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Pakistan draws up plan to add 74,448 MW to national grid by 2040

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Pakistan draws up plan to add 74,448 MW to national grid by 2040

In around 20 years, 120 new power projects will be developed

Pakistan cannot accelerate economic growth without a robust power production and supply system in place.

Therefore, it has chalked out a comprehensive plan to develop 120 new power projects in a bid to add 74,448 megawatts of production capacity to the system till 2040, mostly from hydel, domestic coal and renewable sources including wind and solar.

“In the year 2040, the nominal production capacity in the system will stand at 98,091 MW against projected peak load (demand) of 80,425 MW,” the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) said in a study titled “Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2018-40”. In 2018, the nominal capacity and demand matched quite closely as the nominal capacity from all generation sources hovered around 27,715 MW whereas the demand was close to 26,700 MW.

In 2019, the gap between nominal capacity and demand is steadily widening and has started surpassing the peak load in the system. It can be observed that a significant surplus of around 17,600MW remains between the projected demand and installed capacity, according to the study. Sufficient generation has been planned to be added by 2040 to satisfy the 1% LOLP (loss of load probability) criteria and add sufficient reserves to the system.

The cumulative nominal capacity will be approximately 62,979 MW whereas the peak load is projected at 50,306MW in the year 2032, thus a wide gap of around 13,000MW between the two parameters and the capacity will be in surplus compared to demand, according to the study.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has uploaded the comprehensive study on its website to invite the stakeholders and public feedback, incorporate their concerns, if any, and give final shape to the document.

Forthcoming power projects

With regard to hydroelectric power projects, it is observed that no such project has been selected for the first two years – 2018 and 2019.

The first hydroelectric power project selected by the model is Matiltan, which is an 84 MW run-of-the-river power plant envisaged to be commissioned in the year 2020, according to the study. Various other run-of-the-river power plants follow it, among which the commissioning of the 2,160 MW Dasu stage-I project in the year 2025 is worth mentioning. Moving forward, the first reservoir-based hydroelectric power plant ie Mohmand Dam is also proposed to be commissioned in the year 2025.

Similarly, the year 2028 will see another reservoir-based mega project – Diamer Bhasha hydroelectric power project with a production capacity of 4,500 MW. “By the year 2040, the total share of hydro in the upcoming generation additions will be approximately 25,047 MW,” the report said.

As far as Thar coal power plants are concerned, the model has selected no power plant until the year 2032. However, after 2032, a series of Thar coal-based power plants have been selected and by the year 2040, a total of 36 units will be brought to the system with a cumulative capacity of 23,760 MW, according to the study. In addition to the above-mentioned technologies, only one gas turbine of 400 MW based on imported gas/LNG has been selected by the model for the year 2040.

“It is pertinent to mention that neither any combined-cycle power plant on imported gas/LNG nor any nuclear power plant is selected by the model during the whole course of study period ie 2018-2040,” it said.

As far as renewables are concerned, a total capacity of 6,000 MW and 7,000 MW will be available from solar and wind power plants respectively.

“The first block of 500 MW of wind and 400 MW of solar power plants will hit the ground in the year 2022, followed by 13 more blocks of wind and 14 blocks of solar plants till 2040,” it said
 
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That is an enormous amount of Energy if Electricity was conserved properly

a) High-efficiency light bulks
b) Solar lights for roads in the night
c) Conservation of energy with high-efficiency Refrigerators

We may not need that much electricity

We do need Industries to start using Electric turbines instead of gas or petrol
 
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No matter how many power projects you ambitiously start up, two things will guarantee power shortages in Pakistan.

1. Swindling funds by management of power suppliers group, national power suppliers, technicians and kunda system.

2. Corrupt management of spare parts sold off in the black market for profiteering and replacing those parts with knock-off parts.

Efficiency in power supply is key to providing round the clock power, all over the country. So long as corrupt people exist, the problem will persist. Either have a Chinese style "Purge" of all corrupt b@$t@rds or have a robust, honest, hard-hitting management to run operations proficiently.
 
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