RUSSIA: PERSPECTIVES ON PRESIDENT PUTIN’S VISIT TO INDIA

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http://www.saag.org/\papers21\paper2096.html

RUSSIA: PERSPECTIVES ON PRESIDENT PUTIN’S VISIT TO INDIA (JANUARY 2007)

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

President Putin of Russia will be visiting India in the last week of January 2007. He will be the Chief Guest of Honor at India’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26, 2007. This will be a singular honor for both Russia and India.

President Putin last visited India from December 02-05, 2004. That visit was strategically significant for India as the wide range of agreements signed then and Russia’s support for India’s candidature as Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council with full veto powers gladdened Indian hearts and provided a value-added dimension to the time-tested Russia-India strategic partnership.

Russia in the Yeltsin years and those of his predecessor had veered away from its strategic partnership with India. It was President Putin who has to be given credit for restoring this vital strategic partnership to its original tenor. It was that which prompted this author to title the review of President Putin’s 2004 visit as: “Russia Rekindles Strategic Partnership With India” (http://saag.org/papers12/paper1180.html). Two years down the line, the global and regional strategic and security environment has changed considerably for both Russia and India. These contextual factors need to be factored-in while exploring the perspectives on President Putin’s visit to India in January 2007.

This paper attempts to explore these perspectives under the following heads:

* Russia-India Strategic Partnership: The Contextual Factors in 2007.
* Russia and India : The Strategic Convergence of Interests
* US-India Strategic Partnership and its Impact on Russia
* President Putin’s 2007 Visit to India: Perspectives

Russia-India Strategic Partnership: The Contextual Factors in 2007

In relation to Russia, the contextual factors that need to be taken into account are: (1) Russia is back in the global power game (2) It has declared its strategic aim of re-emerging as an independent global power center (3) Economic growth rates of Russia are double those of the other G-8 countries (4) Soaring oil and natural gas revenues have added to Russia’s coercive strategic, political and economic power (5) Strategically, at the global level, Russia unlike the United States has no over-extended military commitments to bog it down (6) This affords Russia with significant strategic flexibility and space to maneuver around compared to USA (7) Russia-China strategic partnership adds further options to Russia’s global power games.

In relation to India, the following contextual factors come into focus: (1) India’s sustained high rates of economic growth have aroused global interest in investments in India (2) US-India Nuclear Deal reflects the United States serious strategic and political interest in India (3) United States concedes that India is likely to emerge as a key global player even though it is unwilling to concede to India its status as the predominant regional power in South Asia because of its obsession with Pakistan (4) India’s relations with China are far more even and both have expressed interest in strategic cooperation.

The above aspects will evidently be factored in as Russia and India sit down for their Summit Meeting in January 2007. Preparatory work at the officials level has already taken place including the visit of India’s National Security Adviser to Moscow.

However, one does require to note here that none of the above contextual factors can detract or dilute the existing strategic partnership that exists between Russia and India.

It is more likely that in 2007, as both Russia and India emerge as more confident powers strategically, politically and economically, the January 2007 visit of President Putin to India could witness some significant value additions to the relationship between the two countries.

Russia and India: The Strategic Convergence of Interests

The strategic convergence of interests between Russia and India as on today can be spelt out as under:

* At the global level, India still views Russia as an independent power center. While India may see Russia today in the “multi polarity” dimension, India can still be said to view Russia as a countervailing power at the global level.
* Russia views India as a value-added “natural ally” in the global chess game. It does view India as the regional power in South Asia and has made no substantial moves towards Pakistan in respect for India’s strategic sensitivities.
* The strategic dimension of Russia - India partnership stands greatly reinforced today by the “energy security” that Russia will provide in oil and natural gas supplies in addition to civilian nuclear power reactors.
* In terms of high-technology requirements for India’s space and military programs, Russia continues to be a reliable partner.
* Russia and India have both been plagued with Islamic Jehadi terrorism and have a strong convergence to meet this threat.

The most significant and which provides the bedrock of the Russia-India strategic partnership is their defense relationship. For 40 years now Russia has been the prime supplier of advanced weapon systems and military hardware for the Indian Armed Forces. Russian weapon systems are cost-wise economical for India and have been adequately combat-tested in India’s armed conflicts. There is also the important component of assured supplies and not being prone to impediments by Russian legislative processes.

India’s Armed Forces in each Service can be said to have a dependency on Russian military hardware averaging 70-75%. This is likely to continue and is a strong determinant of the Russia-India strategic partnership.

During President Putin’s last visit it was agreed that Russia-India would transform their defense relationship from a “buyer-seller” one to that of an expanded joint research and development and joint production one. The super-sonic cruise missile BRAHMOS being the example.

In the last two years since President Putin’s visit to India these convergences have shown no sign of dilution. On the contrary defense acquisitions by India from Russia have increased.

US-India Strategic Partnership and its Impact on Russia

The US-India strategic partnership has been in the news for the last five years. In fact a curious co-incidence exists in terms of time spans of President Putin’s drive and determination to re-kindle the Russia-India strategic partnership and President Bush’s drive and determination to evolve a meaningful US-India strategic partnership.

It cannot be said with certainty that one drives the other. But what can be said with certainty is that it is a measure of India’s growing power potential. The Indian political leadership so far has not demonstrated a strategic vision to capitalize this potential fully with its over-obsession with Pakistan related issues.

Nothing has come to the notice of this author in terms of writings of the Russian strategic community expressing political or security concerns about the evolving US-India strategic partnership. This is very much unlike the case of China which perceives the evolving US-India strategic partnership as China-centric and containment oriented. It finds reflections in Chinese strategic writings.

In terms of impact on Russia of the US-India evolving strategic partnership, Russia’s attitudes can be summed up as follows:

* Russia is not overly concerned about the US-India strategic partnership
* Russia is conscious that in terms of strategic choices, India’s preferences would be determined for quite some time between a “time-tested” Russia-India strategic relationship (minus the Yeltsin aberrations under US pressure) and an “evolving” US-India strategic relationship in which regional rather than global imponderables predominate.
* Russia is aware that India can ill-ignore a resurgent global independent power center taking shape in Moscow.
* Russia is confident that in terms of energy security, high technology access and reliability of military hardware acquisitions, India has no viable alternatives.

* Russia is conscious that Indian public opinion has been won over by it by Russia’s unambiguous political support on global and regional issues.

Hence, one could assert confidently in terms of analysis that the evolving US-India strategic partnership is unlikely to weigh heavily in Russia-India discussions during President Putin’s visit to India in January 2007.

President Putin’s 2007 visit to India: Perspectives

President Putin’s presence as Chief Guest of Honor at India’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26, 2007 will be a historic one. In terms of political symbolism it would high-light the close strategic and political relationship that has exited between Russia and India from the 1950s.

Symbolically, it would be President Putin’s last presidential visit to India as he lays down office in 2008. On his last visit President Putin gave added impendence to Russia-India co-operation in the following fields:

* Russia’s political support for India’s candidature as Permanent Member of the UN Security Council with full veto powers.
* Russia-India space and outer space co-operation agreement to replace the 1994 agreement which had some global fetters.
* Russia-India agreement on “Strategic Co-operation in the Energy sector”
* Transforming the Russia-India defense co-operation from a “buyer-seller” relationship to a more pro-active co-operation in joint R & D and joint production of advanced weapon systems.

India’s requirements and expectations of Russia in the above fields continue to exist and one could expect more reinforcing agreements to intensify this co-operation.

India’s most critical requirements for its global power trajectory center on enhanced and assured oil and natural gas supplies, civilian nuclear power resources and military hardware for its Armed Forces.

In terms of perspectives these should form the core areas for announcement of significant initiatives in Russia-India co-operation during President Putin’s visit.

The Russian President could oblige India with significant political announcement in favor of India’s access to global civil nuclear power resources, imperatives of NSG support to India on the issue and a blue – print for Russia-India civilian nuclear co-operation in the years to come.

Concluding Observations

The Russian President visits India in January 2007 at a critical strategic and political juncture in Russia’s history. It comes at a time when Russia has signaled its intentions to emerge as a more forceful independent power center in global affairs.

India’s national security planners should have expectedly factored this in their strategic discussions that preceded the preparation for President Putin’s visit and the agreements that would be signed.

With no strategic or political contentious issues pervading the Russia-India strategic partnership, one could expect President Putin’s visit to India in January 2007 to be a highly successful one. Both sides can be expected to steer clear of their political equations with USA or China and concentrate on the strategic, political energy security and defense ties that bind them together.

President Putin can go back to Russia content and satisfied that during his tenure he has been able to re-kindle the Russia-India strategic partnership and also been able to add further value to it. He may be prompted to repeat what he said while concluding his last visit in 2004 at Bangalore: “We do not have problems between our two states. Our two nations are allies and friends for years to come. We are natural allies.”

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)

 

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Thanks for the article.