I hate to sound like a broken record but credit really goes to PMLN and the sound economic policies of the Nawaz Sharif administration. Pakistan's economy has been stabilized and it is now growing. Moodys, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg Business all reported Pakistan's economic status as positive.
Whether you like PMLN or not, this is the party that gets things done. Only one thing I would like to add is NS administration should prosecute Zardari and his government for any looted money and add that money to Pakistan's foreign exchange reserve.
ISLAMABAD: The reforms initiated by the government helped improve economic conditions during the fiscal year 2013, says Asian Development Bank (ADB) latest report released on Thursday.
"The continuation of economic reforms and efforts to improve the security environment would improve business confidence and help revive private investment," says Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update.
The report says that reflecting some improvement in electricity supply that facilitated increased industrial production,
GDP growth reached an estimated 4.1% in FY2014 (ended 30 June 2014), unexpectedly accelerating from 3.7% in FY2013.
Renewed support from development partners and a $2 billion eurobond issue, the first in 7 years, helped stabilize the currency and rebuild foreign exchange reserves from very low levels, it said.
This Update revises the growth projection for FY2015 to 4.2%, however, says even concerted reform will need several years to eliminate electricity and gas shortfalls and to effect the change needed to lift structural constraints on growth.
The consolidated fiscal deficit excluding grants was contained at 5.5% of GDP in FY2014, down from an average of 8.0% in the previous 3 years, it said adding this improvement came mainly from a large one-off increase in nontax revenues and a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.3% of GDP.
According to the report, the budget for FY2015 targets further reduction in the fiscal deficit to 4.9% of GDP through expenditure economies, reducedenergy subsidies, and a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.9% of GDP.
Headline inflation increased to an average of 8.6% in FY2014 from 7.4% in the previous year, lower than the ADO 2014 forecast.
Consumer price inflation was volatile through the year because of food price spikes in the first half of 2014.
In response, the central bank kept monetary policy tight in FY2014, increasing the policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points to 10%.
Inflationary expectations have nevertheless stabilized according to a May 2014 joint survey of business and consumer sentiment, with respondents apparently reacting to exchange rate stability stemming from improved financial inflows in the second half of FY2014 and reduced government borrowing from the domestic banking sector to support the budget. Inflation is now expected to average 8.2% in FY2015, slightly lower than FY2014, the report predicts.
Security challenges, floods in September 2014 in parts of the country, and political demonstrations pose downside risks to the FY2015 forecast, it adds.
The current account deficit in FY2014 was essentially unchanged from the previous year's 1.1% of GDP and slightly below the ADO 2014 forecast, it said adding the trade deficit widened moderately, but this was largely offset by continued strong growth in remittances from overseas workers.
The projection for the current account in FY2015 is unchanged, it adds.
Collectively, South Asia is performing better than expected as the subregional growth forecast for 2014 is edged up slightly to 5.4% in 2014.
The improvement reflects strengthening in Bangladesh on export growth andin Pakistan on higher remittances while growth in India in 2014 is expected torevive to 5.5% as previously forecast, after 2 disappointing years below 5%. Growth in South Asia will pick up to 6.1% in 2015, 0.3 percentage points faster than previously forecast.
Copyright APP (Associated Press of Pakistan), 2014
Reforms help improve economic conditions of Pakistan: ADB report
450m nahi balke 450 b le lay khan aur hamari jaan chor de
Brisk exports helped to maintain growth and a current account surplus in Fiscal Year 2014 in Bangladesh despite political disturbances ahead of elections in January 2014. Political blockades and violence in early 2015 will constrain growth and turn the current account into a small deficit. Higher growth and a current account surplus are projected to return in FY2016 with political calm. Prolonged strife remains a risk. Eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks and improving the investment climate are top priorities.
Selected Economic Indicators (%) - Bangladesh 2015 2016
GDP Growth 6.1 6.4
Inflation 6.5 6.2
Current Account Balance (share of GDP) -0.5 0.5
Source: ADB estimates.
Economic performance
In Bangladesh, economic growth in Fiscal Year 2014 (ended June 2014) is provisionally estimated at 6.1%, slightly improved from 6.0% in FY2013. Agriculture expanded by 3.3%, aided by good weather and continued government support. Industry growth slumped to 8.4% from 9.6% a year earlier, however, because political unrest before the parliamentary election in January 2014 disrupted the supply of materials and undermined consumer confidence. Services advanced by 5.8%, up slightly from 5.5% the year before, mainly on stronger trade in the second half of the year.
On the demand side, net exports added to growth as garment exports grew briskly. A decline in remittances and weak consumer confidence ahead of the election held down growth in consumer spending. Investment rose slightly to 28.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in FY2014 from 28.4% in the previous year, as private investment slipped to 21.4% of GDP from 21.8% in FY2013 while public investment rose from 6.6% to 7.3%. Private investment was constrained by the unsettled political environment, difficulties with infrastructure and skills deficits, and procedural problems that inhibit investment. Rising public investment came as the government stepped up its implementation of election pledges. Foreign direct investment remained low.
Economic prospects
Projections for FY2015 are based on a several assumptions: The central bank will maintain its cautious monetary stance to contain inflation, as envisaged in the January 2015 monetary policy statement. The government will raise electricity and natural gas prices to cut subsidies and keep current spending within the budget. It will attain targeted budget revenue and foreign financing and strengthen project implementation. Finally, the weather will be favorable.
GDP growth in FY2015 is projected at 6.1%. Before political unrest began in January 2015 - the anniversary of national elections that the opposition boycotted - the economy had been FY2015. Strong remittance inflows boosted consumption, and private investment was rising, as indicated by higher capital equipment imports. Although exports remained subdued, they were gradually improving as export orders picked up. However, political unrest and action to shut down transportation began undermining growth prospects by affecting private investment and export activity. Continued healthy remittance inflows are expected to support consumer spending, however, and sustain economic momentum. Notwithstanding the country’s resilience under domestic and external shocks, if political unrest continues, it would further hinder economic growth.
Growth in FY2016 is projected to accelerate to 6.4%, aided by higher remittances and export growth, which is underpinned by the continued economic recovery in the United States and the euro area. Consumer and investor confidence are expected to pick up as the political situation stabilizes, strengthening growth momentum. In addition, infrastructure constraints will likely ease somewhat with the completion of ongoing projects, particularly the opening of new power plants.
Excerpted from the
Asian Development Outlook 2015.
Corruption in Railways comes on surface
Islamabad: Audit has pointed out massive corruption of Rs 42 billion in the accounts of ministry of Railways, during the first year of Nawaz Sharif regime.
As per audit report, minister for railways Khawaja Saad Rafiq and secretary railways have not registered a case against the corrupt officers of railways, even after they were identified in audit report.
As per documents available, railways had to suffer a loss of Rs 11 billion due to lack of timely repair of railway engines in workshops.
Corruption amounting to Rs 30 million was committed in the name of journalists. Railways operational expenses have gone up by Rs 20 billion, while income has declined by Rs 30 billion. Massive loss of Rs 6 billion was inflicted owing to slackness shown in replacement of material. Financial malpractices amounting to Rs 10 billion took place in irregular purchases made by railway authorities.
Overall loss of Rs 15 billion occurred for not retrieving the railway lands from the illegal occupants. Stolen material worth Rs 6 billion was not recovered. Corrupt practices perpetrated in purchase of 202 railway coaches, took heavy toll on the budget of railways which led to pocketing of Rs 1.5 billion by corrupt officers. When contacted secretary railways Parveen Agha to seek her comments on the audit report, she kept mum over it.
Railway sources have confirmed such colossal corruption is in the knowledge of Khawaja Saad Rafiq, but he is using this report as tool of victimization of officers opposed to him in terms of political affiliations.
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