Pakistan's Afghan Question

[Sharpshooter12]

With Pak-Afghan relations at an all time low and this open confrontation on our western borders, the question is what can Pakistan do to solve this troubling Afghan question.

My understanding is that we need a holistic approach to actually solve this Afghan question.

An emotional or knee-jerk reaction will only push Afghanistan further into Indian camp. First of all we have to accept a few realities and then change our policy accordingly.

1. Kabul regime will not fall. Well not in the foreseeable future. West more precisely will not let it fall. Talibans while holding much of the country side will never be able to hold a major urban center. With the coalition air support they will always be pushed back by ANA, like what we saw in Kunduz a few months back.

2. Its not just the Afghan security apparatus and northern alliance warlords that hate us, Pakistan is the most hated country in Afghanistan's populace.

3. Similarly India is perhaps the most loved country not only by the Afghan establishment but by majority of Afghan public as well. And India is using this influence to harm our interests and will continue to do so in the future as well.

Now what to do about changing this situation. I think we should be doing two things in tandem.

1. Let Afghanistan know they can't afford a hostile Pakistan.

This one is the easy part.

Increase deployment along our western borders, and next time they do such mischief respond with extreme prejudice. Use gunships and even air force if required.

The damage on their side of the border should be so huge that it becomes a breaking news on prime time western media. Of course there will be backlash on diplomatic front, so before doing this we have to explain our position in major world capitals, use the Chaman incident for example and let them know that if it happens again what our response will be. If the US understood Turkey's case of moving into northern Iraq when US forces were deployed in the country, they will understand our position as well, if done properly.

This will deter Afghans from trying these shenanigans again for a very long time.

2. Let Afghanistan know we are their friends.

This one is the hard part.

First of all, we can't afford to lose whatever influence we have with Talibans just now. We need them until we completely wipe out the terrorism in our land and secure our borders. But what is their use after this has happened. As I said they are not going to rule Afghanistan again as US is not going to forfeit those bases, and until the coalition air power is removed from the equation what is their chances of capturing a major urban center. In next few days you'll again see the one district they just captured near Kunduz falling back into ANA hands.

So we need to slowly and methodically distance our self from them. If we have any real proxies in their top-tier leadership then we should try and get a few speeches attacking Pakistan, not now of course but in a year or two, that will give credibility to our claims.

We need soft power in Afghanistan. Of the present Afghan leadership, one can easily pick the names of politicians who are proxies of Iran, India, US and Uzbekistan and even Turkey. What are the big names that we can influence.

Of course Hikmatyar will be of great help in this regard. Hizb e Islami not as a militant movement, but as a political party can be a great asset. But we need more people in higher echelons of power in Afghanistan, and we all know how easy it is to influence politicians here in Pakistan so just imagine how easily ISI can do that with Afghan politicians.

We don't need to put all our bets on Talibans, we need political groups that are part of the system to tell our side of the story.

Also we need to increase Afghan economic dependence on Pakistan. Closing these borders only pushes them more towards Iran and India. Yes it worked in Ayub's era but it won't work this time around.

If we take a look at what India is doing in Afghanistan, we will come to the conclusion that they are making them less and less dependent on us and more and more on India.

Take medical tourism for example, naturally Afghans were coming to Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi for getting any major treatment, but we made it difficult for them to get into our country and at the same time India made it far more easier and even cost-effective to get that treatment in India. So with that policy who is at loss here.

Chahbahar might not be a game changer in regional trade, but it surely will be a game-changer for Afghanistan. Now they have an option to bypass Pakistan and get their goods from Iran. India and Iran are building infrastructure and will try their best to facilitate Afghan traders, again who is at loss here.

We need to make it easier for Afghans to trade through Gwadar or Karachi, not for economic reasons, they might be negligible, but for the sole reason for keeping Afghans dependent on us economically. We need to make it easier for Afghans to get medical treatment in Pakistan.

I understand that we can't afford to spend as much in building soft power in Afghanistan as our western neighbor so let the private sector help us out here. Government can help Edhi foundation to set up its facilities in Afghanistan. We have some very good private hospitals in Peshawar, help them set-up a private state of the art facility in Kabul or Kandahar. Especially Artificial Limbs Centres which are most needed in that war-torn country. Ask Shaukat Khanam to establish a cancer hospital there.

Use cultural similarity to our advantage. Persian is the biggest weapon in Iranian armory that they are using to great effect to gain influence in Afghanistan. But that is the first language of a minority in Afghanistan.

But our second largest ethnic group is their largest ethnic group, use that to our advantage, rather than being scared of Pushtunistan boogie man, that is dead as a donkey so no need to worry about that.

But above all we need to accept a reality. Afghanistan will not be our friend. It was not our friend ever since we came into being. We even had issues with Taliban regime regarding durand line (Mohmand agency issue). But Afghanistan does not need to be an enemy either. It did not attack us in 65 and not even in 71 when we were at our weakest.

So let's try to co-exist without being enemy.

 

[Hassan Guy]

Maybe when Afghanistan becomes stable again we can open our borders but until then they are just a liability.

With the current situation we should try and distance ourselves from them as much as possible.

 

[Morpheus]

Right now the only solution i see that is viable, seal the boarder completely, no food, medicine, or treatment for any Afghans and close all boarder post, no more visa for anyone. Give them a couple of weeks and then they will they realize their mistake in trusting india.

 

[Sharpshooter12]

Right now the only solution i see that is viable, seal the boarder completely, no food, medicine, or treatment for any Afghans and close all boarder post, no more visa for anyone. Give them a couple of weeks and then they will they realize their mistake in trusting india.

As I said this worked fine for us in the past. In the Ayub's era Afghans even tried a military incursion into Baluchistan in 1960, and were beaten back and were heavily bombed by PAF. After that we closed the border and that brought them to senses.

But this time they have options. Back then Iran was our CENTO partner, they were supporting us in all of our territorial disputes. This time around both of us are competing for influence in Afghanistan. With Chahbahar and even Bandar Abbas and the infrastructure India and Iran are planning for connecting these ports to Afghanistan, we will only hasten the process by closing these borders.

 

[Morpheus]

As I said this worked fine for us in the past. In the Ayub's era Afghans even tried a military incursion into Baluchistan in 1960, and were beaten back and were heavily bombed by PAF. After that we closed the border and that brought them to senses.

But this time they have options. Back then Iran was our CENTO partner, they were supporting us in all of our territorial disputes. This time around both of us are competing for influence in Afghanistan. With Chahbahar and even Bandar Abbas and the infrastructure India and Iran are planning for connecting these ports to Afghanistan, we will only hasten the process by closing these borders.

Then the other option i see is, which is very unlikely to ever happen is, we should start bring nukes near the boarder. We don't have to use them, but a just presence might be enough to deter them from any more hostile activities.