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By Baqir Sajjad Syed
ISLAMABAD, March 5: The US-Pakistan cooperation looks to be unravelling because of differences over Afghanistan, with key figures from both sides getting involved in a blame game.
The situation appears set for tense diplomacy in days ahead.
Fresh problems in issuance of visas by both countries for diplomats and embassy staffers are just one indication of the underlying tensions and mistrust.
Weeks after the visa issue was resolved on the intervention of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, the caseload of applications by US diplomats and embassy personnel awaiting visas has again risen to about 125. The US embassy in return is delaying the visas of Pakistani diplomats posted in the US.
The issue was discussed at a meeting between Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir and US Deputy Chief of Mission Gerald Feierstein on Thursday.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Financial Times, US Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, who had recently dismissed apprehensions about Pakistan’s alleged role in undercutting the Afghan peace process as conspiracy theories, “was agnostic about whether Pakistan had decisively turned against the Afghan Taliban”.
He said he was unsure whether relations between the United States and Pakistan had turned a corner after the arrest of top Taliban commander Mullah Baradar.
His remarks followed media comments by Gen Stanley McChrystal, the commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan: “Baradar’s arrest could have been because of an internal feud in Taliban ranks.”
These public statements and doubts expressed by US officials in background interviews lend strength to a belief that the Americans are unhappy because the action has been limited to the group that had alienated itself from Taliban supremo Mullah Umar, while other groups like the Haqqani network remain unscathed.
PLEDGES: A senior Pakistani military commander accused the US of not fulfilling pledges. “There is a clear gap between what we had been promised and the subsequent US action,” he said.
After the Jan 28 London conference there appeared to be a sudden, but unexplained, surge in counter-terrorism cooperation between Islamabad and Washington. The first manifestation of the increased bonhomie came with the surprise arrest of Mullah Baradar.
This was followed by arrests of certain key Taliban commanders by Pakistani security forces and an offer by India to engage with Pakistan at the foreign secretaries’ level.
The deciding factor behind the developments are intriguing.
A source privy to the bargain, while disclosing its broader contours, said it hinged on recognition of each other’s ‘concerns and constraints’.
The two ‘Cs’ from Pakistan’s context related to India’s role in Afghanistan; Pakistan’s position in negotiations for Afghan reconciliation and reintegration process; and an end to maligning of Pakistan’s armed forces and intelligence agencies.
“Neither has been Pakistan’s role in reintegration process defined as yet nor has any serious effort been undertaken to curb India’s growing influence there, especially the activities of its intelligence outfit – RAW – that are prejudicial to Pakistani interests.”
Pakistan’s offer to train the Afghan National Army wasn’t endorsed by the US either. The training offer was based on the hope of neutralising Indian influence in Afghanistan’s security apparatus.
The emergence of cracks in the new-found US-Pakistan cooperation incidentally coincided with a heightening proxy war between Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. This only re-emphasised that the interests of the two countries remained at the core of any plan to stabilise Afghanistan.
The cooperation was too good to last in the first place, a senior diplomat observed. “It had its basis in President Obama’s brusque letter delivered by US National Security Adviser James Jones to President Zardari late last year. The message amounted to arm-twisting Pakistani agencies into cooperation.”
A security analyst further noted that Pakistani agencies took steps that they could afford and at the same time pinched the other side more.
Pakistan nabbed Mullah Baradar, who had distanced himself from Mullah Umar and was emerging as a negotiator with the Americans yearning for a settlement with the Taliban. Baradar’s other comrades were also in the net before long.
The move by Pakistan put the US in a quandary. The Americans could not criticise the arrests as they themselves had been clamouring for it since long. But at the same time they could do nothing but helplessly see their plans for landing a deal with the Taliban being derailed.
Nevertheless, Washington put on a happy face, while keeping its fingers crossed in anticipation of an across-the-board action against all Taliban groups based in Pakistan.
A senior official in Islamabad said Pakistan was now in a ‘win-win situation’. He said the step-by-step approach was in Pakistan’s interest and there was no need to move against all groups at the same time.
Pakistan’s strategists wanted the arrangement to progress on the basis of reciprocity, but slow progress by the US on its assurances halted the forward movement and eventually the two sides regressed into the mistrust that had been the hallmark of their relations over the past few years.
The timing of the new Pakistan-US tiff could have not been more inopportune. The two countries were preparing not only to resume their Strategic Dialogue by the end of the month, but also upgrade it to foreign ministers level.
Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is scheduled to visit Washington this month for discussions on the proposed strategic partnership.
The feeling in military circles, ahead of the high-level interaction, is quite obvious. They are more interested in the US addressing their concerns about Indian role in Afghanistan, future of ties with India, and providing them with an apt solution to the energy crisis – a reference to a probable nuclear energy deal on the pattern of India-US cooperation in this field.
“This could form the basis of a true and long-term relationship,” a general said. He further noted that the country was not much interested in military hardware, recalling that it had survived long years of American sanctions.
©2010 DAWN Media Group
ISLAMABAD, March 5: The US-Pakistan cooperation looks to be unravelling because of differences over Afghanistan, with key figures from both sides getting involved in a blame game.
The situation appears set for tense diplomacy in days ahead.
Fresh problems in issuance of visas by both countries for diplomats and embassy staffers are just one indication of the underlying tensions and mistrust.
Weeks after the visa issue was resolved on the intervention of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, the caseload of applications by US diplomats and embassy personnel awaiting visas has again risen to about 125. The US embassy in return is delaying the visas of Pakistani diplomats posted in the US.
The issue was discussed at a meeting between Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir and US Deputy Chief of Mission Gerald Feierstein on Thursday.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Financial Times, US Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, who had recently dismissed apprehensions about Pakistan’s alleged role in undercutting the Afghan peace process as conspiracy theories, “was agnostic about whether Pakistan had decisively turned against the Afghan Taliban”.
He said he was unsure whether relations between the United States and Pakistan had turned a corner after the arrest of top Taliban commander Mullah Baradar.
His remarks followed media comments by Gen Stanley McChrystal, the commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan: “Baradar’s arrest could have been because of an internal feud in Taliban ranks.”
These public statements and doubts expressed by US officials in background interviews lend strength to a belief that the Americans are unhappy because the action has been limited to the group that had alienated itself from Taliban supremo Mullah Umar, while other groups like the Haqqani network remain unscathed.
PLEDGES: A senior Pakistani military commander accused the US of not fulfilling pledges. “There is a clear gap between what we had been promised and the subsequent US action,” he said.
After the Jan 28 London conference there appeared to be a sudden, but unexplained, surge in counter-terrorism cooperation between Islamabad and Washington. The first manifestation of the increased bonhomie came with the surprise arrest of Mullah Baradar.
This was followed by arrests of certain key Taliban commanders by Pakistani security forces and an offer by India to engage with Pakistan at the foreign secretaries’ level.
The deciding factor behind the developments are intriguing.
A source privy to the bargain, while disclosing its broader contours, said it hinged on recognition of each other’s ‘concerns and constraints’.
The two ‘Cs’ from Pakistan’s context related to India’s role in Afghanistan; Pakistan’s position in negotiations for Afghan reconciliation and reintegration process; and an end to maligning of Pakistan’s armed forces and intelligence agencies.
“Neither has been Pakistan’s role in reintegration process defined as yet nor has any serious effort been undertaken to curb India’s growing influence there, especially the activities of its intelligence outfit – RAW – that are prejudicial to Pakistani interests.”
Pakistan’s offer to train the Afghan National Army wasn’t endorsed by the US either. The training offer was based on the hope of neutralising Indian influence in Afghanistan’s security apparatus.
The emergence of cracks in the new-found US-Pakistan cooperation incidentally coincided with a heightening proxy war between Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. This only re-emphasised that the interests of the two countries remained at the core of any plan to stabilise Afghanistan.
The cooperation was too good to last in the first place, a senior diplomat observed. “It had its basis in President Obama’s brusque letter delivered by US National Security Adviser James Jones to President Zardari late last year. The message amounted to arm-twisting Pakistani agencies into cooperation.”
A security analyst further noted that Pakistani agencies took steps that they could afford and at the same time pinched the other side more.
Pakistan nabbed Mullah Baradar, who had distanced himself from Mullah Umar and was emerging as a negotiator with the Americans yearning for a settlement with the Taliban. Baradar’s other comrades were also in the net before long.
The move by Pakistan put the US in a quandary. The Americans could not criticise the arrests as they themselves had been clamouring for it since long. But at the same time they could do nothing but helplessly see their plans for landing a deal with the Taliban being derailed.
Nevertheless, Washington put on a happy face, while keeping its fingers crossed in anticipation of an across-the-board action against all Taliban groups based in Pakistan.
A senior official in Islamabad said Pakistan was now in a ‘win-win situation’. He said the step-by-step approach was in Pakistan’s interest and there was no need to move against all groups at the same time.
Pakistan’s strategists wanted the arrangement to progress on the basis of reciprocity, but slow progress by the US on its assurances halted the forward movement and eventually the two sides regressed into the mistrust that had been the hallmark of their relations over the past few years.
The timing of the new Pakistan-US tiff could have not been more inopportune. The two countries were preparing not only to resume their Strategic Dialogue by the end of the month, but also upgrade it to foreign ministers level.
Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is scheduled to visit Washington this month for discussions on the proposed strategic partnership.
The feeling in military circles, ahead of the high-level interaction, is quite obvious. They are more interested in the US addressing their concerns about Indian role in Afghanistan, future of ties with India, and providing them with an apt solution to the energy crisis – a reference to a probable nuclear energy deal on the pattern of India-US cooperation in this field.
“This could form the basis of a true and long-term relationship,” a general said. He further noted that the country was not much interested in military hardware, recalling that it had survived long years of American sanctions.
©2010 DAWN Media Group
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