The winner and loser in the crisis in Qatar
15 August 2017
Assessing the situation vis-à-vis the four governments: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain, against Qatar, does not require the use of political and media experts to know the results; it is not a complex military or political battle. The first conclusion is that the crisis may go on for long, we are already at the third month since the four countries declared that they no longer tolerate Qatar's hostile policy against them and that they are serious about continuing the option of severing the relationship.
After about nine weeks, did the Quartet retreat from its decisions?
No, nor Qatar has backed off. Diplomatic relations remain broken and embassies are empty. The land borders with Saudi Arabia are closed, and the airspace is also banned, as are the territorial waters of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Likewise the movement of citizens is stalled.
Most of the pressure falls on the Qatari government, which is affected by the decisions, and in contrast has no means to punish any of the four countries. The cost of sanctions is high on Doha, and we see it running in every direction and tries to compensate for the absence of relations with the four countries in its economic, service, social and other aspects of life. It seems to be surprised by this move against it. However, the size of Qatar's economy remains small, enabling the government to remedy and compensate for the shortage and try to establish local and external alternatives at a high cost.
Qatar is able to continue to finance its position; but at a high price, as long as it has surplus money, relying on gas and oil revenues at current rates, its status remains unordinary and its price will eat much of Qatar's savings at the expense of funding its other political and military activities in the region. Their bill is huge. There are still unforeseeable losses as a result of the downgrade of its credit rating in the banking sector and the impact of the crisis on the costs of its giant project construction, the World Cup in 2022. The shortage of foreign labor for advanced crafts due to concerns echoed around the world, and for the first time, it is now classified as among the most troubled countries in the region.
What makes the management of the crisis costly and unsuccessful, is that the Government of Qatar, is dealing with it with challenge and superiority, as if it was the stronger and larger country. It has engaged the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), insisting to force the four countries to open their airspace, (ICAO) reiterated in its meetings with Qatar that it is not responsible for political differences and can not force anyone to open its skies except in emergency situations only. The same was said to Qatar by the rest of the international organizations. So, Qatar, for example, is moving its Qatar Airways passengers at a loss and at a higher cost than before, just to prove that it can can withstand.
Also, Qatar has done a great deal, including signing huge military deals to lobby international governments to pressure the four countries to restore ties. Indeed, the big powers - America, Germany, France, Britain and Italy - have tried to mediate with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo and Manama to lift the sanctions on Qatar and failed.
From this relaxed position, the four countries watch the Qatari government in a state of preoccupation and turmoil, using all its political, media and financial weapons, yet it has not succeeded in moving the four countries back one meter.
The cutting of ties has besieged and weakened Qatar in other issues. It has become weak in Syria, Libya and Iraq, countries it considered part of its main activity, it has also become weaker than ever before in its dealings with other countries, keen to win the support of the world's nations or their neutrality, with the costs and risks it brings, like we see it accelerating the pace of reconciliation with Iran.
Qatar's strategy in battle is to force the four countries to retreat rather than for it to comply, and in the end it will yield to most of the demands regardless of what it says and try to do. It refuses to negotiate under the stated demands and principles, and wants free negotiations. The four countries are not forced to negotiate. The current situation is quite comfortable, especially as it is the opposite of the game against Qatar. The country was the source of problems and crises for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE. Now Qatar is the one that lives in crises because of these countries. Therefore, after pushing all it had to convince all the powers, and exhausted its media ammunitions and incitements, and no one got out of in its ranks against his government, Qatar will eventually negotiate within the framework of the six principles, and may retreat from the rest of its formal expectations, such as holding negotiations on neutral territory. All this could have been done in the first week of the crisis, and it would have saved itself from a lot of trouble and embarrassment.
alrashed@asharqalawsat.com