Should we rely on nuclear power?
1. Nuclear power is clearly a dead-end technology. It is not sustainable since there is only a 50-year supply of uranium left in the world.
2. Nuclear power plants are not cheap. They incur high capital costs. The industry is surviving thanks to heavy hidden subsidies in reprocessing and deferred costs of decommissioning.
3. Nuclear energy is highly glorified. It is neither cheap nor clean, and definitely not safe. Its concerns are environmental, ethical, social and political.
4. It is leaving behind a legacy of contamination. The accidents so far have been serious. The radioactive waste, including spent fuel, till date contains some 100 billion curies of radiation, which is 1,000 times more radioactivity than was blown out of Chernobyl.
5. The reactor blast at Chernobyl and the Three Mile Island meltdown continue to claim lives. No accurate assessment of their overall impact has been conclusively made.
6. Nuclear power plants age dangerously. Equipment breakdowns, pipe cracks, clogging and generator bursting have caused more than 50 fires or other safety hazards in the US alone.
7. The last 35 years have witnessed a popular movement against nuclear power based on the fear of possible accidents. Till date some 110 reactors have shut down.
8. Phase out of nuclear operations has led to development of alternatives. Renewable clean source of energy such as windmills, solar panels, biomass and hydropower are becoming more popular. 9 Countries like Germany, Spain and Belgium have phased out their nuclear programmes.
For:
1. Huge amounts of energy are produced from small amounts of uranium. There is also a gradual shift to thorium-based reactors.
2. Low fuel costs and ease of transport more than compensate for these high costs. The overall cost of nuclear generation of electricity is 50% to 80% that of other fuel sources.
3. It is but another victim of threat perception and false propaganda generated by ill-informed environmentalists and activists.
4. It is relatively clean and climate friendly, compared to a coal-fired power station that produces 1,000,000 tonnes of CO2, causing global warming. Even the waste it generates is compact, and considered a ‘strategic fuel reserve’ for future.
5. For every unit of electricity, hydropower causes 110 fold, coal 45 fold and natural gas 10 fold more deaths than nuclear power. It has a better safety record than fossil fuels.
6. All power plants age as they have a finite life and need to be decommissioned within time. Power plants always have inherent risks, which can be muted with vigilant management.
7. Nuclear plants are safely and profitably operating in 31 countries around the world. 24 new nuclear reactors are under construction in 11 countries.
8. Installing solar cells to replace a $2.56bn nuclear power plant would cost $92bn, which is 36 times more expensive, and the cells would cover 150 sq km area. Alternatives will prove to be expansive.
9. Countries like India, China and Russia are expanding their nuclear programmes.
Should we rely on nuclear power?-Quickies -Features-The Economic Times
Towards Self-Sufficiency in Power
NTPC
Suresh P. Prabhu
Union Minister of Power
Electricity is the prime mover of growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. The projected growth of the Indian economy depends heavily on the performance and growth of the power sector. It is the endeavour of the Government to ensure that agriculture, industry, commercial establishments and all households receive uninterrupted supply of electricity at affordable rates. It is a matter of pride that the power sector has made steady progress. The installed capacity in the country has gone up from 1,713 MW in 1950 to more than 104,000 MW today. The Ministry of Power envisages providing reliable, affordable and quality power supply to all users by 2012.
The Government has set before itself a target of creating 100,000 MW of additional capacity by the year 2012 and I have made it a personal mission to see that this target is achieved. Out of the additional capacity of 100,000 MW to be set up by 2012, about 41,000 MW would be set up in the Tenth Plan. In addition, a capacity of about 4,200 MW is likely to be available from renewables. The Central Sector would contribute 22,500 MW, the State Sector 11,400 MW and the Private Sector 7,100 MW. Of the 41,000 MW capacity so targeted, projects around 18,500 MW are already under construction. Moreover, about 8,700 MW of aggregate capacity already has the requisite approvals.
I realise that the requirement of resources for the capacity addition programme of this magnitude is huge. For this, all efforts have been made and the outlay for the Central Power Sector has been raised from Rs.45,591 crore during the Ninth Plan to Rs.143,399 crore in theTenth Plan, an increase of about more than 200 per cent. To ensure adequate funding of our hydro projects in the Central Sector, the Gross Budgetary Support for the Central Sector for the Tenth Plan has been finalised at Rs. 25,000 crore which is 67 per cent more than the corresponding Ninth Plan figure.
At my specific instruction to give top priority to capacity addition, the Central Electricity Authority and also the senior officers of the Ministry have held detailed discussions with each of the States and its utilities before deciding on the projects to be commissioned in the Tenth Plan. This "bottoms-up" approach will be more successful as the States have given their commitment for successful completion of the projects that have been finalised in consultation with them. The Government has also put in place an intensive monitoring process to review all identified projects quarterly. The State Sector projects, region-wise, are being reviewed separately by the Central Electricity Authority. To ensure early clearance to project proposals, a mechanism for effective co-ordination with the Ministry of Coal and the Ministry of Environment and Forest has been put in place by me.
The thrust given on reforms is also expected to give positive results within the next two to three years which would lead to rationalisation of tariff, lowering of T & D losses, etc. This would encourage the private sector to bring in further investments for capacity addition. There is full political commitment to reforms as is evident by the resolution adopted in the last Chief Ministers/Power Ministers Conference held in March, 2001. This has been further strengthened by the MoUs which have been signed by the Ministry of Power with 21 States.
With all these initiatives taken by the Ministry and with the understanding and support of the people, I am confident that we will be able to achieve the capacity addition target set for the 10th Plan.
Despite this impressive growth in capacity addition, the per capita consumption in India is one of the lowest and is estimated at about 350 units. The Indian per capita consumption for electricity is about one-fourth of the world’s average and the corresponding figures for countries such as China, U. S. A. and U. K. are 750 units, 12,000 units and 5,000 units, respectively. Along with the low level of per capita consumption, the fact that India continues to have peaking shortage of approximately 13 per cent and energy shortage of about 7 per cent is a matter of concern.
India has large deposits of coal, estimated at 70 billion tonnes. It also has an enormous hydro potential, estimated at approximately 84,000 MW at 60 per cent load factor. India has utilised only about 16 per cent of its hydro potential till date and another 7 per cent is under construction. Given the fact that coal is available within the country in abundance,
it is natural that 71 per cent of our power generation is through thermal sources. The corresponding ratios for hydro, nuclear and wind are 25 per cent, 2.7 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.
The growth of installed capacity in India over the successive Plan periods has been as follows:
The capacity addition, by and large, has always lagged behind the targets which had been set before the onset of the Plan period. The only exception being the Seventh Plan where we had achieved 96 per cent of the target. The targets as well as achievements during the Fifth Plan onwards have been as follows:
Targets for the Ninth Plan
Central Sector Private Sector State Sector Total Achievements during the Ninth Plan
Central Sector Private Sector State Sector Total
The Government of India had taken a major policy decision in 1991 to throw open the power sector for private sector investments and for this purpose, the existing electricity laws were amended. This step was taken because it was increasingly realised that, given the quantum of demand for power, it would be impossible for the public sector to raise the required resources on its own. A number of policy measures have been taken thereafter by the Government in order to make the sector more investor-friendly.
Some of the major initiatives are indicated as under:
• 100 per cent FDI permitted on automatic approval route without any upper ceiling.
• Raising limit for requirement of TEC by CEA.
• Power to approve schemes decentralised.
• Competitive bidding made mandatory
• Crisis Resolution Group set up for resolving ‘last mile’ problems.
• Relaxation of 40 per cent cap for debt exposure to financial institutions, etc.
In addition to the above, the Government, in its effort to boost setting up of additional capacity, formulated the Hydro Policy and also the revised Mega Policy in 1998. Other changes were also made with respect to procedures for clearance of hydro projects wherein the three-stage clearance mechanism was put in place in June 2001. This has lowered the gestation time for hydro projects.
The response to the policies of the Government for inviting private capital has been good but not to the extent that was desired or expected. Consequently, since 1992-93, about 6,800 MW of private power has been commissioned, another about 5,000 MW approximately is under execution. One of the primary reasons for non-participation of the private sector has been the poor financial health of the State Electricity Boards. None of the State utilities today are earning a positive rate of return and the overdues of the SEBs/Utilities have crossed Rs. 41,000 crore. The thrust of the Government, at present, is therefore on reforms wherein the primary objective is to improve the financial health of the State Electricity Boards so that they are in a position to pay for the power they purchase from the generating stations. In its drive towards reforms, the Government has created the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission in 1998 which has been followed by the setting up of 21 other State Electricity Regulatory Commissions in various States. It is expected that with the setting up of these commissions, tariffs would be rationalised in the long run which would have a salutary effect on the financial viability of the State Electricity Boards.
The Government is separately tackling the problem of reforms through improvements in the distribution sector which holds the key for a successful reforms movement. The implementation of the Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme through which 63 circles have been identified to be developed as ‘centres of excellence’ is a major step in this direction. Since power is a concurrent subject, the Government engages the States in regular discussions and the last such interaction took place during the Chief Ministers’/ Power Ministers’ conference which was organised in March, 2001. During this Conference, it was resolved that power sector reforms would be depoliticised and carried on with more vigour. In its effort to act as a facilitator and catalyst for the power sector reforms, the Ministry of Power has signed 19 Memoranda of Understanding with as many States wherein a time-bound path for reforms has been laid down and in lieu of this, the Central Government would extend assistance to the States by way of enhanced share from Central generating stations, financial assistance under the APDRP scheme, etc. These MoUs are being regularly monitored so that the targets laid down are adhered to by the States. Another major initiative was the one-time settlement of the dues of the SEBs which was recently approved by the Cabinet. This would enable the SEBs to start their functioning on a clean slate. The Government now proposes to make reforms mandatory in the States for which the Electricity Bill, 2001 has been introduced in Parliament. The Bill at present is being scrutinised by the Standing Committee.
While it is clear that we are progressing well on the reforms path, it is no doubt a long drawn process and the benefits are likely to be visible after three to four years. All the same, the trend which has been seen is encouraging and from the tariff orders which have been issued by 12 State Electricity Regulatory Commissions, one can see a positive move towards rationalisation of tariffs. In order to maintain the tempo of investments in the power sector, it is felt that the public sector, both in the Centre and in the States, should take a lead in setting up of power projects since the private sector would be able to make investments only after the reforms programme shows tangible results.
India is a growing economy and the yearly growth rate which has been worked out for the Tenth Plan is about 8-9 per cent per annum. To maintain this rate of growth, the power sector has to grow in the order of at least 10 per cent per annum since otherwise, there will be a supply side bottleneck.
The 16th Electric Power Survey has estimated that the energy requirement by the year 2012 would be 975 billion units with a corresponding peak demand of 157,000 MW. In terms of additional capacity which needs to be created by 2012, this works out to more than 100,000 MW during the next two Plan periods to cater to the requirement of installed capacity required by the end of the Eleventh Plan period of 212,000 MW (matches to peak load of 157,000 MW). This, no doubt, is a Herculean task given the resources which have to be invested for setting up of this additional capacity. It has been estimated that the investment required inclusive of the costs for execution of transmission and distribution lines may well reach US $ 200 billion.
For the Tenth Plan, the target of 41,100 MW for new capacity addition has been kept. The break-up between Central, State and Private Sector projects and also between thermal hydro, etc. are as under:
In addition, MNES is to contribute 3,100 MW while 1,020 MW share from Tala Project, Bhutan, is also likely during the Plan period. One major shift which has been adopted for the Tenth Plan is that before finalising the list of projects, detailed discussions have been held with each of the States/Utilities. Their views have been assessed and the projects have been identified with their concurrence. This 'bottoms-up' approach is expected to be more fruitful since the States have given commitment on the implementation of the projects which have been identified. In order to ensure that the tempo of State sector investments in the power sector are maintained, the Minister of Power has addressed individual letters to the Chief Ministers requesting them to enhance the power sector outlay in the State Plans. The performance in respect of capacity addition is expected to be better than what has been achieved in the past since there are Central Sector projects aggregating to almost 11,000 MW which are under execution. Further, another 3,160 MW of Central sector projects are nearing the award for main plant order. In addition to the above, Central sector projects with a cumulative capacity of 8,047 MW are under various stages of approval. In the State sector also, to cut down the gestation time for projects, some projects have been taken up under the negotiated route with BHEL. They are Panipat unit of Haryana, Raichur and Bellary of Karnataka and Suratgarh of Rajasthan.
As mentioned earlier, the performance of the reforms programme in the power sector will play a crucial role in determining the success of the capacity addition programme. In a nutshell, what can be said is that though the initial trend for the reforms programme is encouraging, it would take another three to four years for the benefits to be visible.
NTPC
