Pakistan’s melting glaciers: Our climate change crisis will destabilise Asia’s rivers

[ghazi52]

Pakistan’s melting glaciers: Our climate change crisis will destabilise Asia’s rivers

February 10, 2019
By Rina Saeed Khan

The report revealed that at least a third of the glaciers in Asia’s towering mountains are doomed to melt due to climate change.

Pakistan is fortunate to be home to three great mountain ranges: the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush. In fact, on the drive up the Karakoram Highway from Islamabad to Gilgit, I often stop at a place near Jaglote town where these three ranges actually meet. One can see the grand vista from the road, which could easily be missed if not for a sign nearby which reads,

“The junction point of the three mightiest mountain ranges of the world.”

The Karakoram includes the K2, the world’s second-highest peak, and is the most heavily glaciated area on the planet apart from the polar regions. The massive glaciers of Baltoro and Biafo (both in Pakistan) that together stretch for hundreds of kilometres in the Karakoram can also be seen from the International Space Station.

Aerial shot of the Baltoro glacier. Photo: Walkabout Films

Due to its altitude and ruggedness, the Karakoram is much less inhabited than the Himalayas further east, and little research has been done on this range in comparison to the Alps or the Andes, according to all the researchers I have met over the years. However, this past week, a ground-breaking new study done by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has shed light on the climate change threats faced by the ranges that make up the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region.

The first assessment report of the HKH region, which includes high mountains in Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan, has taken years to prepare. Launched recently, it immediately created waves as the report revealed that at least a third of the glaciers in Asia’s towering mountains are doomed to melt due to climate change, with serious consequences for the approximately two billion people who live below and nearby.

The report states that even if global carbon emissions are cut and global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (as called for under the Paris Agreement), global warming will likely be at least 0.3 degree Celsius higher in the HKH, and at least 0.7 degree Celsius higher in the northwest Himalayas and the Karakoram.

The melting Hinarchi glacier in Bagrote. Photo: Rina Saeed

There has been a rising trend of extreme warm events in the HKH over the past five to six decades, alongside a falling trend of extreme cold events. Now, even if we somehow manage to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, 36% of the glaciers in the HKH ranges will be gone by 2100. If emissions are not cut, the loss is even higher – two thirds of the glaciers will be lost forever. In case it is still not clear: this will destabilise Asia’s rivers.

A diverse group of more than 350 leading researchers, practitioners and policy specialists working in the region have come together to develop this comprehensive assessment of the HKH. Other than climate change, the report also deals with biodiversity, air pollution, disaster and resilience, poverty, gender and migration.

The key findings offer alarming news for Pakistan, a state completely dependent on the Indus River, which acts as a glacier-fed lifeline for a country of over 200 million people.

The glacier strewn valley of Bagrote in Gilgit-Baltistan. Photo: Rina Saeed

This report also had me thinking about the Karakoram anomaly. Scientific studies done in this region (mostly using satellite technology) have shown that the glaciers in the Karakoram are more stable than the glaciers in the neighbouring Himalayas (in Nepal and Bhutan), which are rapidly losing mass due to warmer temperatures caused by climate change.

The consensus is that despite the overall loss in ice, no significant mass gains or losses have occurred in the Karakoram region in this early part of the 21st century. The Karakoram Anomaly was first observed by Canadian glaciologist Kenneth Hewitt in 2005. He had been conducting expeditions to the K2 Base Camp for several years to measure large glaciers like Baltoro, and told me several years ago,

“Nowhere in the upper Indus Basin do you have the collapse of glaciers like in the Alps. They are actually holding their own or growing.”

The picturesque Passu glacier in Hunza. Photo: Rina Saeed

So what does this latest ICIMOD report, which reduces scientific uncertainty on various mountain issues, have to say about the Karakoram in particular? Well, the chapter on climate change in the HKH reports,

“The HKH is experiencing increasing variability in western disturbances and a higher probability of snowfall in the Karakoram and western Himalaya, changes that will likely contribute to increases in glacier mass in those areas.”

It adds further that maximum winter snowfall is occurring over the Karakoram and that ‘western disturbances’ (winter weather systems coming from the Mediterranean region) are also significantly impacting the temperature patterns of the Himalayas, besides precipitation. The changes in the westerly disturbance are also believed to increase the mass of some glaciers in the Karakoram and western Himalaya, which is popularly known as the Karakoram Anomaly. Thus, even this latest report confirms that the Karakoram Anomaly continues to exist.

 

[ghazi52]

A glacier monitoring team heading to the Khordopin glacier. Photo: Karamat Ali

The report then goes on to note that glaciers in the region have thinned, retreated and lost mass across the HKH region since the 70s, except for parts of the Karakoram, eastern Pamir and western Kunlun.

“These trends are projected to continue, with possibly large consequences for the timing and magnitude of glacier melt runoff and glacier lake expansion.”

It is certain that smaller glaciers are melting in the mountains of Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan, and residents have also been victims to periodic glacial lake floods in recent years. The ones that are growing, however, are located in elevations higher and colder than many other glacier systems. According to Advisor to the Prime Minister on Climate Change Malik Amin Aslam,

“The large glaciers in the Karakoram Mountain Range, which falls mainly in Pakistan, are not behaving like the ones in the other ranges. The Karakoram Anomaly is a fact and some of our glaciers are growing, which may be a blessing for Pakistan. However, the rising temperatures in the region are an area of concern and we need more research on the Karakoram specifically. We also need to take measures to protect ourselves.”

A melting glacier near Naran. Photo: Walkabout Films


The Federal Ministry of Climate Change will be implementing a $37 million project to scale up glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk reduction in northern Pakistan this coming year. The International Green Climate Fund is giving us the money as a grant.

The existence of the Karakoram Anomaly might be good news for Pakistan, but Philippus Wester from ICIMOD, who spearheaded the report, suggests that while the impact of warming is indeed variable and some glaciers in Afghanistan and Pakistan are stable and a few are even gaining ice, they will nonetheless start to melt in time as the warming gets worse.

The melting glaciers will thus increase river flows around 2050, according to Wester, pushing up the risk of GLOFs. However, in the following decades, river flows will go into decline, affecting the Indus and central Asian rivers the most.

The growing Khordopin glacier in the remote Shimshal Valley. Photo: Karamat Ali

Pakistan’s glaciers provide a vital water source, acting as giant water tanks for us living below in the Indus Basin. However, due to insufficient on-site measurements, few high-elevation weather stations, rugged terrain and the remote location of our largest glaciers, we really don’t know for sure what the future has in store for us.

To really establish the consequence of glacial melt on the region’s local water supply, we need to move beyond satellite data and towards on-ground assessment. Pakistan thus needs more resources to investigate these massive glaciers in order to get a clearer idea of how changes in these vast rivers of ice will impact our already diminishing water supply in the years to come.

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Rina Saeed Khan

The author is an environmental journalist based in Islamabad. She most recently authored the book, "From Mountains to Mangroves: Protecting Pakistan's Natural Heritage" on her travels throughout Pakistan. She tweets @rinasaeed (twitter.com/rinasaeed)

 

[Path-Finder]

the northern area has been destroyed by culling trees. I was stunned when I visited Last year how trees have been systematically cut down and ofcourse that will reek havoc down the road for the environment. There needs to be federal law and protection of the areas. More trees need to be planted for the loss of so much being cut down.

 

[litman]

pak people are totally ignorant of global warming and they are cutting trees at an alarming rate. i visited kumrat valley last year which is probably the most untouched and most beautiful places in pak but still i could see many cut trees by the locals for construction purposes. the govt should step in . steps should be taken to provide alternate energy source to far flung mountainous areas. pine forests take century to grow so rapidly growing trees should be planted at altitudes where the climate is suitable for them so that pine and fir trees can be spared. people should be encouraged to cut and then plant new rapidly growing trees instead of pines so that the natural beauty of the area remains untouched. there should be a policy that who so ever cuts one tree should plant five new plants at least.
karakorum anomaly is a blessing but we should be ready for the consequences of global warming. new small and large dams should be constructed to store water so that even if the natural storage in form of glaciers is reduced we still be having sufficient storage facilities but all these things need vision, loyalty, will and sincerity and we seriously lack all these things .

 

[American Pakistani]

Both govt and people are responsible for this. Every house should plant at least half the number of trees than the population of the house.

Govt should do it on larger scale, like 10 billion tree campaign.

 

[koolio]

I wonder if GOP will take action to stop the timber mafia cutting down trees, everyone should forward a complaint in citizens portal.

 

[Jinn Baba]

The current PTI government seems to be the only one recently that even talks about climate change or planting trees.

Planting trees or reducing the cutting down of trees is something the Pak government can work on. But global climate change is totally out of their hands - as I doubt whether Pak even accounts for 1% of total pollution.

 

[ghazi52]

Why the Melting of the Hindu Kush and Himalayan Glaciers Matters
The entire region is headed for an immense climate crisis by 2100, scientists warn.

By Nishtha Chugh


In the last century, human migration in South Asia, the world’s most populous and most densely populated region, was largely caused by geopolitics, wars, socioeconomic constraints and environmental disasters. By the end of this century, however, climate change will have become the single biggest driver behind an unprecedented scale of migration and displacement across the Indian subcontinent, potentially with destabilizing effects. Already vulnerable to natural disasters, South Asia could be left grappling with millions of “climate refugees,” regional conflicts, and militarized contests over precious resources like food and water.

This grim forewarning is grounded in the latest report assessing the health of the Hindu Kush and Himalayan (HKH) glaciers amid rising global temperatures. The landmark research predicts the mountain chain stretching from Pakistan to Myanmar will lose two-thirds of its ice fields by 2100 if global greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically curbed. Even with collective international effort to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the glaciers will still have shrunk by 36 percent by the end of this century. The study, authored by 210 scientists from 22 countries over five years, warns that the loss of ice at this scale will have serious consequences for up to 2 billion people living across the region, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh.

These eight countries are deeply intertwined by the 3,500-kilometer Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain range and a complex web of ecosystems, weather patterns, rainfall, biodiversity and crucial natural resources. Often referred to as the third pole, the HKH glaciers have the largest ice cover outside the North and South poles, and are a critical source of water for 240 million people living in the mountain belt and its foothills. More importantly, these glaciers feed into 10 major river basins including the Mekong, Yangtze, Indus and Ganges, that support food, water and energy needs of another 1.9 billion people across South Asia.

Retreating HKH ice fields, the scientists warn, will radically alter the delicate balance between the region’s natural environment, human habitats, and food and energy security. With China and India among the worst global polluters, the region’s per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions already account for the one-sixth of the global average. There are now serious worries that unmitigated pollution from dirty fossil fuels like coal — currently the most common energy source in the region –will accelerate the thaw in the HKH glaciers in the next few decades.

Global warming is increasingly disrupting weather patterns and precipitation across the planet. In the HKH region, however, this will initially result in greater river flows by 2050-60 due to rapidly melting glaciers. Increase in water volumes will mean a higher risk of frequent floods, landslides, bursting of dams, soil erosion and crop failure. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in particular pose a serious threat to mountainous communities in Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, China and India. As water levels begin to decline subsequently, that pattern is predicted to reverse, bringing on harsh droughts, especially for downstream populations. Reduced inflows will also result in water stress and lower energy output from hydropower dams, with serious consequences for overall food and energy production in the region.

Coastal economies, on the other hand, are predicted to face a greater existential threat amid shrinking HKH icefields. The impact of rising sea level through salinity intrusion, fresh water contamination and repeated inundation is already evident in island nations and countries with large coastlines around the world.

But how this gradual and irreversible thaw in HKH glaciers will manifest in socioeconomic disruption and categorical human displacement should be a cause for grave concern for the governments in the region. Due to its geography, high levels of poverty and dense population centers, South Asia is recognized as one of three developing regions most vulnerable to the impact of global warming. In a report in March 2018, the World Bank said unmitigated climate change is likely to displace over 140 millions people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America by 2050 creating “a looming human crisis and threatening the development process.” By 2100, however, the number of climate refugees (a term yet to be legally defined) displaced as a consequence of environmental degradation in the HKH countries alone could be catastrophically high.

Pakistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh consistently rank among the 10 worst affected countries on the Global Climate Risk Index due to recurrent natural disasters like cyclones, flash floods, landslides, droughts and sea-water intrusion. Displacement and internal migration in these countries have been strongly linked to environmental degradation. Poor resource management, inadequate government planning and unstable political climate in Myanmar and Pakistan have also exacerbated the impact of climate change on their most vulnerable communities. Heat stress and drought are already negatively impacting wheat yields in Pakistan’s agrarian economy where more than 50 percent of the rural population are landless laborers. Climate-induced migration in the country in the foreseeable future is expected to grow manifold, according to a recent research. The above mentioned study predicts environmental degradation and loss of rural livelihoods would accelerate urban migration to 50 percent by 2030-35 and to 70 percent by 2100.

Yet to fully recover from political instability and humanitarian crises, Myanmar ranks only second out of 187 countries on the Climate Risk Index due to its exposure to extreme weather events like tropical storms. In 2008, Cyclone Nargis killed 140,000 and displaced 800,000 people in the country. In 2015, massive floods and related landslides affected 9 million people, aggravating Myanmar’s never-ending fight against climate change while pushing its developmental goals further away. Coastal erosion, frequent inundation and large-scale displacement in the future are likely to worsen conflict and political environment in the country, making unmitigated climate distress the greatest threat to Myanmar’s peace and stability in the decades ahead.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, is not only one of the poorest countries in the world, it also has the largest climate migrant population anywhere on the planet. Sitting astride the world’s largest delta system, the riverine country is barely above the sea level and frequently suffers salinity intrusion, fresh water contamination, crop failures and repeated inundation, destroying rural livelihoods. On average this causes the displacement of over 700,000 rural Bangladeshis every year. By 2050, scientists have warned, rising sea levels can swallow almost 20 percent of the country’s landmass leaving up to 20 million climate refugees in its wake.

In China, extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts are already being recognized as major drivers behind growing urban migration. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, natural disasters displaced nearly 6 million people in China during 2012.

The deteriorating environmental conditions, water stress and land erosion are increasingly affecting rural livelihoods, forcing people to seek economic opportunities in coastal cities such as Shanghai. Unfortunately, that particular major urban center is already creaking under pressure from incessant exposure to typhoons and flooding, further compounding the continuous cycles of internal displacement and worsening human conditions particularly for the new arrivals from the countryside. In the country’s northwest, climate-distressed provinces like Ningxia are at the heart of the world’s largest environmental migration project. Under the program over 1.14 million people from the drought-hit province have been relocated and resettled over the years, underlining the magnitude of challenge China faces in rehabilitating a growing number of what it calls “ecological migrants” in the future amid changing global climate.

What makes India, the third largest polluter after China and the United States and an ambitious economic giant, extremely vulnerable to climate-induced stress is its large proportion of poor population whose livelihoods depend on agriculture and natural resources. Increasingly harsh weather patterns, declining rainfall and water stress in many parts of the country have become commonplace, with profound impact on poverty, rural livelihoods and migration to cities in search of economic opportunities. According to the World Bank, by 2020 the pressure on India’s water, air, soil and forests is expected to become the highest in the world. A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year warned that consequences of climate change for India would be devastating due to its huge population, extreme poverty and inequality. Rising sea levels, warns the report, will not only drive large-scale migration from its coastal communities to its already over-crowded urban centers but also from neighboring countries like Bangladesh, exposing it to destabilization, food and water insecurity and conflict over precious natural resources.

For Afghanistan, known as a country mired in insurgency and long-running bloody conflict, climate change is an equally formidable adversary. Warmer temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall over the years is pushing the country’s already vulnerable subsistence farming community to the edge. Destruction of crops due to failing rains and premature meltdown of mountain ice has become a grim routine in central highland provinces like Bamiyan, further aggravating cycles of debt, poverty and insecurity among communities dependent on agricultural livelihoods. More than 80 percent of conflicts in the country, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), have been linked to resources such land and water. Despite receiving billions of dollars in foreign aid toward strengthening infrastructure and agriculture in the country, Afghanistan remains woefully vulnerable to and ill-prepared to combat the effects of climate change. This situation is predicted to worsen. A joint study by UNEP, the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) and World Food Program has warned that temperatures in Afghanistan are expected to increase more than the global average, and will trigger long spells of drought in many parts of the country in the decades ahead.

The future of Bhutan and Nepal, two mountainous countries landlocked between India and China, is directly linked with the health of the Himalayan glaciers. The two mostly rural countries are heavily dependent on the glaciers for their water, food and energy security. Signs of climate distress in both countries are tangibly visible as a result of warming glaciers, raising concerns over the future of livelihoods, conservation, and subsistence of their mountainous communities. Recent years have brought erratic monsoons, longer hot spells, forest fires and droughts in the region. As HKH glaciers melt, the higher river flows could spell disaster for the fragile communities already beset by poverty, insufficient economic opportunities and inequality. While Bhutan is the only carbon-negative country in the world, by virtue of 70 percent of its land covered with thick woodlands acting as a large carbon sink, it’s still not immune to the effects of warming HKH glaciers. The country’s economic output and growth crucially depends on agriculture, hydropower and forestry, sectors that are highly climate-sensitive. As mean temperatures rise, the increasing water levels in glacial lakes dangerously exposes Nepal and Bhutan to GLFOs, threatening human and economic devastation, and displacement.

Factors behind climate-induced migration are often complex and poorly understood. But in recent years a growing volume of scientific studies and anthropological researches have established a strong link between climate change and migration and conflict. A UN Security Council debate earlier this year recognized the global phenomenon as a “threat multiplier.” Despite increasing awareness about global warming and environmental action movements gaining momentum around the world, the Hindu Kush Himalayan region continues to receive less attention than other hotspots like low-lying islands and the Arctic region. But scientists have warned that the HKH’s geological fragility combined with stressors like globalization, rapid industrialization, infrastructure development and, most importantly, rising global temperatures makes its large population extremely vulnerable to climate-induced stress. A destabilized HKH region with millions of climate refugees would have serious consequences for the whole world, they warn.

Nishtha Chugh is an award-winning development and security journalist based in the U.K. Her work has been published in The Guardian, Al Jazeera, BBC World Service, Channel 4 News, Open Democracy, Africa News and The Independent.