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DAWN.COM | Columnists | Rumour, rumour, everywhere
By Cyril Almeida
Friday, 27 Aug, 2010
This much is clear: the powers-that-be abroad and the kingmakers at home aren’t very enthused by the idea of another round of Nawaz Sharif in charge. By itself, however, that is unlikely to be a deal-breaker for him. If Mian Sahib wants something badly enough, nothing will stand in his way. But what does Sharif want? - File Photo.
When gossip is your oxygen, expect all sorts of silly rumours to proliferate. And when politics is your national sport, the silliness tends to grow exponentially.
Like the monster hiding in the cupboard that parents use to scare their children, the government is being warned, ‘Shape up or Kayani will come and eat your dinner’.
The MQM’s warning to the PPP has been lapped up by conspiracy theorists eager to see the back of the government. This largely because the MQM is seen as the army’s other version of a non-state actor, the one meant to balance out internal ‘threats’ like the PPP. If the MQM is saying it, then something must be up, goes the theory.
But wait a minute, weren’t we at a similar stage in the non-too-distant past? The time when the MQM suddenly withdrew its support for the NRO, sending the media into a speculative frenzy, trying frantically to connect the dots between the MQM’s sudden baulkiness and Zardari’s imminent ouster?
What lies in the hearts and minds of politicians is often fairly easy to figure out — self-preservation, power, self-aggrandisement, greed etc — but it is even easier to figure out in the case of the MQM: control of Karachi.
Karachi is the MQM’s bread, butter, jam and marmalade all rolled into one. Everything the party does begins and ends with the aim of tightening its grip over the city.
Right now, the MQM doesn’t need the army. With the numbers in parliament falling a certain way, the party knows it can slap around the PPP, strut around a bit, flex its muscles, be a pain in the neck — and get away with it all.
The public doesn’t get to hear about the pound of flesh that is extracted, the further prizes and concessions that the MQM walks away with each time, but that doesn’t mean it’s not real. In this case, if no one is around to hear a tree falling in the forest, it still makes a noise, thank you very much. So leave aside that silliness.
The real problem with the ‘Kayani is coming’ rumour is that it doesn’t make any sense. Yes, much of what the army has done in the past doesn’t make any sense, but ousting the government right now makes even less sense.
Game theorists and political scientists and psephologists could probably articulate it in a more sophisticated way, but the basic logic isn’t very difficult to grasp. Before you do A — oust a government — you need to ask yourself, one, what’s in it for me?; and two, what will I replace it with?
To neither question would Kayani have a very good answer right now.
Start with the first one, what’s in it for Kayani? His job is secure for another three years; the political government has surrendered the national security and foreign policy domains to his guys; he’s got his favourite bugaboo, India, and his favourite whipping boy, the US, to play with in his favourite backyard, Afghanistan — he’s got pretty much everything a soldier can dream of.
Altruism isn’t a motivating factor here. (If you believe it can be, then off to the land of fairy tales and flying pigs for you.) Survey the land before you. Government has no money, land is flood-ravaged, economy is on the verge of collapse, inflation is looking to fire on all cylinders again, security is tenuous in swathes of the country — why exactly would anyone want to take on that challenge? (Remember, altruism isn’t a motivating factor here.)
When you have what you prize most, job security and the levers to control your favourite toys and pastimes, why would you want to bite into a ******* apple? Answer: you don’t.
Which renders moot the question of what would you replace the present government with. Bangladesh model, mid-term elections, all have their own set of problems. But that’s irrelevant because Kayani isn’t about to intervene.
Aha, but there’s always his friend, the adjudicator, who could do the job instead, some argue. But that’s problematic, too.
By now it’s pretty clear there is at least some convergence of interests between Kayani, the adjudicator and Nawaz Sharif. But convergence of interests doesn’t mean acting in consort.
Much as the court’s disdain for the present government is clear, it has been impeded by at least one thing: the need to keep the wider legal community — high-profile lawyers, retired judges and a unified bench — on board.
A move against the government, whether a blunt hatchet job or a clean surgical strike, would be controversial and would split the court’s core constituency, and possibly the court itself.
Thus far, the saviour complex hasn’t overwhelmed some judges’ concern for personal reputation and that’s unlikely to change. Besides, playing sidekick to another army chief may be too much for an ‘independent’ court to swallow.
What about Mian Sahib, surely he will strike soon, some speculate/hope. He remains a bit of a mystery, at least to me.
This much is clear: the powers-that-be abroad and the kingmakers at home aren’t very enthused by the idea of another round of Nawaz Sharif in charge. By itself, however, that is unlikely to be a deal-breaker for him. If Mian Sahib wants something badly enough, nothing will stand in his way. But what does Sharif want?
Here’s where opinion is divided. Some think the lion has gone long in the tooth, that he’s lost the will to fight or perhaps he’s taken all that talk of democracy a bit too seriously. Others think that, like one of those predators on Discovery, Sharif has settled into the sand, lying motionless until, snap!
Which is it? Your guess is as good as mine. The floods, however, have made an election in the near term impossible. Tune in to Raiwind later this year to find out more.
So is Zardari safe for now? Probably.
And how he must be grinning. In the Usual Suspects, Kevin Spacey’s character remarks, “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” Zardari may have even outdone Spacey’s Devil — he’s right there, in plain sight, frustratingly out of reach of his enemies. His inner child may even be tempting him into a dancing a little jig.
But Zardari shouldn’t be too smug. His greatest problem remains what it has always been: Zardari himself.
cyril.a@gmail.com
By Cyril Almeida
Friday, 27 Aug, 2010
This much is clear: the powers-that-be abroad and the kingmakers at home aren’t very enthused by the idea of another round of Nawaz Sharif in charge. By itself, however, that is unlikely to be a deal-breaker for him. If Mian Sahib wants something badly enough, nothing will stand in his way. But what does Sharif want? - File Photo.
When gossip is your oxygen, expect all sorts of silly rumours to proliferate. And when politics is your national sport, the silliness tends to grow exponentially.
Like the monster hiding in the cupboard that parents use to scare their children, the government is being warned, ‘Shape up or Kayani will come and eat your dinner’.
The MQM’s warning to the PPP has been lapped up by conspiracy theorists eager to see the back of the government. This largely because the MQM is seen as the army’s other version of a non-state actor, the one meant to balance out internal ‘threats’ like the PPP. If the MQM is saying it, then something must be up, goes the theory.
But wait a minute, weren’t we at a similar stage in the non-too-distant past? The time when the MQM suddenly withdrew its support for the NRO, sending the media into a speculative frenzy, trying frantically to connect the dots between the MQM’s sudden baulkiness and Zardari’s imminent ouster?
What lies in the hearts and minds of politicians is often fairly easy to figure out — self-preservation, power, self-aggrandisement, greed etc — but it is even easier to figure out in the case of the MQM: control of Karachi.
Karachi is the MQM’s bread, butter, jam and marmalade all rolled into one. Everything the party does begins and ends with the aim of tightening its grip over the city.
Right now, the MQM doesn’t need the army. With the numbers in parliament falling a certain way, the party knows it can slap around the PPP, strut around a bit, flex its muscles, be a pain in the neck — and get away with it all.
The public doesn’t get to hear about the pound of flesh that is extracted, the further prizes and concessions that the MQM walks away with each time, but that doesn’t mean it’s not real. In this case, if no one is around to hear a tree falling in the forest, it still makes a noise, thank you very much. So leave aside that silliness.
The real problem with the ‘Kayani is coming’ rumour is that it doesn’t make any sense. Yes, much of what the army has done in the past doesn’t make any sense, but ousting the government right now makes even less sense.
Game theorists and political scientists and psephologists could probably articulate it in a more sophisticated way, but the basic logic isn’t very difficult to grasp. Before you do A — oust a government — you need to ask yourself, one, what’s in it for me?; and two, what will I replace it with?
To neither question would Kayani have a very good answer right now.
Start with the first one, what’s in it for Kayani? His job is secure for another three years; the political government has surrendered the national security and foreign policy domains to his guys; he’s got his favourite bugaboo, India, and his favourite whipping boy, the US, to play with in his favourite backyard, Afghanistan — he’s got pretty much everything a soldier can dream of.
Altruism isn’t a motivating factor here. (If you believe it can be, then off to the land of fairy tales and flying pigs for you.) Survey the land before you. Government has no money, land is flood-ravaged, economy is on the verge of collapse, inflation is looking to fire on all cylinders again, security is tenuous in swathes of the country — why exactly would anyone want to take on that challenge? (Remember, altruism isn’t a motivating factor here.)
When you have what you prize most, job security and the levers to control your favourite toys and pastimes, why would you want to bite into a ******* apple? Answer: you don’t.
Which renders moot the question of what would you replace the present government with. Bangladesh model, mid-term elections, all have their own set of problems. But that’s irrelevant because Kayani isn’t about to intervene.
Aha, but there’s always his friend, the adjudicator, who could do the job instead, some argue. But that’s problematic, too.
By now it’s pretty clear there is at least some convergence of interests between Kayani, the adjudicator and Nawaz Sharif. But convergence of interests doesn’t mean acting in consort.
Much as the court’s disdain for the present government is clear, it has been impeded by at least one thing: the need to keep the wider legal community — high-profile lawyers, retired judges and a unified bench — on board.
A move against the government, whether a blunt hatchet job or a clean surgical strike, would be controversial and would split the court’s core constituency, and possibly the court itself.
Thus far, the saviour complex hasn’t overwhelmed some judges’ concern for personal reputation and that’s unlikely to change. Besides, playing sidekick to another army chief may be too much for an ‘independent’ court to swallow.
What about Mian Sahib, surely he will strike soon, some speculate/hope. He remains a bit of a mystery, at least to me.
This much is clear: the powers-that-be abroad and the kingmakers at home aren’t very enthused by the idea of another round of Nawaz Sharif in charge. By itself, however, that is unlikely to be a deal-breaker for him. If Mian Sahib wants something badly enough, nothing will stand in his way. But what does Sharif want?
Here’s where opinion is divided. Some think the lion has gone long in the tooth, that he’s lost the will to fight or perhaps he’s taken all that talk of democracy a bit too seriously. Others think that, like one of those predators on Discovery, Sharif has settled into the sand, lying motionless until, snap!
Which is it? Your guess is as good as mine. The floods, however, have made an election in the near term impossible. Tune in to Raiwind later this year to find out more.
So is Zardari safe for now? Probably.
And how he must be grinning. In the Usual Suspects, Kevin Spacey’s character remarks, “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” Zardari may have even outdone Spacey’s Devil — he’s right there, in plain sight, frustratingly out of reach of his enemies. His inner child may even be tempting him into a dancing a little jig.
But Zardari shouldn’t be too smug. His greatest problem remains what it has always been: Zardari himself.
cyril.a@gmail.com
