Reddit Post: The SAA, strategy, tactics, and equipment. A brief Overview

[notorious_eagle]

Actually, it's quite true. Let's say, for the same of argument, you're right. SAA is not replenishing it's ranks fast enough, and I'm not just talking about the officers core. Every military needs infantry that's, let's be honest, nothing more than cannon fodder. SAA has been hard pressed to find recruits willing to fight and die for a cause that may not even work out.

They still can field about 150k troops which is pretty good for a country of Syria's size, pitched against rebels whom each can largely field 30-40k troops. The Regime areas still hold the highest number of population, and Syria has not yet declared mass conscription where every able bodied soldier has to serve. From whatever reports i have read, the Regime does not has a problem finding recruits but problems training/motivating them. You're forgetting another very important factor, and that is domestic security. The reason why SAA has been having manpower shortages, is because half the manpower has been diverted to Regime held areas to maintain domestic security. This is good, but reduces the number of men you need to fight the enemy on their territory.

I highly doubt that SAA will last more than a few more years. Even today, most of the fighting isn't even being done by SAA, it's mainly foreign mercenaries and Iranian backed militias, such as Hezbullah, which have filled SAA ranks to compensate for the lack of recruits.

I am not seeing it. SAA still is the only proper institution that is fighting the war compared to the Rebel factions that are largely unorganized groups. If history is something to go by with, an institution will always outlast these temporary phenomenon. There is still more people that live under Regime Held territory compared to the Rebels, thus SAA still has a larger pool to draw troops from. Hezbollah is a different beast because they are as of now the most potent infantry troops in Syria, they are crack troops that SAA uses to storm rebel positions before infantry moves in. Iranians are largely there because they fight more effectively, and help fill the ranks for troops of SAA and NDF that diverted for domestic security.

Unless Assad can will within the next 2 to 3 years, SAA is a doomed service. Even if he wins, the service may not recover for decades.

It does look like it, as the Rebels are slowly falling down like House of Cards. If the Regime takes Aleppo which it surely looks like it will, the morale and confidence of the Rebels will be shattered. SAA will always have more troops because simply put, they have more population living under their control.

 

[Hellfire]

1. When the Russians arrived in Latakia, i argued that it's not the Russians Planes but Russian Officers that will shift the tide in Assad's favour. SAA had the weapons and men, but what they lacked was a good professional meritorious Officer Core. This is a gap the Russians and to some extent the Iranians have been able to bridge very effectively. Truth be said, all the factions in the war are disorganized and will get clobbered in a fight against a Professional Army.

Honestly, I think you have summed it up perfectly. Irrespective of the fact that the opposing force is driven by 'anti-Assad' feeling or not, at the end of the day, a large, trained pool of soldiers, adequately armed and backed up with support weapons, if led by a highly professional officer cadre/leaders, will always prevail. There are no two ways about it. The adaptability which every soldier is drilled with, coupled to fine tuning and honing the skills of the officer cadre in leadership and evolution of tactics in real time scenario, enables, as you pointed out, the quantitative edge required to prevail in the longer term. What we are seeing is a phenomenal quantity of motivated men (read Hezbollah and Iranian regular/irregulars) led by SAA-Iranian-Hizbollah officers/leaders (being fine tuned and guided probably by Russians) fighting a cohesive battle against the various factions which are at cross purposes to each other. A sure recipe for failure for those opposing the regime.

But than again, i was mocked as to how the Russians don't know how to fight and how they were defeated in Chechnya bla bla bla. What our friends fail to realize is that the Russian Army of today is not the Russian Army of the 1990's. The Army we have seen in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria is simply top notch.

The army of Chechnya in 90s was a ragtag army coming to grips with a broken officer cadre, poorly maintained weapons and equipment and poorly supportive economy, which simply had no will to fight there. The Second Chechnya war had already reversed the image to a certain extent, but it was only in Georgia, wherein the Russian army started regaining its reputation and with the relative difficulty of their operations against a US advised and armed Georgia, there has been a decisive transformation in the Russian armed forces. History is a witness that Russia has always learnt its lessons the hard way (somehow here I thin they have learnt from us in the subcontinent). But at the same time, those have misread and miscalculated the Russian bear, have always had to pay the cost.

 

[Schutz]

I still cant see an end to this regardless of recent advances, they are tiny advances in small areas and by the time they take an area, the rebels/isis etc will have another few thousand recruits further inland, need a blitzkrieg.

Honestly, I think you have summed it up perfectly. Irrespective of the fact that the opposing force is driven by 'anti-Assad' feeling or not, at the end of the day, a large, trained pool of soldiers, adequately armed and backed up with support weapons, if led by a highly professional officer cadre/leaders, will always prevail. There are no two ways about it. The adaptability which every soldier is drilled with, coupled to fine tuning and honing the skills of the officer cadre in leadership and evolution of tactics in real time scenario, enables, as you pointed out, the quantitative edge required to prevail in the longer term. What we are seeing is a phenomenal quantity of motivated men (read Hezbollah and Iranian regular/irregulars) led by SAA-Iranian-Hizbollah officers/leaders (being fine tuned and guided probably by Russians) fighting a cohesive battle against the various factions which are at cross purposes to each other. A sure recipe for failure for those opposing the regime.



The army of Chechnya in 90s was a ragtag army coming to grips with a broken officer cadre, poorly maintained weapons and equipment and poorly supportive economy, which simply had no will to fight there. The Second Chechnya war had already reversed the image to a certain extent, but it was only in Georgia, wherein the Russian army started regaining its reputation and with the relative difficulty of their operations against a US advised and armed Georgia, there has been a decisive transformation in the Russian armed forces. History is a witness that Russia has always learnt its lessons the hard way (somehow here I thin they have learnt from us in the subcontinent). But at the same time, those have misread and miscalculated the Russian bear, have always had to pay the cost.

I dont think attacking and taking land from an extremely under trained and under equipped Georgia "transforms" the Russian army, not when they attack them with missiles, aircraft etc and still lost HALF as many troops as the fucking Georgian army, they lost more in that tiny little war that the Americans lost in Iraq in the whole of 2010. Your bias blinds you with stupidity.

 

[Hellfire]

Time will prove one of us right. If in 3 months, the Syrian people are still fighting against Bashar Barrel-bomber will you be prepared to agree that I was right?

Sorry to butt in ... but that rationale will not hold. Dissatisfied will exist and fuelling of strife will continue. One has to accept that the majority of Assad's army is made up of Sunnis - a fact that no one seems to highlight, instead choosing to portray his alleged atrocities against Sunnis. It has been ISIS, which in fact, has time and again proven its designs of ethnically cleaning the country of non Sunnis, as has been well documented in Iraq. Any action that weakens the SAA, which is the army of the legally recognized government still, is an act which strengthens the ISIS' position and war fighting capability on ground. If Saudi Arabia and Turkey openly state that Assad is not a future of Syria, they just need to realize that for Russia and Iran too, there is no Assad in future, but it will not be at the cost of a sectarian conflict prone country where the Russians have a major stake. However, what we see, is a deliberate attempt to undermine the organization, which is composed of Sunnis (in majority), Shias, Christians etc etc, the only organization which should and could have been tapped in order to stabilize the nation and then force out Assad if that was the wish of the people.

I dont think attacking and taking land from an extremely under trained and under equipped Georgia "transforms" the Russian army, not when they attack them with missiles, aircraft etc and still lost HALF as many troops as the fucking Georgian army, they lost more in that tiny little war that the Americans lost in Iraq in the whole of 2010. Your bias blinds you with stupidity.

1. First of all maintain the civility, if you are incapable of the same, do indicate forthwith the futility of indulging in a discourse with you in a civil manner.

2. Read the whole post of mine in the context of evolution of Russian army in post Cold War scenario in response to the post of @notorious_eagle and do not presume to sound intelligent dissecting it and quoting it out of context while raising aspersions on a person's intellectual capability, showcasing your own intellectual bankruptcy and lack of understanding of military affairs and history in the process.

Or maybe there is just the question of an Impulse Control Disorder ... and you really cant help it. In that case, my apologies.

Thanks

 

[notorious_eagle]

U already 20th time repeat that you were mocked. Let me remind you what exactly happened.

Well Sir, you did indeed mock me and if my memory serves me right claimed that Russian intervention will not make any difference on the battlefield. But to sum it, time is a great equalizer for all of us.

You claimed that Russian officers will be assigned to small SAA units on battlefield and lead them to the battle. I said that that will not happen. Thats about it.

Indeed i was wrong, but at a Strategic Level Russian Officers are advising the SAA. In important battles, they are deployed on a Battalion Level as seen in videos from Aleppo, in fact one was killed too. Its only because of the Russians that Iran Iraq and Syria have setup a Joint Command Unit. The others simply did not have the competency to think like this.

And I was right. What going on now is Iraqi and Afghan sectarian mercenaries led by IRGC officers. Virtually every day IRGC officer is dying leading his mercenaries. No any Russian officers leading troops to battle.

True, but their manoeuvres and tactics have Russian written all over them.

As for "great strategy" in Aleppo. Let me remind you, that one year ago Assadists made exactly same offensive there. Rebels were caught by surprise and Assadists captured several villages including Bashkoy, Rityan, Hardatnin in hours, forward Shiite troops even reached Nubl and Zahra. Problem was that the bulk of the attacking force then were poor drafted Sunnis. And once rebels recovered and started fighting back these poor drafted kids just started flee and surrender.

Now Assadists made same exactly attack as 1 year ago, but this time all troops were Shia + large number of Hezbollah paving road.

I hope I cleared issue once and for all and u will stop repeating how u were mocked.

But the bulk of the manpower is still SAA, Hezbollah and IRGC are being used as crack troops and not supporting infantry. SAA was largely routed because of their poor tactics and strategy in the Past. As usual, they charged ahead at the rebels head on creating a massive meat grinder and loosing hundreds of men. This time with Russian Advice, they took the smart way and encircled the rebels in Aleppo.

P.S. And if you think that Assadist tactics magically greatly improved, u can check how they were slaughtered just recently in Ghouta and South Aleppo. These are same exactly Assadists, just with much much more loyal troops and more firepower.

Indeed, that was an absolute meat slaughter and that commander should be hanged for his incompetence. It will take years for the SAA to became a truly professional army but you would be a fool to think they haven't improved. One only needs to look at the battlefield and see how far they have come with their tactics.

SAA has changed the way they fight. You can see videos of how troops are working with CAS before storming areas. Their artillery has became more effective and being used in sync with infantry, unlike in the Past where they would estimate and shoot blind at the enemy. I am seeing their tanks shoot and scoot, working in sync with infantry instead of charging alone in the middle of town. This didn't magically pop out of nowhere within less than 6 months, its Russian Advisers and Special Forces at play here.

PPS. If you think that Assadists were total losers and idiots before October 2015 u should check how they captured a large Safira town (nearly 90 K) in few days of October 2013. It was perfectly planned and executed operation.

Before the Russians intervened, SAA was on the verge of disintegration. They had lost Shingur and Idlib, and Latakia was being threatened. I wouldn't call that exactly winning. And look where are they now since the Russians intervened. You can try all you want to take the credit away from the Russians, but bottom line is Russian Advisors and Aerial Artillery has changed the course of this war. IRGC and Hezbollah had been present for many years, but its only the Russian intervention that has changed the course. SAA is on the verge of encircling Aleppo, cutting off their supply lines and charge to Idlib.

Honestly, I think you have summed it up perfectly. Irrespective of the fact that the opposing force is driven by 'anti-Assad' feeling or not, at the end of the day, a large, trained pool of soldiers, adequately armed and backed up with support weapons, if led by a highly professional officer cadre/leaders, will always prevail. There are no two ways about it. The adaptability which every soldier is drilled with, coupled to fine tuning and honing the skills of the officer cadre in leadership and evolution of tactics in real time scenario, enables, as you pointed out, the quantitative edge required to prevail in the longer term. What we are seeing is a phenomenal quantity of motivated men (read Hezbollah and Iranian regular/irregulars) led by SAA-Iranian-Hizbollah officers/leaders (being fine tuned and guided probably by Russians) fighting a cohesive battle against the various factions which are at cross purposes to each other. A sure recipe for failure for those opposing the regime.

Sir

What's your opinion on Hezbollah? Although few in number, i am most impressed by their capabilities. By far the most disciplined, organized and well equipped force on the battlefield. Their tactics, axis of advancement and discipline is something we only see from professional armies. It is indeed a very impressive feat considering Hezbollah draws its soldiers from such a small pool of population. I believe Hezbollah of today, is far deadlier than the force we saw in 2006.

Your opinion would be highly appreciated.

 

[Hellfire]

What's your opinion on Hezbollah? Although few in number, i am most impressed by their capabilities. By far the most disciplined, organized and well equipped force on the battlefield. Their tactics, axis of advancement and discipline is something we only see from professional armies. It is indeed a very impressive feat considering Hezbollah draws its soldiers from such a small pool of population. I believe Hezbollah of today, is far deadlier than the force we saw in 2006

LOL @notorious_eagle : you are the PDF Think Tank Consultant, you carry on. I said earlier also 'carry on', a traditional naval dismissal used by British Navy and inherited by Indian Navy (does Pakistani Navy also have it still?), but in your case, it was to give an analysis as you saw it unfolding (the Syrian Campaign with the changed dynamics) as it is a pleasure to read views of people who talk sense, irrespective of their own loyalties. This is a pure academician's delight! Am sure you shall agree that the amount of wisdom that one can find on this forum emanating from experienced people and professionals is worth the trouble to discern, as they say, the chaff from the grain.

Coming back to the bold portion, I think, and its my opinion only, am not very well conversant with Hezbollah per se, but from a POV of CI/CT ops and studying the Israeli experience, I think what we see is the maturation and evolution of this organization in the aftermath of their last confrontation with the Israelis. The conflict itself was a rare display of professionalism by the outfit.

That there has been an effective coordination across the two countries i.e. Iraq and Syria with Iran-Syria-Iraq-Hezbollah, is something that is a due credit of Russians as you have pointed out in your analysis not quoted by me. Working on this and building up from it, the significant step has been in terms of the rapid gains by SAA backed by Russia-Hezbollah-Iran towards and beyond Aleppo. At the same time, the coordinated air effort by Russia and (?) US in support of Kurds along the boundary with Turkey, and here it is purely speculative and unsubstantiated and lacking in any base, indicates a sort of understanding of Assad with Kurds (who, by themselves, have never been against him due to his tolerant and inclusive approach towards them; in fact, they had been accused of being supportive of him in the beginning of the conflict and indeed their actions on ground {or lack thereof} were indicative as such), and an indirect understanding between US - Russia on a need to pre-empt the escalation of conflict further by threatened or factual intervention by Turkey against Kurds in Northern Syria in tandem with Saudi Arabia, which has the potential to severely destabilize the area, with ramifications for even Europe. It also, IMO, significantly underscores a shift in US approach towards toeing the Russian line of need to have Assad remain in seat till stabilization of situation in Syria before a probable peaceful exit of Assad (which even Putin favors but at his terms).

 

[libertycall]

And I was right. What going on now is Iraqi and Afghan sectarian mercenaries led by IRGC officers. Virtually every day IRGC officer is dying leading his mercenaries. No any Russian officers leading troops to battle.

As for "great strategy" in Aleppo. Let me remind you, that one year ago Assadists made exactly same offensive there. Rebels were caught by surprise and Assadists captured several villages including Bashkoy, Rityan, Hardatnin in hours, forward Shiite troops even reached Nubl and Zahra. Problem was that the bulk of the attacking force then were poor drafted Sunnis. And once rebels recovered and started fighting back these poor drafted kids just started flee and surrender.

Now Assadists made same exactly attack as 1 year ago, but this time all troops were Shia + large number of Hezbollah paving road.

I hope I cleared issue once and for all and u will stop repeating how u were mocked.

P.S. And if you think that Assadist tactics magically greatly improved, u can check how they were slaughtered just recently in Ghouta and South Aleppo. These are same exactly Assadists, just with much much more loyal troops and more firepower.

PPS. If you think that Assadists were total losers and idiots before October 2015 u should check how they captured a large Safira town (nearly 90 K) in few days of October 2013. It was perfectly planned and executed operation.

The sectarians being used by the Ayatollahs are Shiite Hazaras/Mongols. I've not come across any mention of Sunni Pashtuns or Tajiks. From a Sunni perspective the presence of Mongols waging war against them in a place like Shaam has historical and religious references which many Shiite will not appreciate....

That's my point. All that's really changed is more fire power from Putin and the Ayatollahs. This is going to turn into a 'body-count' war. Putin can help the Ayatollahs and barrel-bomber kill lots of Syrians in inventive ways; but the end result won't be a victory, and he's not going to be able to put barrel-bomber back in charge again.

I dont think attacking and taking land from an extremely under trained and under equipped Georgia "transforms" the Russian army, not when they attack them with missiles, aircraft etc and still lost HALF as many troops as the fucking Georgian army, they lost more in that tiny little war that the Americans lost in Iraq in the whole of 2010. Your bias blinds you with stupidity.

What are the figures for the Russian losses?

Sorry to butt in ... but that rationale will not hold. Dissatisfied will exist and fuelling of strife will continue. One has to accept that the majority of Assad's army is made up of Sunnis - a fact that no one seems to highlight, instead choosing to portray his alleged atrocities against Sunnis. It has been ISIS, which in fact, has time and again proven its designs of ethnically cleaning the country of non Sunnis, as has been well documented in Iraq. Any action that weakens the SAA, which is the army of the legally recognized government still, is an act which strengthens the ISIS' position and war fighting capability on ground. If Saudi Arabia and Turkey openly state that Assad is not a future of Syria, they just need to realize that for Russia and Iran too, there is no Assad in future, but it will not be at the cost of a sectarian conflict prone country where the Russians have a major stake. However, what we see, is a deliberate attempt to undermine the organization, which is composed of Sunnis (in majority), Shias, Christians etc etc, the only organization which should and could have been tapped in order to stabilize the nation and then force out Assad if that was the wish of the people.

1. First of all maintain the civility, if you are incapable of the same, do indicate forthwith the futility of indulging in a discourse with you in a civil manner.

2. Read the whole post of mine in the context of evolution of Russian army in post Cold War scenario in response to the post of @notorious_eagle and do not presume to sound intelligent dissecting it and quoting it out of context while raising aspersions on a person's intellectual capability, showcasing your own intellectual bankruptcy and lack of understanding of military affairs and history in the process.

Or maybe there is just the question of an Impulse Control Disorder ... and you really cant help it. In that case, my apologies.

Thanks

You're doubting atrocities have been committed against Sunnis by Bashar barrel-bomber? Really? Please look up the structure of the former SAA. There's really no going back once the majority of the population has realized that the 'Arab nationalism' was just a cover for a small sectarian religious group being in charge. Neither will the senior Nusayri Shia leadership trust the Sunni junior officers, and neither can the Sunni junior officers accept that they have any future in an army commanded by a Nusayri Shia leadership.

The genie is out of the bottle and the owl of Minerva doesn't fly backwards.

So, the Ayatollahs want to help Russia protect its 'stake' in Syria at the expense of the majority of the Syrian population? And these are the people who claim they want to get rid of foreign powers interfering in middle-eastern affairs.

 

[500]

Well Sir, you did indeed mock me and if my memory serves me right claimed that Russian intervention will not make any difference on the battlefield. But to sum it, time is a great equalizer for all of us.

I claimed that putting Russian officers to poor inefficient SAA units won change anything and therefore it wont happen. Thats what actually happened. Why u say thats mocking I really dont understand. BTW Alawi officers studied in same academies as Russian. Who do u think Russian would be much better? Alawis are genetically inferior or what?

I will bring you another example. Before 1973 war Egypt kicked all Russian advisers, on the other hand Syria had thousands of them. Guess what happened in 1973 war? - Egypt succeed much more than Syria. Can you explain me that phenomenon?

Indeed i was wrong, but at a Strategic Level Russian Officers are advising the SAA. In important battles, they are deployed on a Battalion Level as seen in videos from Aleppo, in fact one was killed too. Its only because of the Russians that Iran Iraq and Syria have setup a Joint Command Unit. The others simply did not have the competency to think like this.

Battalion level? - I see many IRGC majors and colonels killed, not a single Russian.

True, but their manoeuvres and tactics have Russian written all over them.

I dont see any difference compare to rest of the war. In places where Assad had enough loyal troops he could perform well.

But the bulk of the manpower is still SAA, Hezbollah and IRGC are being used as crack troops and not supporting infantry. SAA was largely routed because of their poor tactics and strategy in the Past. As usual, they charged ahead at the rebels head on creating a massive meat grinder and loosing hundreds of men. This time with Russian Advice, they took the smart way and encircled the rebels in Aleppo.

As I noted current "encirclement" is 100% repeat of what happened 1 year ago. Except it was done by large number of Shiites mercenaries instead of poor drafted by force Sunni kids.

SAA has changed the way they fight. You can see videos of how troops are working with CAS before storming areas. Their artillery has became more effective and being used in sync with infantry, unlike in the Past where they would estimate and shoot blind at the enemy. I am seeing their tanks shoot and scoot, working in sync with infantry instead of charging alone in the middle of town. This didn't magically pop out of nowhere within less than 6 months, its Russian Advisers and Special Forces at play here.

I suggest u to check again how they captured 90 K city of Safira just in few days in 2013. This time they fought weeks to take much smaller Hader.

Before the Russians intervened, SAA was on the verge of disintegration.

Thats absolutely not true. SAA indeed retreated from small surrounded Idlib strip they held. They also retreated from Palmyra - isolated town in desert. But hats about it. Large summer offensive by rebels in Daraa miserably failed. In Latakia Assadists gained ground capturing Durin. Basically rebels had two relatively large villages in Latakia - Durin and Salma. And Salma was on verge of collapse in March 2015 and saved only because of rebel offensive in Idlib. Finally Hezbollah captured important Qalamoun region in 2015. And now Hezbollah was free to attack in other places of Syria.

What's your opinion on Hezbollah? Although few in number, i am most impressed by their capabilities. By far the most disciplined, organized and well equipped force on the battlefield.

Hezbollah no doubt is best force in Syria by a large margin. At first they quite recklessly attacked Quseir however and suffered heavy loses. But then they changed tactics. Started using heavy artillery, and encircling town before advance in. Hezbollah) + Iraqis totally changed a tide in Syria in spring 2013 saving Assad. Spring 2013 is great illustration how just several thousands of loyal trained troops can change a tide in Syria war.

It is indeed a very impressive feat considering Hezbollah draws its soldiers from such a small pool of population.

Hezbollah is about 10 K force out a pool of 1.5 million. So pool is not small at all compare to its size.

Thats deliberate asymmetric tactics of Hezbollah against Israel. This tactics has pros and cons: pro is that small force can better hide from air force attacks more professional and motivated. Con is that u cant defeat and even impose heavy damage to enemy with this tactics, only annoy.

I believe Hezbollah of today, is far deadlier than the force we saw in 2006.

Hezbollah today is no doubt much better armed than in 2006. They have over 100 heavy Fateh-110 ballistic rockets which can reach any place in Israel with decent accuracy and 600 kg warhead (in 2006 they had few ancient Zelzals). They have insane number of heavy Uragan, Fajar-5, M302 rockets (in 2006 they had few Fajar-5), they have insane number of Kornet ATGMs (they had them in 2006 but not in very big numbers), they have Yakhont supersonic anti ship missiles (in 2006 they had few C802 and C704). And so on.

As for their training. In Syria hey fight poorly armed rebels without air force, artillery and couple tanks. They have massive artillery and air cover. In Lebanon they will be the hunted ones, hiding in holes from air force and artillery. Thats very different style of war. Hezbollah lost many experienced commanders. And experience they gain in Syria is different from what they need against Israel.

Overall they still remain a small power without armor and air force that can only bug Israel but dont possess any vital threat. Only such army in region is Egyptian. In 1967 and 1973 wars Israel suffered more loses fighting Egypt in 1 day than in 33 days of 2006 fighting Hezbollah.

I am apologize if I sound harsh sometimes, I respect u, never insulted u and never mocked.

regards .

 

[SiCiSi]

Sir

What's your opinion on Hezbollah? Although few in number, i am most impressed by their capabilities. By far the most disciplined, organized and well equipped force on the battlefield. Their tactics, axis of advancement and discipline is something we only see from professional armies. It is indeed a very impressive feat considering Hezbollah draws its soldiers from such a small pool of population. I believe Hezbollah of today, is far deadlier than the force we saw in 2006.

Your opinion would be highly appreciated.

Our military liaisons love working with Hezbollah. They are by far the most professional military force in the middle east and a real threat to their enemies. Their gear is top notch and their soldiers are extremely well trained. I think their numbers are small as they only choose the best of the best.

Plus what we admire about them is that they have diversified economically and have a lot of income coming in from various sources and this money is accounted for tightly. They currently work with everything from the cartels in Mexico to the real estate market in London. It is a very impressive system which allows them to pay their soldiers well and get them the best gear possible. They also have a lot of connections in the black markets around the world including in eastern Europe.

Again, military wise our officers love dealing with them as they already have an advanced understanding of military tactics and their morale is high. Their soldiers do not desert their positions or panic like their opponents in syria.

Combined with our air support, Hezbollah is a force to be reckoned with. They are absolutely brutal in how they deal with their enemies and rarely take prisoners. They have been a major reason the collapse of the rebels lately.

Overall, they are very impressive force who are very fun to work with. I personally cant wait for Saudi troops to enter the theater so they can see first hand how dangerous Hezbollah really is

 

[HAIDER]

LOL @notorious_eagle : you are the PDF Think Tank Consultant, you carry on. I said earlier also 'carry on', a traditional naval dismissal used by British Navy and inherited by Indian Navy (does Pakistani Navy also have it still?), but in your case, it was to give an analysis as you saw it unfolding (the Syrian Campaign with the changed dynamics) as it is a pleasure to read views of people who talk sense, irrespective of their own loyalties. This is a pure academician's delight! Am sure you shall agree that the amount of wisdom that one can find on this forum emanating from experienced people and professionals is worth the trouble to discern, as they say, the chaff from the grain.

Coming back to the bold portion, I think, and its my opinion only, am not very well conversant with Hezbollah per se, but from a POV of CI/CT ops and studying the Israeli experience, I think what we see is the maturation and evolution of this organization in the aftermath of their last confrontation with the Israelis. The conflict itself was a rare display of professionalism by the outfit.

That there has been an effective coordination across the two countries i.e. Iraq and Syria with Iran-Syria-Iraq-Hezbollah, is something that is a due credit of Russians as you have pointed out in your analysis not quoted by me. Working on this and building up from it, the significant step has been in terms of the rapid gains by SAA backed by Russia-Hezbollah-Iran towards and beyond Aleppo. At the same time, the coordinated air effort by Russia and (?) US in support of Kurds along the boundary with Turkey, and here it is purely speculative and unsubstantiated and lacking in any base, indicates a sort of understanding of Assad with Kurds (who, by themselves, have never been against him due to his tolerant and inclusive approach towards them; in fact, they had been accused of being supportive of him in the beginning of the conflict and indeed their actions on ground {or lack thereof} were indicative as such), and an indirect understanding between US - Russia on a need to pre-empt the escalation of conflict further by threatened or factual intervention by Turkey against Kurds in Northern Syria in tandem with Saudi Arabia, which has the potential to severely destabilize the area, with ramifications for even Europe. It also, IMO, significantly underscores a shift in US approach towards toeing the Russian line of need to have Assad remain in seat till stabilization of situation in Syria before a probable peaceful exit of Assad (which even Putin favors but at his terms).

Coordination and discipline is the damage control in war zone. US and EU are unable to shape up favorable political scenario without Asad. Actually , why should NATO waste its resources to enter Syria. Iraq was reason, oil. Syria ? .

 

[Hellfire]

You're doubting atrocities have been committed against Sunnis by Bashar barrel-bomber? Really? Please look up the structure of the former SAA. There's really no going back once the majority of the population has realized that the 'Arab nationalism' was just a cover for a small sectarian religious group being in charge. Neither will the senior Nusayri Shia leadership trust the Sunni junior officers, and neither can the Sunni junior officers accept that they have any future in an army commanded by a Nusayri Shia leadership.

The genie is out of the bottle and the owl of Minerva doesn't fly backwards.

So, the Ayatollahs want to help Russia protect its 'stake' in Syria at the expense of the majority of the Syrian population? And these are the people who claim they want to get rid of foreign powers interfering in middle-eastern affairs.

Again a case of reading things in isolation and not in the context it has been written. There is seriously no advantage of repetitive posts every time someone decides to quote a particular line without joining it with the preceding and succeeding lines which also constitute the lines forming the paragraph giving the whole thing in a context.

The words you have highlighted from my earlier post are in isolation, my words also have, at the same time, the acceptance of the need for Bashar al Assad to be replaced, but only after strengthening the SAA, an institution that is best placed to challenge the ISIS and is also the best poised to force him out subsequent to establishment of the writ of Syrian state on the whole of the territory. Until and unless you subscribe to the US, Saudi Arabia's and Turkey's viewpoint about the need to replace Assad, irrespective of the prevalent situation thereby subscribing to the regime change being undertaken by a foreign power of a legally recognized government of a state with humungous costs in terms of human lives and economic/infrastructure damage for generations to the country. We have Iraq as a case in example wherein the regime change was achieved but at the same time, the armed forces of the nation wee disbanded, leading to a severe power and security vacuum and the rest, as is said, is history. It shall be an irony if the same was to be repeated now.

It is easiest thing to manipulate the sectarian divide to fuel strife within an established nation, but it is very difficult to manage the fallout. You can draw analogy with your own nation, the effects of international Shia-Sunni schism are slowly becoming evident in the social fabric itself, with targeted attacks on Shias occurring.

Reverting back, who can deny the role of the Sauds in spread of Wahabism and its fundamentalist outlook and imposition of strict nay draconian interpretation of Islam on people? And who can ignore the fact that the ideology is against Shias too, and is not merely limited to other religions? I think that is self explanatory until and unless you choose to ignore it.

Coordination and discipline is the damage control in war zone. US and EU are unable to shape up favorable political scenario without Asad. Actually , why should NATO waste its resources to enter Syria. Iraq was reason, oil. Syria ? .

Exactly, I agree. The only sensible option that emerges from the whole mess is the strengthening of SAA, establishment of the writ of the Syrian state on the whole of territory, and the eviction of Assad subsequently with Russian backing, which is somehow the case now. Other than Turkey and Saudi Arabia, no one is really keen in messing around in Syria, as contrary to expectation, the regime survived and is now having a new life thanks to Russian intervention.

Hezbollah no doubt is best force in Syria by a large margin. At first they quite recklessly attacked Quseir however and suffered heavy loses. But then they changed tactics. Started using heavy artillery, and encircling town before advance in. Hezbollah) + Iraqis totally changed a tide in Syria in spring 2013 saving Assad. Spring 2013 is great illustration how just several thousands of loyal trained troops can change a tide in Syria war.

As for their training. In Syria hey fight poorly armed rebels without air force, artillery and couple tanks. They have massive artillery and air cover. In Lebanon they will be the hunted ones, hiding in holes from air force and artillery. Thats very different style of war. Hezbollah lost many experienced commanders. And experience they gain in Syria is different from what they need against Israel.

Overall they still remain a small power without armor and air force that can only bug Israel but dont possess any vital threat. Only such army in region is Egyptian. In 1967 and 1973 wars Israel suffered more loses fighting Egypt in 1 day than in 33 days of 2006 fighting Hezbollah.

@500 There is no defining the advent of Hezbollah as a fighting force as something that can challenge the Israelis for the next generation or so (for that Israel will have to remain stagnant also ... lol) but as you have correctly illustrated, the advent of the organization in Syria has been intriguing. Your assessment is very well researched above, indeed.

 

[libertycall]

Again a case of reading things in isolation and not in the context it has been written. There is seriously no advantage of repetitive posts every time someone decides to quote a particular line without joining it with the preceding and succeeding lines which also constitute the lines forming the paragraph giving the whole thing in a context.

The words you have quoted from my earlier post, also have, at the same time, the acceptance of the need for Bashar al Assad to be replaced, but only after strengthening the SAA, an institution that is best placed to challenge the ISIS and is also the best poised to force him out subsequent to establishment of the writ of Syrian state on the whole of the territory. Until and unless you subscribe to the US, Saudi Arabia's and Turkey's viewpoint about the need to replace Assad, irrespective of the prevalent situation thereby subscribing to the regime change being undertaken by a foreign power of a legally recognized government of a state with humungous costs in terms of human lives and economic/infrastructure damage for generations to the country.

It is easiest thing to manipulate the sectarian divide to fuel strife within an established nation, but it is very difficult to manage the fallout. You can draw analogy with your own nation, the effects of international Shia-Sunni schism are slowly becoming evident.

Reverting back, who can deny the role of the Sauds in spread of [derogatory word to describe religious beliefs] and its fundamentalist outlook and imposition of strict nay draconian interpretation of Islam on people? And who can ignore the fact that the ideology is against Shias too, and is not merely limited to other religions? I think that is self explanatory until and unless you choose to ignore it.

I was puzzled by your use of the word 'alleged' to describe the atrocities and massacres carried out by the barrel-bomber. There was nothing in your previous words which indicated otherwise than that you believed you doubted that such atrocities had been carried out.

Sectarian divides as well as many others are the easiest to manipulate when there are some grounds for complaint by members of minorities; or in the case of Syria, by the majority. In some cases divides and separatist movements arise even in the absence of foreign funding and support e.g. India, which according to the last reports I read, has one of the largest number of separatist insurgencies in any country in the world. Of course you could blame them all on outside forces, but I doubt the ISI has a budget large enough to fund all those.

Actually the sectarian tit-for-tat between Saudi and Iran came into being at nearly the same period. One pushed a puritanical version of Sunni belief and the other committed what can only be described as a Holocaust of its Sunni majority population. The only reason Indians like yourself are aware of the Saudi movement and not that in Safavid Iran is because the Pakistani state has seen fit to use Sunnis to fight its wars against India. As for 'strict nay draconian'; Iran still stones people for adultery. So much for the neighing.

An excellent guide to the source of the Saudi-Iranian dispute

Islam Without Allah?: The Rise of Religious Externalism in Safavid Iran by Dr Colin Turner

"This ground-breaking and controversial work locates the antecedents of today's Islamic 'fundamentalism' in 16th and 17th century Iran and the forced conversion of the Sunnite population of Iran to the largely alien doctrines of Twelver Shi'ism; the concomitant extirpation of Sufism and philosophy; and the gradual rise of the 'faqih' or jurist."

http://www.amazon.com/Islam-Without-Allah-Religious-Externalism/dp/1138010677/

Also, in future please don't use derogatory religious terms for people. I've deleted the one in your above post and provided a helpful explanation in parenthesis. I've read Wendy Doniger's book on Hindu history and it wouldn't take much to create a few derogatory terms for Indians and Hindus. But I'm playing nice. In accordance with the rules of the forum. Unlike yourself.

 

[Hellfire]

1. Also, in future please don't use derogatory religious terms for people. I've deleted the one in your above post and provided a helpful explanation in parenthesis.

2. But I'm playing nice. In accordance with the rules of the forum. Unlike yourself.

1. If you will point out exactly my error, the amends will be made. Am unsure of the terms you are referring to, please do let me know in order to take the corrective steps at my end also.

2. Thanks for the forbearance, no intent to indulge in slugfest ... will be grateful if my error may be pointed out specifically in order to rectify the situation. Will reply to your post later .. work calls

and once again no offense, please do specify the remedial step and it shall be something for me to improve and take a note of.

Thanks once again