The Eagle
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The Indian Stance Pre/Post LoC Violation (so-called Surgical Strikes) and Realities.
By: @The Eagle
In view of recent LoC violation and an attempt to cross the border, it was submitted on point of LoC that due to tension on diplomatic level and the threats after Uri attack, both sides were watching each other closely. Threats were made to isolate the Pakistan (yet Russia and Iran joined us for exercises, Indonesian Defence Offer, Italian visiting Pakistan with respect to support in Defence Subject, Turkish offer to send observation team in IHK) and through stopping the water against IWT (China warned to stop Indian Waters) as well as an attempt to declare Pakistan as terrorist state (Bill in US cannot make it for consideration) that all those claims were proven lies and untenable. Although border is fully monitored but there are still gaps that can be exploited by either side due to the rugged terrain.
NoMO was having a tough time because of the exposure of Indian atrocities in IoK and continuous pressure building by Pakistan in UN and there was no agenda or any counter diplomatic offense from Indian side to bring it down or to avoid international pressure.
Before the same point, India tried to highlight the Baluchistan issue as well as GB but was paid with no heed from anyone even many nations ignored the same, favouring Pakistan stance. . India failed to divert the international attention from IHK atrocities though Modi’s speech about Balochistan & Northern Areas on its republic day. Due to Pakistani efforts OIC, UNHRC and general secretary expressed their concern about use of Indian violence in Kashmir valley. Seeing this, India choose to drop Balochistan in UN. Afterward, to avoid such international pressure, knowing the opposition in UN and to counter the internal questions post UN pressure by Indian Opposition parties, GoI executed the plane to play it down in UN while achieving different goals by Uri attack.
India habitually blamed Pakistan right after the Uri attack by Kashmiri freedom fighters based on alleged recovery of weapons with Pakistani markings by Indian DGMO in his briefing which can’t be used as a proof. Weapons of any origin can be easily acquired hence can’t be used as a proof against a country. Daesh, TTP & Al Qaeda for example routinely use American gear & Weapons in their terror attacks that doesn’t mean they have American support.
What happened in UN and how Pakistan raised the Kashmir issue in given time and the way Indian allegations were answered by Pakistan (Ambassador Maliha Lodhi) are on record. The one must keep in view that by going through the speech of India in UN (Sushma Sawaraj), it is very clear to understand that Uri gave a breathing room to India in UN session otherwise, there was no agenda except the usual blames that many of nations did not pay any heed. The conclusion and central idea of speech is nothing but based upon the blames as against Pakistan mostly evolved around Uri attack and India used the Uri incident to move the attention away from the atrocities committed by its forces in the valley forcefully blaming Pakistan without proof or substance.
After the same UN session, many alongwith usual opposition started to build more pressure upon NaMO in India. The analysists realized that Kashmir issue cannot be resolved by applying military force but there are weaknesses from GoI side that is still unable to handle the matter. NaMO realizing the situation that even after an attempt to release the pressure through Uri attack and blames upon Pakistan did not work well, being under pressure, made further promises to calm the people by threatening to teach a lesson to Pakistan and avenge the death of Indian soldiers. Believing the growing US-India relations, Modi’s governance is under scrutiny and due to domestic pressure he has continued with anti Pakistan rhetoric reaching a point of no return by threatening surgical strikes. India was hoping an open support from America but its response has been measured and it has avoided taking sides for now due to Pakistani help needed regarding Afghanistan.
To release the internal political pressure, divert the focus of international forums from Kashmir to anti-Pakistan platform and to gain the lost support and political mandate by fearing the loss in next election and growing power of opposition with respect to Kashmir, the plan made to execute a minor stunt to show that what NaMO promised is actually delivered. To utilize every bit of such plans and that too when it is mostly planned for political gains, calm the public and push away the Pakistan on diplomatic front, Indian forces were moved to the borders which included some military maneuvering to suggest imminent action against Pakistan which has been fed to the Indian public. This was all done to support the alleged surgical strike claim which was made later.
The part of prior script and making a ground for post attempt of crossing the LoC was designed from day first as many equipment moved to front lines as well as manpower. Continuous flying by choppers and UAV for surveillance and keep it warm as to be witnessed while media with full swing was making headlines of such movement near LoC. Adding to this, from undisclosed source it was informed about the crash of one UAV in Rajistan area on Indian side though no breaking news made it. However, to add the topping on such preparedness of IA based upon planned crossing, IAF has been making noise and sorties made to make it sure as to be portrayed for so called surgical strike that would be undertaken through cover of IAF for inside drop and evac. On numerous occasions and PAF was already undertaking High Mark 2016 exercise throughout Pakistan as planned, was on high alert as well for such possible threatened strike and was closely monitoring the Airspace as well as was conducting sorties for any possible scenario by IAF of violating the airspace of Pakistan. Being aware of preparedness of Pakistan as tested through different means by IAF and IA, a short term crossing inside Pakistan and going out was planned to fulfill the promise and to ignore the humiliation afterward of failing before own people and international forum.
During the above planning (mostly understood through various statements and reports by media) Pakistan was expecting anything from any level that which can satisfy the ego of Indian Politics for ruling NaMO. Also, as the Kashmir cause was very effectively presented by Pakistan, in short, it was expected like of counter to the same cause by any mean or offensive. It was expected through many means including a terrorist attack inside Pakistan as well. During the growing activity on Indian Side at Border as usual tactics, there was close watch on every moment. As I stated above, there are few points for either parties to be defined as weak or soft spots because of rugged terrain but LoC is continuously monitored especially when there were reports of any stunt of coming in, hitting here and there and leaving based upon threats. Finally India prepared and executed a cross border intrusion on 4 named points as a surprise element but as this side was already on high alert, made it sure that enemy cannot make it inside Pakistan. Such raid was not just defended against but neutralized in well manner, causing heavy damage to intruders and forcing them back to their points though 2 martyred at Pakistani side that were at front observing post while India received many casualties (number not disclosed till now through several sources stated as 14 by 8 and 6 on two different points) pretty much validate the readiness and Intel against such attempt to cross the LoC by India as well as including one PoW namely Chohan of RR. The Indian monitoring post/officers that once realized the failing and surprise element by PA, started artillery fire on Pakistani posts to give it a cover to the Indian party under fire and divert the PA that intruders can make it back. Indian intrusion attempts at 4 locations were successfully repulsed. An Indian solider was also captured and unconfirmed number of Indian killed. There were two Pakistani causalities in Bhimbar and Tutta Pani due to Indian artillery shelling. India called its artillery shelling a surgical strike.
As the script was prepared and becoming aware of the result after attack under the artillery fire, the Indian DGMO was tasked to conduct an immediate Press Conference and claim the so-called surgical strike that take months or so the declared as failed or lies or may be not due to passage of time may fade away. The selection of DGMO for briefing the political parties pretty much validate to sell the story on face value as NaMO has lost credibility among political and social circle in India same as like in times of Uri attack whereby the same DGMO is discredit by NIA for the claim of Pakistani markings on recovered weapons.
Many of third party sources shared their findings and reported the reality through media which includes UN as well that there was no such observation of so-called strikes in any area of Kashmir and life is continue as usual. Neither the mourning is witnessed nor any sadness observed in any part of Kashmir as claimed by India. India claimed to have evidences yet does not disclosed any sort of such thing but made tall claims and statements through media hype for pure public consumption. DG ISPR (Pakistan) visited the area as well as invited International Press to observe and check against the Indian claims of such strikes that everything remained unchanged and is in routine. No such bodies found as claimed by India that almost neutralized 45 or so s-called terrorists and destroyed their launching pads. It is pertinent to mention here that there needs to be a scar even the patient doesn’t know about surgery hence there needs to be the sign of any such destruction or hitting the target as India claimed but none found hence no such strikes but an attempt to cross the border.
It is well established that NaMO has been making such claims in past as well as blaming almost everything to Pakistan just to satisfy the public that voted him on the basis of anti-Pakistan stance. It is pertinent to mention here that no Pakistani leader ever run the campaign on anti-India mandate that validates the stance and approach for such planning and possible scenarios of propaganda by NaMO that was based upon all the diversions from reality created through propaganda for the purpose of defamation of Pakistan and support to anti-Pakistan elements in India to have political gains and power. The crafted video claim is more probably based upon the raids taken inside IoK by IA against the freedom fighters located in thick jungles and most probably the same would be helmet cam so the area wouldn't be recognized hence chosen night time to validate the false claim of surgical strike as well as to propagate the baseless claim. We also need to keep in view the media warfare in current times and invasion of such mean that India is much advanced in the same field that is playing a major role against Pakistan.
It is clear that NaMO has failed to handle many of the matters through political strategies and diplomacy and adopted the same practice that once he applied in Gujrat for the support of selective people/group for a short time gain. Such political background speaks volume about predicted moves of NaMO against any rival whether it is internal or external yet all the unrest and instability. Now for the time being, the focus is diverted from Kashmir atrocities to the LoC fire and clash whereby on other side, despite of political solution and to redress the grievances in Kashmir, NaMO pave another way to apply more force in IoK to silence the protests of Kashmiris for their rights and justice while on other hand to avoid the stress and pressure created by opposition in India.
In view of political gains that instant cross border violation by India also benefited the current political elite in Pakistan that is under immense pressure by opposition as well as journalists and think tanks with respect to its competence and lack of diplomatic approach before recent shift. We may be aware that when it comes to political gains to be remain in power, everything seems fair to the corrupt elite mostly and as both the leaders are well acquainted with each other, such violation by NaMO indirectly favoured the NS government as well per say that Country is going through crucial times whereby pressure was built based upon corruption, leaks and incompetence to be diverted and ultimately would be favouring the NS. It is to be kept in view that whenever the opposition in Pakistan as well as in India raises the unavoidable issues under the contexts that cannot be ignored due to the security and for sake of the nation, these diversions starts to appear in no time. NaMO was under pressure for Kashmir mishandling hence Uri and blames to release the pressure as well as threats to Pakistan on other hand benefited the NS to divert the focus of Pakistani people from incompetence and corruptions. We must keep in mind that there have been several sources quoting COAS stance against terrorism as well corruption that incompetent lot of current ruling party was not able to digest nor bear it while seeking opportunity to demonize the institute or to the extent whereby NS can politicize the same in his favour.
In today's world and time, denying such so-called attacks is neither feasible nor plausible and even if GoP tried to put things or reality under the wrap against what told to the people, it would be shown and disclosed by many sources that GoP has no command or authority over such. Indeed, it would be visible and clear for everyone to understand the false and propagated stance of any of the parties from both sides though onus of to prove the claim lies upon the shoulders of the claimed party. Still there are things that both the parties are not disclosing or may be the one but in view of the circumstances and after perusal of available of record, it reveals that NaMO has failed to prove what he claimed yet pushed India into more of defensive stage and to the corner that need a large reshaping of internal politics to gain the stance prior to current state of affairs whereby India is mostly portrayed as aggressive party on the subject of Kashmir and approach towards regional sovereign powers. Availing this opportunity and as the change in diplomatic front of Pakistan that is visible throughout recent development, it is pertinent to highlight the current stance of GoI in front of the international forum without any fail or delay.
