Ten questions

[Nilgiri]

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/621814-ten-questions

Ten questions

Dr Farrukh Saleem

First question: The Monthly Review on Price Indices by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) states that over the past 12 months the prices of ‘perishable food items’ have gone by a hefty 78 percent. Can the government please explain why the prices of perishable food items have gone up an unprecedented 78 percent?

Question 2: The prices of ‘perishable food items’ in rural areas have gone up by 90 percent. Can the government please explain why the prices of perishable food items have gone up by 90 percent in rural areas?

Question 3: The government allowed the export of 470,322 tons of wheat (July-Jan 2018-19). Now the government has decided to import 500,000 tons of wheat. Why? The government allowed the export of 276,000 tons of sugar (July-Jan 2018-19). Now the government has decided to import 300,000 tons of sugar. Why?

Question 4: When the PML-N left, the price of flour was Rs44 a kilogram. Our honourable Minister of National Food Security and Research Makhdoom Khusro Bukhtiar told us that there is ‘sufficient wheat stock to meet all our needs’. Why did the price of flour go up to Rs70 a kilogram?

Question 5: Fourteen months ago, the price of sugar stood at Rs53 a kilogram. The price has since jumped to Rs80 a kilogram, a 50 percent increase. Why has the price jumped from Rs53 a kilogram to Rs80 per kilogram in the past fourteen months?

Question 6: The PTI’s manifesto under chapter 3 promised to “alleviate poverty across Pakistan”. For the record, over the past year, around 8 million Pakistanis have dropped below the line of poverty. Can the government please explain why that has happened?

Question 7: The PTI’s manifesto under chapter 4 had pledged to “create 10 million jobs and strengthen the labor market”. Over the past year, around a million Pakistanis have lost their jobs. Can the government please explain why that has happened?

Question 8: Over the past six weeks, the OPEC basket price has dropped from $71 a barrel to $54 a barrel, a 24 percent decline. Will the price of petrol and diesel now come down by around Rs20 a liter?

Question 9: The PTI’s manifesto released in 2018 had promised to “depoliticize and strengthen police”. Has the process of depoliticizing and strengthening of the police begun? If not, why not?

Question 10: Other promises made in chapter 4 of the manifesto include ‘reforming FBR, fixing Pakistan’s energy challenge, transforming key economic institutions and reforming government procurement (chapter 2)’. Would the government please share the progress?

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh

@Norwegian @Socra @Jungibaaz

 

[El Sidd]

I like to phone a friend.

IMF please.

 

[Gorgin Khan]

Government started a massive devaluation drive in the name of increasing exports without having an industrial base or plan to do so. They expected that this devaluation will make labour cheap and it will lower the cost of Goods for exports thus reducing CAD . They brought down CAD down but actually by decreasing imports rather than increasing exports (causing GDP to shrink). As we are not self sufficient and still have to import a lot of goods so the prices of those goods are going up thus increasing the cost of living, cost of raw material and things like electricity , gas , water , transport. This has created a ripple effect where the relative prices of other goods are also going up due to devaluation thus causing inflation, plus the blunders which they have committed is making it worse for the country sugar mafia + flour mafia. To make it short somebody has to pay for that devaluation and without increasing exports the people of pakistan are paying it in shape of decreased purchasing power. The interesting part is that this has also lead to decrease in revenue for the government in absolute terms and increased government borrowing thus making the situation even more worse.

But the economic experts who came down from mars to this country want to make us believe that the recovery from this situation itself actually is development. Its like you lost five rupees and earned two after that, and you claim that you have fixed the problem and we are developing. We need to make our own economic policy catering specifically to our problems and needs. When one import economic policies and implement it as it is thats what the results are. Its a classic case of economic mismanagement.

 

[American Pakistani]

This happen because I say so out of my personal grudge. This duffer have nothing to bank his claim just his moaning.

 

[CrazyZ]

Macro economic situation has improved but requiring intense belt tightening. The past import led growth model was not sustainable. With no forex, devaluation was the only option.

 

[Nilgiri]

The guy is quoting some numbers that do seem to be off from original document released:

http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//press_releases/2020/cpi_press_release_february_2020.pdf

Still a 32% increase for perishables (given these must be local supply chain based products) is cause for concern, given their exposure to forex based PKR deprection must be more limited (past any fuel and maybe fertilizer reliance) compared to other products....plus the impact they have in regular day to day budget of 99% households.

 

[ziaulislam]

Why is every one surprisded
You devalued 50%
You are reacting to artifically low inflation in 2016-2018(less than 3% when everywhere else it was 6-7%)

That is why bhuttos and jiyalas will never loose..rupee manipulation and artficial low interest rates is always popular..yes it doesnt work but it is popular ..so i will be surprised if IK wins a second term
Its either going to be maryum or baby bilawal that people will bring out

 

[Gorgin Khan]

Why is every one surprisded
You devalued 50%
You are reacting to artifically low inflation in 2016-2018(less than 3% when everywhere else it was 6-7%)

That is why bhuttos and jiyalas will never loose..rupee manipulation and artficial low interest rates is always popular..yes it doesnt work but it is popular ..so i will be surprised if IK wins a second term
Its either going to be maryum or baby bilawal that people will bring out

Even if we go by what you are saying ( which is only half the truth) .We can see that your supposed artificially low inflation actually converts in shape of increased CAD or increased Borrowings which we already discussed.

You cannot take all factors and then multiply the problem itself just like you are trying to do . Stop fooling around with the supposed term of artificially low inflation and then passing it on for years to blame others for incompetency of this government. We already can see the those figures in CAD and borrowings.

The harsh reality is the government did not achieve anything from 40 percent devaluation of currency. In fact all those benefits is being reaped by the elites in the government while common man is suffering.

 

[ziaulislam]

Even if we go by what you are saying ( which is only half the truth) .We can see that your supposed artificially low inflation actually converts in shape of increased CAD or increased Borrowings which we already discussed.

This is what i mean

You cannot take all factors and then multiply the problem itself just like you are trying to make political gains . Stop fooling around with the supposed term of artificially low inflation and then passing it on for years to blame other for incompetency of this government. We already can see the those figures in CAD and borrowings.

I respect your opionion ..i dont have time to lecture everyone..anyone can google these facts ..
Nothing govt can do to avoid this..its fact ..you want to deny it fine..but it wont change the reality ..
Majority of pakistanis are illiterate or in denial..that is a fact..so currency manipulation will always be a problem in 5 years swing voting system and will awalys be employed by govt.
Solution..make state bank free(this is what it is suppose to be on paper)
But state bank isnt free..
So this will happen again in 2022-2023 if PTI decides to manipulate the election and defintively in 2027-28 when maryum (or bilawal) will be in power..

So pakistan will be back to IMF in 2024 if PTI manipulates the currency
And will be back to IMF in 2028 no matter what as we can see there is no way PTI will win the re election..

It will be interesting..may be it will be hamza not maryum..or who knows may be sharif has juice left in him..he is sick though diabetic CAD HTN ...

 

[Gorgin Khan]

This is what i mean

CAD figures for that particular year to be more clear. So kindly tell me what about the CAD from last two years is this government also borrowing and keeping the dollar artificially inflated while simultaneously devaluing currency by 40 percent. Why is the CAD not coming down as it should, if there was inflated borrowing just to keep currency down? You see the problem itself is more complex.

And my comments have nothing to do with any political party i am just stating the facts . Why are you guys making everything political ? So if you try to continue blame game you can do it believe me i dont care !

 

[ziaulislam]

CAD figures for that particular year to be more clear. So kindly tell me what about the CAD from last two years is this government also borrowing and keeping the dollar artificially inflated. Why is the CAD not coming down as it should ?

CAD came down from 2b$/month in april may june to less than 800million. Check www.sbp.org.pk
That is 70% reduction..
Hmmm..do you know what CAD is ???

Infact govt doesnt need to do anything
CAD of 700 million is sustainable
Will lead to incresse in reserves with time
All countris have Gdp 2-3% -tive CAD..no big deal
Its an issue when it goes up beyond 3%

 

[Gorgin Khan]

CAD came down from 2b$/month in april may june to less than 800million. Check www.sbp.org.pk
That is 70% reduction..
Hmmm..do you know what CAD is ???

Infact govt doesnt need to do anything
CAD of 700 million is sustainable
Will lead to incresse in reserves with time
All countris have Gdp 2-3% -tive CAD..no big deal
Its an issue when it goes up beyond 3%

CAD is down due to decreasing imports not increasing exports and its still alarmingly high dont give me monthly figures. Currency is devalued to increase exports , if you use it for decreasing imports its suicide and you are bringing economy to stalemate which exactly where it is ? So again my question is what did the 40 percent devaluation achieved why didn't our export increase? This is exactly many sane economic experts were talking from beginning and i dont need to go through it again and again. And the figures you are stating is your suppositions. I believe there should be no CAD no negative growth the GDP should grow at 20 percent , then what ?

And rather than lecturing people if you try to understand more and we learn from each other without political biases, i guess it will better for our country! Nobody needs to lecture nobody after all.

 

[CrazyZ]

Even if we go by what you are saying ( which is only half the truth) .We can see that your supposed artificially low inflation actually converts in shape of increased CAD or increased Borrowings which we already discussed.

You cannot take all factors and then multiply the problem itself just like you are trying to do . Stop fooling around with the supposed term of artificially low inflation and then passing it on for years to blame others for incompetency of this government. We already can see the those figures in CAD and borrowings.

The harsh reality is the government did not achieve anything from 40 percent devaluation of currency. In fact all those benefits is being reaped by the elites in the government while common man is suffering.

No choice. No Forex. PML-N put then in a bad position before leaving. That's why key economic decisions should be left to experts with long term appointments. The election cycle become less relevant to making good long term decisions.

 

[ziaulislam]

CAD is down due to decreasing imports not increasing exports. Currency is devalued to increase exports , if you use it for decreasing imports its suicide and you are bringing economy to stalemate which exactly where it is ? So again my question is what did the 40 percent devaluation achieved why didn't our export increase? This is exactly many sane economic experts were talking from beginning and i dont need to go through it again and again. And the figures you are stating is your suppositions. I believe there should be no CAD no negative growth the GDP should grow at 20 percent , then what ?

And rather than lecturing people if you try to understand more and we learn from each other without political biases, i guess it will better for our country! Nobody needs to lecture nobody after all.

Do you have magic wond to put an export industry in 36 months
I have NOT seen one that will do it in under 48 months..it takes 2-3 years of planning 2-3 years of construction ..and more importantly 4-5 years of trust..see e.g the oil refinery of gawadar..
Bangladesh and vietnam earned that since 2000
We were at take off in 2005-2007 era (after 7-8 yrs of stability) but than things changed

If you have one that can do it in under 36 months show it to me sovwe can use it..

Fact check..

EXPORTS WENT UP DURING ZARDARI ERA AND WENT DOWN DURING NAWAZ ERA what does that mean..was zardari better than nawaz?

Also are we talking about CAD or exports now?
Nxt you will bring uo infaltion fiscal deficit than you will jump to circualr debt..can we stick to one thing at a time
Here read this..if u r still in denial than there can only be two explalnations
1. You are illiterate (not possible u r on this forum)
2. You are in denial (hence why maryum nawaz will be in power in 2023 & we will be with IMF in 2028 provided the country survive till than)

۔.
Oh if u cant understand much just read "net lending..."

 

[Norwegian]

So again my question is what did the 40 percent devaluation achieved why didn't our export increase?

If you were not on some PMLN donkey drug, you would have known that exports have been increasing all the time since devaluation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234387071650807808

maryum nawaz will be in power in 2023