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Pakistan in talks with Morgan Stanley to integrate her stock market (PSX) with MS's systems

Since Viper has gotten himself banned, i'll clarify

If he's been banned why am I still seeing him and this thread, which he started?

This change, if it was to happen, would mean that if I purchase the MS Emerging Market Index, a small portion of that index will be made up of Pakistani securities.

This is good news, but I thought investors can also purchase stocks of individual companies?
 
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Yeah, so I've had time to think and rationalize this news, and this just seems like a step to get into the emerging markets catagory, and leave the frontier markets behind.

The $500 billion is nothing more than a potential, it's not an exact figure, and Pakistan won't be getting this investment directly.

Basically, this is overhyped.

I was gonna write a long analysis about it, but there is literally no point.
 
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Basically, this is overhyped.

Sir, there is hype and overhype, and then there is flat out lying of the fantastic variety, decorated with unadulterated steaming fresh bullcrap. This exceeds even that description, by about two miles.

And yes, I have made this comment quite seriously.
 
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Since Viper has gotten himself banned, i'll clarify.

Morgan is considering adding PSX to their emerging markets index. This is slightly different from what Viper had stated. The latest news on this topic is below and there are still no indications of when a final decision may be reached.

This change, if it was to happen, would mean that if I purchase the MS Emerging Market Index, a small portion of that index will be made up of Pakistani securities.

Ishaq Dar reviews progress on draft Companies Bill 2016


Thank you for clarifying, but you are discussing a whole different issue all together. If you go to the post number 1 and 5 on this thread, you'll see some content that I copied over from that 1200 page document that I can't post. But its pretty easy to read and know that I am not that smart to make all that statistics crap up (I HATED statistics in college and barely passed it :rofl:, granted it was an 800 level course).

The following is taken from the post number 5 of this thread. If you read below, we are talking about "Dynamic Linking" of PSX (former KSE) to the global markets. I am sure we have MANY IT guys here, so they can tell you how systems link "Dynamically". That means, you can link systems in a way that they all have access to the SAME data. So I can buy stocks and ETF's here which may belong to Pakistan. Like how I invest into Brazilian stocks or South African ETF's. For example, UBB is a ticker symbol for Unibanco, SDA - Sadia S.A., (a refrigerated and frozen protein products company that also offers processed meats as well), ARA - (Aracruz Celulose S.A. - Paper company), etc.

So let's say, the systems get dynamically connected (like the world runs today between bigger stock exchanges and PSX is added to it), and then, say there is a stock called Dawood Cement (I think there is a company with that name). So the ticker symbol may be DAC.PK or DAC.PSX (just making this part up for reference purposes). So I can be sitting in the US, the UK, in Japan or China, etc, and I can buy this. The system will translate the price into Dollars or into my local currency (however each country regulates this).

And, this is not creating "Indices" with some element of Pakistani stocks. If you didn't know it, some Pakistani ETF's are already available through FTSE and they are expensive as hell due to awesome return they offer. Morgan Stanley ALREADY offers "PAK" which was around $ 14.00 and jumped up to $ 15 not to long ago. Its an index of some Pakistani stocks. We are talking about direct linkage between systems here.

The following research organizations are screaming Pakistani stocks higher futures. I personally am a member of Zacks. One of the best industry and market / stock investment insight and research is conducted by these guys. Seeking Alpha is the next one on the list of getting overall market insight.

Global X Surprises Investors with a Pakistan ETF - April 28, 2015 - Zacks.com

Pakistan's Weight In This ETF Is Set To Soar | Seeking Alpha

The Rise Of Pakistan: Industry Approach Is King - Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (NYSEARCA:PAK) | Seeking Alpha
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Below is copied content from post # 5, as you can see, we are talking about direct linking of markets. Not one or two funds.

Objective of the study
The focal objective of this study was to explore dynamic linkages between US, European,
Asian and Pakistan’s stock market which may be very useful for investors,financial
institutions and portfolio managers to utilize their capital across the border in an efficient
and smart manner.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sir, there is hype and overhype, and then there is flat out lying of the fantastic variety, decorated with unadulterated steaming fresh bullcrap. This exceeds even that description, by about two miles.

And yes, I have made this comment quite seriously.


I have never seen ONE post from you worth even responding to. You are a VERY negative person. Not sure how your family deals with it. You can tell a LOT about someone's posts and their personal life. Anyway, you want to call an Elephant, a Mouse, you can. I really could care less. But do read up to get an understanding of the basics.

Having read your posts from before, if the damn Elephamt came infront of you and introduced himself (like the post filled with facts above), you'd still call him a Mouse and will tell him he's wrong :rofl: :angel:. You almost act like our Indian adult-children on here when it comes to Pakistan making any progress in anything. Good luck with so much negativity!!
 
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Thank you for clarifying, but you are discussing a whole different issue all together. If you go to the post number 1 and 5 on this thread, you'll see some content that I copied over from that 1200 page document that I can't post. But its pretty easy to read and know that I am not that smart to make all that statistics crap up (I HATED statistics in college and barely passed it :rofl:, granted it was an 800 level course).

The following is taken from the post number 5 of this thread. If you read below, we are talking about "Dynamic Linking" of PSX (former KSE) to the global markets. I am sure we have MANY IT guys here, so they can tell you how systems link "Dynamically". That means, you can link systems in a way that they all have access to the SAME data. So I can buy stocks and ETF's here which may belong to Pakistan. Like how I invest into Brazilian stocks or South African ETF's. For example, UBB is a ticker symbol for Unibanco, SDA - Sadia S.A., (a refrigerated and frozen protein products company that also offers processed meats as well), ARA - (Aracruz Celulose S.A. - Paper company), etc.

So let's say, the systems get dynamically connected (like the world runs today between bigger stock exchanges and PSX is added to it), and then, say there is a stock called Dawood Cement (I think there is a company with that name). So the ticker symbol may be DAC.PK or DAC.PSX (just making this part up for reference purposes). So I can be sitting in the US, the UK, in Japan or China, etc, and I can buy this. The system will translate the price into Dollars or into my local currency (however each country regulates this).

And, this is not creating "Indices" with some element of Pakistani stocks. If you didn't know it, some Pakistani ETF's are already available through FTSE and they are expensive as hell due to awesome return they offer. Morgan Stanley ALREADY offers "PAK" which was around $ 14.00 and jumped up to $ 15 not to long ago. Its an index of some Pakistani stocks. We are talking about direct linkage between systems here.

The following research organizations are screaming Pakistani stocks higher futures. I personally am a member of Zacks. One of the best industry and market / stock investment insight and research is conducted by these guys. Seeking Alpha is the next one on the list of getting overall market insight.

Global X Surprises Investors with a Pakistan ETF - April 28, 2015 - Zacks.com

Pakistan's Weight In This ETF Is Set To Soar | Seeking Alpha

The Rise Of Pakistan: Industry Approach Is King - Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (NYSEARCA:PAK) | Seeking Alpha
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Below is copied content from post # 5, as you can see, we are talking about direct linking of markets. Not one or two funds.

Objective of the study
The focal objective of this study was to explore dynamic linkages between US, European,
Asian and Pakistan’s stock market which may be very useful for investors,financial
institutions and portfolio managers to utilize their capital across the border in an efficient
and smart manner.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Allow me to play devils advocate,

Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Reality and expectations are two different things, and even though this will bring significant investments into Pakistan, it will not reach as high as that $500 billion says, it's simply unprecedented. Such a high investment within such a short amount of time (5-7 years, you said), for the size of an economy like Pakistan (no matter how high the potential) is simply unrealistic.

@A.M. has a point, this is mainly in regards to Pakistan moving up to the emerging markets catagory, which was set to happen this year.

While this IS good news for Pakistan's economy, its not going to be anywhere near the level that you say has been predicted.
 
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Yeah, so I've had time to think and rationalize this news, and this just seems like a step to get into the emerging markets catagory, and leave the frontier markets behind.

The $500 billion is nothing more than a potential, it's not an exact figure, and Pakistan won't be getting this investment directly.

Basically, this is overhyped.

I was gonna write a long analysis about it, but there is literally no point.

Well anyone knowing global economies would know that Pakistan would come under the "emerging markets" categories as the links explain. But the $ 500 billion isn't a far fetched number. There are individual brokers (with interviews on youtube) who do ONE trade worth $ 500 MILLION (and they do many trades a day). So trading volume being $ 500 billion (meaning investments and active trades) isn't a big deal over the course of many years.

In fact, here is an example for JUST two stocks. BAC (Bank of America) has a volume of 87,746,819 below of shares. Each share is at $ 13.64. The other one is DUST and that's at $ 4.05* the volume (below). Just BAC alone means, the size of the volume in dollars means over $ 11 BILLION worth of transactions or holdings in volume just today. And I only listed two, you have over 15,000 different types of investments available!!!! Another stock, Apple (AAPL) traded at $ 101.78 today, its average volume is 48,043,900. Now price * volume = current market holdings / trading of over $ 4 TRILLION JUST for Apple and it can be every day as that's the size of the volume by per share price. I only gave you two / three examples. Imagine over 15,000 investment options and their size!!!!

SO $ 500 billion is really a joke to be honest. Just in FOREX, they trade over $ 2.5 TRILLION a day and in Stock Market's size is like $ 17 trillion or more at any given time with hundreds of billions of transactions going on daily. So we know Pakistan is smaller and an emerging market so it can't get to $ 2,3,4 or 5 trillion that quick obviously. But with Western investments, the size of PSX can EASILY grow to $ 500 billion. That's not an issue. The major issue is to keep a business friendly environment in Pakistan and no terrorism or intolerance!!

Symbol Company Name Price Change % Change Volume Chart
BAC Bank of America Corporation 13.64 -0.15 -1.09% 87,746,819
DUST Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X ETF 4.05 +0.45 +12.50% 63,975,118

Allow me to play devils advocate,

Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Reality and expectations are two different things, and even though this will bring significant investments into Pakistan, it will not reach as high as that $500 billion says, it's simply unprecedented. Such a high investment within such a short amount of time (5-7 years, you said), for the size of an economy like Pakistan (no matter how high the potential) is simply unrealistic..

Devil's don't come near Viper....too much risk of hazard to their poor being. So naturally, they stay away from my posts as I don't write science fiction. I am a numbers and facts guy and everything is calculated, including my headaches and hangovers :rofl: :enjoy:


Read my post above and my calculations and you'll probably get the idea. The devils should run away after reading the above. By the way, I've been a part of three crashes and recoveries and have seen 4 emerging markets go from 0 to Mach 1.....Pakistan is at about Mach .2.....going onto 1. Whether it takes 5-7 years as the document explained, OR, 10 years, it won't be much longer than that. I know it for a fact, Brazil, China, India are ALL examples of such "economic takeoff" :tup:

By the way, someone once said "don't second guess a running operation from an armed chair"......that applies on here. You have facts, examples (calculated which you can verify by googling yourself) and you've heard the overall strategy. Now if you want to second guess and butcher such critical development by marginalizing it, its because you are not a part of it and have never had experience at this level. So as a human, this may be a good opportunity to learn, vs. sounding like an enthusiasts and writing stuff you have no direct experience with (like creating and managing a strategy or a global economy). I am saying this with respect, so not trying to offend you. Sometimes, we should ALL just learn and absorb new stuff. Not counter it without having the experience.
 
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Devil's don't come near Viper....too much risk of hazard to their poor being. So naturally, they stay away from my posts as I don't write science fiction. I am a numbers and facts guy and everything is calculated, including my headaches and hangovers :rofl: :enjoy:


Read my post above and my calculations and you'll probably get the idea. The devils should run away after reading the above. By the way, I've been a part of three crashes and recoveries and have seen 4 emerging markets go from 0 to Mach 1.....Pakistan is at about Mach .2.....going onto 1. Whether it takes 5-7 years as the document explained, OR, 10 years, it won't be much longer than that. I know it for a fact, Brazil, China, India are ALL examples of such "economic takeoff" :tup:

By the way, someone once said "don't second guess a running operation from an armed chair"......that applies on here. You have facts, examples (calculated which you can verify by googling yourself) and you've heard the overall strategy. Now if you want to second guess and butcher such critical development by marginalizing it, its because you are not a part of it and have never had experience at this level. So as a human, this may be a good opportunity to learn, vs. sounding like an enthusiasts and writing stuff you have no direct experience with (like creating and managing a strategy or a global economy). I am saying this with respect, so not trying to offend you. Sometimes, we should ALL just learn and absorb new stuff. Not counter it without having the experience.

Fair enough, I can't argue with that...mostly because I just deleted most of my arguments accidentally, while editing my comment. You win by default :mad:
 
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Fair enough, I can't argue with that...mostly because I just deleted most of my arguments accidentally. You win by default :mad:

I actually read your arguments before you deleted them. So I'll answer anyway as there were some good points being raised, so I'd like to edu-macate you guys :cheers:

Btw, the following is a list of some Pakistani companies. Majority of these companies are worth a billion dollars or above 500-740 million dollars in the stock market. I know for a fact that Pakistan has over 100 companies who are big enough to have evaluations for over $ 1 billion each. That's, theoretically speaking means 100 Billion right there.

Now Pakistan's REAL economy is between $ 500-700 billion somewhere (adding the 40% ghost economy that the World Bank's been pissed about as such a big portion of businesses don't pay taxes). So to think that a $ 500 billion economy and 200 MILLION people population doesn't have 1000 companies, is stupid to begin with. So let's say for fun, we now know, there HAVE to be 100 companies which will be evaluated at $ 1 billion, then, there has to be smaller companies like 500 of them, which will be evaluated around $ 500-750 millions and another 200-300, which will be evaluated around $ 200 million. So let's take my hypothesis and say we add investor's dollars into it (this isn't true obviously, just making you go through a real exercise to evaluate an economy's worth), so if you calculate perceived evaluations, you can start to see how $ 500 billion is a joke to be honest.

If Pakistan didn't have terrorism and all, and it was an emerging market, you'd probably see that $ 500 billion number hitting in less than a year. Its not that big of a deal for organizations like Fidelity and Morgan Stanley. Fidelity was my client and its a private company. They manage over $ 2.5 TRILLION worth of investments. What's a $ 500 billion to them if the returns are good???? NOTHING!!

It was just announced by a couple of large financial institutes that they will be buying back some of their client stocks this quarter (3 months) worth $ 147 billion!!! And these guys already have trillions of portfolios. They look for good returns so their clients can make more $$$$. So again, $ 500 billion is a joke. I am almost positive, it might take till 2022 to hit this number (3-4 years post CPEC going live). But 10 years is the worst case scenario. Pakistan's economy should be well over $ 1 trillion by 2020.

Also, you should learn about Primary vs. Secondary markets, Market Evaluations and IPO's, to gain some real understanding of how this works.

List of companies of Pakistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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There is nothing to go gung ho. Like many financial institutions Morgan Stanley too has its own Index fund. Now if PSX is included into Morgan Stanley's emerging market fund index, means that any investor buying a stock in Morgan Stanley Index fund has a small portion of his investment invested in Pakistani stocks. However, the good thing for Pakistan is that Morgan Stanley believes that Pakistan economy is stable enough to be included into its emerging market index.
 
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There is nothing to go gung ho. Like many financial institutions Morgan Stanley too has its own Index fund. Now if PSX is included into Morgan Stanley's emerging market fund index, means that any investor buying a stock in Morgan Stanley Index fund has a small portion of his investment invested in Pakistani stocks. However, the good thing for Pakistan is that Morgan Stanley believes that Pakistan economy is stable enough to be included into its emerging market index.

Where exactly did you read that MS was trying to "Create an Index" for Pakistan? Many indices already exist, including one by MSI called "PAK". And there are Pakistani ETF's going all the way to $ 3000.00 per ETF (way above Google and Amazon and Apple). You and I had that debate not to long ago....and you forgot the embarrassment already :enjoy: :angel:.

The topic here is integrating Pakistan's stock exchange with NYSE and others. MS is playing system integrator and a subject matter expert as they already have experience in investing within Pakistani funds like PAK and other ETF's. Hope I clarified you. Read the entire topic, don't marginalize because of your flags. My topics are for people and I don't look at flags.
 
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Where exactly did you read that MS was trying to "Create an Index" for Pakistan? Many indices already exist, including one by MSI called "PAK". And there are Pakistani ETF's going all the way to $ 3000.00 per ETF (way above Google and Amazon and Apple). You and I had that debate not to long ago....and you forgot the embarrassment already :enjoy: :angel:.

The topic here is integrating Pakistan's stock exchange with NYSE and others. MS is playing system integrator and a subject matter expert as they already have experience in investing within Pakistani funds like PAK and other ETF's. Hope I clarified you. Read the entire topic, don't marginalize because of your flags. My topics are for people and I don't look at flags.

What did I post, and what is your response. Is there any relationship?

Moreover, where did ETF came here??? And how can you integrate NYSE with PSX. And how come Morgan Stanley can play integrator?
 
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What did I post, and what is your response. Is there any relationship?

Moreover, where did ETF came here??? And how can you integrate NYSE with PSX. And how come Morgan Stanley can play integrator?

WOW, you can ask real questions instead of writing gossip against Pakistan? I am IMPRESSED for once. Bravo Sir. The Sun must've come out of the South today and I missed the world changing event :enjoy:

The real question isn't what you are asking about my answer's relationship to your post. The real question WAS in my post. That did you care to read the thread? And where did it say that MSI was trying to creade an "Index" of Pakistani funds as its becoming an emerging market? I think the Monkey the Russians sent to the space for experiments 5 years ago, knows that Pakistan is an emerging market. There is nothing new. The index offered by MSI already exists ticker symbol "PAK" and its around $ 15 ish.

So my question that you didn't answer, and instead wrote this post, was, why did you marginalize the thread's topic to creation of an Index, when the topic was the integration of stock markets like FTSE, NYSE, Nikkei, etc?

EFT's came in as an example that there are indexes etf's and other means of investing into Pakistan's PSX right now, offered by various European and British markets like FTSE, and DAX, etc.

How can one integrate markets? Just like the others were integrated for decades now :rofl:

MSI has a lot of experience with Pakistani systems, trading and all. MSI provides market consulting services, all the way to technical integration services. I actually have multiple friends who work in that capacity and go to different countries all the time. So MSI, having experience with the Pakistani system (actually they provided consulting services to Pakistanis in how to design their system for PSX), and then having functional understanding of the Pakistani securities, etc, helps in leading integration projects with other markets.
 
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WOW, you can ask real questions instead of writing gossip against Pakistan? I am IMPRESSED for once. Bravo Sir. The Sun must've come out of the South today and I missed the world changing event :enjoy:

The real question isn't what you are asking about my answer's relationship to your post. The real question WAS in my post. That did you care to read the thread? And where did it say that MSI was trying to creade an "Index" of Pakistani funds as its becoming an emerging market? I think the Monkey the Russians sent to the space for experiments 5 years ago, knows that Pakistan is an emerging market. There is nothing new. The index offered by MSI already exists ticker symbol "PAK" and its around $ 15 ish.

So my question that you didn't answer, and instead wrote this post, was, why did you marginalize the thread's topic to creation of an Index, when the topic was the integration of stock markets like FTSE, NYSE, Nikkei, etc?

EFT's came in as an example that there are indexes etf's and other means of investing into Pakistan's PSX right now, offered by various European and British markets like FTSE, and DAX, etc.

How can one integrate markets? Just like the others were integrated for decades now :rofl:

MSI has a lot of experience with Pakistani systems, trading and all. MSI provides market consulting services, all the way to technical integration services. I actually have multiple friends who work in that capacity and go to different countries all the time. So MSI, having experience with the Pakistani system (actually they provided consulting services to Pakistanis in how to design their system for PSX), and then having functional understanding of the Pakistani securities, etc, helps in leading integration projects with other markets.

You know a little bit and then you add whatever comes to your mind to show that you are an expert in the subject. The above posts of your make no sense. There is no such thing as stock market integration. One Stock Index can acquire another, but that is it..nothing more and nothing less. They operate independently and are under the watch dog of their respective governments. And Morgan Stanley is a small fly in the whole investment world, and it is beyond the capabilities of Morgan Stanley to do what you are saying.
 
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You know a little bit and then you add whatever comes to your mind to show that you are an expert in the subject. The above posts of your make no sense. There is no such thing as stock market integration. One Stock Index can acquire another, but that is it..nothing more and nothing less. They operate independently and are under the watch dog of their respective governments. And Morgan Stanley is a small fly in the whole investment world, and it is beyond the capabilities of Morgan Stanley to do what you are saying.

I can tell you which way the market is headed tomorrow, whether bullish or bearish, by looking at three variables that you've probably not seen to be honest with you. Morgan Stanley isn't even a fly in the investment world, yet you called them a little fly. They are the Tata's of the investment companies, tiny and small when it comes to comparing with the entire globe. But like Tata motors and consulting, they want to to "look big" :rofl:, so they were one of the first few ones to focus on foreign market indexes, while Lehman, Berkshire and Goldman's of the world, focused on setting up emerging markets and BRICS primarily.

But in this case, we are on a subject with respect to Pakistan, that subject involves Morgan Stanley right now and that's it. I don't care how much I know or have done. I'd like to stay focused on the scope!! I'd share with you that Lehman and Goldman Sachs, along with a few others, are very interested about Pakistan. Starting from investing into funds.

And on market integration, you have no effing idea how it works. Let's keep your speculations to yourself. And the funny thing is, there are no books on this subject and only people who've done things at that scale, know this business that deep. Just so you know, Indices RUN on INDUSTRY or SECTORS (like SPIDER indices like SPX, SPY, etc). They have NOTHING to do with market integration. Market integration is when a super computer running in Chicago (CTX's offices) or at Barclays / NYSE, looks up in a fraction of a mili-second Pakistani securities per some broker's request and shows him the availability and buy-ask prices and suggests where to bid. That broker than books billions of dollars worth of trades if they wanted to, on the fly, in a mili-second and bam, millions of shares out of the available volume are booked and removed from the available bucket. And that target system where the booking takes place, may be sitting in London (FTSE), or in Islamabad or in Nikkei's Japanese offices. :welcome: to Futures Trading and Big Data based algorithmic trading :enjoy:.
 
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So the American fund managers and investors can directly buy our stocks.

Good Move.
 
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