Your analyse is totally correct, and I agree that the Jf-17 can Provide a little air defence, but when I look a the numbers which IAF will throw in the battle our F-16 and Jf-17 will be fully
stretched at the Land. At the end its always the combination of all System, close air defence at the Pakistan Land ( ca. 2000 AA Guns and 2000 Manpads) forces the IAF to fly higher so the chance to get in clash with our Air Defence Fighters is very high for IAF. The same tactic should be transfared at the sea. Pakistan can increase the low air defence threat to India by adding to EVERY PN Ship which is on sea duty (Tankers,Patrol boats, Jalalat boats,Azmat Boats etc) a well trained Team equipped with ANZA MANPADS (thats the cheapes option) that will force the IAF Jets to fly on High Altitude and come in the range our Fighter Jets and give a small air defense deterrence for our operating ships in the Sea which have not 24 hours air cover or are in the range of our air defense missiles !
Your right thats a chance !