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President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom has denied the entire atoll will be sold to the Saudis, but said plans for a “mega project” worth US$10 billion – three times his country’s GDP – would be disclosed “once the negotiation process was completed”.
At a briefing for international journalists in Malé, housing minister Mohamed Muizzu said he hoped it would be a big investment: “We don’t want to move slowly; we want transformational change. That is the whole mentality of this government. We want to bring better living conditions to this country on a large scale, in a small period of time.”
Foreign land ownership was illegal in the Maldives until 2015, when the Yameen government passed an amendment to the constitution.
Dr Theodore Karasik, senior advisor to Gulf States Analytics in Washington DC said the motivation for the Saudis was unlikely to be militaristic.
“Saudis are not going to set up bases anywhere else. Saudi uses allies and proxies to try to achieve strategic and tactical goals… [Their intention is] to build up a network of allies that form a logistical chain from the Gulf to east Asia and back,” he said.
US imports of Saudi oil have steadily declined since a 2003 peak, falling 40%. Growing demand in China offers a new opportunity for the kingdom. But it is not without competition. In 2016, Saudi Arabia was overtaken by Russia as China’s largest source of oil.
Last year, the kingdom unveiled an economic restructuring plan called “Vision 2030” that points towards deeper economic ties with east Asia. Karasik says the Indian Ocean supply chain is “absolutely critical” to the success of the plan.
King Salman is on a tour of the countries along that supply chain, striking deals and announcing investments in Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan, China and finally the Maldives.
“Saudi partnership with other countries will be required to ensure that freedom of navigation remains and that piracy and terrorism doesn’t occur,” said Karasik.
Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz (Photo: Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo)
The employment of the Maldives as a strategic anchor for future oil trade rubs against the country’s vulnerability to climate change. It is the lowest-lying country on earth, with a high point of just 2.4m, meaning even small rises in sea level could be devastating. (Nasheed rose to international prominence for his advocacy on the issue as president.)
According to the International Energy Agency, oil demand in China must peak within a decade for the 2C temperature goal of the Paris climate agreement to be met – even more radical cuts will be required for survival of communities in the Maldives according to the government’s own statements.
Though the physics of climate change are inexorable, geopolitical forces are also overwhelming these islands. In August 2015, Salman and Chinese premier Xi Jinping signed a cooperative agreement on China’s One Belt, One Road initiative – the cumulative term for the New Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road that China has outlined as its key strategic supply lanes (see figure below).
This has coincided with a widening of Chinese interests in the Maldives. The Chinese premier, Xi Jinping visited the islands in 2014, announcing the construction of a US$210 million “Friendship Bridge” connecting Malé to its airport island. China is also financing an extra runway at the airport and intends to develop a port on Laamu atoll, which lies south of Faafu. The Maldives, once tied to India for its economic survival now owes 70% of its external debt to China.
Chinese-owned or financed port locations (existing and proposed) along the Maritime Silk Road. Maldives marked with red rectangle. (Source: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security)
Cleo Paskal, associate fellow at Chatham House and author of Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map, said the Saudi purchase of Faafu could lay the foundation for China to extend its military reach in the Indian Ocean, securing Saudi and Chinese interests.
“China is on record as wanting a base in the Maldives,” she said. “It was a big issue in 2015. It already has or is working on ‘commercial’ ports in several countries along the route from the Indian Ocean to China and recently opened an overtly military naval base in Djibouti. Saudis are unlikely to build anything like that for themselves, but may facilitate the construction of some sort of ‘resupply’ installation built by China that would likely have dual use capacity.”
She said this would raise concerns in Delhi, which has courted its neighbours. It would also place the Chinese military very close to the US base at Diego Garcia. The US state department did not respond to requests for comment.
Ankit Panda, senior editor of The Diplomat, cautioned against ascribing long term strategic motivations to the Faafu deal – should it eventuate. He said the purchase was clearly part of the Saudi programme to diversify its economy from oil, but that the Maldives may be playing a longer game.
“The geopolitical layer to this, in my view, is more on the Maldivian side for now. The Saudis are looking primarily for a strategic investment opportunity,” said Panda. “The [Maldives’] leadership understands its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and sees a Saudi outpost there potentially paying dividends in the future.”
It was also likely, said Karasik, that the Saudi visit would be accompanied by the announcement of an investment in the country’s newly-created national oil company, MNOC. A UK company, Zebra Data Sciences, has been linked to further exploration after the government announced that initial prospecting had found deposits of oil and gas in the atolls.
Energy and environment minister Thoriq Ibrahim told Climate Home: “What the country needs now is to use the resources we have. We don’t know yet [whether there are viable oil reserves]. There was a research team here.”
All of this investment, said former president Nasheed, was happening without transparency. This was particularly problematic given the Yameen government’s history of corruption. Last year, an Al Jazeera documentary revealed a land deals racket that saw cash from foreign buyers going missing – some of it ending up in Yameen’s personal bank account.
“One of the issues with these kind of hidden deals is that it encourages corruption and through corruption you can subvert states… This is fairly unclear territory we are going into,” said Nasheed.
One of the atolls, Faafu – a collection of 19 low-lying islands 120 kilometres south of the capital Malé and home to 4,000 people.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/05/saudis-make-maldives-land-grab-secure-oil-routes-china/
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/05/saudis-make-maldives-land-grab-secure-oil-routes-china/
At a briefing for international journalists in Malé, housing minister Mohamed Muizzu said he hoped it would be a big investment: “We don’t want to move slowly; we want transformational change. That is the whole mentality of this government. We want to bring better living conditions to this country on a large scale, in a small period of time.”
Foreign land ownership was illegal in the Maldives until 2015, when the Yameen government passed an amendment to the constitution.
Dr Theodore Karasik, senior advisor to Gulf States Analytics in Washington DC said the motivation for the Saudis was unlikely to be militaristic.
“Saudis are not going to set up bases anywhere else. Saudi uses allies and proxies to try to achieve strategic and tactical goals… [Their intention is] to build up a network of allies that form a logistical chain from the Gulf to east Asia and back,” he said.
US imports of Saudi oil have steadily declined since a 2003 peak, falling 40%. Growing demand in China offers a new opportunity for the kingdom. But it is not without competition. In 2016, Saudi Arabia was overtaken by Russia as China’s largest source of oil.
Last year, the kingdom unveiled an economic restructuring plan called “Vision 2030” that points towards deeper economic ties with east Asia. Karasik says the Indian Ocean supply chain is “absolutely critical” to the success of the plan.
King Salman is on a tour of the countries along that supply chain, striking deals and announcing investments in Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan, China and finally the Maldives.
“Saudi partnership with other countries will be required to ensure that freedom of navigation remains and that piracy and terrorism doesn’t occur,” said Karasik.
Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz (Photo: Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo)
The employment of the Maldives as a strategic anchor for future oil trade rubs against the country’s vulnerability to climate change. It is the lowest-lying country on earth, with a high point of just 2.4m, meaning even small rises in sea level could be devastating. (Nasheed rose to international prominence for his advocacy on the issue as president.)
According to the International Energy Agency, oil demand in China must peak within a decade for the 2C temperature goal of the Paris climate agreement to be met – even more radical cuts will be required for survival of communities in the Maldives according to the government’s own statements.
Though the physics of climate change are inexorable, geopolitical forces are also overwhelming these islands. In August 2015, Salman and Chinese premier Xi Jinping signed a cooperative agreement on China’s One Belt, One Road initiative – the cumulative term for the New Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road that China has outlined as its key strategic supply lanes (see figure below).
This has coincided with a widening of Chinese interests in the Maldives. The Chinese premier, Xi Jinping visited the islands in 2014, announcing the construction of a US$210 million “Friendship Bridge” connecting Malé to its airport island. China is also financing an extra runway at the airport and intends to develop a port on Laamu atoll, which lies south of Faafu. The Maldives, once tied to India for its economic survival now owes 70% of its external debt to China.
Chinese-owned or financed port locations (existing and proposed) along the Maritime Silk Road. Maldives marked with red rectangle. (Source: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security)
Cleo Paskal, associate fellow at Chatham House and author of Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map, said the Saudi purchase of Faafu could lay the foundation for China to extend its military reach in the Indian Ocean, securing Saudi and Chinese interests.
“China is on record as wanting a base in the Maldives,” she said. “It was a big issue in 2015. It already has or is working on ‘commercial’ ports in several countries along the route from the Indian Ocean to China and recently opened an overtly military naval base in Djibouti. Saudis are unlikely to build anything like that for themselves, but may facilitate the construction of some sort of ‘resupply’ installation built by China that would likely have dual use capacity.”
She said this would raise concerns in Delhi, which has courted its neighbours. It would also place the Chinese military very close to the US base at Diego Garcia. The US state department did not respond to requests for comment.
Ankit Panda, senior editor of The Diplomat, cautioned against ascribing long term strategic motivations to the Faafu deal – should it eventuate. He said the purchase was clearly part of the Saudi programme to diversify its economy from oil, but that the Maldives may be playing a longer game.
“The geopolitical layer to this, in my view, is more on the Maldivian side for now. The Saudis are looking primarily for a strategic investment opportunity,” said Panda. “The [Maldives’] leadership understands its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and sees a Saudi outpost there potentially paying dividends in the future.”
It was also likely, said Karasik, that the Saudi visit would be accompanied by the announcement of an investment in the country’s newly-created national oil company, MNOC. A UK company, Zebra Data Sciences, has been linked to further exploration after the government announced that initial prospecting had found deposits of oil and gas in the atolls.
Energy and environment minister Thoriq Ibrahim told Climate Home: “What the country needs now is to use the resources we have. We don’t know yet [whether there are viable oil reserves]. There was a research team here.”
All of this investment, said former president Nasheed, was happening without transparency. This was particularly problematic given the Yameen government’s history of corruption. Last year, an Al Jazeera documentary revealed a land deals racket that saw cash from foreign buyers going missing – some of it ending up in Yameen’s personal bank account.
“One of the issues with these kind of hidden deals is that it encourages corruption and through corruption you can subvert states… This is fairly unclear territory we are going into,” said Nasheed.
One of the atolls, Faafu – a collection of 19 low-lying islands 120 kilometres south of the capital Malé and home to 4,000 people.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/05/saudis-make-maldives-land-grab-secure-oil-routes-china/
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/05/saudis-make-maldives-land-grab-secure-oil-routes-china/
