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Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

Here's an ET story on a German poll results in Pakistan:

ISLAMABAD: A survey done by a German company has said that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will continue to lead at the ballot box at the next elections.

The survey by Heinrich Boll Stiftung showed that 29 per cent of the people surveyed would support the PPP, the highest number for any political party surveyed by the company.

Nearly 25 per cent said they would support the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Another 20 per cent supported the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan.

Citing strong polling figures for the PTI, the survey also noted that the post election government would have to stand up to a strong political opposition.

In the 2008 elections that were boycotted by the Pakistan-Tehreek-I-Insaf (PTI) under the leadership of Imran Khan, the PPP won 30.8 per cent of votes, while the PML-N came second with 23.1 per cent.

This survey is in sharp contrast with the last IRI survey that was done on 4,997 people, 32 per cent of whom preferred the PML-N as preferred majority party in the federal parliament.

This figure was up from 28 per cent from the last survey that the agency conducted over two months in July and August last year.

PPP to lead in the polls: Survey – The Express Tribune

this poll should actually be a breather for PTI fan boys for its not painting a grim scenario like 42% to 14% to PTI, which means the PTI has good chance to take a lead here

Here is the prediction for Pakistan elections 2013.
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What is going to happpend to all these looootas?
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lol who made these figures? APML 23 seats?? thats dreaming stuff now, not even bothered to talk about PTI, MQM will even pick provincial seats for balochistan, KP and punjab? :lol: thats also dreaming,
 
Here's a Daily Telegraph story on Bhutto vs Sharif, the next generation of Pak politicians:

ONE studied at Oxford, the other at Cambridge. Their family rivalry dates back almost 40 years, to when the family of one saw their business empire ravaged by the nationalisation policy of the other.

But what Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari have in common is being young, glamorous and heirs to Pakistan's two leading political dynasties. Both will be prominent voices due in general elections due in May.

The poetry-loving Ms Sharif is the daughter of Nawaz Sharif, a wealthy industrialist from the Punjabi city of Lahore, who fell out with Bilawal's late grandfather, Zulfiqar Bhutto, after he nationalised the Sharif businesses as Pakistan's socialist leader in the 1970s.

Himself a two-time prime minister, Mr Sharif is frontrunner to emerge with the largest party and the first crack at forming a coalition after the polls of Pakistan's 80 million voters.

During the campaign, his daughter is acting as one of his chief campaigners and mouthpieces - particularly on women's rights - and is expected to eventually succeed him one day.

"His legacy is beautiful," she told an interviewer last year. "Who would not want to step into those shoes?"

A party insider added: "She has grown very close to her father and you can see her learning from him."

Already on a similar path is Oxford-educated Bilawal, 24, who became the third generation of Bhuttos to lead the Pakistan People's Party after his mother, Benazir, was assassinated in December 2007.

Pakistan's national assembly had only a scattering of members present on Thursday when it quietly dissolved itself at the end of its five-year term. It was a historic moment. If elections go to plan then Pakistan will see the first democratic transition of power in its 65-year history, a period marked by political instability and three military coups.

Bilawal's father, Asif Ali Zardari, has been president of Pakistan since 2008, when he was catapulted into the political limelight after the assassination of his wife, Benazir. She was killed in a suicide attack as she campaigned for a third stint as prime minister.

At 24, he is still too young to stand in elections, but a constituency is waiting for him, reportedly the troubled neighbourhood of Lyari in Karachi, as a twenty-fifth birthday present.
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Last year, Hina Rabbani Khar, the country's glamorous foreign minister, was forced to deny she was having an affair with the president's son, a rumour that some claimed was part of a smear campaign run by the military.

Bilawal's fans hope he will restore his mother's party to its traditional compassionate, leftist position, but fear his privileged upbringing and foreign education have disconnected him from ordinary voters. His late mother, they say, would also have made sure he had a firmer grasp of Urdu.

Naheed Khan, who was close to Mrs Bhutto, said Bilawal risked being exposed too early if he was expected to defend his father's unpopular government.

"He has to take a very clear decision, whether he wants to carry his grandfather and grandmother's legacy or he wants to go along with his father and what his father has done in five years," she said.

Whoever wins in elections, one thing seems certain: Pakistan's political dynasties show few signs of fading away.

Bhutto vs Sharif, Oxford vs Cambridge, as Pakistan's young pretenders go head to head - Telegraph
 
@^ no mention of Hamza, someone who is in active politics since 1994 :undecided:
 
PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan makes history by becoming the first-ever elected government to complete its term. PML (N) appears to be leading in pre-election polls amidst rising violence against Christians and Shias blamed on its leadership. How will the rising violence impact conduct of elections? Who will lead the caretaker administration? Watch the show to find out.

 
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UPDATE:

PML (N) may end up with the largest number of seats but it probably will not be able to put together a coalition.

This will likely open up an opportunity for the PPP to form the next govt. So there's very little chance of better governance in the next 5 years.

Imran Khan (PTI) will most likely sit in the opposition with 30-40 seats....a substantial number to be able to influence laws and policies.

Haq's Musings: Taliban vs. Pakistan in Elections 2013
 
The following blog post and the TV show were recorded in Aug 2012 before the Taliban started to selectively attack PPP, ANP, and MQM. Since then, ANP's chances have significantly diminished but PPP and MQM still remain strong in their respective strongholds. The PPP-MQM-ANP bloc can still prevail and form the next govt because the right-wing (PML N, JI, JUI, and I include PTI in that as well) in Pakistan is deeply divided with each party fielding candidates against others.


Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013
 
If the result goes as I predict with PTI getting 30-40 seats (substantial in my view), then I fear that Imran Khan's folks will cry foul. But it'll be a test of IK's leadership to cool tempers and work to improve the system and hope that the next election could make PTI a big winner.
 
Here's my prediction for the election:

After reading several newspaper reports on the elections, viewpoints of political analysts, editorials, watching countless TV shows (thanks to Jadoo TV :D ), and talking to family and friends back in Pakistan, I strongly believe we are again heading for a hung parliament, as I don't believe any political party will be able to win a simple majority (172 seats needed) let alone two third majority (228 seats needed).

In my opinion, N-PML is the frontrunner (can win between 80 to 120 seats )followed by the PTI ( 40 to 90 seats) and PPP (35 to 70 seats).

Note: there are 272 national assembly seats and in addition there are 70 seats reserved for women (60 seats) and minorities (10 seats), in total, 342 seats.
 
I congratulate PML (N) on its victory and I welcome the emergence of PTI as a third force in Pakistani politics. It has come from nowhere to become the second largest party in National Assembly and the new governing party in KP. It has the potential to transform the future of Pakistan if PTI does well in governing KP and forces change at the center to bring in much needed reforms. It's a big test of PTI and and a great hope for Pakistan.
 
I congratulate PML (N) on its victory and I welcome the emergence of PTI as a third force in Pakistani politics. It has come from nowhere to become the second largest party in National Assembly and the new governing party in KP. It has the potential to transform the future of Pakistan if PTI does well in governing KP and forces change at the center to bring in much needed reforms. It's a big test of PTI and and a great hope for Pakistan.

and where is no 1(ACCORDING TO YOUR PREDICTION) PPP ?
 
I updated these predictions which were made in August 2012, well before the Taliban started to selectively attack PPP, ANP, and MQM. PPP and ANP were unable to campaign because of threats while PML (N) ad PTI were free to campaign.

Here's my recent forecast which I made just before before the election:

Haq's Musings: Who Will Win Pak Elections 2013 and Lead Next Government?

People thoughts these attacks on ANP, MQM and PPP will earn them more votes

but it was really bad day for ANP
 
I congratulate brave Pakistanis who defied Taliban's threats of violence to come out ad vote with 60% turn-out, much higher than the 44% in 2008. If the governance of PPP and ANP had been better, the results would not be so negative for them. This should serve as a warning to PML(N) to perform or else...
 
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