the region, the US has invaded Iran 2 neighboring countries, Iraq and Afghanistan, has military basis all around Iran and its fifth fleet of navy is ducked in southern part of Persian gulf in Bahrain. The US has threaten Iran by military option on the daily basis since revolution and sent its spy drones inside Iran airspace many have been shot down many more brought down.
The next issue is history of Iran, for the past 3 centuries Iran has not waged any war against anyone simply Iran has been peaceful but in the very same time has lost have of its territories invaded from north and south in both world wars ,its people were killed and dragged into the wars that they initially declared its neutral position, faced military coups and etc ...
3: Regional activities: When it comes to regional activities Iran has a consistence policy of building an internal security projected by regional countries without presence of external powers. While Iran sees external players as a problem and obstacle rather than solution western countries would always try to portray Iran roles in the region as a devil act and give it sectarian color and that's the place problems would start to raise. They see Iran as an obstacle for their new regional order. Actually Iran is the only nation-state capable to form and shape a front against American hegemony in the region, look what Henry Kissinger former the US secretary of state has to say before the senate Armed Services committee on January 25, 2018 :
To get to that point Iran agreed some restrictions over its nuclear program some would expire within 8 years some would remain for good. Since 16 January 2016 (JCPOA Implementation Day), the IAEA has verified and monitored Iran’s implementation of its nuclear-related commitments in accordance with the modalities set out in the JCPOA (Activities related to heavy water and reprocessing, activities related to enrichment and fuel, centrifuge research & development, transparency measures).
Base upon 9 IAEA's reports released by Agency since Implementation Day Iran is staying within the main limits set down in a 2015 multilateral agreement and has complied to the deal fully.
Verification and Monitoring in Iran.
Whilst Iran compliance to the deal has been certified by IAEA , 5+1 commitments have remained to be fulfilled yet and Iran in numerous times has warned all parties involved in this deal to comply to deal as they expect Iran to adhere to it, for example this the letter that was sent for high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and Security policy by Iran FM Mr. Javad Zarif:
On the other hand the new president in oval office has threaten to kill the deal. Trump considers the JCPoA “the worst deal ever” and presented the Europeans with a false choice: either kill the deal with me, or I’ll kill it alone. On 12 Jan 2018 Trump waived a raft of sanctions against Iran as required under a 2015 nuclear agreement but warned European allies and Congress it will be the last such waiver he signs if they fail to agree to radical changes.
Trump has called for some amendments in the JCPoA in a way that:
1: To include no sunset clauses, which means all Iran's restrictions under the JCPoA must have no expiration dates and remain forever. The fact is some of the most severe restrictions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program begin expiring within the next decade.
2: Iran’s ballistic missile development be added.
3: Iran's regional activities be added "The agreement doesn’t do anything to address Iran’s sponsorship of terrorist groups or contributions to regional instability in places such as Yemen".
Iran has made it clear that the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other key world powers "cannot be renegotiated in any way," rejecting President Trump's threat to pull out of the agreement if the other parties do not fix its "disastrous flaws."
The problem with Trump's notion of renegotiation over the JCPoA is neglecting 2 facts:
1: To reach such an agreement the delegations of all involved countries in the talks agreed to limit negotiations to just nuclear issue in order to increase the chances of reaching an mutual understanding in the limited time due to complexity and time consuming of such a sensitive matter which eventually happened in 14 July 2015.
2: To build trust through fully commitment to the deal by all sides that could pave path and become basis for future negotiations over other critical issues between Iran and beneficiary countries.
Now we are in 2018, 2 years after the JCPoA Implementation Day (16 January 2016 ) not only 5+1 has not met its obligations under the deal yet they expect Iran to come to the negotiation table and discuss over its missile program and regional activities.
So far European countries have declared their fully support for the JCPoA and opposed renegotiation over it but recently have signaled their willingness to force Iran to engage in new round of negotiations about its missile program in order to save the JCPoA. It means European countries instead of forcing the US Gov to implement the deal wanna keep it alive by forcing Iran to accept more restrictions.
For Iran such a request is unacceptable for some obvious reasons:
1: First of all the JCPoA experience, Iran implemented nuclear deal completely and expected other side to do the same .. so far nothing happened. Iran does believe that not only no trust has been built since reaching agreement it has caused more concerns over the western countries' main objectives over deal.
2: Iran missile program: Iran is not a signatory of MTCR (missile technology control regime) or HCOC (The International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation also known as the Hague Code of Conduct) so sees no need to accept any limitation over its missile program.
Furthermore Iran indeed has some serious security concerns posed by the USA and allies in the region, how Iran could engage in talks about its defensive capabilities with a country that publicly seek regime change in Iran and doesn't miss a chance to target its interest regionally and globally or threats it by military option?
In fact Iran started its missile program in 80s during Iran-Iraq war to defend itself against Iraqi Scud missiles carrying chemical warheads showering Iranian cities killing thousands of civilians that was ignored by the UNSC for 10 years, a pure self-defense act by Iran.
The second and last time that Iran used its missile capability was again for a self-defense purpose and against isis terrorist group positions in Syria after a terrorist attack carried out by it in Tehran killing 17 and injuring more 50 Iranian citizens in 2017, A terrorist group that Iran considers as results of American and its allies destructive policies in the region. Iran has never used its missiles unless for self-defense against those whom attacked it first therefore Iran consider any attempt to categorize its missile capabilities as a threat to international peace and security ridicules and laughable.
Self-defense is an universal right and no one could deprive any nation from practicing it.
To do so countries need to have defensive means which either must be bought or made domestically. Due to American sanctions Iran can not buy any weapons and has no choice but to rely on its indigenous capabilities for example buying an air defense system that can not be used against anyone aka S-300 AD took Iran 10 years to receive from Russia due to American pressure let alone purchasing an offensive weapon like fighter jets.
While Iran is sanctioned by the US, American Gov. is doing its best to weaponize the region by selling hundreds billions $ worth of weaponry to the regional countries mostly involved and active in Iran-Iraq war, countries that supported Saddam Hussain the notorious former president of Iraq financially, politically and even by manpower during his invasion against Iran, not to mention the US direct involvement in the war for example shooting down Iranian Air Flight 655 resulted in death of 300 civilians or attacking Iranian oil platforms in the Persian gulf. Unfortunately these countries didn't take a lesson after invasion of Kuwait by Saddam and continued their unproductive policies toward Iran.
The next issue is the US activities in the region, the US has invaded Iran 2 neighboring countries, Iraq and Afghanistan, has military basis all around Iran and its fifth fleet of navy is ducked in southern part of Persian gulf in Bahrain. The US has threaten Iran by military option on the daily basis since revolution and sent its spy drones inside Iran airspace many have been shot down many more brought down.
The next issue is history of Iran, for the past 3 centuries Iran has not waged any war against anyone simply Iran has been peaceful but in the very same time has lost have of its territories invaded from north and south in both world wars ,its people were killed and dragged into the wars that they initially declared its neutral position, faced military coups and etc ...
3: Regional activities: When it comes to regional activities Iran has a consistence policy of building an internal security projected by regional countries without presence of external powers. While Iran sees external players as a problem and obstacle rather than solution western countries would always try to portray Iran roles in the region as a devil act and give it sectarian color and that's the place problems would start to raise. They see Iran as an obstacle for their new regional order. Actually Iran is the only nation-state capable to form and shape a front against American hegemony in the region, look what Henry Kissinger former the US secretary of state has to say before the senate Armed Services committee on January 25, 2018 :
In this regard, Iran has become the key contemporary challenge in the Middle East. Historically and politically, it has been the most consistently cohesive power of the region, the only one that preserved its language and historic culture during the Islamic conquest. Its present impact results from its emergence, in the eyes of many of the region's leaders, as a nuclear The threshold state in the aftermath of the JCPoA, a status seemingly conferred by that deal on Iran in 2015. Its reach is further enhanced by the subtle and the aggressive strategy of its leadership: on the one hand, defining Iran as a sovereign state within the UN system subject to its restraints and obligations; but on the other, identifying Iran as a revolutionary power attacking the existing world order. In that capacity, Iran's proxies in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq undermine or subsume existing governments.
Conclusion:
Under the JCPoA Iran has proven that it is ready to engage in serious talks as a trustworthy member of international community and country that would follow its commitment. Also Iran has been able to continue its R&D and work on new centrifuges "IR-8" that its capacity to enrich uranium is 20 times more than the existing "IR-1" machines which means if the US president decides to walk away from the deal the break-out time that was considered in JCPoA 1 year by Iran technological capabilities before the deal now would be longer than a political decision in Iran.
To sum up although the JCPoA has created an atmosphere for Iran to breath and a relief from sanctions, the main purpose of the deal wasn't curbing Iran nuclear program but it was a part of a bigger plan to achieve either regime change in Iran or bringing changes in Iran behavior. The same policy was taken by Regan administration towards the Soviet union in 80s, the Soviet Union engaged in negotiations to reach an agreement by west in order to build up its ailing economy. Years of negotiation and trusting western countries and trying to appease and placate the west resulted in nothing but collapse of a super power "the Soviet Union".
Now the US is trying to deploy the same policy, targeting Iran sources of power like Iran nuclear program, Iran missile program and Iran regional influence while engage Iran in not ending negotiation and promising sanctions relief that would never happen and meanwhile creating rift among Iranian. In fact the US policy is turning the JCPoA to Iran "Sword of Damocles" ... if Iran stop appeasing the west then the sword of sanctions would fall so to be safe from sanction Iran must cave in and meet American demands which means changing behavior .. therefore Iran either should accept American hegemony and get solved in new world order which in the US is the boss or stands for its values and face sanctions.
The only way to end this vicious cycle and to prevent the fate of the SU is looking inside, surly sanctions have hurt Iran economy but most of issues that prevent Iran's economy from flourishing mostly are domestic rather than external like corruption, management, waste of resources and ... The point is with or without the JCPoA, American policy towards Iran would always remain hostile if Iran doesn't change and secondly with or without the JCPoA Iran has to work and address the aforementioned internal factors that prevent Iran economy from booming.
