Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, a deterrent against India, but also US?

[SpArK]

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, a deterrent against India, but also United States ?
​

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons have been conceived and developed as a deterrent against mighty neighbour India, more so now when its traditional rival has added economic heft to its military muscle. But Islamabad may also be holding onto its nuclear arsenal to deter an even more powerful challenge, which to its mind, comes from the United States, according to Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who led President Barack Obama’s 2009 policy review on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Pakistan and the United States are allies in the war against militancy, but ties have been so troubled in recent years that some in Pakistan believe that the risk of a conflict cannot be dismissed altogether and that the bomb may well be the country’s only hedge against an America that looks less a friend and more a hostile power.

Last year the Obama administration said there could be consequences if the next attack in the West were to be traced backed to Pakistan, probably the North Waziristan hub of al Qaeda, the Taliban and other militant groups.No nation can ignore a warning as chilling as that, and it is reasonable to expect the Pakistan military to do what it can to defend itself.

Riedel in a piece in The Wall Street Journal says Pakistan’s army chief Ashfaq Kayani may well have concluded that the only way to hold off a possible American military action is the presence of nuclear weapons on its soil and hence the frenetic race to increase the size of the arsenal to the point that Pakistan is on track to become the fourth largest nuclear power after the United States, Russia and China.

Last month’s military action in Libya, the third Muslim nation attacked by the United States in the ten years since 9/11, can only heighten anxieties in Pakistan. Indeed Libya holds an opposite lesson for Pakistan’s security planners. This is a country that gave up a nuclear weapons programme - ironically assisted by Pakistan’s disgraced nuclear scientist A.Q.Khan – under a deal with the West following the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Suppose for a moment that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi had held on its nuclear weapons, would there have been air strikes then ?

Indeed none of the three countries attacked by the United States had nuclear weapons including, as it turned out, Iraq although the whole idea of invading it was to eliminate the weapons of mass destruction. You could further argue that this perhaps is the one reason why the United States hasn’t taken on North Korea because of its advanced nuclear programme with a bomb or two in the basement.

Kayani and the generals have therefore concluded the only reason the United States may hesitate to use force against Pakistan, should ties break down completely, will be because of the 100-odd weapons it has. It only makes sense to expand it further to make the Americans think twice before launching an action.

But such nuclear brinkmanship cannot come without consequences of its own, and one of them will be India reviewing its nuclear posture. A Pakistan battling a deadly Islamist militancy and beset with economic difficulties but on a fast track to expand its nuclear weapons programme is a nightmare scenario. Riedel says India has exercised restraint on its weapons program me, but seeing an acceleration in the Pakistani efforts, it may well step up production of its own.

Some people, of course, argue nuclear weapons are really not a numbers game. How does it matter if you have 100 weapons when you can just as easily blow up your enemy with a quarter of those ? What is more critical is command and control of these weapons, as the Indian National Interest blog points out.

Pakistan. in addition, sees the window closing once the world moves on an agreement on fissile material cut-off treaty which it has been resisting all along. But once that agreement is in place and a lot depends on the United States, then theoretically it will have to cease fissile material production needed for weapons.

India, by contrast, can use its domestic reserves of nuclear material should it require to expand its arsenal, now that it has been allowed import of nuclear fuel and technology under a landmark agreement with the United States. Pakistan sought a similar deal but was denied, because of among other issues its record of nuclear proliferation.


SOurce:Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, a deterrent against India, but also United States ? | Afghan Journal | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters.com

 

[Mech]

And the axe finally drops. Its only so long till rogue agents cease to function.

 

[muse]

Excellent! Pakistan must make the case to her public and to the regional public that Pakistan's defense is beyond friend or foe, that Pakistani policy evaluates contingencies and intent, based on capability and societal role of ideas that promote hatred, ethnic and religious because these metrics allow it to better judge the kinds of ideas that motivate the leadership in societies and the degree of threats these pose to Pakistan and therefore world peace.

 

[acetophenol]

nukes are always an asset!

 

[Leader]

even if we are bound to cut off fissile material.... once a nuke is always a nuke !! it has no expiry date !!

 

[Solomon2]

Excellent! Pakistan must make the case to her public and to the regional public that Pakistan's defense is beyond friend or foe, that Pakistani policy evaluates contingencies and intent, based on capability and societal role of ideas that promote hatred, ethnic and religious because these metrics allow it to better judge the kinds of ideas that motivate the leadership in societies and the degree of threats these pose to Pakistan and therefore world peace.

Weekend reading was Bhutto's 1967 treatise The Myth of Independence. Your thinking is very much a contrast with his which has guided Pakistan's "defense" policy for so long.

 

[muse]

I'm not familiar with this work - can you elaborate?

 

[Solomon2]

I'm not familiar with this work - can you elaborate?

ZAB wrote this book soon after being tossed out of the F.O. but before his resurrection, apparently as a primer for up-and-coming Pakistani diplomats. He describes what goals Pakistan should pursue and why, often accompanied by specious reasoning and lies of convenience. Bhutto wasn't concerned with "defense" of the Pakistani people from attack or even their well-being and development as he was with conquering a good chunk of India, slaving Pakistani policy to that of Arab dictators, and moaning about the supposed oppressions of "neocolonialism" that simultaneously armed and developed Pakistan while restraining it from achieving the immoral and bloody aims Bhutto desired. (see penis envy and castration anxiety.)

Reading this book and comparing its claims with what is really known of events as revealed, say, in the U.S. State Dept./CIA declassified files or from other sources lowers one's opinion of Bhutto considerably. Doubtless had he not been transmogrified into a martyr this book would be acknowledged as revealing Bhutto for what he was: a intelligent but conniving wimp, keen to pull his country into committing communal crimes, too spineless to admit to his people when he made mistakes, to pursue right in contradiction of popular fancy, or confess the true facts of a situation, if these contradicted the preconceptions he desired Pakistanis hold in their minds.

 

[muse]

All you have to know about ZAB is that he was traitorous - a piece of India? No, that's rubbish, he was willing to ensure that East Pakistan and her 80 million Pakistani citizens lose their citizenship so that he can be premier -- enough about ZAB, but you will soon hear more about him as the PPP battles the CJP

 

[Elmo]

All you have to know about ZAB is that he was traitorous - a piece of India? No, that's rubbish, he was willing to ensure that East Pakistan and her 80 million Pakistani citizens lose their citizenship so that he can be premier -- enough about ZAB, but you will soon hear more about him as the PPP battles the CJP

Enough about ZAB? Honestly?

The public holiday for him last week, and the way he has been beatified by left-wing/liberal media men is revolting.

No one dared to even quote what he had said in one of his trademark fiery speeches: "Yeh Bengali sora hain" (they are pigs"

The collective memories of the people notwithstanding, ZAB will be around for a long time as will his party and the two's policies of convenience and sycophancy, and appeasing the West.

I am afraid Zulfiqar Mirza is re-incarnating himself in the form of ZAB with his media inetrview 2 days back, where he called took on the MQM, and has for long been stirring arguments and reactions on ethnic lines.

 

[indian dream]

nukes are always an asset!

But in my opinion, nukes are not assets, Probably no one is going to use nukes against any country... Bcoz the nuclear radiation from japan reaches russia and US. The radiation level will be very high in case of using nukes against any country... If pakistan nukes india(or vice-versa) definitely it will affect china, srilanka,etc...Then the world will not be a silent spectator and there will be an abrupt change in the climate also...

In my opinion nukes are not assets..

 

[muse]

I am afraid Zulfiqar Mirza is re-incarnating himself in the form of ZAB with his media inetrview 2 days back, where he called took on the MQM, and has for long been stirring arguments and reactions on ethnic lines.

Perhaps there will be a remedy for such insanity in the near future.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

Enough about Bhutto.. !!!
Its been quoted in Shahab Nama, that Once during the reign of Ayub Khan When ZAB was a young FM , President John F Kennedy of the US was on official State visit to Pakistan , On the Scene of Arival on Airport Ayub Khan was introducing President Kennedy to his cabinet,When Kennedy Came across Bhutto, He shook his hand and said "Mr Bhotto , i have heard allot about you , If only you would have been in US , then you would have been in my cabinet " Bhutto Replied , "No Mr President You are Wrong, if i would have been in US then you would have been in My Cabinet" .

Though Bhutto Did many wrongs, But his Role and Personality stands alone when it comes to the making Pakistan a Might, Unfortunately he too Met a sadistic demise when Henry Kissinger Threatened him of making a horrible Example Out of him if Pakistan continued on to the path of acquiring Nuclear Technology, Within 8 months of that threat Bhutto made it to the Gallows, Much at the Hand of Gen Zia - UL - Haq who enjoyed a nice evening with the then Ambassador of the US the night before Bhutto was removed from Power.
What the Zia and his cronies Backed by the US did , No Pakistani should ever forget , And with every suicide bombing in a major suburb,every drone attack on Pakistani soil and retard mercenaries killing innocent Pakistanis and with every Pakistani soldier Dying, things add up to highlight the Strategic Failure of policy of the US when it backed Zia to remove Bhutto and all the events that followed after the defeat of the Soviet Union.
One must be just enough to analyze the chain of events.

 

[JonAsad]

Kayani and the generals have therefore concluded the only reason the United States may hesitate to use force against Pakistan, should ties break down completely, will be because of the 100-odd weapons it has. It only makes sense to expand it further to make the Americans think twice before launching an action.

Good- thats all we need to justify our nuke arsenal-
Well written article though-

 

[below_freezing]

Pakistan must always beware of the US. The US does and will attack any nation it deems to have resources with a high enough benefit:cost ratio. All countries should beware of the US threat.