‘Pakistan lacks a Taliban strategy’

[fatman17]

‘Pakistan lacks a Taliban strategy’

* CNN security analyst says if Islamabad ‘breaks up’ or Taliban take over ‘that is a much bigger deal than Afghanistan’

LAHORE: Both Pakistani politicians and the military lack a strategy on how to deal with the Taliban, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen has said.

“I don’t think,” said Bergen while speaking about Pakistan’s historic and current impact on the politics of Afghanistan, “the Pakistani establishment knows what they’re going to do with this problem, and when I say the establishment, I mean the political-military establishment. I don’t think they have a real plan. I think they’re surviving day-to-day.”

Asked, why America was providing economic as well as military assistance to Pakistan, he said, “Pakistan is where the Taliban are headquartered. Pakistan is where Al Qaeda is headquartered. Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Pakistan has proliferated nuclear weapon technologies to other rogue states. And it’s going to be the fifth largest country in the world with perhaps 200 million people by 2015.

Deal: “If this country breaks up or if the militants were to take over … that is a much bigger deal than Afghanistan.”

Bergen said he believed the Pakistani Taliban were different from the Afghan Taliban. Whereas the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Omar were fairly clear that the Pakistani government was not their main enemy and did not want to unnecessarily antagonise the Pakistani government. The Pakistani Taliban on the other hand seem to have a different tack.

Bergen said in Pakistan there was a weak elected civilian government and a strong un-elected ‘military government’ that continued to have a veto over national security policy.

Asked about US options in Pakistan, he said, they were “fairly limited”. “The US has some leverage in Pakistan, but it doesn’t [have the option] of occupying Pakistan and it never will. I think the problem is not that the US doesn’t have a strategy to deal with the militants. I think the problem is that the Pakistanis don’t really have a coherent strategy. If they don’t have a coherent strategy, it’s really hard for the United States to support their strategy. They waver between essentially military expeditions and appeasement, and neither is very successful.”

Asked if the US would simply invade the Tribal Areas, he said, “The only circumstance under which that would be even remotely possible is if there was another major terrorist attack in the US that was traceable to the FATA.”

Bergen said he believed that while the US drone programme was a tactical success it was probably a strategic error. “What happens,” he explained, “is that all the militants … move further into Pakistan because they’re trying to escape these strikes, and they further destabilise the Pakistani state. At the end of the day, an unstable Pakistan is more of a strategic error for the United States than an unstable Afghanistan”.

daily times monitor

 

[Bill Longley]

hmmm
what US is doing to control forign finances reaching from afghanistan to pakistan in pockets of Takfiri groups like Baitullah and TNSM?

thats they main question
they cannot blame us when they them selves are overlooking the activites of en states in afghanistan against pakistan

 

[Jihad]

How much or how effectively are Pakistani intelligence agencies working together with American ones?
Does Pakistan have acces to Taliban targets or areas which the Americans are monitoring?
We'd destroy the Taliban if we only had acces to the very same high-tech equipment the Americans are using for their counter insurgency tactics e.g. in Afghanistan or Iraq.

 

[ajpirzada]

for the first time pakistan has her own strategy. build a national consensus, expose the true face of taliban which will get u local support and then launch a military offensive.
previously we neither had any kind of national consensus nor local support and both of them are must if u want to win any war.
swat deal has exposed talibans and more political parties are callin for a military operation. even the locals cant criticise the gov for not listenin to their demands.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Pakistan goes its own pace on militants​

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ISLAMABAD - When is a peace deal not a peace deal? The one signed between the Pakistani government and militants in the Swat area in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) in February which imposed sharia law in return for a ceasefire could be such a deal.

The government said on Monday that at least 26 militants had been killed in Lower Dir, close to the Swat Valley, after two days of fighting in one of the districts covered by the sharia deal.

However, a Taliban spokesman in the area said the assault by paramilitary Frontier Corps forces was a "violation" of the deal. The Taliban at the weekend withdrew from neighboring Buner district just 96 kilometers from the capital Islamabad. They had briefly taken over the area.

"We don't have any intentions to spread out to Islamabad. We will contain ourselves up to the Swat Valley and want to present a model of true Islamic justice in Malakand Agency. We have pulled out all external Taliban elements from Buner and there is no reason for any military operation to be conducted now," Muslim Khan said in a statement.

Despite the latest developments, informed quarters have told Asia Times Online there will be no compromise on the Swat peace deal, despite pressure from Washington, and that other such deals might be made. Nevertheless, military operations will continue if the militants commit any violations.

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in response to the troubles in Buner that the "Taliban advances pose an existential threat to the survival of Pakistan", yet the leaders in Islamabad appear relaxed.

What Pakistan is up to
Over the past eight months, Pakistan has developed a counter-insurgency policy in response to two categories of militants. These are the major players in the regional war which form the Afghan national resistance against foreign troops, and a minor segment in Pakistan which only aims to create chaos inside that country with the particular object of neutralizing Islamabad's support in the "war on terror".

The major regional players, including Taliban leader Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Mullah Bradar, Jalaluddin Haqqani and Anwarul Haq Mujahid, have never wanted to create instability in Pakistan. Islamabad believes that if tomorrow foreign armies were to leave Afghanistan, these people would dominate.

The minor groups, the Pakistani establishment analyzes, are not anti-Pakistan in the sense that they want to seize the state of Pakistan; they simply want to end Pakistan's collaboration with the US on the terror front.

These include Dr Ismail in Bajaur Agency, Mullah Nazir and his Ahmadzai Wazir tribe in South Waziristan and Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan. The establishment wants to make ceasefire deals with these militants through direct and indirect tribal and non-tribal channels.

This would leave a small segment of militants, namely the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, including Baitullah Mehsud, Mullah Fazlullah of Swat, Abdul Hakeem Mehsud in Orakzai, Punjabi militants and Uzbek warlords. They aim to bring chaos to Pakistan over the "war on terror".

In the post-George W Bush era, Pakistan is able to work on the basis of ground realities rather than at the dictate of the US and the myths it wove about al-Qaeda and the Taliban. This forced Pakistan to sign on for entire campaigns, such as to hunt for high-profile targets such as Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawarhiri and other Arabs and foreign elements. The new policy aims at the elimination of insurgents without any specific campaign.

Major General Tariq Khan, the Inspector General of the Frontier Corps (FC), is at the forefront of this. He spoke last week to Asia Times Online at the FC's headquarters in the historic Balahisar Fort in Peshawar, the capital of NWFP.

The Frontier Corps is trained and equipped by the Americans and has emerged in the past few years as a major counter-insurgency force that has been lauded by US army chief Admiral Mike Mullen for its role in Operation Lion Heart.

In this operation, the FC was involved in the Mohmand and Bajaur areas, while across the border in Afghanistan North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces were active in Kunar and Nooristan provinces. The aim was to clip the wings of the Taliban in the southeastern Afghan corridors all the way up to northeastern Kapisa province near the capital Kabul.

"Our position on the operation in Bajaur and Mohmand was against the violence which had suddenly erupted in Bajaur," said Khan. "The operation was not meant for al-Qaeda as al-Qaeda does not have any sizeable presence anywhere in the region. They are facilitators or leaders in some parts. During that operation in Bajaur and Mohmand, the insurgents who clashed with the government were killed, including the Arabs."

Khan added that from the perspective of the Pakistani forces, they were just fighting militants, whether Arabs or locals, and they fought them without any particular treatment. Khan said the military's policy had enabled Pakistan in the past eight months to gain ground and redeploy its forces in five tribal areas out of the seven from where they had been ejected by the militants.

Asia Times Online contacts maintain it is a common perception, especially among the top strategic quarters in Washington, that once the Pakistan army started mobilizing troops for these operations and NATO beefed up its presence in Kunar and Nooristan, the top leadership of al-Qaeda, including Bin Laden and Zawahiri, moved out of this region.

They are thought to have shifted to a nearby place, either deep inside the jungles of Nooristan on the Afghan side or somewhere around Chittral. Recently, Washington pressurized Pakistan to start a new joint campaign for the hunt of Bin Laden, but Pakistan refused to allow such an operation in which US special forces would take part.

Khan, however, does not believe Bin Laden or Zawahiri were in the region when Pakistani forces moved in. "I know many people speculate about that, but I would like them to share intelligence, and then we would love to hunt them."

In terms of Pakistan's counter-insurgency prioritizes, one of the world's most wanted persons - Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud - rates low, although his network has caused major instability not only in NWFP but in the entire country. Some say he is the harbinger of the neo-Taliban's strength.

"Baitullah Mehsud is overrated," said Kahn. "Nobody has really gone into South Waziristan and sorted him out and when that happens, probably we will make a better assessment of his capacity. We have given him some importance in the area, and it has allowed him to acquire a kind of artificial leadership because whenever someone has trouble, they call him and he sends in some improvised-explosive-devise experts and a few rocket experts, who are Tajiks and Uzbeks.

"He also has a lot of funding, and he has got some training schools for suicide bombers, and he does some recruitment. He creates a military response or maneuver just by doing such explosions here and there and he opts to put pressure on the government to relieve the military pressure we are applying here," said Khan.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

Interesting comments on Mehsud.

Gen. Tariq Khan also led the assault in South Waziristan against Mehsud in the days before the PPP led government came to power and enacted the peace deals again.

It was reportedly his success in those operations that brought him to the fore as a candidate for the IG FC position.

 

[ajpirzada]

interestin article. if that is really the policy then im quite confident that we will succeed

 

[fatman17]

IGFC also spent some time at CENTCOM HQ in Florida and his "western" views are well-liked by washington and the pentagon. he is no doubt a smart and intelligent officer!

what is now required is a sustained military operation to dismantle, disrupt and defeat these militants. dont give them time to re-group!

 

[sparten]

Oh for gods sake. Western views again! Tariq Khan has been known as an upcoming officer for years, as a battalion commander in Kargil, as a Brigade commander in FATA and later as GOC 14 Division in Operation Zalzala. He has been marked for great things since he was a yoiung officer, 25 or so years ago. He has been promoted because he is good.

 

[sparten]

It is also pertinant that he is a veteren (as a young officer) of the Baloch insurgency of the 70's and commanded a brigade in early 2004 in FATA. So unlike others, he knows CI, very well.

 

[S-2]

"...either deep inside the jungles of Nooristan..."

Sorta lost me on that one but an interesting discussion.

IGFC is, indeed, respected. Obviously not the most physically impressive but he's an interesting thinker with a COIN-attenuated mindset.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Oh for gods sake. Western views again! Tariq Khan has been known as an upcoming officer for years, as a battalion commander in Kargil, as a Brigade commander in FATA and later as GOC 14 Division in Operation Zalzala. He has been marked for great things since he was a yoiung officer, 25 or so years ago. He has been promoted because he is good.

I don't think FM was implying that his Western views got him promoted or appointed IGFC - I took his comments as just some background info about his experience.

 

[EyelessInGaza]

Pakistan goes its own pace on militants​

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ISLAMABAD - When is a peace deal not a peace deal? ..................

Khan, however, does not believe Bin Laden or Zawahiri were in the region when Pakistani forces moved in. "I know many people speculate about that, but I would like them to share intelligence, and then we would love to hunt them."

In terms of Pakistan's counter-insurgency prioritizes, one of the world's most wanted persons - Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud - rates low, although his network has caused major instability not only in NWFP but in the entire country. Some say he is the harbinger of the neo-Taliban's strength.

"Baitullah Mehsud is overrated," said Kahn. "Nobody has really gone into South Waziristan and sorted him out and when that happens, probably we will make a better assessment of his capacity. We have given him some importance in the area, and it has allowed him to acquire a kind of artificial leadership because whenever someone has trouble, they call him and he sends in some improvised-explosive-devise experts and a few rocket experts, who are Tajiks and Uzbeks.

"He also has a lot of funding, and he has got some training schools for suicide bombers, and he does some recruitment. He creates a military response or maneuver just by doing such explosions here and there and he opts to put pressure on the government to relieve the military pressure we are applying here," said Khan.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

Interesting comments on Mehsud.

Gen. Tariq Khan also led the assault in South Waziristan against Mehsud in the days before the PPP led government came to power and enacted the peace deals again.

It was reportedly his success in those operations that brought him to the fore as a candidate for the IG FC position.

We'll see. These quotes remind me of Operation Pawan and what some officers in the Indian army were then saying about 'sorting out' the LTTE. Or for that matter what army officers, probably since times immemorial, have been saying about militant fighters.

Off topic but the phrase "sorting out" reminded me of how some expressions and usage seems to persist in the Indian and Pakistan decades after the British left. "Sort him out", Bolshie", etc.

 

[sparten]

"...either deep inside the jungles of Nooristan..."

Sorta lost me on that one but an interesting discussion.

IGFC is, indeed, respected. Obviously not the most physically impressive but he's an interesting thinker with a COIN-attenuated mindset.

COIN is of course an unwelcome Americanism the term used in Pakistan is ISD; Internal Security Duties or often in speech "IS Duties".

The fact he has gotten as far as he has, what with his less than perfect physicue as well as his diciplinary record speaks volumes for how good he is.

 

[fatman17]

Sparten - lighten up man! we get your point!

 

[white_pawn]

The thing here is that US does whats good for them and not for Pakistan in most cases. So the best Pakistan (GOP & PA) has to do is the create a sence or feeling of security for the Citizens living in the area.

Talibans strategy is quite clear and simple, scare the **** out of ppls, and rule. So the best strategy GOP & PA can do is as is said in my first para.