Rs 200 Billion corruption Scandal=LNG

[Patriot forever]

LNG can not be stored for months it have to be consumed immediately but we can order for future months, yesterday Nadeem Babar accepted that LNG was at 5.5% of Brent in September but they couldnot placed an order.

This is what I was mentioning, they can not order future cargoes unless it is booked by local consumers, this is by regulation to avoid deficit.
If they ordered future cargoes without guaranteed purchase by local enterprises Gas is wasted and deficit goes to government.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

This is what I was mentioning, they can not order future cargoes unless it is booked by local consumers, this is by regulation to avoid deficit.
If they ordered future cargoes without guaranteed purchase by local enterprises Gas is wasted and deficit goes to government.

I case of SNGPL everyone knows the use of gas last year, production of gas and deficit. There is no rocket science to predict in May that there will gas shortage in Nov-Feb based on previous data and local gas output.

 

[Patriot forever]

I case of SNGPL everyone knows the use of gas last year, production of gas and deficit. There is no rocket science to predict in May that there will gas shortage in Nov-Feb based on previous data and local gas output.

Regulation has to be followed. They can not do that legally without confirmed purchases locally.

 

[Path-Finder]

@farok84 please help us with your knowledge!

 

[El Sidd]

Founder members of Sher Jawan Program @El Sidd @muhammadhafeezmalik come enlighten us how this is Imran Khan's fault

Qatar World Cup 2022 is important for Pakistan.

Mr. Niazi was duped about millions and millions of jobs Qatar promised.

 

[Norwegian]

what i read in dawn yesterday is total different story

DAWN has anti govt bias

How can someone sell U gas in winter on summer rates? Even you book in summer price will set for winter.

Because you were ruled by brainless Pmln

When prices were as low as >6 percent to 8 percent of Brent crude oil prices becuase of COVID, Pakistan could have easily clinch a deal of a long term contract for under 9 percent of Brent crude oil prices.

There was no such long term deal during unpredictable coronavirus crisis

what would we do with the additional gas in summer months

Give it for free to Pmln lovers @muhammadhafeezmalik

It's what kids do. Embezzle money from souda salaf shopping money and tell ammi jan things are more expensive today.

Childhood of Zardaris, Sharifs and their supporters

 

[Norwegian]

Regulation has to be followed. They can not do that legally without confirmed purchases locally.

Actually you can bypass all regulation in Pmln govt

Qatar World Cup 2022 is important for Pakistan.

No it isn't

Mr. Niazi was duped about millions and millions of jobs Qatar promised.

Qatar is not a friendly country just because Sharif family mafia wealth is stashed in there

 

[ziaulislam]

Dawn and tribune are fake news these days

By the way i blame the govt for expensive eggs during the winter..why dont they buy eggs during the summer and sell them in winter
Damn imran khan

what i read in dawn yesterday is total different story


تحریک انصاف یا مسلم لیگ (ن)، مہنگی ایل این جی کس نے خریدی؟
خرم حسین 04 دسمبر 2020

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لکھاری ڈان کے اسٹاف ممبر ہیں۔

اگر آپ آج کل ایل این جی کی درآمد کے حوالے سے ہونے والی بحث سے پریشان ہیں تو ہم آپ کے سامنے وہ نکتہ بیان کردیتے ہیں جو اس مسئلے کو سمجھنے کے لیے ضروری ہے۔
سردی کے موسم میں گیس کی طلب میں بہت زیادہ اضافہ ہوجاتا ہے اور سردی کے موسم میں گیس کی قلت کا سامنا ہوتا ہے۔ اس لیے دسمبر، جنوری اور فروری کے مہینوں کے لیے گیس درآمد کرنے کے انتظامات کئی مہینے پہلے ہی کرلیے جاتے ہیں۔ اگر پہلے ہی یہ انتظامات نہ کیے جائیں تو اس کا مطلب ہے کہ بعد میں مہنگے داموں گیس خریدنی پڑے گی، اور یہاں بالکل ایس ہی ہوا ہے۔
ایل این جی کی درآمد کا طریقہ کار تیل کی درآمد سے تھوڑا زیادہ پیچیدہ ہے۔ پہلے گیس کی تقسیم کار کمپنیوں خاص طور پر سوئی ناردرن گیس پائپ لائنز لمیٹڈ (ایس این جی پی ایل) سے گیس کی طلب کا تخمینہ مانگا جاتا ہے۔ ایس این جی پی ایل ملک کے شمالی صوبوں میں گیس کی فراہمی کی ذمہ دار ہے جہاں شدید سردی کے باعث گیس کی طلب میں اضافہ ہوجاتا ہے۔

مزید پڑھیے: وزیرِاعظم پروگرام کو چیلنج کرنے والوں کے خلاف کیا کوئی کارروائی ہوگی؟
گیس کے تخمینے پاکستان ایل این جی لمیٹڈ (پی ایل ایل) کو بھجوائے جاتے ہیں۔ پی ایل ایل ایک سرکاری کمپنی ہے جس کے ذمے ایل این جی کی درآمد کا کام ہے۔ پی ایل ایل کے مطابق اسے عام دنوں میں ایل این جی کا کارگو بک کرنے کے لیے 90 سے 120 دن درکار ہوتے ہیں۔ جب طلب کے تخمینے موصول ہوتے ہیں تو اس حساب سے ایل این جی کا آرڈر بک کردیا جاتا ہے۔
پی ایل ایل نے 2018ء میں ایک سخت خط لکھا جس میں تاخیر سے تخمینے کی فراہمی کے مسائل اور پھر اخراجات میں اضافے سے متعلق لکھا گیا تھا. خط کی ابتدائی سطریں اس طرح تھیں کہ ’ایس این جی پی ایل نے 25 اکتوبر کو لکھے گئے اپنے خط میں دسمبر 2018ء، جنوری 2019ء اور فروری 2019ء میں آر ایل این جی کی اضافی ضرورت سے مطلع کیا۔ اس ضمن میں آرڈر بک کرنے کے لیے درکار وقت کو مدِنظر نہیں رکھا گیا۔ سردیوں کے آغاز کی وجہ سے صورتحال مزید گھمبیر ہوگئی‘۔
’پی ایل ایل نے متعدد مرتبہ ایس این جی پی ایل اور پاور ڈویژن کو بروقت تخمینے دینے کے بارے میں مطلع کیا کیونکہ مسابقتی قیمتوں پر ایل این جی کی خریداری کے لیے 3 سے 4 ماہ کا عرصہ درکار ہوتا ہے۔ اس وقت ایل این جی کے ٹینڈر جاری کرنے سے بولی لگانے والوں کو راغب نہیں جاسکتا کیونکہ اس وقت عالمی سطح پر گیس کی طلب زیادہ ہے اور دستیاب گیس کی قیمت بھی ایک حد پر برقرار رہے گی‘۔
کچھ دنوں بعد پی ایل ایل نے وزارتِ توانائی کو ایک اور خط لکھا جس میں انہیں کہا کہ وہ جنوری اور فروری کی ایل این جی ضروریات پی ایس او کے ذریعے سے پوری کرلیں کیونکہ پی ایس او کو کانٹریکٹ گیس کی ملنے والی قیمت پی ایل ایل کو ملنے والی قیمتوں سے کم ہے۔
پی ایل ایل نے نومبر 2018ء میں 3 کارگو کے لیے بولیاں طلب کیں۔ ان کارگو کو جنوری اور فروری 2019ء میں یہاں پہنچنا تھا۔ ظاہر ہے کہ یہ بولیاں تاخیر سے طلب کی گئی تھیں اس وجہ سے برینٹ خام تیل کی قیمت کی نسبت یہ 14 فیصد زیادہ قیمت پر بولیاں لگیں۔ ایل این جی کی قیمت کا تعین عموماً برینٹ خام تیل کی قیمت کی نسبت سے کیا جاتا ہے۔
مزید پڑھیے: کورونا کے بڑھتے کیسز کے باوجود اپوزیشن جلسے کرنے سے کیوں نہیں رک رہی؟
خط میں کہا گیا کہ اس بات کے پیش نظر کہ پی ایس او کی جانب سے کیے گئے ایل این جی کے معاہدے میں قیمت کا تعین برینٹ تیل کے 13.37 فیصد کے حساب سے ہے جو پی ایل ایل کو ملنے والی سستی ترین بولی سے بھی کم ہے۔
پی ایل ایل نے وزارت کو مطلع کیا کہ ایل این جی کے ضمن ایک فیصد کا فرق بھی بہت بڑا فرق ہوتا ہے۔ اگر پی ایس او قطر کے ساتھ کیے گئے طویل مدتی معاہدے (جو گزشتہ حکومت نے کیا تھا اور موجودہ حکومت اس پر بہت مہنگا ہونے کے الزامات لگا رہی ہے) کی مدد سے گیس حاصل کرسکے تو اس سے ’ایک سے سوا کروڑ ڈالر کی بچت ہوسکتی ہے‘۔
یہ تھی تاخیر کرنے کی قیمت، یعنی ان میں برینٹ تیل کی قیمت میں اضافے اور گیس فراہمی کے وقت میں کمی کی وجہ سے اضافہ ہوتا رہا۔
گزشتہ سال پی ایل ایل کو طلب کے تخمینے اپریل کے مہینے میں ہی موصول ہوگئے تھے اور پی ایل ایل نے اس حساب سے سال بھر کی گیس خریداری کا شیڈول بھی تیار کرلیا تھا۔ اس شیڈول میں اکتوبر کے مہینے تک کے لیے 30 کارگو شامل تھے جبکہ نومبر اور دسمبر کے مہینے کے لیے بولیاں اگست میں طلب کی گئیں۔ ان بولیوں کے تحت اکتوبر اور نومبر کے مہینوں کے لیے 6 کارگو اور دسمبر کے مہینے کے لیے 4 کارگو بک کیے گئے۔
لیکن اس سال کچھ گڑبڑ ہوگئی۔ پی ایل ایل کی ویب سائٹ کے مطابق اگست کے مہینے میں بولیاں طلب کی گئیں جو ستمبر میں موصول ہونے والی گیس کے حوالے سے تھیں (یہ اسپاٹ کارگو تھا جسے طویل مدتی معاہدے میں طے شدہ مقدار سے زیادہ طلب کی صورت میں خریدا جاتا ہے)۔ پی ایل ایل کی قسمت اچھی تھی جو انہیں اس کی قیمت برینٹ کی قیمت کے 10.88 فیصد پر ملی (جبکہ معاہدے کی قیمت 13.37 فیصد تھی)۔ اس کی وجہ یہ تھی کہ کورونا کی وجہ سے مارکیٹ گراوٹ کا شکار تھی۔
مارکیٹ پر نظر رکھنے والوں کا کہنا ہے کہ اگست میں وہی وقت تھا کہ جب معمول کے مطابق سردیوں کے دوران طلب پوری کرنے کے لیے گیس خریداری کی بولیاں طلب کرلینی چاہیے تھیں اور کوشش کرکے ان کم قیمتوں پر 5 سالہ مدت کے گیس فراہمی کے معاہدے بھی کرنے چاہیے تھے۔
ان لوگوں کا کہنا ہے کہ اس دوران (پاکستان سے باہر) دیگر خریداروں کی جانب سے اس کم قیمت پر طویل مدت کے کم از کم 3 معاہدوں پر دستخط ہوئے ہیں۔ یہ سب برینٹ کی قیمت کے 10 فیصد سے کچھ زیادہ قیمت پر ہی طے پائے ہیں۔ یہ وہ قیمت ہے جو ان دنوں پاکستان کو ملنے والی قیمتوں سے بہت زیادہ کم ہے۔
مزید پڑھیے: کیا حکمران ملک چلانے کو مذاق سمجھتے ہیں؟
لیکن پاکستان نے ایسا کوئی معاہدہ نہیں کیا۔ اس کے برعکس پاکستان نے نومبر کے مہینے میں درکار گیس کے لیے ستمبر میں بولیاں طلب کیں اور یہ تمام بولیاں طویل مدتی معاہدے کی قیمت سے بہت زیادہ تھیں۔ ان میں سے سب سے کم بولیاں 13.48 اور 14.23 فیصد کی تھیں۔ کچھ بولیاں تو 15 اور 16 فیصد تک پہنچی ہوئی تھیں جو ایک طویل عرصے کے دوران سب سے مہنگی بولی تھی۔ اس کے ایک ہفتے بعد نومبر کے لیے ہی ایک بار پھر بولیاں طلب کی گئیں اور ان میں بھی سب سے کم بولی 13.87 کی تھی جو کہ معاہدے کی قیمت سے زیادہ ہے۔
اس وقت تک ایل این جی مارکیٹ میں یہ بات پھیل چکی تھی کہ پاکستان کو گیس کی فوری ضرورت ہے۔ حکومت نے دسمبر میں استعمال ہونے والی گیس کے 6 کارگو کے لیے 3 مہینے تاخیر سے اکتوبر میں بولیاں طلب کیں۔ اس کے بعد تو جیسے مارا ماری شروع ہوگئی۔ بولیاں لگنے کا سلسلہ تو شروع ہوگیا لیکن یہ 16.1 سے 19.3 فیصد کے درمیان تھیں۔ پاکستان کی تاریخ میں کبھی ایل این جی کی اتنی مہنگی قیمتیں نہیں دیکھی گئیں۔
اس شعبے سے تعلق رکھنے والے افراد کا خیال ہے کہ بدانتظامی کی وجہ سے اس موسمِ سرما میں ایل این جی کی درآمد میں پاکستان کو 20 کروڑ ڈالر کا نقصان ہوا ہے۔ ستم ظریفی دیکھیے کہ یہ سب ایک ایسے موقع پر ہورہا کہ جب موجودہ حکومت گزشتہ حکومت پر قطر سے کیے جانے ایل این جی کی درآمد کے 15 سالہ معاہدے پر کرپشن کے الزامات عائد کرنے میں مصروف ہے۔
یہ مضمون 3 دسمبر 2020ء کو ڈان اخبار میں شائع ہوا۔

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خرم حسین ڈان کے اسٹاف ممبر ہیں۔
انہیں ٹوئٹر پر فالو کریں۔ : khurramhusain@
ان کا ای میل ایڈریس ہے: khurram.husain@gmail.com

DAWN has anti govt bias

Because you were ruled by brainless Pmln

There was no such long term deal during unpredictable coronavirus crisis

Give it for free to Pmln lovers @muhammadhafeezmalik

Childhood of Zardaris, Sharifs and their supporters

More like anti govt ridiculous stupidity

 

[niaz]

@niaz. Sir u might want to share some insights on the topic.

I first heard Rauf Klasra making these allegations on a TV program I think sometimes in September or October 2019 on Dunya News Channel. I immediately sent an email to Mr.Klasra via Dunya News asking him to tell me which company can make the LNG terminal is RS 6-billion which was equal to about $60-milion at that time. Mr. Clara never replied or even acknowledged my email.

There are two main allegations, the Qatar LNG Contract, and the Engro LNG terminal.

The Qatar LNG contract price:

I have already discussed this matter in detail in my post #25 of 14/2/20 and Honourable Ejaz007 also referred to it in his post 0f 16/2/20.

Here is an excerpt from the@Ejaz007 post.

“Pakistan saved $600m in Qatar LNG deal: Bloomberg

ISLAMABAD: A Bloomberg news report has confirmed what the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz government had claimed that the LNG supply deal with Qatar saved the national exchequer millions of dollars.

A report from the Pakistan State Oil presented two weeks ago to Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum, and reviewed by the US financial daily, details how the 2016 deal came together with Qatar, the world’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas.”

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/366554-pakistan-saved-600m-in-qatar-lng-deal-bloomberg

Excerpt from my post #24 dated 14/2/2020.

“According to market sources, the benchmark for spot Asian LNG prices, JKM, has fallen more than 40% from the beginning of 2019 to about $5.20/MMBtu by the end of the year due to a wave of new supply from Australia and the US, and slowing demand growth in China.

Australian LNG is manufactured from the Methane associated with Coal mines of Australia. However, this is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Hence in Sept 2019, Pakistan tender 'Spot' prices quoted ranged from 8.7% (for one cargo) to 10.3% of Brent ex-ship. One must also realize that Spot prices are not always cheaper as the same can go up as easily as come down and supply is not assured. No country will rely on spot cargo to meet its energy demand. As in the case of Refinery product planning, you rely on term contracts from 80% of your requirements, leaving 20% to buy on Spot.

The real reason for the drop in the LNG prices is the slowdown in the GDP growth of China & India from the 2017/2018 period. How many people could have predicted in 2018 that Indian economic growth will slide down to about 5% from the 8% of the last 5 years or that Coronavirus and Hong Kong turmoil will seriously impact the economic activity in China? Everyone has 20/20 Hindsight and it is always easy to criticize after the event.”

LNG Terminal Cost.

If anyone cares to examine the first feasibility where the Rs 6-billion figure was mentioned carefully; one would realize that this plan envisaged using the existing oil jetty at Port Qasim. This was not practicable; because every 2nd or 3rd day, the jetty is occupied by the tankers discharging imported diesel and gasoline. and its occupation by the LNG vessel would cause a fuel shortage in the country.

LNG needs regasification before it can be used and unless you build a regasification plant on land costing about $130-million, you need a permanent jetty where a Floating Storage & Regasification Unit (FSRU) can be berthed until all of it can be regasified and discharged which takes much longer than simply discharging a normal oil tanker. Hence a separate jetty was needed. The cost of a jetty alone is about $60-million.

Here is the cost breakdown of a normal LNG receiving terminal.

					all numbers in million US$
		Land-based regasification					Terminal using FSRU
							like the Engro		l
Unloading lines		100​					nil
							nil
Lang Tanks		85​
Process equipment		130​					250	​
onshore infra-structure	nil						​
							30
Land & fees		125​					20	​
Grand total		560​					360	​

The figures are mentioned under heading 3.1 CAPEX COMPARISON

From:
https://www.jtsi.wa.gov.au/docs/def...iving-terminals-and-fsru.pdf?sfvrsn=9266d1c_8

If you don’t have the money to buy an FRSU then you rent one like the Engro Terminal.

"They cost about $300 million to build, or half as much as an onshore import terminal, and are up and running as much as six times faster, sometimes within as little as a year, according to owners Hoegh LN G and Excelerate Energy.

Competition to supply FSRUs has cut costs of leasing such vessels by 20% to about $120,000/day from five years ago, said Keith Bainbridge, managing director of industry consultant CS LNG in London"

http://gasprocessingnews.com/news/fsru-ships-in-high-demand-as-buyers-seek-quicker-route-to-lng.aspx

Engro terminal has built a jetty and costs $130-million because FSRU is being rented. Where is the Rs 200-billion scam here?

I don’t know Mr.Abdur Rahman but the gentleman like Rauf Klasra has no knowledge of the LNG market or terminal costs.

Additionally, it's also a lie that Pakistan has not been trying to discover oil & gas. The discoveries were small because that is what was there, not the fault of the government or the oil companies, or shows a lack of effort.

Regarding biogas, you could only supply some villages but then you would simply replace the ‘Thapis’ / dried cow dung used as fuel for cooking in the remote village. Besides according to Omar Ayub, Pakistan’s gas demand was 7.5-billion cft whereas production was only 3.5-billion cft. It is impossible to generate enough biogas to resolve even a small percentage of Pakistan's gas shortage.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/country-fast-losing-natural-gas-reserves-says-omar-ayub/

I have no connection with Mr Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, you can hang him and all his cronies for all I care but first convict him in a court of law. I am simply sick of unprincipled bloggers and ignorant journalists making exaggerated claims without any real justification and I would not comment on this subject anymore.

 

[farok84]

Pakistan had purchased 234% Expensive LNG from Qatar. Lng Terminal cost was 6 Billion Rupees, but it was enhanced to Rs 13 Bn.

Hi,

The guy raised some good points, specially regarding lack of exploration contracts but he did injustice by comparing spot to term contracts, and spoiled it for me, maybe it was inadvertent (also Qatar contract term is 2016 - 2031). Apart from that, he asked some valid questions regarding a) take or pay clause, b) lack of storage and ragasification facilities. I will add volumes sought and cargo flexibility to that list too. There are ample shortcomings in all LNG contracts signed during PMLN term, whether it is for imported LNG or regasification and storage facility or in our case lack of it, regardless it was due to their corrupt intent, incompetency or lack of planning and vision, we are stuck with them. PTI needs to get out of this blame game mindset and stop media trials, and start actual trials. They have been in government for 2 and half years, blaming and tweeting about it, not gonna solve or change anything.

IMO, it is futile to discuss benefits of spot over long term (there aren't many) - the comparison is flawed in too many ways. Spot is volatile, and depends on too many factors, just the last month unplanned shutdown of QGT4 up-ticked it, no economy can survive solely on it. PMLN was not wrong in inking long term contracts, term contracts offer security for importer's economy which no spot can ever offer. They were wrong in the way they negotiated and inked those contracts. One can also argue about opting for LNG all together and lack of exploration contracts but these flashy titles of 230% lower price shows naivety and lack of understanding of market, which surprisingly PTI officials have propagated themselves, which takes away all the seriousness out of discussion.

PMLN signed 2 long and 1 short term import contracts.

1. QatarGas II (ExxonMobil operated and not just Qatar) - (13.37% of brent, 2.25 million tonnes/ year or 3 cargoes/ month for 1st year from 2016 Q1 till 2017 Q1, and 3.75million tonnes/ year or 5 cargoes/ month, from 2017 Q2-2031)
2. ENI (ENI operated Indonesian field) - (1cargo/ month for 15 years, total 180 cargoes, Price: 11.6247% for the first two years (2017 through 2019 - 24 cargoes), 11.95% for the following two years (2019 through 2021 - 24 cargoes), then 12.14% for the remaining 11 years (2021 till 2032, 132 cargoes) , Contract Term: 2017-2032)
The wrong doings in above are self explanatory.
3. Gunvor Singapore (Gunvor operated Indonesian field) (1 cargo/ month for 5 years term for 11.6247% of brent, total cargoes 60 - Contract term 2017-2022)

All these contracts are on 'take or pay' basis.

I haven't read much on Pakistan's Shale prospect, but there was a feasibility report some years ago that US funded, shale requires investments , the way things are going, government can't commit to it, so it will be an expensive affair involving international players and foreign money (if we can find any willing to invest, in first place). No international operator, whether American (Exxon) or Chinese (CNPC) will agree to invest in Pakistan without a contract that heavily favors them. And then there will be fracking issue, all this will require careful planning. PMLN miserably failed in that section, I am not too hopeful about PTI too.

BioGas reminds me of Mr. Modi. He too floated that idea.

When prices were as low as >6 percent to 8 percent of Brent crude oil prices becuase of COVID, Pakistan could have easily clinch a deal of a long term contract for under 9 percent of Brent crude oil prices.

Hi,
How many long term contracts have been signed by any operator globally during Covid crisis? Can you kindly list some for comparison?

 

[The Accountant]

I first heard Rauf Klasra making these allegations on a TV program I think sometimes in September or October 2019 on Dunya News Channel. I immediately sent an email to Mr.Klasra via Dunya News asking him to tell me which company can make the LNG terminal is RS 6-billion which was equal to about $60-milion at that time. Mr. Clara never replied or even acknowledged my email.

There are two main allegations, the Qatar LNG Contract, and the Engro LNG terminal.

The Qatar LNG contract price:

I have already discussed this matter in detail in my post #25 of 14/2/20 and Honourable Ejaz007 also referred to it in his post 0f 16/2/20.

Here is an excerpt from the@Ejaz007 post.

“Pakistan saved $600m in Qatar LNG deal: Bloomberg

ISLAMABAD: A Bloomberg news report has confirmed what the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz government had claimed that the LNG supply deal with Qatar saved the national exchequer millions of dollars.

A report from the Pakistan State Oil presented two weeks ago to Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum, and reviewed by the US financial daily, details how the 2016 deal came together with Qatar, the world’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas.”

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/366554-pakistan-saved-600m-in-qatar-lng-deal-bloomberg

Excerpt from my post #24 dated 14/2/2020.

“According to market sources, the benchmark for spot Asian LNG prices, JKM, has fallen more than 40% from the beginning of 2019 to about $5.20/MMBtu by the end of the year due to a wave of new supply from Australia and the US, and slowing demand growth in China.

Australian LNG is manufactured from the Methane associated with Coal mines of Australia. However, this is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Hence in Sept 2019, Pakistan tender 'Spot' prices quoted ranged from 8.7% (for one cargo) to 10.3% of Brent ex-ship. One must also realize that Spot prices are not always cheaper as the same can go up as easily as come down and supply is not assured. No country will rely on spot cargo to meet its energy demand. As in the case of Refinery product planning, you rely on term contracts from 80% of your requirements, leaving 20% to buy on Spot.

The real reason for the drop in the LNG prices is the slowdown in the GDP growth of China & India from the 2017/2018 period. How many people could have predicted in 2018 that Indian economic growth will slide down to about 5% from the 8% of the last 5 years or that Coronavirus and Hong Kong turmoil will seriously impact the economic activity in China? Everyone has 20/20 Hindsight and it is always easy to criticize after the event.”

LNG Terminal Cost.

If anyone cares to examine the first feasibility where the Rs 6-billion figure was mentioned carefully; one would realize that this plan envisaged using the existing oil jetty at Port Qasim. This was not practicable; because every 2nd or 3rd day, the jetty is occupied by the tankers discharging imported diesel and gasoline. and its occupation by the LNG vessel would cause a fuel shortage in the country.

LNG needs regasification before it can be used and unless you build a regasification plant on land costing about $130-million, you need a permanent jetty where a Floating Storage & Regasification Unit (FSRU) can be berthed until all of it can be regasified and discharged which takes much longer than simply discharging a normal oil tanker. Hence a separate jetty was needed. The cost of a jetty alone is about $60-million.

Here is the cost breakdown of a normal LNG receiving terminal.

					all numbers in million US$
		Land-based regasification					Terminal using FSRU
							like the Engro		l
Unloading lines		100​					nil
							nil
Lang Tanks		85​
Process equipment		130​					250	​
onshore infra-structure	nil						​
							30
Land & fees		125​					20	​
Grand total		560​					360	​

The figures are mentioned under heading 3.1 CAPEX COMPARISON

From:
https://www.jtsi.wa.gov.au/docs/def...iving-terminals-and-fsru.pdf?sfvrsn=9266d1c_8

If you don’t have the money to buy an FRSU then you rent one like the Engro Terminal.

"They cost about $300 million to build, or half as much as an onshore import terminal, and are up and running as much as six times faster, sometimes within as little as a year, according to owners Hoegh LN G and Excelerate Energy.

Competition to supply FSRUs has cut costs of leasing such vessels by 20% to about $120,000/day from five years ago, said Keith Bainbridge, managing director of industry consultant CS LNG in London"

http://gasprocessingnews.com/news/fsru-ships-in-high-demand-as-buyers-seek-quicker-route-to-lng.aspx

Engro terminal has no jetty and costs $130-million because FSRU is being rented. Where is the Rs 200-billion scam here?

I don’t know Mr.Abdur Rahman but the gentleman like Rauf Klasra has no knowledge of the LNG market or terminal costs.

Additionally, it's also a lie that Pakistan has not been trying to discover oil & gas. The discoveries were small because that is what was there, not the fault of the government or the oil companies, or shows a lack of effort.

Regarding biogas, you could only supply some villages but then you would simply replace the ‘Thapis’ / dried cow dung used as fuel for cooking in the remote village. Besides according to Omar Ayub, Pakistan’s gas demand was 7.5-billion cft whereas production was only 3.5-billion cft. It is impossible to generate enough biogas to resolve even a small percentage of Pakistan's gas shortage.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/country-fast-losing-natural-gas-reserves-says-omar-ayub/

I have no connection with Mr Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, you can hang him and all his cronies for all I care but first convict him in a court of law. I am simply sick of unprincipled bloggers and ignorant journalists making exaggerated claims without any real justification and I would not comment on this subject anymore.

Sir i dont agree with the last line. We need guidance from learned members like you. Otherwise these 9 to 11 pm anchors will keep miss guiding us. So kindly keep on sharing on ground facts as it always a treat to read your posts.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Regulation has to be followed. They can not do that legally without confirmed purchases locally.

Who was to make an purchase requisition?? SNGPl and SSGPL, both are ferderal government entities, who to blame??

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Hi,

The guy raised some good points, specially regarding lack of exploration contracts but he did injustice by comparing spot to term contracts, and spoiled it for me, maybe it was inadvertent (also Qatar contract term is 2016 - 2031). Apart from that, he asked some valid questions regarding a) take or pay clause, b) lack of storage and ragasification facilities. I will add volumes sought and cargo flexibility to that list too. There are ample shortcomings in all LNG contracts signed during PMLN term, whether it is for imported LNG or regasification and storage facility or in our case lack of it, regardless it was due to their corrupt intent, incompetency or lack of planning and vision, we are stuck with them. PTI needs to get out of this blame game mindset and stop media trials, and start actual trials. They have been in government for 2 and half years, blaming and tweeting about it, not gonna solve or change anything.

IMO, it is futile to discuss benefits of spot over long term (there aren't many) - the comparison is flawed in too many ways. Spot is volatile, and depends on too many factors, just the last month unplanned shutdown of QGT4 up-ticked it, no economy can survive solely on it. PMLN was not wrong in inking long term contracts, term contracts offer security for importer's economy which no spot can ever offer. They were wrong in the way they negotiated and inked those contracts. One can also argue about opting for LNG all together and lack of exploration contracts but these flashy titles of 230% lower price shows naivety and lack of understanding of market, which surprisingly PTI officials have propagated themselves, which takes away all the seriousness out of discussion.

PMLN signed 2 long and 1 short term import contracts.

1. QatarGas II (ExxonMobil operated and not just Qatar) - (13.37% of brent, 2.25 million tonnes/ year or 3 cargoes/ month for 1st year from 2016 Q1 till 2017 Q1, and 3.75million tonnes/ year or 5 cargoes/ month, from 2017 Q2-2031)
2. ENI (ENI operated Indonesian field) - (1cargo/ month for 15 years, total 180 cargoes, Price: 11.6247% for the first two years (2017 through 2019 - 24 cargoes), 11.95% for the following two years (2019 through 2021 - 24 cargoes), then 12.14% for the remaining 11 years (2021 till 2032, 132 cargoes) , Contract Term: 2017-2032)
The wrong doings in above are self explanatory.
3. Gunvor Singapore (Gunvor operated Indonesian field) (1 cargo/ month for 5 years term for 11.6247% of brent, total cargoes 60 - Contract term 2017-2022)

All these contracts are on 'take or pay' basis.

I haven't read much on Pakistan's Shale prospect, but there was a feasibility report some years ago that US funded, shale requires investments , the way things are going, government can't commit to it, so it will be an expensive affair involving international players and foreign money (if we can find any willing to invest, in first place). No international operator, whether American (Exxon) or Chinese (CNPC) will agree to invest in Pakistan without a contract that heavily favors them. And then there will be fracking issue, all this will require careful planning. PMLN miserably failed in that section, I am not too hopeful about PTI too.

BioGas reminds me of Mr. Modi. He too floated that idea.



Hi,
How many long term contracts have been signed by any operator globally during Covid crisis? Can you kindly list some for comparison?

There were 14 contracts in first half of 2019 but in 2020 there were 24 contracts signed in first half of 2020. Some of the buyers renegotiated their tenders and increased volumes and contact period even one deal was done on fix price and six others were not connected to Brent, so LNG suppliers were ready to innovative in contract pricing benchmarks.

LNG contract volumes see sharp rise

Covid disruptions prove no barrier to major year-on-year jump in H1 2020

www.petroleum-economist.com

 

[Patriot forever]

Who was to make an purchase requisition?? SNGPl and SSGPL, both are ferderal government entities, who to blame??

Distributor and end consumers are different. There is now a push for end consumers to directly import LNG cargoes by using idle terminal capacity. The terminal operators are resisting as they are paid on a daily basis irrespective of usage, the more idle the terminal the greater they earn. (Again extremely mismanaged contracts, kickbacks in signing those contracts should be investigated).
The same thing with the IPP contracts, they want their plants to remain idle, government made payments worth 802 billion against capacity charges last year.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Distributor and end consumers are different. There is now a push for end consumers to directly import LNG cargoes by using idle terminal capacity. The terminal operators are resisting as they are paid on a daily basis irrespective of usage, the more idle the terminal the greater they earn. (Again extremely mismanaged contracts, kickbacks in signing those contracts should be investigated).

Which idle terminal capacity?? Pakistan need at-least two new terminals, if Pakistan has idle terminal capacity why it is negotiating for new terminals??

NAB has investigated contracts thoroughly and decided not to make a reference against these contracts.