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Last week Pakistan gave a clear win to a new party Muslim League (N) and new leader Nawaz Sharif, 63, to lead the country. This win came after a turbulent decade that saw military coups, assassinations, unprecedented sectarian violence and widespread corruption.
Although the polling was marred by violence, attributed largely to Pakistans Taleban and their supporters, it was significant in several respects, but chief among them was the fact that it was the first time in Pakistan that a political transition took place between two democratically elected governments. In the past, democratic rule was frequently interrupted by coups d'état.
On the economic front, Pakistans early promise was replaced by despair and poverty. Decades ago, economists expected Pakistans performance to surpass that of India or other neighboring countries because it maintained from the beginning an edge. For example, Pakistan never had the crippling caste system that India still endures and does not seem able to shake off. Nor did Pakistan, with the possible exception of the city of Karachi, experience the extreme poverty that some Indian cities and towns suffered.
In addition, Pakistanis enjoyed a relatively better standard of living than their Indian neighbors. As shown in the comparative statistics published by the International Monetary Fund, the per capita income of Pakistan was until recently significantly higher than that of India. In 1970, for example, Pakistans per capita income (at $ 182) was, or (50) percent higher than that of India (at $ 121).
However, the edge that Pakistan had then kept getting eroded gradually. In 1980, Pakistans per capita income was $ 347 to Indias $ 266, still (30) percent higher. In 1990, Pakistanis income was on average $ 447, to Indias $384, or only (17) percent higher.
During the following decade India was able to bridge the income gap and surpass Pakistan, a trend that is still continuing. The new millennium brought with it special challenges to Pakistan, as it became a battleground between the Taleban and the United States. Its economic performance suffered compared to Indias, making it possible for the latter to outperform Pakistan in per capita income for the first time.
In 2007, there was near parity in per capita income of the two competitors. However, in 2008, Indias per capita income reached $ 1081, or (12) percent higher than Pakistans. That trend continued until today. Indias per capita has continued to grow more briskly. In 2013, IMF expects Indias per capita income to reach $ 1583, or (18) percent higher than Pakistans expected $ 1342. In 2017, it expects Pakistans income to rise to only $ 1515, just (68) percent of Indias expected income of $ 2226.
It is not difficult to see how Pakistan descended into its current economic condition. A toxic combination has made it nearly impossible for Pakistan to grow out of poverty and chaos. Foreign investors were scared away and many Pakistanis, who could, moved to greener and safer pastures abroad, in neighboring countries and far afield. Those who fled included the newly elected leader and the two previous leaders.
Autocratic military rule, violent extremism, sectarian violence, corruption and nepotism have become endemic in Pakistan during the past two administrations.
In March 2007, during a visit to Pakistan, I witnessed some of the self-inflicted injuries that have crippled Pakistan. On March 9, 2007, our last day in Pakistan, then-President Pervez Musharraf fired the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, for challenging his authority. We were stunned, as Pakistan, despite its many problems, still enjoyed a highly respected judicial system, especially the Supreme Court. That unprecedented move, as we know, eventually backfired, leading to Musharrafs own ouster in November 2007.
While the Musharraf reign raised military rule to new heights, the outgoing administration was widely accused of systematizing corruption. Some of its key officials were officially accused of corruption and prevented from traveling outside the country. Transparency International ranks Pakistan near the top, 33 out of 176 counties. Other watchdog organizations, both in Pakistan and abroad, estimated that hundreds of billions were siphoned off Pakistans public coffers over the past decade.
Extremists of all stripes wreaked havoc Pakistan. Especially disturbing were sectarian-based attacks on religious minorities, especially Shiites and Christians. Violent extremists were routinely indiscriminate, targeting places of worship, public markets, hotels and public transportation. Thousands of innocent Pakistanis were butchered in these senseless attacks. Naturally, the economy suffered as a result, as investors, both Pakistanis and foreign fled the country.
The United States' heavy-handed approach to the Talebans sympathizers made matters worse for the image for Pakistans investment climate, to say the least. Nor did the US make up for that by increasing its economic assistance or investment in Pakistan.
Any of these challenges would be daunting to any incoming leader. It would not be an understatement to see that we are witnessing a historical moment: either Pakistan will be able to pull itself out of the morass in which it has fallen during the past decade, or else many Pakistanis may doubt the ability of their country to survive.
Fortunately, However, Nawaz Sharif now has a strong popular mandate to undertake major steps to restore Pakistans stability and security, and to take it on the path of economic prosperity. In addition, he has gained enough experience in the government and outside it to implement that mandate.
His ouster from power, the failings of his past rule, his struggle with former strongman Musharraf, and his exile must have made it clear the pitfalls and limits of power in Pakistan.
Pakistan at a crossroads
http://www.arabnews.com/node/452110
Although the polling was marred by violence, attributed largely to Pakistans Taleban and their supporters, it was significant in several respects, but chief among them was the fact that it was the first time in Pakistan that a political transition took place between two democratically elected governments. In the past, democratic rule was frequently interrupted by coups d'état.
On the economic front, Pakistans early promise was replaced by despair and poverty. Decades ago, economists expected Pakistans performance to surpass that of India or other neighboring countries because it maintained from the beginning an edge. For example, Pakistan never had the crippling caste system that India still endures and does not seem able to shake off. Nor did Pakistan, with the possible exception of the city of Karachi, experience the extreme poverty that some Indian cities and towns suffered.
In addition, Pakistanis enjoyed a relatively better standard of living than their Indian neighbors. As shown in the comparative statistics published by the International Monetary Fund, the per capita income of Pakistan was until recently significantly higher than that of India. In 1970, for example, Pakistans per capita income (at $ 182) was, or (50) percent higher than that of India (at $ 121).
However, the edge that Pakistan had then kept getting eroded gradually. In 1980, Pakistans per capita income was $ 347 to Indias $ 266, still (30) percent higher. In 1990, Pakistanis income was on average $ 447, to Indias $384, or only (17) percent higher.
During the following decade India was able to bridge the income gap and surpass Pakistan, a trend that is still continuing. The new millennium brought with it special challenges to Pakistan, as it became a battleground between the Taleban and the United States. Its economic performance suffered compared to Indias, making it possible for the latter to outperform Pakistan in per capita income for the first time.
In 2007, there was near parity in per capita income of the two competitors. However, in 2008, Indias per capita income reached $ 1081, or (12) percent higher than Pakistans. That trend continued until today. Indias per capita has continued to grow more briskly. In 2013, IMF expects Indias per capita income to reach $ 1583, or (18) percent higher than Pakistans expected $ 1342. In 2017, it expects Pakistans income to rise to only $ 1515, just (68) percent of Indias expected income of $ 2226.
It is not difficult to see how Pakistan descended into its current economic condition. A toxic combination has made it nearly impossible for Pakistan to grow out of poverty and chaos. Foreign investors were scared away and many Pakistanis, who could, moved to greener and safer pastures abroad, in neighboring countries and far afield. Those who fled included the newly elected leader and the two previous leaders.
Autocratic military rule, violent extremism, sectarian violence, corruption and nepotism have become endemic in Pakistan during the past two administrations.
In March 2007, during a visit to Pakistan, I witnessed some of the self-inflicted injuries that have crippled Pakistan. On March 9, 2007, our last day in Pakistan, then-President Pervez Musharraf fired the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, for challenging his authority. We were stunned, as Pakistan, despite its many problems, still enjoyed a highly respected judicial system, especially the Supreme Court. That unprecedented move, as we know, eventually backfired, leading to Musharrafs own ouster in November 2007.
While the Musharraf reign raised military rule to new heights, the outgoing administration was widely accused of systematizing corruption. Some of its key officials were officially accused of corruption and prevented from traveling outside the country. Transparency International ranks Pakistan near the top, 33 out of 176 counties. Other watchdog organizations, both in Pakistan and abroad, estimated that hundreds of billions were siphoned off Pakistans public coffers over the past decade.
Extremists of all stripes wreaked havoc Pakistan. Especially disturbing were sectarian-based attacks on religious minorities, especially Shiites and Christians. Violent extremists were routinely indiscriminate, targeting places of worship, public markets, hotels and public transportation. Thousands of innocent Pakistanis were butchered in these senseless attacks. Naturally, the economy suffered as a result, as investors, both Pakistanis and foreign fled the country.
The United States' heavy-handed approach to the Talebans sympathizers made matters worse for the image for Pakistans investment climate, to say the least. Nor did the US make up for that by increasing its economic assistance or investment in Pakistan.
Any of these challenges would be daunting to any incoming leader. It would not be an understatement to see that we are witnessing a historical moment: either Pakistan will be able to pull itself out of the morass in which it has fallen during the past decade, or else many Pakistanis may doubt the ability of their country to survive.
Fortunately, However, Nawaz Sharif now has a strong popular mandate to undertake major steps to restore Pakistans stability and security, and to take it on the path of economic prosperity. In addition, he has gained enough experience in the government and outside it to implement that mandate.
His ouster from power, the failings of his past rule, his struggle with former strongman Musharraf, and his exile must have made it clear the pitfalls and limits of power in Pakistan.
Pakistan at a crossroads
http://www.arabnews.com/node/452110
