Saudi in serious trouble and it knows it: US political scientist

[Falcon29]

Iran never wanted Iraq to be lead by " a Shia government" for more power and blah blah. You obviousely have no idea what are you talking about. Post-Revolution Iran was calling for uprising against injust governments, whether it is aparthaid regime in South Africa or any Muslim nation.

Iran was urging for a Shia revolution in Iraq. Saddam went to war over that. You know something is wrong when you drag religion into 'revolution'. Even more when it's exclusive to one sect. The more religious angle is attributed the more counterproductive will it be. Saudi Arabia and Iran have national interests, sure they really do hate each other. But, they don't actually believe anything they do is an 'Islamic revolution' or 'uprising against oppression'. As far as they're concerned, that's just to rile people up, their personal concerns are related to national matters. This is why we will never see direct war by Iran on Saudi Arabia. It will try to hurt Saudi Arabia through proxies. If the war becomes direct than suddenly people will regret that their precious lives are in danger and will back off quickly. No modern day Iranian is vying for a war with Saudi Arabia. They may cheer for proxies but not direct involvement. That's like saying Iranians enjoyed the Iraq-Iran war. They don't want that misery to commence again.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

You have no idea what are you talking about either. For your information, the Arabs that you are talking about faught alongside Iranians, against saddam. Saddam was thinking like you, though, that the Iranian Arabs are opressed and blah blah and going to embrace Iraqi army.

I wonder how Israel beated so many Arab nation then, the ratio was even much higher

Yes, I do. The only Arab nation who wasted any time talking about the plight of the 2 million or so Arabs in Iran was Saddam's Iraq. Why? Because most of the Arabs in Iran are closely related to the Arabs of Southern Iraq. The same Iraq also thought that Ahwaz was part of Iraq which is not such a strange though as Ahwaz is part of Mesopotamia. The historical region that is.
Also because Iraq was the Ba'athi champion of that time and pretended to lead the Arabs which they in reality where nowhere close to doing of course. Evident of how a neighboring fellow Arab Ba'athi Syria, choose to support Iran instead.

For your information, Saddam Hussein was no leader of any Arabs nor spokesmen of any Arabs other than those he ruled with an iron fist much like how the Iranian regime is ruling their people.

Of course Iranian Arabs were fighting Saddam Hussein as his army was attacking them and their towns and cities.

You don't understand that almost every Arab country and by far the vast majority of Arabs let alone Sunni Muslims will support KSA in a direct conflict with Iran especially if Madinah and Makkah will be part of the war.

Nor what I meant, which is that the Iranian regime, once a regime that quite a few Arabs even supported, is now arguably more hated than any other regime among Arabs which is quite an achievement for a supposed "Islamic" regime. While I wrote that I also wrote that the plight of the Arabs in Iran is getting more exposure in the Arab world thanks to KSA media and other GCC states taking up that topic due to their rivalry with Iran. Before, as I wrote, only Saddam cared. All this helps create more anti-Iranian sentiments in the Arab world.

 

[Falcon29]

@Takaavar

What are Iranian people saying about the current situation? Do they expect a flare up or just business as usual?

 

[Takaavar]

Of course it is as those two countries are the main root of the current instabilities if we exclude the Palestinian and Israeli conflict. Who else is trying to use religion to gain influence, who else is supporting numerous terrorist proxies, who else is trying to topple regimes in foreign countries, who else is meddling in the affairs of sovereign nations etc.?

I don't know. Maybe you should try if that means more peace and stability in the region?

You are both guilty of the same things that you accuse each other of. You both have religious radicals and even more blind regime worshippers although you have equally as many sane people, thank God.
Yes, you do that. It's well-known and I have read neutral reports about this issue many times. You (Iran) execute many more people each year and many more political opponents, religious minorities and ethnic minorities. Each month I read about Iranian Arabs being executed for absurd reason while their families claim that they were not doing anything else but protecting their rights. Not only among Arabs but I read the same about Kurds and hear the same from Kurds.

Few of such reports might be false but when you hear it for the 300th time you realize that there is a real problem. It's not like both countries are known for their respect for minorities.

KSA and Bahrain are allies. Neighbors, fellow Arab and GCC states. The Bahraini King asked KSA and other GCC forces to intervene and they did that. If I recall the GCC are bound by a common defense pact that says that the states are obligated to protect each other. Also hardly any Shia protestors have died in Bahrain. I have not seen any Saudi Arabian soldier killing Bahraini Shias. Maybe you could enlighten us here and me as I have never heard about such a thing?
What about your destructive role in Syria? Or your meddling in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain etc.?
And no, before you mention Yemen, I don't agree with the actions from any party there. The Houthi's should not have tried to hijack all of Yemen by force not should KSA and the coalition have done what they have done. They should have tried to find another solution although I understand KSA's concern for their national safety as Houthi's have attacked them before and are openly hostile to them. So for me their actions at least makes more sense than your support for Al-Assad in Syria which is a insane regime. The realities on the ground say it all, ISIS or not. The same ISIS only emerged due to the actions of the Al-Assad regime. Similarly how ISIS emerged in Iraq among the Sunni Arabs there. Every action has a reaction.

It does not seem to have been widely condemned. Your Supreme Leader was already threatening (empty threads as usual from both sides) KSA before the embassy was burned down.

All in all, the conclusion remains the same. Both countries should grow up and the citizens in each country should stop supporting their two regimes blindly and admit when they commit mistakes. Those regimes will eventually put both countries in great trouble. It's the faith of every regime. One day they all disappear. Before that happens you better pray that this will happen peacefully and that not too many people will want to take part in their downfall whether inside or outside KSA and Iran.

Anyway I don't have more to say about this topic. I have been following regional events for years and those are my conclusions as things stand currently.

In short words: regarding minorities, I really don't know what are you talking about. I check Iran news from internationall outlets not less that you. Maybe you read new about Iran from WahhabiPress or whatever. It is ridiculuse that you say Saudi is ally of Bahrain and support the govt to crush 100% PEACEFULL protests, yet in the SAME PARAGRAPH you call Iran support for its Syrian ally "destructive role". The "destructive role" is supporting extremist and foreign factions by Saudi and Qatar and Turkey. Iran meddles in Lebanon? Gimme a break. Iran has influence in Lebanon. Iran also has influence and IRaq, and Iraqis are not angry about yet you are whining here. Iran never "meddled" in Temen either, Houthies may have receve aids from Iran but they do not operate on behalf of IRan, and it is Saudis who meddled by bombing it on a daily basis if you check your news more exactly.

 

[Abd-ar-Rahman III]

In short words: regarding minorities, I really don't know what are you talking about. I check Iran news from internationall outlets not less that you. Maybe you read new about Iran from WahhabiPress or whatever. It is ridiculuse that you say Saudi is ally of Bahrain and support the govt to crush 100% PEACEFULL protests, yet in the SAME PARAGRAPH you call Iran support for its Syrian ally "destructive role". The "destructive role" is supporting extremist and foreign factions by Saudi and Qatar and Turkey. Iran meddles in Lebanon? Gimme a break. Iran has influence in Lebanon. Iran also has influence and IRaq, and Iraqis are not angry about yet you are whining here. Iran never "meddled" in Temen either, Houthies may have receve aids from Iran but they do not operate on behalf of IRan, and it is Saudis who meddled by bombing it on a daily basis if you check your news more exactly.

Shall I quote objective international sources such as Human Rights, Amnesty International or would you deem them as false too?

You are comparing apples and oranges here. In Bahrain less than 100 protestors have died. In Syria the Al-Assad regime has contributed greatly to 300.000 casualties. In Bahrain actual reforms are talking place and dialogue with the opposition is ongoing. You might not know this as the Iranian media for obvious reasons is not focusing on this as it does not suit their agenda.

Yes, Iran's role in Lebanon is destructive as you are supporting radical elements there. Best exemplified with Hezbollah and other groups who are clearly dividing Lebanon and who are at odds with the Sunnis of Lebanon. I still remember the assassination of Hariri in 2005 which Hezbollah and Iran were behind and what this has meant for Lebanon afterwards and how many Lebanese people this has killed.

Kurds in Iraq are not happy about your meddling in Iraq. Nor the Sunni Arabs of Iraq. Nor far from every Iraqi Shia Arab. In fact many Shia clerics are against your influence. You can easily find Youtube clips translated to English about this topic. Fact of the matter is that you are supporting radical Shias in Iraq and militant groups there and terror groups who have engaged in heinous sectarian crimes against Iraqi Sunni Arabs. You cannot just blame KSA for everything and ignore everything your own regime is doing.

Saudis were once again "invited" by Hadi who is the legitimate president of Yemen. Much like Al-Assad is in Syria at least. The difference between Hadi and Al-Assad is that Hadi has not killed over 300.000 people.

Also the Houthis are openly supported by Iran. Everyone knows this. The same Houthis who tried to take all of Yemen by force. They would have continued to occupy areas of Yemen where they are not welcome had it not been for the Arab intervention in Yemen.

In any case I do believe that the conflict in Yemen could have been handled differently so I am not going to discuss this topic in detail as I believe that Yemenis themselves should solve it. Houthi's trying to conquer all of Yemen by force is obviously not part of any sane plane. We in Egypt have bad memories with Yemen anyway and our invasion was a mistake despite our side (the republican side) eventually prevailing. The price for that victory was too high. Yemen is notorious for being a trap for every foreigner due to the geography and nature of people and how everyone in Yemen is armed to the teeth. Those are very proud people.

Anyway you forget that KSA is sharing an almost 2000 km long border with Yemen. You on the other hand do not so the conflict there does not impact you at all. Likewise the Iranian-Afghan border and what happens there does not impact KSA.

 

[Takaavar]

Iran was urging for a Shia revolution in Iraq. Saddam went to war over that. You know something is wrong when you drag religion into 'revolution'. Even more when it's exclusive to one sect. The more religious angle is attributed the more counterproductive will it be. Saudi Arabia and Iran have national interests, sure they really do hate each other. But, they don't actually believe anything they do is an 'Islamic revolution' or 'uprising against oppression'. As far as they're concerned, that's just to rile people up, their personal concerns are related to national matters. This is why we will never see direct war by Iran on Saudi Arabia. It will try to hurt Saudi Arabia through proxies. If the war becomes direct than suddenly people will regret that their precious lives are in danger and will back off quickly. No modern day Iranian is vying for a war with Saudi Arabia. They may cheer for proxies but not direct involvement. That's like saying Iranians enjoyed the Iraq-Iran war. They don't want that misery to commence again.

Iran was NOT urging a Shia revolution in Iraq back then. You are apparently mistaking the order of the events lol, it was some time after Iran was on the offensive in the war that Iranian leaders backed a new govt in Iraq (funding Supreme Islamic Councile, etc.). You are trying to say Saddam's war was a reaction to Iran's action, which is the first time I read such theory about Iran-Iraq war. Current Iran may seek more influence and power, true, just like any regional/world power.

@Takaavar

What are Iranian people saying about the current situation? Do they expect a flare up or just business as usual?

The development is seen as unwanted escalaion , and although Saudi is badly condemned in Iran, the embassy raid was also condemned, it looks similar to the recent issue about UK and the subsequent UK embassy raid which UK gradually established ties again.

 

[Levina]

It is not Saudi but the Saudi ruling family (in particular) which is in deep trouble.

• Intensifying infighting between the royals: Very recently letters calling for the overthrow of King circulated in social media, and it managed to grab a lot of eyeballs.
• Falling oil prices- Saudi along with other GCC countries, are paying dearly for their stubbornness to not reduce the production. Saudi Arabia has withdrawn close to $70bn from overseas investment funds to shore up its fiscal position duecto tumbling oil prices.
• Hajj disasters and legitimacy issue: Since there are no monarchies in Islam, legitimacy is a fundamental issue. After the Hajj disasters when the fingers were pointed at a senior member of the government, then the Saudi authority was quick to dismiss it. The buck was passed on to the lower ranks.
• Rampant corruption within the government which is often not mentioned out of the fear for repurcussions.

 

[graphican]

If Saudis are able to build the tallest building in the world, that would surely be a great strategic asset.

Leadership is a learned skills. I't doesn't flow in the blood. In Pakistan, we are against Blawal Zardari not because is "Baji type" but because he is holding a chair which he never deserved at this point in his age. Likewise in Saudi Arabia, government is descending from blood line to blood line, without children proving themselves, they are getting most valued positions. The decisions they make are driven by emotion and delusion of power.

If I was the decision maker, I would never have crated hatred within my country's border. Saudis could learn some from Pakistan where MQM terrorists are are being cleaned bottom-up instead of top-down. You incapacitate the power before removing the power-head. Now when Shia leader was killed, all of his fallowing is there on the ground and offend and raged and Saudis have no strategy calm them down other than brute force. If you wouldn't calm them, there will be a war within the borders which Saudis cannot afford at this stage.

 

[airmarshal]

If Saudi Arabia is "isolated" which is a nice joke considering their influence on numerous fields, economic size, importance and long-standing relations with key countries, Muslim as non-Muslim, then I guess that Iran must be close to disappearing.

Let's ignore the fact that KSA is a G-20 major economies member state (Iran is nowhere close) and that they have cordial ties with almost every country expect the Iranian regime which is worse off on almost every front.

Also PressTV has to be one of the most absurd propaganda channels available in the ME. Nobody but Iranian regime supporters and radical Shias read that media let alone read it as the Gospel.



Both regimes need to grow up and stop those destructive proxy wars that harm other countries while they are hardly hit themselves by their destructive actions on this front. What is more pathetic is that they are the only countries in the ME who claim to be Islamic.

I as most other Arabs obviously prefer KSA and will stand with them against Iran as they are our brethren and neighbors but their regime is not my favorite cup of coffee either. Reforms are needed. The Iranian regime is much worse for the Arab world though and on many fronts they are much worse too. For instance when it comes to executions in general and executions of political opponents and religious figures.

Iranian hypocrisy is also annoying and meddling in the affairs of sovereign countries. We Egyptians experienced that when we had our years of turmoil which we are slowly escaping from for the better.

It's time for Egypt to become a major player in the ME again as we have been for millenniums. Not only are we the most populous ME country but we are also the oldest nation state on the planet after all and one of the most influential historically and even today when we are in our worst state. Egyptian influence, once we recover, will be good news for the region.

I feel that Egypt and a Turkey without Erdogan could serve as a much saner alternative to the Saudi Arabian-Iranian proxy wars and tiring feud that does nothing but cause trouble for the region and the image of Islam and Muslims. Both parties are so stubborn that they refuse to admit their faults but they must be blind. I don't know what it takes for them to change. Regime change in both countries? Don't know what it will take. If this continues they will take everyone down with them in the region.

Nothing against ordinary Saudi Arabians or Iranians but are you guys not ashamed of your regimes behavior and your blind support of this behavior? Are you guys not neighbors? Then act like neighbors and if the hatred is so, so big then at least ignore each other for the betterment of everyone around you. This would only be good news for you guys too.

Unlike you, I dont pick and choose between Muslim countries be it Saudi Arabia or Iran. For me, as its the belief given by Quran, Muslims are one nation. Their regimes are crazy but guess who they are hurting? The Muslims in general. So this madness has to stop!

 

[500]

So who is in trouble again?

 

[airmarshal]

View attachment 284948

So who is in trouble again?

Numbers is never a measure of trouble or lack of it.

 

[somebozo]

9/11 Was the biggest diplomatic crisis to ever hit Saudi Arabia and it survived well..
So it will survive the current turm oil as well..there are indeed going to be a lot of pissed off governments because Saudi crude boost is hurting USA, Russia and Iran simultaneously..

 

[Anuj Tagra]

I don't get what you're banking on foreign analysis. If you want Saudi Arabia to be in 'trouble' do so yourself and take up your fight/settle the score already. Yemeni's, Syrians and Iraqi's should not be used as pawns for this fight. Man up and fight each other. Obviously the target here isn't the Saudi regime. The target is the Saudi culture, Iran sees Saudi Arabia as strategic place to influence Muslims around the world and in the local region. It wants to convert it from a Sunni bastion of influence into a Shia bastion of influence. This is why so much importance is attached to Saudi Arabia by Iran. This isn't simply a case of dispute with the regime. It's the same thing Iran wanted with Saddam, they wanted Iraq to be lead by Shia government for more influence/power in the region. Saddam saw that as a threat and went to war. Saudi Arabia also sees this as an threat and is taking measures we've seen lately.

If Iran get's a hold of Saudi Arabia, they will change Islam as we know it. It will ban all Sunni Islamic history/theology/schools of thought and change the narrative within Islam. Obviously this is seen as very provocative goals. If your goal is to have hegemonic intentions in the region don't complain if they try countering it.

What worries me is Iranians don't know what they will get them selves into. Iranians are secular people who live secular lifestyle. However they think this strategy to use religion as tool to gain influence is working and won't have major consequences. This is why they are going ahead with the goal to antagonize Saudi Arabia and possibly destabilize it. Because they think it work like Iraq worked in the long term.

And don't bring up Israel here. Your ambitions in the Arab world have no relation to Israel. Really today we can only consider Palestinian parties to be anti-Israel. We saw Hezbollah today, in response to Israeli assassination they blew up some grass near an Israeli jeep. But showed more outrage over the Saudi execution of Saudi Shia cleric. It's clear that Israel is the least of their concerns.

Brother,what do you mean by that?