The F35 will be cancelled before 500 planes are made (prediction by Pierre Sprey)

[C130]

good watch. Russian expert giving his thoughts on the F-35 and the naysayers.

 

[Freyja]

An expert group formed by the Danish Ministry of Defence last month concluded that the F-35 Lightning was a better option than Eurofighter's Typhoon or Boeing Co.'s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.

This is kind of a problem though. They didn't decide after a fly-off, they did it this way.

...

F-35 Beats Every Other Fighter Jet In Scandinavian Air Force Evaluations

After evaluating the Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and Lockheed Martin F-35 as Denmark’s next primary fighter jet, the country’s government is recommending the F-35 “unequivocally” as superior in “strategic, military, economic, and industrial aspects.” Is this a needed win for this troubled jet?

That’s the exact language from the Danish government, which has posted an entire website explaining how they decided that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is far and away the best possible plane to replace the country’s current fighting fleet of F-16s.

Those jets have been flying for about 35 years, and are approaching the end of their usable lifespan according to an executive summary about picking Denmark’s next top jet fighter.

The Danish testing methods did not involve sending all three jets into the sky and seeing which could take the other two down or blow more stuff up first (a shame, I know.) The comparison was conducted hypothetically– with expert panels comparing the three jets’ functional abilities and economic models developed to tabulate lifecycle costs. Saab’s Gripen NG was initially on the short list as well, but retracted by Swedish authorities.

And apparently, in spite of the F-35's ongoing developmental issues and reputation for running over budget we’ve been hearing about for the past few years, the Danes are saying this jet beats the F/A-18 or Typhoon both on capability and cost.

The Danish government has officially recommended spending about $3 billion to procure a fleet of 27 F-35s. In combat, their studies cite “the low radar signature of the aircraft as well as the application of advanced systems and sensors that enhance the pilot’s tactical overview and ensure the survival of the aircraft and efficient mission performance” as major advantages.

This combat comparison scores all three jets on four aspects, which the Danish government defined as follows:

• Survivability: How well the fighter aircraft is capable of protecting itself against enemy weapon systems
  
• Mission Effectiveness: How well the fighter aircraft performs the task assigned.
  
• Future Development: The extent to which the fighter aircraft is expected to constitute a relevant operational and technically applicable fighter aircraft capability throughout its entire 30-year lifespan.
  
• Candidate risk: The risks that cannot be quantified economically.

The Danes have also decided that the F-35 will be significantly cheaper than the F/A-18 or Typhoon, mainly because they won’t have to buy as many jets in total.

Specifically citing that “the airframe of the Joint Strike Fighter is designed to be capable of flying 8,000 hours, whereas the Eurofighter and the Super Hornet are both designed to fly 6,000 hours,” the Danish government has determined that 28 F-35s can do the work of 34 Typhoons or 38 F/A-18s. Though the same documents actually recommend only 27 F-35s actually be purchased.

DefenseNews reports that Denmark has been shopping for an F-16 replacement for some time.

The competition was in its early stages in 2010 when economic woes forced the government to pause the program. It was officially re-launched in 2013, but with a reduced buy — 30 fighters instead of 48.

Denmark’s purchase of the new F-35s will still have to be approved in the country’s parliament, and debates are expected to last up to a month. That will be another opportunity for criticism of the jet’s continuously rising cost and development issues to surface, we’ll see how it plays out either way for this Scandinavian air force soon.

Meanwhile Denmark is sending some of their still-flying F-16s and 400 troops to Iraq and Syria as reported by The Local and others.

...

I trust my nation's test pilots, but an expert panel and no in-flight comparisons? No a chance I'm trusting that.

Tomorrow if say India wants to buy F-35 and it has a major beef with Norway or Turkey then could it effect supply and future maintenance of F-35s even if US Govt and LM are committed to India?

This depends on how far the technologies manufactured by nations other then the US have proliferated to the maintenance groups around the world. Norway manufactures the skin of the F-35, unlike the F-22, the F-35 doesn't use a RAM coating, but a baked in RAM material.

If you anger us, and damage the skin, we'd likely not help you repair it. Right? But if other maintenance groups, say in Japan or Turkey have access to the skin's formulas and manufacturing/maintenance requirements and processes, then it wouldn't be too much of an issue if one partner is refusing to help service the air-frame.

The question is who has access to that info? Who outside of Norway knows how to service this component?

No one really knows.

...

Why on Earth would anyone seek to make us poor little Nordics angry.

 

[anon45]

This is kind of a problem though. They didn't decide after a fly-off, they did it this way.

The Danish testing methods did not involve sending all three jets into the sky and seeing which could take the other two down or blow more stuff up first (a shame, I know.) The comparison was conducted hypothetically– with expert panels comparing the three jets’ functional abilities and economic models developed to tabulate lifecycle costs. Saab’s Gripen NG was initially on the short list as well, but retracted by Swedish authorities.

And apparently, in spite of the F-35's ongoing developmental issues and reputation for running over budget we’ve been hearing about for the past few years, the Danes are saying this jet beats the F/A-18 or Typhoon both on capability and cost.


I trust my nation's test pilots, but an expert panel and no in-flight comparisons? No a chance I'm trusting that.

Denmark is planning on purchasing the Full production models of the Jet in 2021, there is absolutely no way to test the FRP model against a Super-Hornet or Eurofighterbecause none exists, the aircraft is currently in late stage development and testing. Waiting until the F-35 FRP is out to decide would leave Denmark with a fighter gap (or more likely, using outdated and rickety aircraft) like Canada will have. Choosing a Super Hornet or Eurofighter would leave Denmark with a 4th generation fighter in a world that is moving on, having to soak up the costs of production because the big players are not buying, for an inevitably inferior aircraft (except under specific circumstances), whereas with the F-35 there is such economies of scale that Denmark can be assured that there will be a deep commitment to upgrades that they can piggyback on.

Besides that, there should be no real reason to fly the aircraft in exercises for comparison purposes, This would be extra money and years spent planning and carrying out the tests, The characteristics of the Super Hornet and the Eurofighter are presumably well known to Denmark, and they have the experiences of allied pilots to draw upon, all of which say the F-35 is game-changing.

As for developmental issues, obviously it will have developmental issues, its in development! All aircraft have developmental issues in development, you know this.

Denmark is presumably getting the version where most of these issues have been worked out in 2021

Since the program was rebaselined in 2011 the program has not been over budget as well.

Also the experts are just that, experts. Though I don't know their exact qualifications, I believe in the professionalism of the Danish MoD, so I am confident they made the decision to the best of their ability.

They certainly have more authority to judge than any of us on here.

If you haven't already, I highly recommend you skim through th evaluation report I posted earlier. I am still working my way through it as well.

 

[21 Dec 2012]

Ha.
Nice to see that ol' Suoer Hornet can still spank the best of Eurobird and well under budget

 

[mil-avia]

Todd Harrison, a defense budget expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the F-35 program could take a major hit in the next decade.

“I think the F-35 will be a big target for reductions in the early 2020s simply because it is a big program that is crowding out funding for other priorities,” he said. “I would bet it does not reach the full level of production currently planned.”

 

[mil-avia]

Denmark's Fighter Jet Selection To Likely Cause Political Furor

 

[mil-avia]

Targets of Chinese hacking have ranged from classified details of the F-35 jet fighter radar and engine schematics

 

[mil-avia]

Where is the Money Going? - F-35 Fighter Jet Program, Touted as Affordable, is Far from It, as Lockheed Raises Prices at Will

 

[Penguin]

http://www.defenseone.com/technolog...set-quadruple-massive-factory-retools/128120/

production is poised to explode. This year, Lockheed will build 53 F-35s here and at another assembly facility in Italy, pushing the worldwide total past 200. That’s more than the Air Force has F-22 Raptors.By 2020, one year after the Fort Worth plant hits its full 17-jet-per-month stride, there will be more than 600 F-35s, including nearly 180 sent to U.S. allies.

 

[mil-avia]

The F-35 Program Is A Project Management Disaster

 

[mil-avia]

Inverting the Paradigm: The 21st Century High-Low Force

 

[mil-avia]

The Air Force is cannibalizing parts from some F-16's to keep other F-16's flying and is pulling parts off museum planes to keep their B-1 bombers flying. And half of Air Force squadrons are not prepared for serious combat.

 

[mil-avia]

Boeing Disputes Denmark’s F-35 Evaluation

 

[mil-avia]

How Lockheed Martin's Grand Plan for the F-35 Fell Apart

 

[mil-avia]

'Wiped Out': Air Force losing pilots and planes to cuts, scrounging for spare parts