Perils to China-Pakistan's GCC economic corridor

[Bharat Muslim]

whether it is Monsanto seeds or geo-politics Indians are the new Guinea pigs of Americans...if you see..Americans no longer poke in S.Asia and SE.Asia anymore..they ride on the Indian back..for last two years the Indian share of bidding for american interests has consistently increased. This has two benefits for the Americans..they can peruse their own flexible FP as per need..and if the move back fires it is India to take all the grunt...

India's agent speaking.

How much or what did they pay you?

 

[Genghis khan1]

So, what do you think? What will be Iranian response to CPEC if Arabs also joining it? Didn't we consider linking Gwadar and Chabahar port?

Just pointing out the obvious. Considering Iranian sectarian and regional rivalry. Iranian goals don't align with Pakistan. Article in another thread pointed out that It will will US, Russia, India and Iran vs China, Pakistan and GCC Sunni states in the near future.

 

[Dawood Ibrahim]

That's pretty much already our message.

That's why these incidents keep happening in Quetta Mardan and pak Afghan border and suddenly some BLA leaders wakup from hibernation in caves

 

[wiseone2]

Pakistan will become the main economic corridor for GCC-China trade [Getty]
Date of publication: 2 September, 2016
​

On August 13, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi lambasted Pakistan for its human rights violations in "Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir and Balochistan," vowing that Islamabad will be answerable to the international community for the atrocities committed.

Addressing India's Independence Day ceremony two days later, he stated, "From the ramparts of the Red Fort, I want to express my gratitude to some people - the people of Balochistan, Gilgit, and Azad Kashmir - for the way they wholeheartedly thanked me."

The back-to-back digs at Pakistan were interpreted by Pakistan and China as an expression of India's frustration over the logistical corridor Beijing has been building to connect its less developed western region, to the Arabian Sea, as western route for its trade.

The war of words has only intensified between Islamabad and Delhi while influential Chinese think-tanks have warned Modi's India of repercussions if it engages in a proxy war in Southern Pakistan. Just a week prior to Modi's outburst, 70 Pakistanis lost their lives in two coordinated terror attacks in Quetta, provincial capital of Balochistan province. Though an outlawed faction of Taliban claimed the responsibility, the government blamed an external hand in the terror act.

Islamabad's foreign ministry spokesman Nafees Zakaria said, "Indian intelligence agencies have remained involved in subversive activities in Pakistan especially in Balochistan and Karachi. Public opinion, too, largely saw the Quetta carnage as an attempt to subvert the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Over the past three weeks, the Chinese logistical corridor has been at the heart of high politics. On the one hand, India conveyed its disapproval to China concerning its construction, and on the other, Delhi signed landmark defense and logistical agreements with the United States. Meanwhile, Islamabad hosted top Chinese experts in a two-day high-profile conference to deliberate on various aspects of the economic bridge.

For the Gulf region alone, the significance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor cannot be overstated​

China signed an assortment of infrastructure development agreements worth over $46 billion with Pakistan in 2015. The two strategic partners named the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is no Chinese Marshall Plan for Pakistan but a continuation of its grand strategy for the next century.

The economic superpower is not ready to take risks in the tense South China Sea with trade worth trillions of dollars. Pakistan, the first non-communist country to start aviation links in the 60s and then paving the way for US diplomatic czar Henry Kissinger's secret visit via its national airline, will help shorten the distance Chinese oil tankers and merchant ships have to travel to reach its key ports in South-East Asia by 10,000 kilometers.

In addition, the corridor will offer a much shorter route for trade between China and the GCC, Africa and Europe but also lessen risks involved in tense and crowded waters of Straits of Malacca region.

A geo-economic master-stroke

For the Gulf region alone, the significance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor cannot be overstated. China is currently the second largest trade partner of the GCC states. The GCC states are the largest source of hydrocarbons for China.

China has gradually become the world's largest energy consumer​

The signing of a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between China and the GCC will expedite its prospects of overtaking the European Union as the region's top trading country. Meanwhile, Beijing is pursuing individual FTAs with the six Arab Gulf nations.

Since 1993, when demand exceeded its domestic oil supply, China has gradually become the world's largest energy consumer. Today, China consumes more than 25 percent of the global output.

By 2020, China will become the largest importer of GCC goods worth $160 billion while exporting goods worth $135 billion; a good chunk of commerce will start taking place via Pakistan. This trade will completely shift to the economic corridor in Pakistan by 2025.


Challenges ahead

The ambitious geo-economic leap is, however, threatened by India's unprecedented ambition to compete with China in terms of economic might and strategic influence. Over recent decades, the United States has pushed for Pakistan to grant India the "Most Favoured Nation" status while giving it excess for transit trade to Afghanistan and other Central Asian states.

The South Asian Free Trade Agreement was eclipsed by Pakistan and India's dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, and clash of interests in Afghanistan. With Pakistan joining hands with China, India not only sees Beijing's naval footprint on Arabian seaport of Gwadar increase - enhancing Islamabad's significance for the Middle East, Europe and Africa - but Delhi also sees itself denied the much sought-after access to Afghanistan and Eurasia.

Delhi also sees itself denied the much sought-after access to Afghanistan and Eurasia​

While India not only maintains a secretive defense pact with Iran, it has also started to develop Tehran's Chabahar port for future exports to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Pakistan's Balochistan region where Gwadar port is situated, has remained under-developed despite being extremely rich in minerals, and many of these resources are yet to be exploited. The sparsely populated region has witnessed low-intensity insurgency led by self-exiled Baloch leaders.

Islamabad alleges that Delhi's consulates in Pakistan - bordering regions of Iran and Afghanistan - are key providers of finances and training. Modi's statement was widely welcomed by the insurgents who hoped that India would not use their cause to blackmail Pakistan but would provide concrete support.

Pakistan is not only carrying out various infrastructural and human development projects but also conducting surgical military operations against what it calls "foreign funded miscreants".

China will be partnering with Pakistan ever more closely in fighting its internal security threats​

Pakistan's border with Afghanistan and Iran, which has been nothing more than an imaginary line on the map, is being duly fenced, manned and equipped with a modern border management system. Pakistan is raising an exclusive security force to secure the logistical corridor from the southern coastal shores to the northern-most border with China.

After India's blunt remarks in support of Baloch militants and against the economic corridor, China will be partnering with Pakistan ever more closely in fighting its internal security threats.

The second serious threat to the economic corridor emanates from extremist militants, though this has now been largely isolated. The extensive military operation - Zarb-e-Azb - in the Afghanistan-bordering Waziristan region, is in its final stages. Terrorist incidents in the country have reduced to 90 percent across the country. Intelligence and security agencies are now going after the sleeper cells where extremists fleeing from military operations in Waziristan and Khyber regions might be hiding.

Since the Quetta carnage, Pakistan's National Action Plan (NAP) against terrorism has been under strict scrutiny. The military, instead of civilian bureaucracy, is now overseeing the implementation of the elaborate counter-terror strategy, which also addresses the challenges of indoctrination and financing.

While the military has largely implemented its part of the NAP, the civilian aspect of the strategy leaves much to be desired. Progress on integrating historically semi-autonomous tribal regions in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces has been marginal while capacity building of provincial police and other security agencies leave a lot to be desired. With a lack of political rights to alienated people and the presence of effective civilian law enforcing agencies, Taliban or other "miscreant" groups are able to resurge.

Though India cannot sustain its overt support for militancy in a sovereign country, Pakistan and China will have to pursue a policy of frantic diplomacy in order to keep the geo-economic corridor clear of controversies from the rivals.


Naveed Ahmad is a Doha-based investigative journalist and academic with special focus on diplomacy, security and energy issues. Follow him on Twitter: @naveed360

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2016/9/2/perils-to-china-pakistans-gcc-economic-corridor

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Doesn't the CPEC corridor go through Karakoram highway ??

Just pointing out the obvious. Considering Iranian sectarian and regional rivalry. Iranian goals don't align with Pakistan. Article in another thread pointed out that It will will US, Russia, India and Iran vs China, Pakistan and GCC Sunni states in the near future.

Iran does not like Uncle Sam for having naval bases in its backyard
By the same token Iran does not want a Chinese naval base 70 miles from its border

 

[war&peace]

....Fine..leave it....

India is an enemy of Pakistan and it is doing what can to damage Pakistan and it latter's responsibility to counter it and defend itself and the best defence is the offence so Pakistan should have launched counter offensive on India in terms of diplomatic effort but for that we need a FM..can you tell me what is the name of our FM?

 

[Hamza913]

That's why these incidents keep happening in Quetta Mardan and pak Afghan border and suddenly some BLA leaders wakup from hibernation in caves

The incidents from Afghanistan are pitiful, Afghanistan won't do anything too big because if they do we can level them and deport their refugees. The BLA are again, weak and pitiful and once CPEC is in full swing they will be killed off permanently or at least for another decade or so. Other enemies of Pakistan are not funded by India in the slightest, it's just counter-claims to India's claims about us terrorising them.

Anyway, militants in Kashmir that we do fund do more damage than the militants India funds in Baluchistan and the ANA. So don't worry, we are responding firmly.

 

[Viper0011.]

@Viper0011. @Kaptaan

Thank you for tagging me. The article is well balanced. I've said it many times before, the CPEC is here to stay, it will be built as both the nations have a resolve going on to do so. And India will eventually be forced to join in. Forced from her business population who'd force the government to change policies and join the CPEC so they can bring in dozens of billions more every year. IMO, India is acting silly and stupid. They should've welcome the project and join in, using just sheer common sense.

But the ghost called "wana be super power" is haunting India. They want to be what they don't have the ability to. You can buy 1000 of new advanced jets, but if you have over 600 million people living below poverty, well, you can't really be a super power. You also can't risk to be in a war with a nuke country as your economy that still needs to grow and help over 6000 million of your people, will just tank. So this is an example of that big muscular dude we see at the gym, you get to know him and find out behind those muslces and size, there is steroids, supplements and a few diseases so he's empty from the inside. But from the outside, he's maintaining a posture of a super man.

What's surprising to me is that Indians are smart people, how could they think by sponsoring terrorism and a few bob blasts, they can stop this project? They don't have a case on this at all, nor do they have a permanent seat in the UN either!! Not sure who's advising Modi on these things, or if Modi is taking advise from his master in BJP/RSS nationalists Hindu groups out there for Hindu supremacy. Because this whole attitude beats common sense!!

Most probably NS is discussing his escape strategy in case something happens in Pakistan i.e. coup etc so will KSA provide him shelter again...

Don't you think you are SO off topic here? And what does the CPEC has to do with NS? Obsession much?? Well, he's going to remain in power (and a massive increase in his vote size) in 2018 too. May be people like you and the one's you follow, should go do something for people, instead of just talking nonsense? That would be a miracle IMO!

 

[The Eagle]

In the long run, we will do whatever we have to, to secure our national interests. The days of fighting others war, are long gone and the nation is matured than before. CPEC is reality and indeed many nations are willing to take part as it is like connecting the one world with another hence all those interests and progress. Iran allowed India into Chahbahar and fired the shot even knowing all the consequences that would have so that all was calculated and in account, therefore, we are not complaining but focused about what we have to do for our growth and interests.

This is purely economical war so dirty politics, interference or any kind of proxy support would long last and success is near for us. CPEC is open for everyone that wants to join even we wouldn't mind India's participation as a friend. Iran & Afghanistan are not denied to take part as well though everyone's choice and none is forced. Securing our interests, is must and Pakistan would do necessary to do the needful done.

The groups are changing and reshaping as the new blocks are to be formed very soon. This CPEC alone is going to done much about our growth and our diplomatic relations with other countries, beside other factors as well.

 

[Moon]

Our Message should be loud and clear to all country don't intervening in our country or we will to the same to your country

I disagree with that. To an extent. There is mass discontent among people in India against the Center in Delhi.
Ask the poor of India how much has been spent to uplift their socioeconomic status.
Ask the farmers of India how much of their debt is cleared off. Every Indian government has neglected the socioeconomic problems of there country. The Naxals proved to be a thorn in India's flesh, for the very reason that they wanted a revolution to dislodge from the Center.

 

[Dawood Ibrahim]

I disagree with that. To an extent. There is mass discontent among people in India against the Center in Delhi.
Ask the poor of India how much has been spent to uplift their socioeconomic status.
Ask the farmers of India how much of their debt is cleared off. Every Indian government has neglected the socioeconomic problems of there country. The Naxals proved to be a thorn in India's flesh, for the very reason that they wanted a revolution to dislodge from the Center.

I guess if Afghans have let themselves been use by our enemies is ok for you to some extend because it's normal people who suffers from bomb blast not the big shorts.

India is an enemy of Pakistan and it is doing what can to damage Pakistan and it latter's responsibility to counter it and defend itself and the best defence is the offence so Pakistan should have launched counter offensive on India in terms of diplomatic effort but for that we need a FM..can you tell me what is the name of our FM?

Ghost Sharif

 

[Shotgunner51]

In the long run, we will do whatever we have to, to secure our national interests. The days of fighting others war, are long gone and the nation is matured than before. CPEC is reality and indeed many nations are willing to take part as it is like connecting the one world with another hence all those interests and progress. Iran allowed India into Chahbahar and fired the shot even knowing all the consequences that would have so that all was calculated and in account, therefore, we are not complaining but focused about what we have to do for our growth and interests.

This is purely economical war so dirty politics, interference or any kind of proxy support would long last and success is near for us. CPEC is open for everyone that wants to join even we wouldn't mind India's participation as a friend. Iran & Afghanistan are not denied to take part as well though everyone's choice and none is forced. Securing our interests, is must and Pakistan would do necessary to do the needful done.

The groups are changing and reshaping as the new blocks are to be formed very soon. This CPEC alone is going to done much about our growth and our diplomatic relations with other countries, beside other factors as well.

Fair analysis, concur with that, geo-economic interests will play heavier role, if not pivotal, in re-shaping inter-national politics.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Just pointing out the obvious. Considering Iranian sectarian and regional rivalry. Iranian goals don't align with Pakistan. Article in another thread pointed out that It will will US, Russia, India and Iran vs China, Pakistan and GCC Sunni states in the near future.

To be honest that article was written by Islamophobe. Some weird imagination it was....Anyway, Where is Turkey in all this saga?

Doesn't the CPEC corridor go through Karakoram highway ??

Yes, it is....I don't get it, what are you trying to imply?

India is an enemy of Pakistan and it is doing what can to damage Pakistan and it latter's responsibility to counter it and defend itself and the best defence is the offence so Pakistan should have launched counter offensive on India in terms of diplomatic effort but for that we need a FM..can you tell me what is the name of our FM?

Hmm.....Nawaz Sharif really sucks in foreign policy.......

 

[Moon]

I guess if Afghans have let themselves been use by our enemies is ok for you to some extend because it's normal people who suffers from bomb blast not the big shorts.




Ghost Sharif

Afghanistan can easily be brought to our side. But it takes time to so that, and cunning diplomacy.
So can Iran.
Trade is the answer to almost all the questions. Make them trust us.

 

[war&peace]

Hmm.....Nawaz Sharif really sucks in foreign policy.......

In which policy he does not suck?

 

[wiseone2]

To be honest that article was written by Islamophobe. Some weird imagination it was....Anyway, Where is Turkey in all this saga?



Yes, it is....I don't get it, what are you trying to imply?

How many months a year is the Karakoram highway shut down ??
What is the maximum altitude on that highway ??