Pakistan: The Future Military Leadership

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Pakistan: The Future Military Leadership

June 08, 2007 20 45 GMT

Summary

For the first time since Pakistan's current political crisis began March 9, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf acknowledged June 7 that he is in trouble. His admission that his hold on power is slipping raises significant doubts about his ability to secure a second term in the presidential election slated for the second half of September. It is too early to predict which actor will succeed him politically, but Musharraf's ability (or lack thereof) to win re-election will be a key element in shaping the Pakistani military's future.

Analysis

In a speech to lawmakers from Pakistan's ruling coalition, embattled Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said he is worried and warned that a change in the current political order would be disastrous for the country, Pakistani media reported June 7. Musharraf accused his parliamentary allies of abandoning him in the ongoing political crisis and said he constantly receives reports about what they are saying privately. The president went on to criticize his allies for not supporting him publicly and questioned their usefulness if they are not willing to step up and defend him in the media and other public forums against criticism from the opposition.

These comments -- Musharraf's first admission of concern since the political crisis began March 9 -- show that the Musharraf regime is buckling under the weight of the crisis, which has created serious fissures within the civilian side of the hybrid Musharrafian political system. Infighting among his allies -- upon whom he depends to secure a second presidential term -- and the rapidly intensifying unrest in the country raise serious doubts about Musharraf's ability to win the next presidential election, scheduled for the second half of September. If the president cannot win re-election, he could try to impose an emergency rule of sorts, but that would only exacerbate matters.

When Musharraf cannot seek re-election, his generals likely will force him to throw in the towel, and a caretaker government, whose main task will be holding fresh parliamentary elections, will be created. It is too early to predict which political force will form the next government, since a number of elements are in play. Whatever happens to Musharraf politically, the composition of Pakistan's military -- with or without Musharraf -- is relatively easier to discern.

If Musharraf Wins Re-election

Musharraf not only wants to get re-elected as president, but he also wants to do so while holding onto the position of military chief. This is because he wants to oversee the forthcoming round of promotions and retirements in order to build the right team to ensure his hold on power -- a step that would be an absolute necessity if Musharraf later caves to domestic pressure and steps down as military chief.

The military deck is scheduled to undergo a routine reshuffle in the first week of October. The most prominent change to come is the retirement of Musharraf's two senior-most subordinates: Vice Chief of the Army Staff (VCOAS) Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hayat and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) Gen. Ehsan ul-Haq. Currently, these two are the only four-star generals besides Musharraf himself. If he wins re-election in September, Musharraf's priority will be to fill the vacant positions. This process will bring to the fore younger generals, among whom there are a number of possible candidates based on merit and seniority, as well as on personal ties to Musharraf:

* Lt. Gen. Tariq Majeed: commander of the 10th Corps, who is considered to be the most capable among all the corps commanders, and who is the front-runner for the No. 2 position of VCOAS

* Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani: director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and another senior general who could be appointed to the No. 3 post, the CJCSC

* Lt. Gen. Salahuddin Satti: current chief of the General Staff who, though a bit junior to other generals, could be moved to a key position

* Lt. Gen. Muhammad Yousaf: current vice chief of the General Staff, who also could be appointed to a critical position



While effecting promotions and appointments, he would want to make sure that his own position is not threatened, especially given the growing movement to oust him from power. Moreover, should he need to step down as military chief and become a civilian president, he would want the next military chief to be beholden to him. This involves not just loyalty but also the creation of dependency. Therefore, he could go beyond the top tier of generals and elevate others, such as 4th Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Shafaatullah Shah, Quarter Master General Lt. Gen. Afzal Muzaffar or 30th Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Waseem Ahmed Ashraf. Director-General of Military Intelligence Maj-Gen. Nadeem Ejaz could also become a three-star general and be made director-general of the ISI.

There is a downside to filling the top slots with second-tier commanders. These generals are inexperienced in political matters, especially in situations like the current crisis. Therefore, they are more likely to press Musharraf to step down if the existing situation escalates, especially with political forces mobilizing for the parliamentary elections slated for November.

Considering the pace and magnitude of the anti-Musharraf movement's growth, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that Musharraf can win re-election. Once Musharraf realizes that an election victory is beyond his reach, he could attempt to impose emergency rule as a means of prolonging his hold on power. This will only accelerate the unrest and lead to the point at which his generals will likely have to force him to quit.

If Musharraf is Forced to Step Down

Though he is the army chief, Musharraf has not had time to oversee the day-to-day running of the military because of his duties as president -- especially as a president who has had to deal with an extraordinary number of domestic and foreign policy issues. As a result, Hayat has been running the military on Musharraf's behalf and could easily step into the role of military chief.

But the task of removing the increasingly unpopular Musharraf -- especially since Hayat is due to retire -- would make the process very complicated, to say the least. Furthermore, Hayat is known to be mild-mannered, which makes him unlikely to initiate Musharraf's removal. Instead, a consensus among corps commanders and certain key agency heads would be required.

This is where the other four-star general, Ehsan-ul-Haq, who has served as head of the military's two intelligence directorates, could play an important role. However, Ehsan-ul-Haq's position is ceremonial, so he does not have the authority to get the ball rolling or even secure a position in a post-Musharraf military leadership. This makes the role of the corps commanders -- who already are key because they are in command of the troops -- all the more important.

From the seniority standpoint, Majeed and Kiyani would be the key deciding players, while Satti and commander of the Mangla-based 1st Corps Lt. Gen. Sajjad Akram would be the prominent players from a logistical standpoint. At the end of the day, a consensus would be needed among the three-star generals, who likely would back Hayat to succeed Musharraf as army chief and get a three-year extension, thereby avoiding his scheduled retirement.

Hayat's first order of business as military chief would be to work with the political forces and the civilian establishment to install an acting president and caretaker government headed by an interim prime minister, which would hold parliamentary elections within 90 days. Though Hayat would not inherit Musharraf's political powers, he would be the one to oversee the reshuffle of the military deck, at which point every position aside from his own would be up for grabs. That said, those who would have played leading roles in the removal of Musharraf will be the ones most likely to assume key posts in the post-Musharraf military hierarchy.

After Musharraf's departure from the helm, regardless of how and when that happens, the military is unlikely to continue to directly run the country. Moreover, because of the assertiveness of the judiciary and the media, and an increasingly vibrant civil society, the military will have to give the civilian setup more freedom than it did in 1988, when military rule came to an end after military-chief-cum-president Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq died in a mysterious plane crash. But, for the foreseeable future, the military will continue to maintain a strong hold over the state -- partly because it is the most disciplined and professional institution in the country.

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An interesting speculation.

Given that BB and NS may return and no one knows who will win and with the backroom pacts between Musharraf and BB, it is an open question.

It is true that the Judiciary is flexing its muscles, but Musharraf, while not declaring martial law can always declare an emergency.

If he does that, one wonders how the pennies will fall.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

An interesting speculation.

Given that BB and NS may return and no one knows who will win and with the backroom pacts between Musharraf and BB, it is an open question.

It is true that the Judiciary is flexing its muscles, but Musharraf, while not declaring martial law can always declare an emergency.

If he does that, one wonders how the pennies will fall.

Only time will tell how the BB, NS saga blays out, but I don't think the SC will rock the boat much more. Their decision yesterday to not grant a stay against Musharafs' re-election, and the CJ's justification to the effect of "not destabilizing the system", indicates to me that the SC is cognizant of the chaos that could result from any drastic actions on their part.

 

[blain2]

The appointment of the CoAS (instead of VCOAS) and CJCSC will happen before Oct 7 (both are to retire then). The only factors in their selection are competency and support for the system going forward. Seniority at this level is usually not a major consideration.

Generals waiting in the wings -DAWN - Top Stories; September 07, 2007

Generals waiting in the wings



By Zaffar Abbas


ISLAMABAD, Sept 6: Handling two former prime ministers — for diametrically opposite reasons — and worrying about a possible legal challenge to his re-election as the country’s president may well be occupying General Pervez Musharraf’s mind most of the time these days. But another equally, if not more, important decision that he has so far kept close to his chest, and which he is expected to announce within the next couple of weeks is of the appointment of two four-star generals who would replace the outgoing chairman of joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC) and vice-chief of army staff (VCOAS) in early October.

Certainly, more crucial of the two appointments is that of VCOAS because, unlike the incumbent Vice-Chief, General Ahsan Salim Hayat, the new appointee may, within a matter of a few months, replace Gen Musharraf as the army chief once he decides to doff his uniform. In fact, with the controversy about the presidential election acquiring a new dimension with the Supreme Court’s judicial intervention, the possibility of Gen Musharraf relinquishing his military position earlier, and directly appointing his successor can also not be ruled out.

So who will be the next VCOAS who, after taking over as the army chief, will soon acquire the status of the proverbial ‘king maker’ of Pakistani politics? Everyone in the military has remained tight-lipped on the issue, perhaps because their guess is as good as that of any astute civilian. At this stage the only person who knows about it, and whose future political career depends on it, is the president. And he is in no mood to drop any hint before the actual announcement.

So, it was hardly a surprise that when this question was put to the army spokesman, and Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Major General Waheed Arshad, he had no answer. All he knew, he said, was that the announcement should be made within the next few weeks as the CJCSC General Ehsan and VCOAS General Ahsan Salim Hayat were to retire on Oct 7.

However, Gen Waheed Arshad said since the president is also the COAS, the decision to make the two appointments would be entirely his.Those who are privy to the officers’ seniority list say there is only one person, whose profile doesn’t mention the date of retirement. He is Gen Musharraf, in whose retirement column it has been stated that ‘till the appointment of the next COAS’. All others have a specific retirement date, including the other two four-star generals.

In such a situation, it should hardly come as a surprise to anyone that while Gen Musharraf himself belongs to the 29th PMA course, because of his prolonged stay as the army chief, the successor he plans to choose will be either from the 45th or 46th course. The seniority list of the top 12 lieutenant generals makes an interesting reading, and provides some idea about the various possibilities that exists, and the kind of choice that Gen Musharraf has for selecting the CJCSC and VCOAS. Topping the list is Lt. Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, who is Director-General of the all-prestigious Strategic Plan Division. But he is already on extension and is not likely to be considered for the post of VCOAS. However, some believe that because of his deep involvement with the military’s strategic nuclear assets, he may have an outside chance of becoming the chairman, JCSC. If a combination of seniority and competence remains the criteria, then current ISI chief, Lt. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, may pair with him to be the new vice-chief.

But if Lt. Gen Kidwai is out, the two senior most three-star generals who qualify for the two coveted posts are Lt. Gen Kiani pairing with the Commander 10 Corps, Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed, with the former being elevated to the largely ceremonial post of CJCSC and the latter being made the VCOAS.

Opinion has remained divided on such a selection, and though most people believe this to be the most likely pairing, there has been some whispering campaign to create an impression that Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed was no more the favourite. However, none of those talking in such terms has ever been able to come up with a logical reason to support such an argument for a person who, like Lt. Gen Kiani, is regarded as a thorough professional, and someone who has been on the most prestigious appointments.

But some retired generals and many others who regard themselves as expert on such military matters -- and there is no dearth of such people -- seniority alone has never been the criterion for selection at this level. And even the army’s spokesman agrees to such a proposition.

They point to several examples from the last few decades when competence and loyalty had been as important factors as seniority. Gen Zia-ul-Haq was appointed the army chief by the then prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto on top of several senior generals. Twenty years later, Gen Musharraf was made the COAS by prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Even though he was not the senior most, the then PM, due to some misplaced concepts about the military’s composition, thought he might feel obliged and remain loyal. Both proved their benefactors wrong. But that’s another story. In between these two, a number of other generals who rose to serve as the army chief, and some after superseding a few others, retired on the completion of their tenure, and without directly intervening in civilian affairs.

Observers say it is not only as the president’s right, but also a necessity, to take into account competence and loyalty along with seniority while making the decision. Even if such factors are taken into account, it is said that the two senior-most, Kiani and Majeed, fit the bill, and remain the front-runners.

But this has not stopped many among the retired officers and active politicians to discuss and speculate about various senior generals, who can be described as aspirants for the top appointments. And one factor that has helped fuel such debate is that at least seven lieutenant generals are from the same batch -- 46th PMA -- and the difference in their seniority is largely because of the timing of their various appointments.

It is for this reason that people are still not ruling out the presence of a dark horse, who could be anyone from amongst Lt. Gen Mohammed Sabir, who is MS in GHQ, to the Quarter Master General Lt. Gen Afzal Muzzaffar, or even the Gujranwala Corps Commander, Lt. Gen Wasim Ashraf.

Selection of a person who is to command the troops is a crucial decision in almost every country, but certainly not as crucial as in Pakistan. Because of the country’s chequered political history, and repeated military interventions in civilian affairs, the army chief remains a key player in the decision-making process. So, it’s not without reason that President Musharraf is taking his own time to decide about the next VCOAS, who in all likelihood, would soon be the next army chief.

Seniority list

1. Lt. Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai — DG Strategic Plan Division (SPD)

2. Lt. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani — DG Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)

3. Lt. Gen Malik Arif Hayat — serving in GHQ (may not qualify as never commanded a corps)

4. Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed — Corps Commander, Rawalpindi

5. Lt. Gen Mohammed Safdar — Chief of Logistical Service (CLS), GHQ

6. Lt. Gen Ather Ali — DG at Joint Staff Headquarters

7. Lt. Gen Wasim Ahmad Ashraf — Corps Commander, Gujranwala

8. Lt. Gen Mohammed Sabir — Military Secretary, GHQ

9. Lt. Gen Imtiaz Hussain — Adjutant General, GHQ

10. Lt. Gen Muhammad Afzal Muzzaffar — Quarter Master General, GHQ

11. Lt. Gen Hamid Rab Nawaz — IG T&E, GHQ

12. Lt. Gen Muhammad Salahuddin Satti — Chief of General Staff, GHQ