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The Great Game Folio : Silk Routes

Indo-guy

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The great Game Folio: Silk routes | The Indian Express | Page 99


" There is a huge difference, of course, between agreeing to discuss and collaborating with China on large transborder projects."

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Delhi also appears to be ready to consider positively Beijing’s invitation last week to join China in the construction of a “Maritime Silk Route” between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Reuters



SILK ROUTES
As China reconfigures India’s neighbourhood through its active promotion of new silk routes — over the Great Himalayas and across the Indian Ocean — New Delhi must make up its mind on how best to respond. That Delhi is shedding some of its past defensiveness is evident from the UPA government’s recent decision to discuss the Chinese proposal for the so-called BCIM Corridor that will integrate eastern India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and southwestern China. Delhi also appears to be ready to consider positively Beijing’s invitation last week to join China in the construction of a “Maritime Silk Route” between the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
There is a huge difference, of course, between agreeing to discuss and collaborating with China on large transborder projects. China has been pushing the BCIM corridor at least since the late 1990s. India’s default position was to duck and fume. The reluctance in Delhi’s foreign and security establishments against any overland connectivity projects with Beijing has been deep and is tied to the difficult political relationship and unresolved boundary dispute. Delhi has also been wary of China’s growing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean, which it sees as India’s backyard.
While Delhi fretted, China has over the last decade and a half dramatically expanded its connectivity over land and sea with India’s neighbours in the subcontinent. In the north, China built the spectacular Tibet Railway to Lhasa and is planning to extend it to Nepal. To the east, Beijing plans to build road and rail connections to Bangladesh through Myanmar. China has built a twin pipeline system that will move oil and natural gas from Myanmar’s Arakan coast to the Yunnan province. It also has plans to build a road and rail corridor parallel to the pipelines.
In the west, China is modernising the trans-Karakoram highway, linking China’s Xinjiang province and Pakistan’s northern territories. It is now ready to invest billions of dollars to develop what is being called the “Kashgar Corridor” that will connect Xinjiang province with the Arabian Sea. In the south, China has built new ports in Hambantota, Sri Lanka and Gwadar, Pakistan. As its economic interests grow rapidly in the Indian Ocean, Beijing is looking to develop maritime infrastructure all across the littoral as part of a new maritime silk route.
INSULAR INDIA
Together, the Chinese projects compel us to rethink our long-held assumptions about India’s physical space. The Great Himalayas are no longer a protective barrier for the subcontinent, as Chinese economic power now radiates out of inner Asia and connects markets and peoples that were once considered remote.
In the Indian Ocean, we have focused for centuries on Western primacy. As China becomes the world’s foremost trading nation with an increasingly powerful navy, Beijing is all set to redefine India’s maritime environment. In boldly re-engineering the subcontinent’s physical environment, Beijing is behaving much like the British Raj, which sought to open new trade routes between India and inner Asia and develop connectivity with Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan.
The difference, of course, is in the scale of the resources that China can mobilise today. If Beijing is reviving the Raj tradition, Delhi has largely forgotten it. If Partition physically shrunk India and separated it from many adjoining regions, an inward-looking economic policy devalued external transport corridors.
India has finally woken up in recent years to the implications of Chinese infrastructure projects in the subcontinent and beyond. Although Delhi now mutters the mantra of connectivity, its ability to turn words into deeds has been less than impressive.
CHINA PLUS
In responding to China’s silk route development around the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, Delhi must discard any residual notion that it can build a “great wall” against Chinese economic influence in its neighbourhood. Nor should India believe economic cooperation with China will in itself help resolve Delhi’s other political disputes with Beijing. The next government in Delhi must outline a bold vision for connectivity in India’s frontier regions and across borders and identify a set of ambitious projects. If China can be useful in implementing some of them, Delhi must go ahead without any political hesitation.
For India, China is not the only option. Japan has been eager to build corridors between India and Southeast Asia. Multilateral institutions like the Asian Development Bank have long been eager to develop transborder projects between India and its neighbours. It is Delhi that has fallen short until now in geo-economic imagination and pragmatic project implementation.
The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, Delhi and a contributing editor
for ‘The Indian Express’
 
@Indo-guy how r u mate
i guess you are visiting prasun's blog lately.

regards

Yes , I am fine. thanks to you ... Picked up the link for this article from Mr Prasun's blog ...liked the analysis ...so just posted here . My preliminary interest lies in International politics and diplomacy .
I believe " Real battles begins , ends as well as are fought and won first in a diplomatic game of chess board ! "
 
My preliminary interest lies in International politics and diplomacy .
I believe " Real battles begins , ends as well as are fought and won first in a diplomatic game of chess board ! "

exactly same here

If you dig up the old blogs of his, you will find very interesting and constructive analysis of regional politics
if I get my hand on it, I would definitely share it with you.
 
sure ...most of our so called Diplomatic experts like Mr Bhadra kumar , Brahma Chellany, Col Athalye etc and so on seem quite appealing at times ...but not all the times... in fact sometimes they seem absolutely off board as regards to their analysis .

It will be great to read Mr Prasun's analysis ....

I like Einstein's statement where he says " My Brain is my best laboratory" ...he was famous for his thought experiments ...

and Diplomacy is nothing but a shrewd exercise of mind over matter ...

Some of the historical perspectives tell us how a great many wars were averted or precipitated won or lost because either application of tacit diplomacy or its abject failure ...
I find it very interesting ...

I can also share some engaging articles if you are interested ...
 
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China's maritime 'silk road' proposals are not as peaceful as they seem

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China’s proposition of a maritime silk route connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans is part of its propaganda drive to convince the world about its peaceful rise.

Its actions do not match its protestations, but that does not deter China from proclaiming that its rise will be free from clashes, unlike in the past when rising powers challenged existing hegemonies.

China uses the silk route memory to serve its interests, ambitions and image in several ways.

The historical silk route recalls China’s role in world trade and the prize attached to its products by the rest of the world, in past generations.

The silk road represented China’s economic superiority then, one that it seeks to regain in today’s context when it has become the world’s second-largest economy and its biggest exporter.

Connectivity

The silk road symbolised China’s connectivity with the outside world. Connectivity, indeed, is the focus of China’s current economic and trade strategy.

It is building east-west relationships, with oil and gas pipelines linking it to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It is building north-south connections to South East Asia, Myanmar and Pakistan.

Through the latter two it is building connectivity to the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, partially resolving its Malacca dilemma.

Yunnan and Sinkiang will draw the adjoining regions to which they are being connected into the Chinese economic orbit given their less developed state, China’s economic dynamism, its tremendous export capacities and hunger for natural resources.

China is trying to rope India into its connectivity strategies through proposals such as the Bangadesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor linking Yunnan with our north-east.

India has been promoting east-west connections through Myanmar, Thailand and on to Vietnam, to balance China’s north-south connections to South-East Asia.

We have had concerns about Chinese inroads into Myanmar. The BCIM corridor project counters our strategy and yet we are supporting it.

We are ignoring the danger of exposing our north-east to China, an area inadequately integrated with India, parts of which China claims as its own territory and where China has been involved in past insurgencies, not to mention the gun running from Yunnan to local insurgents that continues to a degree.

Even if, as part of our policy of furthering our engagement with China, we prefer not to be seen as opposing the project openly, the easy manner in which we accept such Chinese agendas is questionable.

Strategy

Having seen the silk road idea working well politically on Asia’s continental landmass – with the US touting the concept of a New Silk Road linking Central Asia to South Asia – China now proposes a maritime silk route linking it to Asia.

The memory of Admiral Zhang’s sea-voyages in the early 15th century to south-east Asia, India, Hormuz and the Somalian littoral will no doubt be invoked by China to emphasise the historical basis of its peaceful forays to these distant Asian shores.

The concept of a maritime silk route seeks to present China’s maritime strategy in a peaceful light, as being motivated purely by commercial considerations.

The word “silk” evokes softness and affluence. This is a belated counter to the misgiving – in India certainly – about the so-called “string of pearls” strategy being pursued by China to expand its presence in the Indian Ocean.

The port facilities China is obtaining or building in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan, while justifiable from the Chinese point of view to buttress its huge external trade flowing in large part through the Indian Ocean, raise concerns about China encircling us physically and politically, changing our bilateral equation further to our disadvantage, thereby making it still more difficult for us to resolve our problems with it equitably.

China will, inevitably, follow up with its commercial footholds in the Indian Ocean with naval ones. The purpose of China’s naval expansion is precisely to create strategic space for itself in western Pacific and then move into the Indian Ocean gradually, in preparation for which China is learning to operate far from its shores for quite some time now, in the Gulf of Aden, for instance.

Cynicism

The cynicism behind China’s proposal is glaring in the light of its aggressive posture in the western Pacific.

The maritime silk route begins in tension ridden waters, with China contesting Japanese sovereignty over the Senkakus and undercutting it internationally by declaring an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea that covers these islands.

China has made illegal claims to large swathes of the South China Sea, embroiling it in strife with several south-east Asian countries.

It now threatens to declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea too, aggravating the situation for its neighbours and the international community at large.

China must first settle these issues amicably before its maritime silk route proposal has political credibility.

India has been invited to join the Chinese proposal in what is clearly a bid to unsettle it diplomatically.

If India joins – we seem to have reportedly accepted the invitation – it will be endorsing China’s maritime initiatives in the Indian Ocean, including its strategic objectives in developing Gwadar, not to mention its sizeable investments in Sri Lanka.

China is also skillfully trying to counter Japanese premier Abe’s Indo-Pacific concept – which has pronounced security undertones – with a mollifying silk route concept linking the two oceans.

The American interest in India in the context of its re-balance towards Asia has a strong maritime content, reflected not only in frequent naval exercises between the Indian and US navies in the Indian Ocean, but also US exhortations to India to “act east”.

China’s maritime silk route proposal is too self-serving to receive our support.

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/...d-proposals-are-not-as-peaceful-as-they-seem/
 
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