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BEIJING - In the age of globalization, two Asian giants -- China and India -- are rising. As the two countries, both BRIC economies, celebrate their 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year, one cannot help asking: What does the 21st century hold for the two populous neighbors -- competition or cooperation?
Opinion polls indicate the percentage of Indians and Chinese holding favorable views towards the other is quite similar. But Chinese people's knowledge of their close neighbor is lacking.
According to the Horizon Research Consultancy Group, the percentage of Chinese people who held a favorable opinion of India ranged from 48.7 percent in 2006 to 45.4 percent in 2009. Less than two percent of Chinese think India is the strongest member of BRIC in terms of comprehensive national strength. And less than one percent believe India will be the strongest in ten years' time.
The 25-nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey found that from 2007-2009 India's favorable view toward China stood at a steady 46 percent. A total of 33 percent of Indians believe China will one day replace the United States as the world's leading economic power while 43 percent of Indians view China as a partner rather than rival.
Brushing aside media reports that have stressed border disputes, trade frictions or visa issues, Dr.S.Jaishankar,the Indian Ambassador to China, said its better to focus attention on the relationship itself.
"We have a lot of things in common. We share two thousand years of history. We have strong cultural links. Today trade itself has been very positive. We have half a million people coming. We have more air links and many more exchanges."
China and India joined hands last year during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, effectively presenting the stance of emerging economies and developing countries on climate change.
"What we saw in Copenhagen was that it underlined that we have similarities and shared interests. It demonstrates that India and China can actually work very closely together, and if we do that, we protect our interests better," said Jaishankar during the 2nd China-India Forum held in Beijing in mid-May.
Zhou Gang, former Chinese Ambassador to India, believes the two countries have arrived at an important junction and that it is crucial to "further deepen mutual understanding, especially to enhance political trust and to deepen the strategic,constructive partnership between our two countries."
He said aside from increased number of visits by parliamentarians, local governments, political parties and ordinary people, high-level dialogue on security and defense, as well as joint military exercises, are key to building political trust.
There should also be more bilateral cooperation on major international and regional issues like environment protection, food and energy security, as well as through the G20 and BRIC meetings, Zhou added.
According to Dr. Binod Singh from the India Studies Center, Beijing University, the attitude of Indians towards China can be categorized into three levels -- "The people in India, they love China; the military, they think China is the challenge; but the politicians, they think China is a competitor."
"The dialogue between China and India should be dialogue of civilizations. It should start from when Buddhism came to China," he said.
"Why do we get stuck in just last 60 years? Let's go beyond that, and for that we need to talk about our history, history of Buddhism." Singh suggests letting Buddhism and culture be the things that bring the two neighbors together.
On the economic front, although China has been in the spotlight over the last decade for its rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, analysts caution against complacency.
"The problem is that some of the growth in China is not sustainable. It is achieved at the expense of household consumption, the environment and resources. China has a very resource-intensive growth strategy. But in the long run, all countries that became rich did so not because they had more resources, but because of efficiency," said Yasheng Huang, professor of political economy at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The biggest difference between China and India, Huang said, is the much bigger emphasis on the private sector in India compared to China. Private enterprises are able to raise financing, invest funds, acquire technology and enjoy a better operating environment. Return on capital and investment is higher in India than in China.
"The relationship between the private sector and government is not as close as sometimes in China. Sometimes it's antagonistic. But the whole idea of the market economy is that the government provides the public goods the private sector cannot provide, with the private sector being left alone to produce goods and services and make investments," he noted.
In China, on the other hand, the private sector has grown rapidly because of reforms and political support from local governments.
"The problem in China is that China has a huge state sector, which is very powerful politically and financially. Sometimes it's crowding out private sector development. And China relies far more on foreign direct investment than India, and so China definitely has to think very hard about its growth strategy. It cannot continue to grow like this, " Huang added.
While some argue for stronger bilateral ties between China and India to usher in a new age of mutual development in the years ahead, there are also voices calling for a triangular dialogue with the United States as a part of the strategic partnership.
Dr Sreeram Chaulia, executive director of the Center for Global Governance and Policy at Jindal Global University in India, presented a joint paper during the 2nd China-India Forum with his deputy, Jonathan Burton-MacLeod, in which they argued there is a tremendous opportunity for China and India to eliminate misunderstandings by taking each other seriously and understanding that the relationship between the two is not independent of their respective relationships with the United States.
"There is more openness and pragmatism on the part of the Obama administration to engage with all partners. Looking towards global governance as a larger issue, and I think it is time India and China did the same thing. And that doesn't ice out the US in terms of that dialogue. It just changes this great flow of communication and exchange of ideas between India and China," Burton-MacLeod said.
Unless India and China start to engage with those who are most crucial to their interests, and not necessarily their historical friends, "there will be a lag in the advancement for either country."
In Chaulia' s view, a comprehensive dialogue -- not limited to border-demarcation or economic issues -- about the respective roles of the two countries in the global context and in relation to the US will be a useful forum to mitigate some of the mistrust that is built up largely due to the growing gap in power and capabilities.
"China is already a great power. India is trying to be one. So clearly great powers have to engage. We must look beyond the immediate issues that are of concern to the two countries and look at China-India engagement or interface in Africa and Latin America."
According to Chaulia, studying and understanding China, trying to get behind the official words, reading between the lines and understanding the context in which Chinese decision making happens, is now a major preoccupation for India.
After all, he said, "at the end of the day, gaps in intentions and capabilities can lead to conflict and that's the last thing we want."
The Dragon and the Elephant: rivals or partners?
Opinion polls indicate the percentage of Indians and Chinese holding favorable views towards the other is quite similar. But Chinese people's knowledge of their close neighbor is lacking.
According to the Horizon Research Consultancy Group, the percentage of Chinese people who held a favorable opinion of India ranged from 48.7 percent in 2006 to 45.4 percent in 2009. Less than two percent of Chinese think India is the strongest member of BRIC in terms of comprehensive national strength. And less than one percent believe India will be the strongest in ten years' time.
The 25-nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey found that from 2007-2009 India's favorable view toward China stood at a steady 46 percent. A total of 33 percent of Indians believe China will one day replace the United States as the world's leading economic power while 43 percent of Indians view China as a partner rather than rival.
Brushing aside media reports that have stressed border disputes, trade frictions or visa issues, Dr.S.Jaishankar,the Indian Ambassador to China, said its better to focus attention on the relationship itself.
"We have a lot of things in common. We share two thousand years of history. We have strong cultural links. Today trade itself has been very positive. We have half a million people coming. We have more air links and many more exchanges."
China and India joined hands last year during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, effectively presenting the stance of emerging economies and developing countries on climate change.
"What we saw in Copenhagen was that it underlined that we have similarities and shared interests. It demonstrates that India and China can actually work very closely together, and if we do that, we protect our interests better," said Jaishankar during the 2nd China-India Forum held in Beijing in mid-May.
Zhou Gang, former Chinese Ambassador to India, believes the two countries have arrived at an important junction and that it is crucial to "further deepen mutual understanding, especially to enhance political trust and to deepen the strategic,constructive partnership between our two countries."
He said aside from increased number of visits by parliamentarians, local governments, political parties and ordinary people, high-level dialogue on security and defense, as well as joint military exercises, are key to building political trust.
There should also be more bilateral cooperation on major international and regional issues like environment protection, food and energy security, as well as through the G20 and BRIC meetings, Zhou added.
According to Dr. Binod Singh from the India Studies Center, Beijing University, the attitude of Indians towards China can be categorized into three levels -- "The people in India, they love China; the military, they think China is the challenge; but the politicians, they think China is a competitor."
"The dialogue between China and India should be dialogue of civilizations. It should start from when Buddhism came to China," he said.
"Why do we get stuck in just last 60 years? Let's go beyond that, and for that we need to talk about our history, history of Buddhism." Singh suggests letting Buddhism and culture be the things that bring the two neighbors together.
On the economic front, although China has been in the spotlight over the last decade for its rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, analysts caution against complacency.
"The problem is that some of the growth in China is not sustainable. It is achieved at the expense of household consumption, the environment and resources. China has a very resource-intensive growth strategy. But in the long run, all countries that became rich did so not because they had more resources, but because of efficiency," said Yasheng Huang, professor of political economy at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The biggest difference between China and India, Huang said, is the much bigger emphasis on the private sector in India compared to China. Private enterprises are able to raise financing, invest funds, acquire technology and enjoy a better operating environment. Return on capital and investment is higher in India than in China.
"The relationship between the private sector and government is not as close as sometimes in China. Sometimes it's antagonistic. But the whole idea of the market economy is that the government provides the public goods the private sector cannot provide, with the private sector being left alone to produce goods and services and make investments," he noted.
In China, on the other hand, the private sector has grown rapidly because of reforms and political support from local governments.
"The problem in China is that China has a huge state sector, which is very powerful politically and financially. Sometimes it's crowding out private sector development. And China relies far more on foreign direct investment than India, and so China definitely has to think very hard about its growth strategy. It cannot continue to grow like this, " Huang added.
While some argue for stronger bilateral ties between China and India to usher in a new age of mutual development in the years ahead, there are also voices calling for a triangular dialogue with the United States as a part of the strategic partnership.
Dr Sreeram Chaulia, executive director of the Center for Global Governance and Policy at Jindal Global University in India, presented a joint paper during the 2nd China-India Forum with his deputy, Jonathan Burton-MacLeod, in which they argued there is a tremendous opportunity for China and India to eliminate misunderstandings by taking each other seriously and understanding that the relationship between the two is not independent of their respective relationships with the United States.
"There is more openness and pragmatism on the part of the Obama administration to engage with all partners. Looking towards global governance as a larger issue, and I think it is time India and China did the same thing. And that doesn't ice out the US in terms of that dialogue. It just changes this great flow of communication and exchange of ideas between India and China," Burton-MacLeod said.
Unless India and China start to engage with those who are most crucial to their interests, and not necessarily their historical friends, "there will be a lag in the advancement for either country."
In Chaulia' s view, a comprehensive dialogue -- not limited to border-demarcation or economic issues -- about the respective roles of the two countries in the global context and in relation to the US will be a useful forum to mitigate some of the mistrust that is built up largely due to the growing gap in power and capabilities.
"China is already a great power. India is trying to be one. So clearly great powers have to engage. We must look beyond the immediate issues that are of concern to the two countries and look at China-India engagement or interface in Africa and Latin America."
According to Chaulia, studying and understanding China, trying to get behind the official words, reading between the lines and understanding the context in which Chinese decision making happens, is now a major preoccupation for India.
After all, he said, "at the end of the day, gaps in intentions and capabilities can lead to conflict and that's the last thing we want."
The Dragon and the Elephant: rivals or partners?
