Another gem from SELIG S. HARRISON.
We all know that he's famous for his 'early warning of foreign policy crises' but the guy's an AH:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/72275-selig-s-harrison-s-lying-bastard-2.html
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And as for his "Punjabi Army being resented by Pukthoon and Balochs" here's something i posted in the TT section:
This would give a great insight towards the recruiting practices of Pakistan Army and would help shut up some idiots!!
Changing Demographics of the Army's Officer Corps - Pakistan Conflict Monitor
Changing Demographics of the Army's Officer Corps
Army The Changing Pakistan Army Officer Corps [pdf], Atlantic Council's South Asia Center // Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University via the Human Security Gateway, 14 July 2010
EXCERPT: "The Pakistan army elicits many concerns about terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the coherence of the state. However, very little is actually known about this institution. This essay mobilizes unique data to address one important facet: the armys geographical recruitment base. We find that the Pakistan army has been successful at expanding the geographical recruitment base while some groups (namely those who are native to Sindh) remain highly under-represented. We also find that the officer corps is increasingly coming from urban areas. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these important shifts subject to the limitations of our data. [...] Unfortunately, there are few sources of empirical data about the Pakistan army despite these varied concerns about the army and its role in Pakistans security and that of the region. This essay, employing unique and difficult to obtain district-level officer recruitment data from 1971 to 2005, explores an important aspect of the institution: its geographical representativeness over time."
Read the full article
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/SAC_CPASS_TheChangingPakistanArmyOfficerCorps.pdf [pdf].
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Some excerpts from the PDF file:
......Geographic Distribution of New Officer Recruits Across Time
We next depict cartographically district market shares of officer recruitments for 1974,
1984, 1994 and 2005. We used 1974 as our first end point for the cartographic analysis
of recruitment shares due to the 1971 war, which saw the emergence of East Pakistan as
an independent Bangladesh. We wanted to permit adequate time to lapse to permit both
recruitment and records of recruitment to re-equilibrate after the conclusion of the 1971
war. These analyses are presented in Figures 2 through 5.
Figures 2 through 5 dramatically demonstrate that the Pakistan army has been successful in making the army more geographically representative.
As depicted in Figure 2, in 1974 the center of gravity for officer recruitment largely centered on key districts in the Punjab with a few in the NWFP.
By 1984 (see Figure 3), officer recruitment had expanded throughout the rest of Punjab, large parts of Sindh, NWFP, the Northern Areas and selected districts in Baluchistan. Changes between 1984 and 1994 were less dramatic but illustrate continued expansion of officer recruitment. Changes between 1984 and 1994 were less dramatic and illustrate some continuity as evidenced by comparing Figures 3 and 4.
By 2005, as shown in Figure 5, officer recruitment had expanded into many more districts in Baluchistan and indeed into most of the districts in the country. Those districts without any recruits were generally in Baluchistan. It must be recalled that each of these maps capture one snapshot for each years batch of officers, which does vary from year to year.
However, comparing the distribution of recruits between 1974 and 2005 demonstrates vividly that officers are now coming from most districts in the country.
One serious limitation of our data must be kept in mind: these are district level data not officer data.
One cannot assume that a recruit from Baluchistan is in fact ethnically Baluc. Nonetheless, a Punjabi, for example, who has lived and/or has been raised in Baluchistan is likely to have a very different worldview than one who has spent much or most of his life in the Punjab. Even though we cannot identify the ethnicity of the recruit, the expanded geographical reach of the Pakistan army suggests that its various efforts have born fruit at least with geographical variation.
A less granular analysis of officer recruitment is depicted in Figure 6, which shows the market share of officer recruits for the four provinces (Baluchistan, NWFP, Punjab, Sindh), the Federal Capital (Islamabad), Azad Kashmir, Northern Areas and FATA.
As demonstrated in Figure 6, the market share for the Punjab had declined dramatically from a high of over 80 percent in 1971 to a low of less than 40 percent in 2001.
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The crux (of the research)
.....Conclusions and Implications
In summary, analyses of these data show that new officers entering the Pakistan army to a significant degree resemble the geographic (as opposed to ethnic) population distribution of Pakistan writ large with a few notable exceptions. By 2005, Sindh remains underrepresented despite improvement while the Punjab and NWFP are over-represented to varying degrees, depending upon the year in question. However, Punjab is increasingly less dominant in annual officer intake. By 2005, most of the countrys districts have produced recruits in a marked change since the first year in our data series. Curiously, using officer intake for 1981 and 1998, the urbanization of these cohorts appears to be higher than the urbanization of Pakistan overall using census estimates.
It must be kept in mind that our data do not and cannot provide insights into the overall composition of the entire army because we only have data for yearly officer intake. We have no cohort information (e.g. how many attended the PMA long course or
other courses together or even how the officers broke out into the five courses) and we do not have officer-level data on their career paths. As such, we have no information about the relative rates of retaining persons from these various and often relatively new districts for officer production. While the army may be increasing recruits from these areas annually, the army may also be losing them to attrition. Such differential attritionif it existscould be due to individuals perceived or real discrimination in the army;
institutional barriers (e.g. bias in promotion); individuals discomfort with being posted far away from home; individuals poor preparedness intellectually or physically for the army; or discomfort with any other aspect of the army life style. Finally, we have data
about geographical origins not ethnic identity. While in many cases these will be isomorphous, one cannot make this assumption. Thus the above analyses pertain to geographic not ethniccharacteristics of the officer intake. Despite these empirical
caveats, these analyses do suggest that the army has made important strides in achieving its objective of becoming at least a more geographicallyif not ethnicallyrepresentative force.
The implications of this changing recruitment base over time may be very important, if uncertain, at this juncture. As the armya key provider of social advancement and other perquisites in Pakistanbecomes more accessible, the army could be a foundation of greater national cohesion rather than a source of ethnic tension.
However, as the army expands its recruitment base, it must also expand military infrastructure into new areas. This is particularly true for provinces that are not well served by roads and other transport infrastructure, such as Balochistan. (Note that the vast majority of military assets are concentrated in the Punjab.)
Such expansion of army infrastructure is likely necessary for several reasons. In poorly connected areas, potential recruits may be unwilling to undertake potentially costly long trips to be considered for recruitment. Individuals in such areas may also have limited access to education and may be unprepared for military service. This may make them even less willing to undertake arduous journeys if they expect that they will not be qualified. This concern remains even for those from Balochistan and Sindh if they are unaware of military policies to relax standards for them. In areas with poor military presence, individuals may have less interest in military service compared to those areas with significant military presence due the above-noted influencer effect.59) Pakistanis outside of the Punjab and NWFP have not always welcomed the introduction of cantonments and other military infrastructure. Baloch ethno-nationalist insurgents cite the expansion of military presence in Balochistan as concrete evidence of Punjabi colonization. This resentment persists even while some welcome the introduction of cantonments because they are accompanied by expanded access to utilities (e.g. gas connections, electrification, potable water, better roads, etc.); access to better schools; employment opportunities due to base activities and activities supporting such bases among other facilities and services. Conversely, some residents resent the fact that it takes the introduction of a military facility to bring such amenities to a community.
The expansion of the military into Balochistan exhibits the entire of range of such sentiments.60 The impact of expanded geographical recruitment base upon the armys ability to conduct internal security operations is less clear.
On the one hand, training persons from ethnic groups with longstanding grievances with the center may provide important military training to co-ethnics who rise against the state. On the other hand, their successful integration into the army creates opportunities for their near and extended families which in turn may diminish ethnic grievances and further integrate these ethnic groups into the Pakistani national project.
Expanded recruitment also distributes the cost of military action to new segments of Pakistani society. As these family members become more familiar with military operations, they may increasingly support the operation if they believe the operation to be just or addressing Pakistani national interests. However, as the costs of military action increases and as civilian and military casualties mount, support for such operations may diminish putting increased pressure both on the army and the civilian administration (assuming a civilian dispensation).61 This cluster of concerns is particularly timely given that the percentage of recruits from the NWFP has increased in recent years and it is in this area where the Pakistan army has been most engaged against Pakistans domestic 60 militants. Despite expanding public opinion polls, extant polling does not employ sample sizes that permit scientifically valid comparisons across provinces much less within provinces. At this juncture, it is impossible to tell how expanded recruitment from the NWFP, increased operational tempo in the same area and public support or lack thereof for these operations interplay.62
Perhaps the most important questions about the Pakistan army surround the posited Islamization of the Pakistan army, anti-Americanism, and politicization. As is well-known, Zia ul Haq sought to Islamize the Pakistan army during his tenure of army chief in the 1980s. However, scholars of the Pakistan army have remained dubious that there were deep impacts upon the institution.63 Similarly, the 1989 U.S. cutoff of military education to the Pakistan military under the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program has led to widespread fears that the Pakistan army harbors strong anti-U.S. sentiment. (This is likely to be the case although the reasons may in fact pre-date the 1990 cessation of military assistance and training.) And as is well known, the army has long been subject to politicization.
This politicization has been manifested in the politicized selection of the army chief and other army leadership; the armys role in manipulating and undermining political institutions and the judiciary, often using the states intelligences agencies; the armys historical and pervasive involvement in governing the country including introducing massive changes to the countrys constitution. These questions about the social, political and indeed religious commitments of the Pakistan army officer corps are no doubt at the core of international concerns about this institution.
Unfortunately, this current effort cannot address these questions squarely with these data alone for reasons noted throughout this essay. However, ongoing and future research may provide modestbut importantinsights into the army. Working with a
team of quantitative analysts, we are assembling a panel of district-level household economic survey data from 1991 to 2005. (1991 is the earliest year for such data). These additional data will allow us to further characterize the districts from which officers are recruited in terms of social liberalism, educational attainment, urbanicity, among other 62 house-hold and district-level socioeconomic and demographic variables that may explain variation in district-wise recruitment outcome.
However, even the results of this ongoing research are circumscribed by an ecological fallacy problem. That is, the best we can do is characterize more fully the districts from which officers come. We cannot assume that that any particular officer has a similar set of characteristics as the district in part because officer recruitment is not random; rather it is the product of both supply-side and demand-side considerations.
While our results narrowly advance our understanding of the Pakistan army, the changes that we have documented in officer recruitment are very important in terms of the social impacts of the armys role in the nation; the operational and political
constraints upon the army; and even the armys capabilities to deal with critical internal security challenges that are likely to deepen rather than recede in the policy-relevant future. As such these highly-caveated findings should be of interest to policy makers and analysts alike and may help them refocus inquiries about this important institution, even if this present and future analyses cannot answer these queries comprehensively.