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MGI is publishing this report on Saudi Arabia at a time of change in the Kingdom. After a surge in prosperity over the past decade, the economy is at a transition point. We see a real opportunity for the Kingdom to inject new dynamism into the economy through a productivity- and investment-led transformation that could help ensure future growth, employment, and prosperity for all Saudis.
An oil price boom from 2003 to 2013 fueled rising prosperity in Saudi Arabia, which became
the world’s 19th-largest economy. GDP doubled, household income rose by 75 percent, and
1.7 million jobs were created for Saudis, including for a growing number of Saudi women. The
government invested heavily in education, health, and infrastructure and built up reserves
amounting to almost 100 percent of GDP in 2014.
The Kingdom can no longer grow based on oil revenue and public spending, in the face of
a changing global energy market and a demographic transition that will lead to a bulge in
the number of working-age Saudis by 2030. Current labor participation is 41 percent, and
productivity growth of 0.8 percent from 2003 to 2013 lagged behind that of many emerging
economies. Foreign workers on temporary contracts who are paid considerably less than Saudi nationals today constitute more than half the labor force.
We have developed a model that integrates Saudi Arabia’s economic, labor market, and fiscal
perspectives. It shows that even if the Kingdom introduces reactive policy changes such as a
budget freeze or immigration curbs in the face of these challenging conditions, unemployment
will rise rapidly, household income will fall, and the fiscal position of the national government will deteriorate sharply.
However, a productivity-led transformation of the economy could enable Saudi Arabia to again
double its GDP and create as many as six million new Saudi jobs by 2030. We estimate this
would require about $4 trillion in investment. Eight sectors—mining and metals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, tourism and hospitality, health care, finance, and construction—have the potential to generate more than 60 percent of this growth opportunity.
To enable this transformation, Saudi Arabia will need to accelerate the shift from its current
government-led economic model to a more market-based approach. In the labor market,
greater workforce participation by Saudi men and women is essentia lto achieve higher
household income. The proportion and number of foreign workers may decline but they would
likely benefit from higher wages and better conditions. Faster productivity growth requires
better business regulation and more openness to competition, trade, and investment. Improved efficiency of spending and new revenue sources, possibly including taxes and higher domestic energy prices, can help ensure fiscal sustainability.
All stakeholders, including the private sector, foreign investors, and households, will need to be
involved in this transformation. The state will have to embrace a new delivery philosophy while
businesses adapt to a more competitive environment and the individual Saudi citizen takes more personal accountability. The transition will be challenging, but the new era of economic growth and employment it could usher in would be more sustainable than the oil booms of the past.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
...
THE $4 TRILLION INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
These outcomes are not a foregone conclusion. There is another path. In the next 15 years
to 2030, Saudi Arabia could potentially double its GDP again, increase real Saudi household
income by about 60 percent and create as many as six million new Saudi jobs. The GDP
increase amounts to about $800 billion, the equivalent of adding Turkey’s economy today,
or three Finlands. Unemployment would decline to about 7 percent (Exhibit E4).
In this report we have projected outcomes for Saudi households. The size and nature of the foreign workforce in Saudi Arabia is highly changeable, and most of these non-Saudi workers do not permanently settle in the Kingdom. Projecting gains in their living standards and income
is therefore challenging and subject to specific policy implementation. However, foreigners
will benefit—as Saudis will—from changes that will make the entire workforce more
productive, thus raising wages and improving working conditions.
This transformation would wean Saudi Arabia off its heavy dependence on oil: under this
scenario, non-oil revenue could increase from 10 percent of total government revenue
to 70 percent. The change could also fundamentally alter the dominant role of the public
sector in society, with wages from private-sector employment rising from 19 percent of total
household income to 58 percent.
Achieving such growth would require an acceleration of productivity growth combined with
a continued high rate of investment. Together, these would drive a very robust expansion
of the non-oil private sector. We estimate the investment needs at about $4 trillion. This is
about three times the size of the investment made in the Saudi economy during the 2003–13
oil boom, which in itself was three times the investment of the previous decade. Much of it
would come from non-government sources including both Saudi and foreign investors.
While the non-oil private sector is relatively small in Saudi Arabia, it has potential to
drive much of the growth.
Already during the 2003–13 period, the non-oil private sector outperformed the economy as a whole, albeit starting from a low base. It grew at about 10 percent annually, much faster than the overall 6 percent GDP growth rate. Growth was broadly based, with consumption-based sectors such as transport, communications, retail and wholesale trade, and business services growing the fastest. The non-oil private sector’s productivity growth was also more rapid than the rest of the economy, with an average of 2.5 percent per year. Sectors such as manufacturing were among the brightest spots.
Between now and 2030, there are opportunities throughout the economy to supercharge
this non-oil growth. In this report, we highlight eight sectors that analysis suggests have
some of the biggest potential, and could contribute more than 60 percent of the overall
growth needed to double GDP by 2030. They are mining and metals, petrochemicals,
manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, tourism and hospitality, health care, finance,
and construction.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/Mc...I Saudi Arabia_Full report_December 2015.ashx
An oil price boom from 2003 to 2013 fueled rising prosperity in Saudi Arabia, which became
the world’s 19th-largest economy. GDP doubled, household income rose by 75 percent, and
1.7 million jobs were created for Saudis, including for a growing number of Saudi women. The
government invested heavily in education, health, and infrastructure and built up reserves
amounting to almost 100 percent of GDP in 2014.
The Kingdom can no longer grow based on oil revenue and public spending, in the face of
a changing global energy market and a demographic transition that will lead to a bulge in
the number of working-age Saudis by 2030. Current labor participation is 41 percent, and
productivity growth of 0.8 percent from 2003 to 2013 lagged behind that of many emerging
economies. Foreign workers on temporary contracts who are paid considerably less than Saudi nationals today constitute more than half the labor force.
We have developed a model that integrates Saudi Arabia’s economic, labor market, and fiscal
perspectives. It shows that even if the Kingdom introduces reactive policy changes such as a
budget freeze or immigration curbs in the face of these challenging conditions, unemployment
will rise rapidly, household income will fall, and the fiscal position of the national government will deteriorate sharply.
However, a productivity-led transformation of the economy could enable Saudi Arabia to again
double its GDP and create as many as six million new Saudi jobs by 2030. We estimate this
would require about $4 trillion in investment. Eight sectors—mining and metals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, tourism and hospitality, health care, finance, and construction—have the potential to generate more than 60 percent of this growth opportunity.
To enable this transformation, Saudi Arabia will need to accelerate the shift from its current
government-led economic model to a more market-based approach. In the labor market,
greater workforce participation by Saudi men and women is essentia lto achieve higher
household income. The proportion and number of foreign workers may decline but they would
likely benefit from higher wages and better conditions. Faster productivity growth requires
better business regulation and more openness to competition, trade, and investment. Improved efficiency of spending and new revenue sources, possibly including taxes and higher domestic energy prices, can help ensure fiscal sustainability.
All stakeholders, including the private sector, foreign investors, and households, will need to be
involved in this transformation. The state will have to embrace a new delivery philosophy while
businesses adapt to a more competitive environment and the individual Saudi citizen takes more personal accountability. The transition will be challenging, but the new era of economic growth and employment it could usher in would be more sustainable than the oil booms of the past.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
...
THE $4 TRILLION INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
These outcomes are not a foregone conclusion. There is another path. In the next 15 years
to 2030, Saudi Arabia could potentially double its GDP again, increase real Saudi household
income by about 60 percent and create as many as six million new Saudi jobs. The GDP
increase amounts to about $800 billion, the equivalent of adding Turkey’s economy today,
or three Finlands. Unemployment would decline to about 7 percent (Exhibit E4).
In this report we have projected outcomes for Saudi households. The size and nature of the foreign workforce in Saudi Arabia is highly changeable, and most of these non-Saudi workers do not permanently settle in the Kingdom. Projecting gains in their living standards and income
is therefore challenging and subject to specific policy implementation. However, foreigners
will benefit—as Saudis will—from changes that will make the entire workforce more
productive, thus raising wages and improving working conditions.
This transformation would wean Saudi Arabia off its heavy dependence on oil: under this
scenario, non-oil revenue could increase from 10 percent of total government revenue
to 70 percent. The change could also fundamentally alter the dominant role of the public
sector in society, with wages from private-sector employment rising from 19 percent of total
household income to 58 percent.
Achieving such growth would require an acceleration of productivity growth combined with
a continued high rate of investment. Together, these would drive a very robust expansion
of the non-oil private sector. We estimate the investment needs at about $4 trillion. This is
about three times the size of the investment made in the Saudi economy during the 2003–13
oil boom, which in itself was three times the investment of the previous decade. Much of it
would come from non-government sources including both Saudi and foreign investors.
While the non-oil private sector is relatively small in Saudi Arabia, it has potential to
drive much of the growth.
Already during the 2003–13 period, the non-oil private sector outperformed the economy as a whole, albeit starting from a low base. It grew at about 10 percent annually, much faster than the overall 6 percent GDP growth rate. Growth was broadly based, with consumption-based sectors such as transport, communications, retail and wholesale trade, and business services growing the fastest. The non-oil private sector’s productivity growth was also more rapid than the rest of the economy, with an average of 2.5 percent per year. Sectors such as manufacturing were among the brightest spots.
Between now and 2030, there are opportunities throughout the economy to supercharge
this non-oil growth. In this report, we highlight eight sectors that analysis suggests have
some of the biggest potential, and could contribute more than 60 percent of the overall
growth needed to double GDP by 2030. They are mining and metals, petrochemicals,
manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, tourism and hospitality, health care, finance,
and construction.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/Mc...I Saudi Arabia_Full report_December 2015.ashx