What's new

Soaring Prices of Imported LNG Threaten Pakistan's Economic Recovery

RiazHaq

SENIOR MEMBER
Joined
Oct 31, 2009
Messages
6,611
Reaction score
70
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States

Soaring LNG prices are adversely affecting Pakistan's balance of payments and threatening the nation's post-COVID economic recovery. Pakistan's trade deficit has widened to nearly $12 billion in July-September 2021 quarter, up more than 100% from the same period last year. The nation's heavy reliance on expensive imported energy has been the main cause of prior balance of payments crises that have forced it to seek IMF bailouts more than a dozen times in the last 70 years.



The average LNG price for November delivery into Northeast Asia was estimated at about $32 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), up nearly 20 percent from the previous week, according to the Peninsula Qatar publication. Price agency S&P Global Platts said on Thursday that its Japan-Korea-Marker, which is widely used as a benchmark for spot LNG contracts, rose to $34.47 per mmBtu.

Rising LNG prices have forced power generating companies in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Middle East to start switching fuels pushing oil prices higher. US crude closed above $80 for the first time since late in 2014, bringing its climb since the end of last October to 125%, according to the Wall Street Journal.


The key to Pakistan managing its current accounts lies in reducing reliance on imported energy and dramatically increasing its exports. Pakistan already faces climate change pressures forcing it to change its energy mix to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

Pakistan's Malik Amin Aslam with CNN's Becky Anderson


Malik Amin Aslam, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's special assistant on climate change, said recently in an interview with CNN that his country is seeking to change its energy mix to favor green. He said Pakistan's 60% renewable energy target would to be based on solar, wind and hydro power projects, and 40% would come from hydrocarbon and nuclear which is also low-carbon. “Nuclear power has to be part of the country’s energy mix for future as a zero energy emission source for clean and green future,” he concluded. Here are the key points Aslam made to Becky Anderson of CNN:
1. Pakistan wants to be a part of the solution even though it accounts for less than 1% of global carbon emissions.
2. Extreme weather events are costing Pakistan significant losses of lives and property. Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

3. Pakistan is moving towards renewable energy by converting 60% of its energy mix to renewable by 2030. Electric vehicle (EV) transition is also beginning in his country.

4. Aslam said: “We are one of the world leaders on nature based solutions. However, the World Bank (WB) in its Report yesterday came up with really good numbers in a comparison done of countries who are shifting their mainstream development towards environment friendly policies and Pakistan came atop among them,” the SAPM explained.

To a question on Pakistan’s capacity to make investments in nature based solutions, he said, “We cannot afford not to do it….that’s a cliche in our country and we are living that cliche in Pakistan. We are not just talking the climate talk rather doing climate action in Pakistan.”

To a question on the 26th Conference of Parties (COP-26) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Amin said his country’s revised "national determined contributions" (NDCs) are going to be released next week. “….that’s going to clearly tell the world that this (money) we had spent in nature and could do further and that was also our direction,” he added. The SAPM informed that Pakistan was going to COP 26 with a very clear message that the country has been affected by climate change, climate injustice, adding, “but we are one of the countries that are leading the way to nature based solutions.”

He cited the WB Report and said 44% of the country’s mainstream development was climate friendly investment and it had doubled in the past one year. He said 60% renewable energy target would to be based on solar, wind and hydro power projects, and 40% would come from hydrocarbons and nuclear which is also low-carbon. “Nuclear power has to be part of the country’s energy mix for future as a zero energy emission source for clean and green future,” he concluded.

Here's a video of Malik Amin Aslam's interview with CNN"s Becky Anderson:






Related Links:
Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan's Debt Crisis
Declining Investment Hurting Pakistan's Economic Growth
Brief History of Pakistan Economy
Can Pakistan Avoid Recurring IMF Bailouts?

Pakistan is the 3rd Fastest Growing Trillion Dollar Economy

CPEC Financing: Is China Ripping Off Pakistan?

Pakistan Ramps Up Nuclear Power Generation

Is Pakistan Ready For Clean Energy Revolution?

"Failed State" Pakistan Saw 22% Growth in Per Capita Income in Last 5 Years

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Pakistan Among Top 3 Countries For New Hydro Installed Capacity

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

 
.
Most of our LNG is imported via long term contracts. Problem is with spot buying which is like a wild draw so it can wither be really good or really bad. Need to convert it to long term for at least 90% of our use. Rest 10% we can buy if required from spot market.
 
.
Most of our LNG is imported via long term contracts. Problem is with spot buying which is like a wild draw so it can wither be really good or really bad. Need to convert it to long term for at least 90% of our use. Rest 10% we can buy if required from spot market.

About 60% of Pakistan's LNG demand is covered by long-term contracts.

 
.
About 60% of Pakistan's LNG demand is covered by long-term contracts.

About 60% of Pakistan's LNG demand is covered by long-term contracts.


Thanks for that info. Also this year Pakistan can import additional cargos from Qatar in winter at 10.2 of brent. It was part of deal that was signed earlier this year. Maybe this is the reason they didnt go to spot mRket.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.thenews.com.pk/amp/796105-cheaper-lng-deal-inked-with-qatar
 
.
Power plants built under #CPEC will add 55 million tons of CO2 to #Pakistan's #carbon emissions of 225 million tons, tiny compared to #India's 2.6 billion tons & #China's 10 billion tons. Pak is offsetting its emissions by planting trees.



Pakistani%2BPower%2BPlants%2BUnder%2BCPEC.png
 
. .
#Remittances of $8 billion from #Pakistani diaspora in July-Sept 2022 quarter will pay for two-thirds of the $12 billion #trade deficit. #Pakistan government still needs to borrow over $4 billion to pay for the rest.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1650949

Overseas Pakistanis sent the highest-ever $8 billion remittances during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, registering a growth of 12.5 per cent over the same period last year.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday reported that with inflows of $2.7bn in September, workers’ remittances continued their strong momentum and remaining above $2bn since June 2020.

“This is the 7th consecutive month when inflows recorded around $2.7bn on average,” said the SBP. In terms of growth, remittances increased by 17pc in September compared to the same month last year, while comparing with August inflows it was 0.5pc higher.

The surging imports in 1QFY22 widened the trade deficit putting immense pressure on the rupee-dollar exchange rate which ultimately reflected in higher current account deficit. The situation for the economic managers is not comfortable except the higher remittance supported the economy beyond imagination.


The country had received record remittances of $29.4bn in FY21 which helped it curtail the current account deficit.

“The proactive policy measures by the government and SBP to incentivise the use of formal channels, curtailed crossborder travel in the face of Covid19, altruistic transfers to Pakistan amid the pandemic, and orderly foreign exchange market conditions have positively contributed towards the sustained improvement in remittance inflows since last year,” the central bank said in statement.

However, the deterioration of exchange rate has created serious problems for the external trade activities. Recently, the SBP has taken several measures to curtail outflow of dollars and reduce the import bill, but the exchange rate is still against the rupee which has lost about 11.5pc during the last five months.

The highest remittances were received from Saudi Arabia but they were 2.6pc less than the same period of last year. During July-September 2021-22 the remittances from Saudi Arabia were $2.025bn against $2.080bn last year. The contribution of Saudi Arabia in the total remittances during the first quarter of FY22 was almost 25pc. In September, Pakistan received $691m from the kingdom against $694m in the same month of last year.

The remittance from the United Arab Emirates was second highest as it witnessed a growth of 8.7pc while it amounted to $1.545bn during the first quarter of FY22.

The inflows from UK and USA noted a growth of 13.2pc and 32pc amounting to $1.115bn and $836m respectively. The growth in the first quarter of FY21 was 71.5pc for UK and 63pc for USA.

For the first time, the inflows from EU countries surpassed the total inflows from other GCC countries. The inflows from EU countries rose $889m compared to $880.7 from the GCC countries. The remittances from EU countries increased by 47.8pc compared to the same period of last fiscal year.
 
.

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom