Pakistan's Strategic Calculus ...

[Rig Vedic]

There has been a lot of heat on the Raymond Davis issue, but obviously the Davis incident is only a symptom ... it is an outcome of difficulties faced by US forces in Afghanistan due to Pakistan-based militants.

It is better to take a step back and discuss matters in a broader perspective. How is Pakistan's policy evolving with respect to six key nations USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, India and Iran.

How will tensions between the US and China affect Pakistan? Pakistan has been getting a lot of equipment from the US over the decades. But has Pakistan already chosen to go with China now? Is Pakistan prepared to continue facilitating US access to Central Asia?

Since it's clear that support in Kashmir for merger with Pakistan is low, how will Pakistan policy evolve with respect to the Kashmir issue. If Pakistan tries to promote independence, how will that affect Pakistan's position vis-a-vis Gilgit-Baltistan. Will it be possible for Pakistan to revive the Musharraf formula which had shown promise in resolving the J&K issue.

Is Pakistan prepared to let Afghanistan be fully independent (including friendly relations with India if Afghans so desire)?

To what extent is extremism in Pakistani society fueled by the need for proxy actors in Afghanistan and Kashmir?

It seems many of Pakistan's problems can be resolved relatively easily if it is prepared to take a more realistic and less ambitious view.

 

[third eye]

It seems many of Pakistan's problems can be resolved relatively easily if it is prepared to take a more realistic and less ambitious view.

...but when have men thought from their head ? The heart ( & wallet ) rules.

 

[President Camacho]

At first, Pakistan was a close ally of the US, in the absence of trustworthy powerful alliances, this was the best choice. Now, it seems with sour relations, Pakistan has chosen the next supposedly super-power to be its ally. What goes as expense of this alliance, only God knows. I won't comment on what the strategists in Pakistan are like, or what they think, but the general public certainly gets a little too emotional and confuses strategic alliance for die-hard friendship/brotherhood.

Few people tend to realize that every nation looks for its own interests, and complete dependence on any particular entity can be very harmful in the long run. The state of Pakistan has been committing the same mistake time and again, and apparently no one seems interested in independence from foreign forces, independence that may come only by focusing more on education and infrastructure.

 

[GOD OF WAR]

Seriously now, get over your 3rd rate propaganda stints, please!! ur whole post is such utter horse poop that I'm sure most wont even wanna comment on it!!

We ALL know what u really feel how things are going, so don't deny it, while propaganda is an invaluable tool of war, it needs to be applied conjugated with intelligence to make it effective. Thats a department where u guys are seriously lacking. Pakistan will continue to be a pain in ur behind, and sadly u can't really do much about it.

 

[DV RULES]

If SCO & SARC countries get success to kick out US influences from their doors then some positive can be hoped.

Afghanistan peace will not come in existence of US army, this peace problem should be solved by countries together around it.

For what US here and will be here not secret know. Now there must be create balance of power and it is need of time.

Musharaf formula was BS formula.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Now, it seems with sour relations, Pakistan has chosen the next supposedly super-power to be its ally. What goes as expense of this alliance, only God knows.

China isn't aiming to be a "superpower" though.

We don't want to establish military bases all over the world like the USA does, and we most certainly do not want to be the "world policeman", and spend our hard-earned money on fighting wars halfway across the planet. In terms of power projection, the only thing we need is the ability to defend ourselves and our resource lanes.

I don't think Pakistan is allying with us because we "might" become a superpower, China and Pakistan have been allies for decades before this idea even came up.

 

[Tshering22]

China isn't aiming to be a "superpower" though.

We don't want to establish military bases all over the world like the USA does, and we most certainly do not want to be the "world policeman", and spend our hard-earned money on fighting wars halfway across the planet. In terms of power projection, the only thing we need is the ability to defend ourselves and our resource lanes.

I don't think Pakistan is allying with us because we "might" become a superpower, China and Pakistan have been allies for decades before this idea even came up.

True, but the recent tilt that has come about especially since you lot started booming and all that, is something much deeper than what used to exist earlier. Pakistanis have shifted more and more from the USA camp to China camp and there are many signs that are visible for it. This is natural for a country that gets more help from one country than from another country. Hence the thread started. Chinese are providing more help to the Pakistanis in real terms especially when it comes to investment, mining, industries and even a reliable supplier for commercial and military products. With you developing everything in Pakistan, there is little room for someone to say that nothing special is going on these days, man.

 

[RazorMC]

True, but the recent tilt that has come about especially since you lot started booming and all that, is something much deeper than what used to exist earlier. Pakistanis have shifted more and more from the USA camp to China camp and there are many signs that are visible for it. This is natural for a country that gets more help from one country than from another country. Hence the thread started. Chinese are providing more help to the Pakistanis in real terms especially when it comes to investment, mining, industries and even a reliable supplier for commercial and military products. With you developing everything in Pakistan, there is little room for someone to say that nothing special is going on these days, man.

Pakistan-China relations are nothing new. No other country has such over-whelming support among the Pakistani population than China. Our friendship is not based on economic boom or anything, but more on our traditional ties.

Whether China becomes a superpower or not, only time will tell. But our ties with the Chinese people will remain strong no matter what.

 

[President Camacho]

China isn't aiming to be a "superpower" though.

We don't want to establish military bases all over the world like the USA does, and we most certainly do not want to be the "world policeman", and spend our hard-earned money on fighting wars halfway across the planet. In terms of power projection, the only thing we need is the ability to defend ourselves and our resource lanes.

I don't think Pakistan is allying with us because we "might" become a superpower, China and Pakistan have been allies for decades before this idea even came up.

No one becomes super power just by wanting to be one. And you cannot stop it either whether you want it whether you don't. Everyone wants to be a power to be strong enough to do some robust lobbying and have their way. There are hundreds of examples, but the best is when China and India both did at the WTO meetings.

About your being Pakistan's ally in last few decades, you shouldn't even talk about it. US too has been a very close (much closer and helpful than China) ally of Pakistan throughout last many decades (6, to be precise). During 1971 episode, it was the USA that tried its best to help Pakistan, and it was the same China that rejected USA's invitation to join in so as to help empower Pakistan's side. China took a neutral stance, with a little verbal condemnation.

However, at that time China was in much weaker position in comparison to today, and in these times, China surely has shown a lot of commitment toward Pakistan. But we should never forget, everything is there as long as mutual interests are served. And when we take into account Pakistan's trade deficit against China, and China's investment inside Pakistan in comparison to Pakistan's investment inside China, we can easily see what is going on.

And before you jump on the same oft repeated conclusion that I am jealous of seeing this or I am an enemy of Pakistan/China, then no I am neither. I am simply trying to realize the truth here, which many have failed to.

 

[RazorMC]

There has been a lot of heat on the Raymond Davis issue, but obviously the Davis incident is only a symptom ... it is an outcome of difficulties faced by US forces in Afghanistan due to Pakistan-based militants.

That is one excuse the US would like to use in order to hide their defeat. Who thinks of bringing tanks in a country filled with mountains?
If this is how a superpower plans, the what else did you expect?
Surely not a victory?

It is better to take a step back and discuss matters in a broader perspective. How is Pakistan's policy evolving with respect to six key nations USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, India and Iran.

We already have good relations with Saudi Arabia and excellent ties with China. Any effort to improve relations with Iran might face opposition from the US and some other countries. We have always tried to help Afghanistan. We're already in the process of sending their refugees back so they can live in the their country once again and not be tricked into joining terrorist groups. India is a neighbour and we look forward to good relations there as well.

How will tensions between the US and China affect Pakistan? Pakistan has been getting a lot of equipment from the US over the decades. But has Pakistan already chosen to go with China now? Is Pakistan prepared to continue facilitating US access to Central Asia?

Pakistan will stand by its friend, China, regardless of US-China tensions (although the US cannot afford tensions with China). We haven't really got that much equipment from the US seeing how much we needed military hardware long before September-11. It was only offered to us for our effort against terrorism and that too after long discussions.

Since it's clear that support in Kashmir for merger with Pakistan is low, how will Pakistan policy evolve with respect to the Kashmir issue. If Pakistan tries to promote independence, how will that affect Pakistan's position vis-a-vis Gilgit-Baltistan. Will it be possible for Pakistan to revive the Musharraf formula which had shown promise in resolving the J&K issue.

Which support are you talking about? The plebicite that supposed to be held or the local population? Remember the recent movement in Kashmir? You actually had to resort to military intervention. Our King Musharraf isn't really popular, nor are his ideas.

Is Pakistan prepared to let Afghanistan be fully independent (including friendly relations with India if Afghans so desire)?

Why not? I am fully supportive of Afghan-India relations as long as it does not become a security concern for us (insurgents anyone?)

To what extent is extremism in Pakistani society fueled by the need for proxy actors in Afghanistan and Kashmir?

There are no proxy actors, but there is some anti-Indian sentiment among the population about small things like the destruction of the Babri Masjid, persecution of Muslims, involvement in Baluchistan, India's bullying attitude towards Pakistan, involvement in SriLanka and the list is endless.
I really cannot figure out what these people are angry for?

 

[Rig Vedic]

OK, thanks for your reply.

That is one excuse the US would like to use in order to hide their defeat. Who thinks of bringing tanks in a country filled with mountains?
If this is how a superpower plans, the what else did you expect?
Surely not a victory?

The US has actually been doing quite well in Afghanistan lately, the Taliban are demoralized and want to reconcile. It is the Talib leadership that are captive in Pakistan that are the obstacle.

Further, it looks like the US is prepared for a long stay in Afghanistan.

We already have good relations with Saudi Arabia and excellent ties with China. Any effort to improve relations with Iran might face opposition from the US and some other countries. We have always tried to help Afghanistan. We're already in the process of sending their refugees back so they can live in the their country once again and not be tricked into joining terrorist groups. India is a neighbour and we look forward to good relations there as well.

There is nothing objectionable in what you have written. But unfortunately, your way of helping Afghans has been by supporting the Taliban. That is why Pakistan is deeply resented in Afghanistan. And please don't try to play the Pashtun card. The resentment against Pakistan amongst Pashtuns is just as high as amongst Tajiks or Hazaras.

Pakistan will stand by its friend, China, regardless of US-China tensions (although the US cannot afford tensions with China). We haven't really got that much equipment from the US seeing how much we needed military hardware long before September-11. It was only offered to us for our effort against terrorism and that too after long discussions.

There have been a few minor hiccups but overall the arms supply from the US has been very generous:

Since 9/11, the U.S. has showered $13.5 billion in military hardware on Islamabad, and it pledged another $2 billion last month. The Pentagon justifies this buildup in the name of combating terrorism. But the big-ticket items have all strengthened Pakistani air and naval capabilities needed for potential combat with India, not for counterinsurgency mountain warfare against the Taliban.

For example, post-2001 U.S. military aid has more than doubled Pakistan's fleet of nuclear-capable F-16 fighter jets, equipping them with state-of-the-art missiles and laser-guided bombs, and has tripled the number of its anti-submarine helicopters and anti-ship missiles. Before 2001, Pakistan had 200 TOW antitank missiles, crucial in plains warfare with India but of little use in mountain warfare against tribal jihadis. Now it has 5,250.

Pakistan divides U.S. and India - Los Angeles Times

Now you have to decide on the future of US-Pakistan relations and whether you will continue facilitating US access to Central Asia.

Which support are you talking about? The plebicite that supposed to be held or the local population? Remember the recent movement in Kashmir? You actually had to resort to military intervention. Our King Musharraf isn't really popular, nor are his ideas.

When separatists campaign for election boycott, they get no response. When separatists contest the election, they lose their deposit. Independent opinion polls show support for merger with Pakistan is at most 2%.

If you are asking for a plebiscite, that is not going to happen as a matter of principle. But consider how Pakistan bans independence-minded parties like JKLF from contesting the election there. Is Pakistan afraid of the voice of the people? In India, there are no such restrictions, but the separatists are afraid to contest the elections and be exposed.

Anyway, if Musharraf's plan was not popular, what do you think is the best way forward for Pakistan? What effects do you foresee on Gilgit-Baltistan? Here is some of the history of that area:

In May,1988, the Shias, who are in a majority in Gilgit, rose in revolt against the Sunni-dominated administration. Zia put an SSG group commanded by Gen. Musharraf in charge of suppressing the revolt. Gen. Musharraf transported a large number of Wahabi Pakhtoon tribesmen from the NWFP and Afghanistan, commanded by bin Laden, to Gilgit to teach the Shias a lesson. These tribesmen under bin Laden massacred hundreds of Shias. In its issue of May,1990, "Herald", the monthly journal of the "Dawn" group of publications of Karachi, wrote as follows: " In May 1988, low-intensity political rivalry and sectarian tension ignited into full-scale carnage as thousands of armed tribesmen from outside Gilgit district invaded Gilgit along the Karakoram Highway. Nobody stopped them. They destroyed crops and houses, lynched and burnt people to death in the villages around Gilgit town. The number of dead and injured was put in the hundreds. But numbers alone tell nothing of the savagery of the invading hordes and the chilling impact it has left on these peaceful valleys."

Why not? I am fully supportive of Afghan-India relations as long as it does not become a security concern for us (insurgents anyone?)

This is fine, as long as your concerns are well-founded. So far there has not been any evidence at all about Indian support for insurgency.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Pakistan-China relations are nothing new. No other country has such over-whelming support among the Pakistani population than China. Our friendship is not based on economic boom or anything, but more on our traditional ties.

Whether China becomes a superpower or not, only time will tell. But our ties with the Chinese people will remain strong no matter what.

Thanks buddy.

No one becomes super power just by wanting to be one. And you cannot stop it either whether you want it whether you don't. Everyone wants to be a power to be strong enough to do some robust lobbying and have their way. There are hundreds of examples, but the best is when China and India both did at the WTO meetings.

To be a superpower, a country must be able and willing to: "project power on a worldwide scale".

That seems completely unnecessary to me. Why should "China in 2030", care about projecting power to places like Nicuragua?

It's an enormous waste of money, and will earn you all sorts of enemies. Instead of wasting all that money on being a "global policeman", we could put it to good use back home.

 

[muse]

An excellent t thread crafted by Veda -- but it seems to me that it's rather narrowly construed -- the six nations are not in some sort of static position, they are all formulating positions that at once compete and cooperate with the others - for instance the US will continue to see an advantage to being in Afghanistan, until of course it perceives the cost as being prohibitive, the regime in Kabul is similarly not locked into a single position, so we might want to think in terms of possible maneuver or creating space to maneuver -- but super questions

 

[GUNS-N- ROSES]

Seriously now, get over your 3rd rate propaganda stints, please!! ur whole post is such utter horse poop that I'm sure most wont even wanna comment on it!!

We ALL know what u really feel how things are going, so don't deny it, while propaganda is an invaluable tool of war, it needs to be applied conjugated with intelligence to make it effective. Thats a department where u guys are seriously lacking. Pakistan will continue to be a pain in ur behind, and sadly u can't really do much about it.

yes pakistan is a pain not only for india but the whole world. i agree with u.

 

[Rig Vedic]

yes pakistan is a pain not only for india but the whole world. i agree with u.

Please let us use restrained and dispassionate language in this thread. If anybody is provocative, ignore that post.